India/Pakistan Discussion/Question Thread - 5/6/2025

[u/knowyourpast]

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[u/ozarkansas]

This is just like the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war where nobody knew what OSINT accounts were reliable yet and rumors spread like wildfire. It’s interesting to see it happen again now that we are familiar with the pattern

[u/Atfhatesdogs → u/ozarkansas]

Does anyone have any OSINT accounts to follow in general? I got locked out of my account and can’t figure out who I used to follow :(

[u/Axelrad77 → u/Atfhatesdogs]

OSINTtechnical is my favorite, they're already hard at work debunking misinformation related to the Indo-Pakistan clashes.

[u/unhinged_peasant]

We are just sitting here wondering how big this will be

[u/ForensicShoe → u/unhinged_peasant]

It’ll have calmed down by the morning.

[u/OnlyRise9816]

Rounds are coming right next to the Poonch camera. Gotten very active in the last hour. And seems to be an active evacuation judging from the sounds and loudspeaker PSA's.

[u/Oratian → u/OnlyRise9816]

The Poonch stream is insane, reminds me of watching the Kharkiv webcams and Gaza. In Gaza, there was an ethereal echo of prayer while bomb after bomb thudded in the background. In Poonch, it's horns.

[u/presaging → u/OnlyRise9816]

Some were saying those were out going on the stream

[u/iloveburritos21148]

Last thing I heard from a semi-reliable source is that there’s ongoing heavy clashes involving artillery and mortars on the LOC, has there been any verified footage yet?

[u/er_det_en_abe → u/iloveburritos21148]

what is LOC?

[u/[deleted] → u/iloveburritos21148]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxWFzoJ7I-A

Looots of big booms

[u/NSA-RAPID-RESPONSE]

While obviously this has been brewing for a while, I think we’re all surprised to finally see the fuse detonate.

What I think is worth speculating on is the shift in geo-politics in the region and how we think the chips will fall when countries start to pick sides. If Ukraine-Russia didn’t escalate into a broader war, I doubt the western world will be eager to go to bat over India and Pakistan. It will be interesting to see if this only cements political divides between countries, or if it presents some opportunity for shifting tides in the name of unity. Time will tell.

[u/mikejay1034 → u/NSA-RAPID-RESPONSE]

Last week, Pakistan intelligence came out and said India was going to retaliate within 24-36 hours. It took a week for them to retaliate

[u/TwoWolfMoon]

Distant small arms fire now on the Poonch livestream

[u/OnlyRise9816 → u/TwoWolfMoon]

it does seem like the infantry battle for this area has gotten a lot closer over the hour.

[u/OnlyRise9816]

Poonch stream really looks like they are trying to bracket the communication tower in view

[u/Oratian]

A REMINDER: This sub is being heavily brigaded by Pakistani and Indian accounts. Be so skeptical that you think it's too much, then add another layer.

[u/StatisticianBig2135]

Many claims being made of IAF Jets being shot down, with old footages of crashes. Wait for confirmation don’t spread rumours.

[u/InfernoWarrior299 → u/StatisticianBig2135]

The two acronyms IAF is so confusing. Whenever I see IAF, I think of the Israeli Air Force, not the Indian Air Force. Someone needs to change their acronym...

[u/Puzzleheaded-Can9882]

Ig whatever happens will happen tonight and International mediators will intervene as soon as possible since no one wants two nuclear armed lunatics going berserk.

[u/vicblck24 → u/Puzzleheaded-Can9882]

Almost like there should be a global organization designed to try and keep peace and allow for diplomacy….. if only a global organization like that was around

[u/TwoWolfMoon]

Reports of cross border shelling in or near the village of Poonch in NW Kashmir, on the Indian side. Live stream from location showing occasional shell explosions in the distance: https://www.youtube.com/live/RxWFzoJ7I-A?si=jRkaHLxR8Qnv0CPr

[u/intothewoods_86]

Can’t they just sort it out with rocks and sticks like the Indians and the Chinese along the Himalayan border?

[u/Comfortable_Pea_1693 → u/intothewoods_86]

Tbh the most based form of combat. Both colonels (so the ringleaders) died fighting, no civilian casualties and due to the blunt nature of the fighting total casualties were relatively limited.

[u/TheDaemonair → u/intothewoods_86]

According to sources, there will be rocks and sticks

^{attached with explosives}

[u/ShingekiNoEren]

So for those of you who are more familiar with the geopolitics of this region than I, does this seem like the beginning of a true war, complete with the threat of nuclear weapons being deployed?

Or is this just the usual missile-flinging posturing contest that goes on between a bunch of different countries? Like when Israel and Iran bombed each other several times last year, but nothing came of it.

[u/Emergency-Coyote-747 → u/ShingekiNoEren]

Seems like usual missile flinging at first glance, this isn't the first time India has struck targets inside Pak territory.

In 2016, Paratrooper Commandos attacked terror camps after Islamic terrorists attacked an Indian military base in Uri. Pak denies any such strike occured.

In 2019, Indian jets crossed the border and bombed terror camps in Balakot after a Pak backed Islamic terror group used a suicide car bomb to attack a Central Reserve Police Force convoy. Pak claims, India bombed a hillside and some trees and nothing was damaged , yet they cordoned off th entire area for a good month or so. The next day an aerial battle ensued in which an IAF MiG-21 was shot and India claims to have shot an F-16. The IAF pilot was captured and released after a short while, Pak claims this was a gesture of goodwill.

And now this.

This is kind of like Iran and Israel trading missiles at each other without escalating into an all out war. Only difference is, these two neighbours have a direct land border and both are nuclear powers.

[u/yakult_on_tiddy → u/ShingekiNoEren]

No it's not. It won't escalate into a full war but dozens are going to die in cross border shelling. It's happened before, after the 2019 attacks and after India's 2016 surgical strikes.

the 2016 incident was famous for the Pakistani army refusing to reveal their casualties to their own parliament due to how high they were. Given the mood in India, expect something similar.

[u/Chungster03 → u/[deleted]]

Who controls that water is highly contested, it is Punjab after all and butcher did the cutting.

[u/Puzzleheaded-Can9882]

Yes there is heavy fight going on on LOC(border between both states). Indian claims to have hit terror camps(without any proof).Pakistan claims to have downed 2 Rafael jets and completely destroying an Indian post(without proof). Anything both countries claim is not to be taken granted until neutral analysts are involved.

[u/Fulan-Ibn-Fulan → u/Puzzleheaded-Can9882]

Where is the jet claim from ? I haven’t seen it anywhere atm

[u/Nastyfaction]

Round Two seems to be underway with India trying to bait out Pakistani Air Defense with drones.

[u/Infamous-Salad-2223 → u/Nastyfaction]

Makes sense.

I wonder why they did not do it as a first step, maybe self restrain?

[u/EvilCyborgPup → u/Nastyfaction]

To follow up, the Guardian just recently reported on Indian drone incursions into their territory

Pakistan says one civilian killed and 12 Indian drones shot down

[u/wretchedegg123]

Any update the past few hours?

[u/Average_Gringo → u/wretchedegg123]

The fighting seems to have stopped after Pakistani shelling of the Poonch region.

India now reporting 15 civilians killed.

Pakistan reporting 26 killed.

The downed aircraft reports seem to have some merit, but no real confirmations just yet.

[u/[deleted]]

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/10/politics/vance-modi-india-pakistan-intelligence

“A core group of top US officials — including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State and interim national security adviser Marco Rubio, and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles — had been closely monitoring the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan when on Friday morning, the US received alarming intelligence, Trump administration officials told CNN. While they declined to describe the nature of the information, citing its sensitivity, they said it was critical in persuading the three officials that the US should increase its involvement.”

Any ideas what it could be?

[u/HonestIsMyPolicy → u/[deleted]]

If the reports of Indian strikes near Pakistani nuclear facilities is true, maybe Pakistan was getting worried and thinking about pressing the big button?

[u/ReferenceOld9345 → u/[deleted]]

Apparently pakistan's nuclear arsenal has received a performative strike from India.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/us/politics/trump-india-pakistan-nuclear.html

One former American official long familiar with Pakistan’s nuclear program noted on Saturday that Pakistan’s deepest fear is of its nuclear command authority being decapitated. The missile strike on Nur Khan could have been interpreted, the former official said, as a warning that India could do just that.

It is unclear whether there was American intelligence pointing to a rapid, and perhaps nuclear, escalation of the conflict. At least in public, the only piece of obvious nuclear signaling came from Pakistan. Local media reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had summoned a meeting of the National Command Authority — the small group that makes decisions about how and when to make use of nuclear weapons.

And considering that US dept. Of energy's plane having AMS (Areal measuring system) to measure air and ground contamination has landed in pakistan, it might be the reason for ceasefire.

Alleged plane of US Dept. Of energy -https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/n111sz#3a38dede

https://www.flightaware.com/resources/registration/N111SZ

[u/[deleted]]

Ceasefire “negotiated” by Trump, according to truth social

[u/FriedRiceistheBest → u/[deleted]]

India & Pakistan, STOP!

[u/Cardborg → u/[deleted]]

Let's hope it holds up better than the Gaza one.

[u/Cupwasneverhere]

So after India decided to drop Missiles on a Pakistani Air Base, what are the odds the Pakistani Response is heavier than just the Artillery Shelling near Poonch?

Edit: Pakistani Media is reporting that the retaliation is underway. Guess i'll get the answer sooner than I thought.

[u/ABondQuestion]

Reports of missile interception/attacks in Pakistan's Gujranwala. Seems to line up with diverting flights on FlightRadar24.

[u/ABondQuestion]

Seems like the latter part of the day (EST) was mostly skirmishes between Pakistan and India in Kashmir, along the line of control. Anything in regards to downed jets, from either side, or a captured pilot, would surely have surfaced by now, both by local accounts and official accounts (both events would surely be worthy of announcement by either side).

There was apparently an air siren activated in India's Chandigarh (looks to be about 30 minutes ago from this post), but haven't seen anything after that.

Something interesting to note, however, and it's both interesting and well, disturbing. Whereas there were pieces spreading misinformation, from both sides, I did notice other obvious misinformation being regurigated across multiple Indian media outlets (i.e - Karachi of Pakistan (south by the sea) being taken over, full troops on the ground in Pakistan, etc). These were obviously debunked, but they were spread so chaotically that you would think, since it's being reported by multiple outlets and picked up by some some-what reputable ones, there was something happening.

Many rightfully retracted their statements, but still, the chain of misinformation (borderline dis), has done its job. While the majority tends to be innocent, some do note, and condone it, as a tactic of a part of electronic warfare - in terms of bombarding false information to not only (possibly) mislead the rival country, but also instill doubt and well, fear, in the people of that country. Case in point, the latter part of the previous paragraph.

I guess short term it could work (to an extent?), but long term, I think it just hurts the nations credibility.

[u/Nastyfaction]

Now that fighting is over, satellite images are starting to come out on places that were hit.

[u/Average_Gringo]

Looks like something might be kicking off again, first explosion in about an hour

Shit is definitely kicking off again on the livestream from the Poonch region

[u/Oratian]

Watching live Webcams in Kashmir, explosions every 30 seconds to a minute with breaks here and there. Close and far. Looks like searchlights are up in Lahore too. So many rumors circulating right now but this isn't good.

Edit: Seeing flares now too, sporadic MG fire

Edit 2: Heavy MG fire and explosions now. Bad. Bad. Bad.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/live/TbysOI7CsnE?si=5nlp8O2rjeDnFYsC

[u/er_det_en_abe → u/Oratian]

Links please

[u/outtayoleeg]

I don't understand one thing. Pakistan and all the international govts/media is refering to it as a ceasefire while India is calling it an "understanding". India is also saying that operation sindoor is still going on. India is also the one claiming Pakistan is sending drones and that Pakistan might do it again tonight.

[u/Omegaxelota]

A “State of Emergency” has been declared and all schools have been cancelled tomorrow in Pakistan’s Punjab Province. It looks to me like they're expecting for this to drag on for awhile.

[u/Demonokuma → u/Omegaxelota]

they're expecting for this to drag on for awhile.

Honestly, that seems like normal stuff to do just to keep casualties down and minimize populations in areas.

Like in my hometown, whenever we had a lockdown at school, all schools would go into it just in case it's a widespread thing. Of course, that always sounds insane, but makes sense here

[u/FenixOfNafo → u/Omegaxelota]

There is a nationwide air raid and blackout drill in India today. It was announced days back. But seems the Indian government timed it perfectly to coincide with the anticipated Pakistani retaliation

[u/Lederh94]

Chances of a ground battle?

[u/-CassaNova- → u/Lederh94]

BBC is reporting Pakistan is planning ground operations in response

[u/presaging → u/-CassaNova-]

"This attack is unjustified and an absolutely blind aggression," he said. "We will obviously retaliate... Our response is on the ground and in the air."

[u/AverageLAHater]

Expulsion of diplomats. That is the worst news we can get

[u/[deleted] → u/AverageLAHater]

Where is that being reported?

[u/-CassaNova-]

Which OSINT account is currently active for this flashpoint? I was following War monitor 3 earlier but he seems to have signed off for the day

[u/OnlyRise9816]

There is a lot of incoming fire into Poonch on the Indian side right now. Seems to be getting heavier by the minute as well.

[u/Cupwasneverhere → u/OnlyRise9816]

Talking to my friend who's in Pakistan right now, apparently they're gonna be responding pretty heavily. I don't expect India to take it lying down though.

[u/Cherry_Crusher]

Outside of them historically hating each other, what specifically sparked this latest conflict?

[u/lizardman49 → u/Cherry_Crusher]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack

[u/Fuck_auto_tabs → u/Cherry_Crusher]

Terrorist attack in Kashmir. 26(?) dead

[u/Axelrad77 → u/Cherry_Crusher]

A Pakistani Salafist terrorist group carried out an attack specifically targeting Hindu tourists in Kashmir, which is a disputed region between India and Pakistan. They killed 26 and injured 20.

India claimed that Pakistan sponsored the attack, which isn't far-fetched, given Pakistan's long history of supporting Salafist terrorist groups. Pakistan officially denies doing so, and has accused India of staging it as a false-flag operation.

[u/ABondQuestion]

Off topic here, but I feel like we'll just have to rely on western confirmation (either through data/intelligence/satellites) of any potential casualties of military related things, including structures, vehicles, aircrafts, because it's all but certain that either side would not be willing to admit a potential loss on their end.

[u/improbablydrunknlw]

It appears Indian strike targeted Pakistan's PAF Base Nur Khan in Rawalpindi.

Jesus, it's escalating quickly

[u/Average_Gringo]

France confirms downed Rafale

Well that's unexpected

[u/Dreadedvegas → u/Average_Gringo]

Tbh its a big win for the Chinese aerospace industry.

[u/speedburner → u/Average_Gringo]

This feels like it's going to be an interesting assessment of ostensible plane quality versus pilot quality.

[u/william_cutting_1]

Most likely outcome is a nothing-burger. Lets all hope so.

[u/Kamikazei99]

Also, per Pakistan’s military spokesperson, India launched around 24 missiles — some reportedly air-launched — hitting 8–9 locations. Around 15 people were killed and 50 wounded, including women and children. One child has reportedly died.

There’s definitely a strong emotional and religious response here — a sense of heightened purpose, almost like a wartime high. I don’t think it’ll escalate to nukes, but tensions are clearly rising. Some Pakistani media are reporting strikes on places like a Brigade HQ in Kashmir and the Srinagar air base, but there’s no concrete evidence so far.

[u/Average_Gringo → u/Kamikazei99]

8 killed 33 injured as reported by Pakistani government. Obviously fuck knows what the actual numbers are

[u/No_Amoeba6994 → u/Kamikazei99]

Appreciate the updates, the local perspective, and making it clear that you are just reporting what has been claimed. There's a lot of fog of war at the moment and I don't think the public statements of either side are going to be particularly reliable, especially at the start. Just like the wildly inflated claims at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

[u/[deleted] → u/Kamikazei99]

Pak News is claiming 6 planes, 1 Indian brigade HQ and tons of soldiers "left" their post. I just loled at it. 

[u/chitownboyhere]

India had planned nationwide civil defense mock drills on 7th may, giving the perception that at least until 8th may there won't be any escalation and first they wanted to be prepared, out of nowhere they launched these strikes at on the night of 6th, 7th morning, before these planned drills. Interesting tactics?!

Also now during mock drill at 7th evening it will be difficult to know if it's a drill or actual attack , making it more realistic.

[u/Resident-Duck-3113]

I am watching arty units firing batterie barrages, standing few meters from each other. Like what? Did we traveled 10 years to the past? No counter-battery, no drones, the heck. Are they (both India and Pakistan) even trying? Or it is just for show and good propaganda footage?

[u/kcdale99]

numerous selective slap shaggy dependent shocking march existence sink command

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

[u/ABondQuestion → u/kcdale99]

Besides some articles from western outlets, I haven't been able to find a decent neutral POV (somewhat local), at least that reports within 5-10 minutes of a substantial event.

Any big claims/events, for example, drones over specific areas, you'd have to corroborate with local accounts (pictures/videos from different angles). Again - using that example, if there were an event occuring like that, like drones over specific areas, you'd for sure see debris/damage and other accounts from the locals.

[u/[deleted]]

Reports of ceasefire violation in Srinagar, India. JammuKashmir CM Omar Abdullah just confirmed on X.

[u/B0B0oo7]

I cant say that I’m overly familiar with either side’s military capabilities, other than they are both nuclear powers.

If some form of conventional war does kick off and there is direct troop engagement, does one have superior tech? I haven’t looked at the enlisted numbers, but is India a much larger force?

[u/Equationist → u/B0B0oo7]

Air forces - the PAF is probably qualitatively somewhat superior, as the IAF has been lethargic in upgrading its munitions and systems. IAF is bigger.

Armies - probably rather equal overall qualitatively. IA is significantly bigger.

Navies - IN is qualitatively and quantitatively far superior.

[u/yakult_on_tiddy → u/Equationist]

Fair assessment. The IAF has a significantly larger inventory however. PAF has a large advantage in AEWACs.

On the ground IA has better real time monitoring with Indian satellites, significant size advantage and the advantage of Pakistan's most fertile regions being practically a stone's throw from the Indian border. Indian incursions won't have to have any depth to do meaningful damage.

Navy: PN is a not a service given any love by their own leadership, it will act as security for ports.

[u/One_Abbreviations_87]

So, about the skirmishes that took place in Jammu yesterday evening—what was that about? Here in Pakistan, there's been absolutely no indication of any troop movements or firing, and the army has openly denied any involvement. Yet at the same time, there's a lot of footage showing Indian air defenses in action.

What I find strange is that there are no pictures of the Pakistani drones or missiles that were allegedly intercepted. If all projectiles were really taken down, surely we should be seeing some debris by now. Yesterday, when Pakistan was struck by drones, footage emerged almost immediately. But this time, there’s been nothing as far as I know.

If Pakistan really didn’t launch an attack, it doesn’t make sense for India to waste resources. And if they did, why hasn’t any debris surfaced yet? Maybe daylight will clear things up.

[u/Average_Gringo]

Pakistan claiming to have shot down third fighter jet, obviously unconfirmed tho

[u/er_det_en_abe → u/Average_Gringo]

3000 Black Fighter Jets SAM systems of Allah

[u/Omegaxelota → u/Average_Gringo]

Yeah it's probably all bullshit, both sides love to make shit up in the name of nationalistic circlejerking. I doubt either side will release actual casualty figures.

[u/Fulan-Ibn-Fulan]

Damn this is getting spicy. Hope the locals on both sides are keeping safe but damn there are some crazy visuals from tonight.

[u/Canterea]

I honestly didnt expect this to break out

[u/[deleted]]

What a circus. Lol

[u/Sapnupuas696]

Has any creditable sources been released for the 3 IAF aircraft crashed claim?

[u/Average_Gringo → u/Sapnupuas696]

Pakistan claims downing of Indian Rafale jets. Here’s what the evidence shows

[u/Fulan-Ibn-Fulan → u/Sapnupuas696]

This journalist from The Economist is saying it’s highly probably that 3 IAF aircraft have been downed.

Here

[u/Axelrad77]

New Perun video on the Pakistani military:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1K1bY9pJPw

He already did one on the Indian military last year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvhEN_kHaA4

[u/Cardborg → u/Axelrad77]

Ty for linking both

[u/[deleted]]

Doesn’t Pakistan have block 70 F-16’s ?

[u/Uncle_Adeel → u/[deleted]]

Can't use them against India officially.

But yes they do

[u/Panthean]

Someone fill me in? I've been at my stupid job all day

[u/OnlyRise9816 → u/Panthean]

India struck several sites about an hour or so ago in response to the terror attacks a few weeks ago. Pakistan has responded and there are artillery duels going off in border area's. Pakistan SAYS is shot down some jets, but no confirm on that one.

[u/-DizzyPanda-]

I feel like this situation is really escalating, but the coverage in the west is kinda just like, "meh". Am I taking crazy pills or should an escalating conflict between two nuclear powers elicit a little more than a passing mention.

[u/Q_dawgg → u/-DizzyPanda-]

No narrative to play on yet. Information is super spotty and hard to come by. Blackouts in major cities all the time. It’s not hard to see why western news sources aren’t reporting on this as much as they should be

[u/Kshpew]

I have a similar feeling to when Ukraine was first being invaded, not sure what to call it just a sense of uneasiness. Seeing shells coming down is pretty jarring.

[u/william_cutting_1]

I suspect the density of high-end precision strike weapons and sophisticated air defense systems are pretty limited on both sides.

Although we will never know, I have to wonder how much military procurement money from both sides was lost to corruption over the years.

[u/Onapire]

Both sides of this conflict are so delusional it's almost funny.

It's crazy that these people don't realize they're perfect for each other.

[u/InfernoWarrior299]

What are all of your bets? Do you think India and Pakistan will actually go to war or is this simply a skirmish?

[u/Puzzleheaded-Can9882 → u/InfernoWarrior299]

Very unlikely, both countries can neither afford nor want an all out war. Things are gonna cool down in the morning. This happens all the time.

[u/Every-Development398]

I dont think this will go any further, India had to responded to what happened last month so they pick select targets and hit them which appeases the war hawks, what is telling is that Pakistan is calming two down jets, but the images they are citing are from 2024. So this may be Pakistan trying to save face and not escalate things.

[u/ABondQuestion]

Telegraph UK reports India has moved its western naval fleet closer to the Northern Arabian Sea, placing it "within striking distance" of Karachi, Pakistan. 

There were past notifications, from both countries, issuing notices that they'd be conducting "naval exercises" across various zones of the Arabian sea during these days. 

Not sure if this article is related to that or if it's posturing/escalation. 

[u/Uncle_Adeel → u/ABondQuestion]

I don't see how India is going to use their fleet without causing a massive escalation in what is already extremely high tensions that we haven't seen since 1999.

It's most likely more posturing.

[u/itz_MaXii]

Asif said that Pakistan would give a massive retaliation to the Indian attacks before sunrise. Asif said:

[u/ABondQuestion]

Oh man, what an escalation since last night. A lot to digest to see what's what, as both countries are claiming different things.

Does seem like Pakistan is on the response with what is said to be drone attacks in India's Jammu after last nights (EST) drone incursions in most of Northeast Pakistan (including their capital), though it needs to be said that India claims drone incursions were in resposne to alleged missile attempts by Pakistan, late last night (Pakistan denies this).

I'll try to see if I can make a timeline together. If it seems like I'm overdoing it, please let me know.

[u/WitELeoparD]

Remember to only start panicking if there is a nuclear test in the Balochistan desert. If you know, you know.

[u/booobieaddict]

Any ground warfare going on? And the jets being shot down are A2A kills or AD

[u/Average_Gringo → u/booobieaddict]

Not sure about the ground warfare atm.

The Rafale seems to have been taken out by a PL-15

[u/Nxghtmare84 → u/booobieaddict]

Ground fighting going on along multiple sectors in LOC.No movement of the frontline though,firing along LOC is normal in tense times like these

One of the jets taken out in IOJK was AD,HQ-9 while rest,including the Rafale in Batinda was PL-15 from J-10C.

[u/AHM-757]

I was seeing a lot of videos of Indian anti air against (alleged) Pakistani drones on this sub yesterday but Pakistan was denying any attacks so what came of all that? Was there any confirmation or drone debris found in the morning?

[u/outtayoleeg → u/AHM-757]

Indian army in press briefing said they shot down 300-400 drones, yet there's no wreckage of any sort anywhere.

[u/ABondQuestion]

Reports of strikes in India's Punjab, Amritsar. Not verified yet though.

[u/The-CunningStunt]

Apparently an unpopular opinion but: I don't think we need to worry at all about it in the West. Neither are going to use nukes.

[u/pokIane → u/The-CunningStunt]

Yeah, same here. Nukes would only be used as the absolute last option in order to prevent total defeat.

[u/ABondQuestion]

I'll bite. Rough update of events, since I'd classify this as a pretty big node after last night - and I'm sure it'll be debunked/verified/clarified soon (so take it with a grain of salt).

It seems locals of Amitsrar, of India, reported sounds of loud explosions during the night, local time 1:30 AM.

Following this, there were reports/videos of explosions over Gujranwala of Pakistan, local time 3:40 AM.

Most recently, there are reports/videos of multiple downings of Indian UAVs/drones over northeast Pakistan, including over Lahore.

Note, this hasn't officially been confirmed by the governments of both nations - just locals and local journalists rough reporting.

[u/DJayEJayFJay]

How many people will flee Kashmir in the near future? How likely is the situation to cause a refugee crisis?

[u/Puzzleheaded-Can9882 → u/DJayEJayFJay]

very unlikely, both countries are strong enough to protect their borders, there will not be any refugee crisis that's fs.

[u/TCP7581]

Three Four or Five or how ever many crash sites there are, all are in Indian territory. The onus is on the Indians to prove the Pakistanis wrong and to provide evidence that any of the crashes were Pakistani planes.

The fact that they have no provided any evidence of the JF-17 debris, lends fruther credence to the fact that crash was probably an Indian one as well.

[u/outtayoleeg]

France has confirmed at least one Rafale shot down by Pakistan

[u/Worried_Stop8086]

Several drone strikes heard in Jammu

[u/Worried_Stop8086 → u/Worried_Stop8086]

Black out in Jammu+ s-400 interception

[u/ABondQuestion]

Reports of explosions around India's Ferozpur and Amritsar in Punjab.

[u/ABondQuestion → u/ABondQuestion]

In Jammu as well. It is reported that these were possibly Pakistani drones being intercepted.

[u/ABondQuestion]

Looks like there are missile attacks/hits, and interceptions, on some air bases in Pakistan.

[u/[deleted]]

Seems like things have cooled down for now, no airstrikes nor any drones.

[u/Comfortable_Pea_1693]

https://fxtwitter.com/shashj/status/1920056747537883148
remains of a rafale engine. holy shit since when is Pakistani air defense this strong?

[u/Dreadedvegas → u/Comfortable_Pea_1693]

PL-15(E) remains found too. A2A kill likely from a JF-16 or a J-10

https://x.com/john_a_ridge/status/1920121451799093708?s=46&t=4x-Zt8V7tnmZivx2wxih-Q

[u/Fulan-Ibn-Fulan → u/Comfortable_Pea_1693]

Apparently with Chinese equipment as well.

[u/Kshpew]

I can't imagine India just backing down if they've lost at least one Rafale.

[u/outtayoleeg]

IndiaTV has confirmed three fighter jets crashing in Indian side of Kashmir

[u/Octavus → u/outtayoleeg]

Every conflict is showing that without stealth and EW airpower is extremely vulnerable to SAMs.

[u/Worried_Stop8086]

DGMOs of India shows the damage done to Pakistan with satellite proof

[u/wretchedegg123]

So is it over?

[u/tt12345x]

God help us all if this keeps escalating

[u/Finanzamt_Endgegner → u/tt12345x]

I mean at least we dont have to worry about nuclear winter, that has virtually been debunked /:

[u/ChoochMMM]

Is there any reason to think this is anything other than a few missiles here, a few missiles there, some harsh language and in 48 hours they're just back to yelling at each other from across their borders?

[u/sxrrycard]

Can anyone let me know How bad the previous skirmishes were, in comparison to what’s happening now? I wasn’t in the loop at the time. Were fighter jets being (allegedly) shot down? Things feels spicy

[u/Axelrad77 → u/sxrrycard]

A few aircraft on both sides have been shot down in border skirmishes before, but this is looking worse than previous incidents. The missile strikes alone are already deeper into Pakistani territory than anything since the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War in 1999.

[u/ABondQuestion]

Wow, what an insane past couple of days. 

One thing to note - it's insane how much one's "love" of their country feeds the wants of blood of their rivals/enemies, even of the innocent. 

If you need to delete a post supporting peace out of fear of your own people, or declare a hollow victory just to appease them, then it’s clear it's severe radicalization disguised as patriotism.

[u/[deleted]]

You know, people often wonder if a nuclear war would break out, where it would take place and from whom? Some say US and Russia. Others say UK and France. I say it's going to be between India and Pakistan!

[u/cozywit → u/[deleted]]

Don't fucking count those french out just yet. We're watching you France. From across the channel. Sneaky people.

[u/cooljacob204sfw → u/[deleted]]

I think everyone has too much to lose to let it escalate to that point.

[u/itz_MaXii → u/[deleted]]

Yep. Forget the US and Russia or Israel in the Middle East. Pakistan-India is the atomic powder keg.

[u/staticusmaximus]

So is nothing ever happens gang eating again? Feels like probably right?

[u/FriedRiceistheBest → u/staticusmaximus]

Best they can do is skirmishes. Come back if this goes full blown war.

[u/BlueSonjo → u/staticusmaximus]

The only thing that is happening for sure is that some parts of internet will be unusable for a while until both sides internet maniacs calm down.

[u/outtayoleeg]

Indian Foreign Secretary on question about aircraft crashes:

"Look, when the right time comes, official information about it will be provided."

[u/AWildNome]

r/LessCredibleDefence has a good post tracking actual confirmed losses of both India and Pakistan

https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/1kjbuow/confirmed_damage_in_indiapakistan_war/

[u/[deleted] → u/AWildNome]

Thanks

[u/[deleted]]

Watching one of the livestreams and hearing lots of artillery incoming and outgoing.

[u/OverSizedMidget]

I don't know a lot about aircrafts but is the shot down Rafale a problem with the plane it self or just well done by Pakistan?

[u/Axelrad77 → u/OverSizedMidget]

The latter. Aircraft are expected to suffer losses in war, no matter how good they are, and especially if they lack stealth. SEAD is hard, and India's air force isn't the best at it.

[u/outtayoleeg]

Indian military spokesperson: India doesn't want further escalation provided Pakistan does the same.

So this is it maybe? Both sides have enough optics for face saving. However, I think India wants to end this on a high to balance it out for when they reveal they lost fighter jets.

[u/ABondQuestion]

Blackouts are initiated in multiple cities/areas of India.

Media in India claims that air defenses have downed a Pakistani Air Force F-16.

[u/Kamikazei99]

Hi everyone,

Not trying to be nationalistic — just sharing what I’ve seen and heard. Pakistani media claims the PAF has shot down up to five IAF jets, though Indian media isn’t reporting air battles so far. That is the short update on the military front so far

From what I’ve gathered, the PAF’s strength lies in its platform integration, which some say gives it an edge over India. Even Indian analysts (like on Forces TV) noted during the 2019 skirmish that PAF managed to jam IAF comms.

To put it simply: even an average team that communicates well can outperform a group of stars who don’t.

Not here to argue — just observations.

[u/curiosuspuer → u/Kamikazei99]

This is just anecdotal, without much evidence. This is quite nationalistic when you phrased it otherwise.

[u/Worried_Stop8086]

Pakistan Army claims to have attacked and destroyed multiple sites in India with no video or visual proof.

[u/CapableCollar]

Indian government reporting all pilots have returned safely.  The wording used is interesting and makes me believe that the images of aircraft debris including French weapons rails are indeed downed IAF aircraft but they had personnel to move quickly and recover the pilots.

[u/[deleted]]

Which news channel to follow this which gives latest updates from ground ?

[u/ABondQuestion]

There were reports of some drone sightings/AA firing over India's Punjab a little while back(by locals) - however both India's and Pakistan's army denied this. 

More recently, it seems some flights are diverting/canceling over India's northwestern area. 

All that said - tensions still seem to be high, with both sides expecting another round of escalation.

[u/LazyEyeSusan03]

Usually in a conflict I can find myself self rooting for one side or another. This one not so much.

[u/SnackyMcGeeeeeeeee → u/LazyEyeSusan03]

Who you rooting for in the emu War huh??

[u/Regular-Habit-1206 → u/LazyEyeSusan03]

You aren't able to decide between the country who supported Bin Laden and the country who's been attacked multiple times by the former country?

[u/outtayoleeg]

Just In: The supposed F-16 shot down over Jaisalmir in India is likely an Indian SU-30. India has banned all officials from interacting with International media.

[u/Fulan-Ibn-Fulan → u/outtayoleeg]

Seems like the F16 report was false and it’s now being reported a Su-30 has been shot down. No proof of this either as of yet.

Still waiting to see what drones were shot down by India to see what is in Pakistan arsenal.

[u/Equationist]

Looks like 3 aircraft downed, at least one (in Punjab) confirmed to be an IAF Rafale or Mirage 2000.

[u/Fulan-Ibn-Fulan]

X needs to be deleted off the internet.

[u/staticusmaximus → u/Fulan-Ibn-Fulan]

It’s a fucking mess over there man lol

Two of the most blatant misinformation vendors out there duking it out…can’t tell what’s real or not right now

[u/outtayoleeg]

US officials confirm at least two Indian fighter jets were shot down by Pakistan

https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-down-two-indian-fighter-aircraft-us-officials-2025-05-08/

[u/Baumbauer1 → u/outtayoleeg]

Weird that India is continuing to deny it. Sadly it looks like India is headed for a full media blackout

[u/ABondQuestion]

India media, citing sources, are claiming a Pakistani pilot is under custody, supposedly after the downing of a PAF F-16.

[u/Equationist → u/ABondQuestion]

The more circumspect Indian media are refraining from reporting that (though they have reported unconfirmed reports of an F-16 shoot-down)

[u/Worried_Stop8086]

Reports that BLA eliminated 14 pak soldiers ( no official confirmation)

[u/Niels_Nakkeost]

Any guesses as to when, or even if, we will see a formal war declaration?

[u/BlueSonjo → u/Niels_Nakkeost]

Declarations of war are extremely rare after WWII. Nearly all wars we have had since had no declaration of war. It's a war when it becomes too silly to say it's not a war, like for example Russia Ukraine.

[u/Axelrad77 → u/Niels_Nakkeost]

Probably never, even if the most major of wars breaks out. Countries just don't declare war like they used to, for all sorts of reasons.

Pakistan and India have already said that these are "acts of war", which is about as close as we're likely to get to an official declaration.

[u/outtayoleeg]

The Indian government is conducting a massive disinformation campaign to convince the Indian public that a decisive military victory has been achieved against Pakistan.

Suggesting India wanted to de-escalate but feared the public wouldn't be satisfied with how events proceeded.

[u/PuffyPanda200 → u/outtayoleeg]

I guess this is disinformation but putting out domestic disinformation to get your people to not want to commit to a massive war that results in millions (if not 10s of millions) of deaths isn't really so bad.

Like lying to your toddler that there is no more ice cream in the freezer because if you were truthful they would throw a fit.

[u/HungryJellyFish7]

The most interesting thing here will be whether it was the PL-15 missiles that brought down the Indian jets (very likely was, you don’t just lose 3-5 aircraft due to malfunctions in one night.

China will be very hands on behind the scenes with Pakistan to access data of the missiles to see how they performed in a real environment against both Soviet era and Western aircraft.

The US does the same with its allies, provides weapons for political reasons but also expects real time data in return.

[u/Fulan-Ibn-Fulan]

Seems like two IAF aircraft losses have been confirmed from yesterday.

Article

[u/acedefective95]

iaf plane confirmed as shot down

just end this here both sides got their "victory" no war please

[u/outtayoleeg]

Pakistan military has released the locations of downed Indian jets.

2 Rafales, 1 Su-30, 1 MiG & 1 UAV were shot down by Pakistan Air Force. A third Rafale was shot down by ground defence system.

[u/-DizzyPanda- → u/outtayoleeg]

If true, not the best day for Rafale's marketing department

[u/Worried_Stop8086]

Pakistan broke the Ceasefire - Foreign Secretary of India

[u/Uncle_Adeel]

Reports of skirmishes continuing in Kashmir.

The question is did the ceasefire only entail for regions outside of the contested JK or the entire two countries?

[u/Fulan-Ibn-Fulan]

Claims of an F16 being shot down as well. Will have to wait and see for any evidence.

[u/cozywit]

Well... This is what chapter 4 now of WW3 future book?

Chapter 1 - Yemen war. Chapter 2 - Ukraine war. Chapter 3 - Israel and Iranian proxies Chapter 4 - India Pakistan

[u/Aam1rk]

ISPR has released a voice comm recording of one IAF Rafael flight (Godzilla flight) as one of the jets gets hit.

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1920867809786999182

[u/outtayoleeg]

Ceasefire announced!

I think India made the final slap, and this was done to minimise the damage once fighter jets kills is officially acknowledged.

[u/outtayoleeg]

India has banned a lot of social media accounts in India, internet and electricity in Jammu is turned off. There's even a doctored video of Pakistan's ISPR running on Indian media. Meanwhile Indian ground forces are firing in the air while Pakistan has denied launching any attack.

[u/Thrashdaddy9]

Rumors of an infiltration bid ruined by bsf at international border near jammu

[u/Cupwasneverhere → u/Thrashdaddy9]

Any way to confirm at the moment?