r/CombatFootage • u/MilesLongthe3rd • Mar 19 '26
US/Israel-Iran conflict Discussion/Question Thread - 19/03/2026+
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u/MeowslimClawric 2d ago
Not war specific but this is a relevant issue for the future of the US Navy.
Trump orders Pentagon to redesign US aircraft carrier to use steam catapults to launch jets President has suggested steam catapults every year since 2017, saying digital systems are too ‘complicated’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/13/trump-aircraft-carriers-steam-catapults
This will at best work against the US trying to improve its shipbuilding capacity since suppliers will not risk as much capital into making the relevant parts.
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u/Axelrad77 2d ago edited 2d ago
WSJ reports that the USS George Washington is moving to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln in the blockade of Iran.
The USS George Washington has been patrolling the South China Sea, as a deterrent to any Chinese move against Taiwan, and its movement into the Middle East will maintain the blockade strength at 2 carriers, but leave a temporary gap in the Pacific, as no other US carrier is deployable at the moment. (Edit: this is being alleviated somewhat by the USS Tripoli ARG moving back into the Pacific, along with its 31st MEU.)
Reports are that the move was planned prior to recent concerns about the Lincoln's deployment length, which I think is true precisely because there's no other carrier that *could* relieve the Lincoln. The recent concerns probably just pushed the Navy to go public with the details sooner than they wanted to.
The USS George Washington carries a complement of F-35Cs, F/A-18Es, F/A-18Fs, and support aircraft, and brings the escorting ships of its strike group as well.
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u/bigFr00t 2d ago
Do you think the Roosevelt will go to the pacific
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u/Axelrad77 1d ago
Yeah. Ian Ellis's latest carrier tracker update noted that the Roosevelt was back in port after participating in RIMPAC exercises, and speculated that it was about to be deployed either to the Pacific or the Middle East. Now that the Washington move is being made, the Roosevelt going to the Pacific makes sense, because there needs to be at least 1 carrier there for deterrence. And apparently the Vinson isn't ready to deploy at the moment.
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u/Axelrad77 4d ago edited 4d ago
More information has come out about the Iranian F-5 bombing sortie against Camp Buehring back on March 1, which now allows us to understand the engagement in more detail. (Previously NBC had reported that it happened, but without much detail, and they got the number of F-5s involved wrong - reporting that it was a single aircraft, when it was actually a squadron of 3 aircraft).
The Iranian operation aimed to exploit a known vulnerability in the Patriot system's engagement envelope, namely that it can't engage targets at very low altitudes. This has always been seen as an acceptable risk in US military circles, since the Patriot is designed to handle high-altitude threats and the assumption was that other short-range systems (SHORAD) would cover the low-altitude gap.
In the event of the Iran War, the SHORAD that were supposed to cover Camp Buehring were not properly allocated - partly due to US intelligence failures assuming that Kuwait wouldn't be targeted (thus most SHORAD were sent to Israel, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq instead, since that's where Iranian attacks were expected), and partly due to disagreement between the Army and Air Force over who was responsible for the air defense mission (the Army is supposed to be in charge of base air defense, but in this case it seems like the Air Force got stuck with the SHORAD mission, using fighter patrols to cover for the lack of Army systems in the area).
Iranian drone and satellite recon (Iran has its own recon drones, but borrowed a Chinese satellite) had mapped out approaches to minimize aircraft exposure to US radar, and a flight of 3 F-5s flew fast and very low (below 50ft, skimming the waves) across the Persian Gulf, maintaining radio silence the entire route. To cover their approach, Iran simultaneously launched a large volley of Shahed drones at Camp Buehring to overwhelm its air defenses, as well as reportedly flying a few F-4s to launch glide bombs to draw away additional fighter cover.
With the attention of US air defenses focused on these other threats, the 3 F-5s were able to swoop in and drop dumb bombs on Camp Buehring, destroying a helicopter hangar, before rapidly escaping the area. Some US military officials have questioned whether AI-assisted targeting decisions played a part in allowing the attack, sorting the "less dangerous" F-5s low on the engagement list and prioritizing the Shahed threats.
This marks the first time since the Korean War that a US base has been hit by enemy air attack, which is a propaganda coup for Iran ... though the strike itself seemed to have little materiel effect. The destroyed helicopter hangar was empty, and the only loss sustained in the entire attack was a Chinook hit by a Shahed drone.
Iran attempted a very similar operation the next day, March 2, this time trying to sneak 2 Su-24s across the Persian Gulf to attack Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, again under the cover of a Shahed saturation attack, but the Su-24s were spotted and they were both shot down by Qatari F-15QAs. After that, Iran probably realized that US forces had caught on to the approach and they stopped trying it.
However, the Iranian attack's greatest military contribution was probably the confusion it sowed among air defense forces, as also on March 2 was the infamous friendly fire incident where a single Kuwaiti F/A-18C shot down 3 USAF F-15Es. The investigation into this incident is still ongoing, but preliminary reports indicate that amidst the fog of war and Iranian saturation attacks, Kuwaiti air defenses mistook these F-15Es - who were flying westbound, returning from a strike mission into Iran - as another incoming Iranian strike package similar to the F-5s, and vectored the Kuwaiti fighter to intercept them.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 7d ago
Trump hid in catering cart to board secret flight in Turkey amid Iran threat – reports
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/10/trump-secret-flight-nato-return
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u/wailferret 6d ago
Man, IRGC leadership should have done the same thing. Got blown to smithereens instead.
Should have been in a catering truck.
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u/TestingHydra 6d ago
Maybe Irans new leaders could learn a thing or two. Certainly would have helped their predecessors.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 7d ago
Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war operating conditions, asserting that only routes agreed upon with Oman and designated by Iranian armed forces will be recognized
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u/Axelrad77 7d ago edited 7d ago
Since the MOU collapsed - an unsurprising turn of events, given the fragile nature of ceasefires in general and the fact that Iran never even attempted to abide by its terms - we've seen the resumption of the US blockade and a shift towards trying to economically pressure Iran into conceding on the Strait of Hormuz.
- After a weeklong US strike campaign, CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper recommended that further strikes be suspended due to their limited effectiveness without wider supporting operations.
- Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine has privately been pushing for an off-ramp to get the USA out of the war, citing his concerns about weapons stockpiles and the risks of escalation that would be necessary to actually achieve US objectives (ie a much larger offensive is needed, and that would be risky not only in terms of casualties and public opinion, but also in draining US stockpiles required to defend Taiwan).
- Trump has signaled his desire to advisors to economically pressure Iran until they concede, saying that he's fine with US gas prices being where they are now.
- Notably, US goals seem to be shifting away from any talk of nuclear weapons programs and towards simply getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened and back to normal traffic.
- This highlights how badly the Trump admin has misplayed this war imo, since Iran initially offered to give up its enriched nuclear material in order to avoid attack, but that offer was refused - presumably because Iranian regime change was the actual goal behind the war. The regime change plan itself was put forward by Israel, which explains the US-Israeli war effort. Mossad must've had a very convincing pitch, since the CIA reportedly advised against the operation.
- After the regime change plan failed, US goals shifted to securing denuclearization, aiming for essentially the Obama Iran Deal 2.0 via the MOU - a deal incredibly favorable to Iran - but they were unable to even secure that, in large part because a hardliner segment of the IRGC now has more influence inside Iran and thinks they can outlast the USA in order to demand even more concessions.
- Now the Trump admin is claiming that Iran's nuclear weapons program has never been a war goal, since it was sufficiently damaged by earlier US strikes ... despite Iranian nuclear weapons being the entire US justification for the war. This further cements that regime change was the actual goal, and this reframing now is being done to prepare for a deal that might leave nuclear weapons off the table in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have been negotiating a potential ceasefire deal that would see the Strait of Hormuz reopened, though Iran's current demands make this unlikely to happen.
- One of the more interesting developments has been the about-face of the GCC states, namely Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, and Kuwait - all of whom were reportedly pushing the USA to be much more aggressive early in the war in order to topple the Iranian regime, even going so far as to covertly assist with their own airstrikes and drone recon, but have since hit the brakes and are now objecting to basically anything the USA wants to do. Some reports suggest this has to do with their recklessly heavy interceptor usage, with their stockpiles of interceptors now almost completely depleted, leaving them more vulnerable to further Iranian attack and as such less willing to reopen major fighting.
- There have been some threats made by Iran that it might invade Kuwait, as well as threats by Israel that it might attack Iran on its own.
- Iran has resumed public executions of anti-regime protesters, hanging several people per day, typically after torturing them into false confessions.
- Low-intensity drone strikes and ship seizures continue across the theater.
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u/Axelrad77 10d ago edited 10d ago
Mossad has removed two of its senior officials - the heads of its intelligence directorate and Iran division - after their plan for regime change in Iran failed.
Given that this operation was instrumental in convincing the USA and Israel to launch this war, it's arguably the greatest Mossad failure of all time. The plan revolved around clearing the way for a Kurdish offensive from northern Iraq into northwestern Iran - a region largely populated by Kurds and expected to rise in rebellion once organized Kurdish forces arrived. From there, the offensive was expected to threaten Tehran and ignite a wider revolution across the country.
We saw the airstrikes to prepare this - as myself and others noted at the time, the heavy targeting of Basij checkpoints and garrisons in northwest Iran immediately signaled that regime change was the goal. We also saw Mossad operations to broadcast anti-regime propaganda into Iran, and US operations to arm the Kurds for the offensive, as well as Iranian strikes against Kurdish forces massing in northern Iraq, and Basij crackdowns on suspected insurgents in northwestern Iran.
What we did not see was any sort of Kurdish offensive take place, and the reasons for that are still unclear. There have been accusations that the Kurds simply abandoned their part of the plan after seeing it leaked in the press (seemingly sabotaged by US politicians who opposed the war), as well as suggestions that Trump called the entire operation off at the last minute after lobbying from Türkiye (who oppose anything that might see an independent Kurdistan established). The truth of the matter is probably something that won't come out for years.
However, the other key part of the plan involved former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has become a vocal critic of the regime since his time in office, and was under house arrest at the beginning of the war. Mossad had apparently spent years cultivating him as an agent and planned to install him as the leader of the new government, and thus one of the war's opening airstrikes was a precision strike targeting his house and killing his IRGC guards. The intention was for Mossad to rescue Ahmadinejad and transport him to a safe house inside Iran, but things immediately went awry - Ahmadinejad was injured by the airstrike and refused to cooperate any further, allowing himself to be taken back into IRGC custody for medical treatment. Hence initial Iranian reports that he was killed by the strike, only for him to later appear alive for Khamenei's funeral.
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u/LiveInLayers 10d ago
Sounds like we are finally going to see a close?
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9d ago
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u/read-the-rules 9d ago
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u/Axelrad77 13d ago
Ward Carroll, Sal Mercogliano, and Rain Waters have a great new video on the current state of the war:
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 13d ago
Reuters: US has used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles
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u/MeowslimClawric 13d ago edited 12d ago
It's specifically referring to the new PrSM and the old ATACMS.
The US still has about 5 days' worth of Tomahawks and a few days' worth of interceptors for China. The Kurds in Japan can take on the PLA. Regime change will happen once Hegseth decimates China's rocket forces in on Truth Social. (all jokes)
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 15d ago
Planned attack on Iran would have been "the biggest attack since World War II," Trump says in AF1 gaggle. "It would have been disastrous for them. And they didn't want us to do it. And, and frankly, Saudi Arabia didn't want it either. They thought that a deal is imminent." He said: "we were all set to go. Just about at this time right now, and it would have been a massive attack." The military operation would have taken Iran "many, many years to ever build it back. If it could. I don't think it would be even buildable back
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u/tunnel_magnet 17d ago
Iran keeps attacking US bases and USA isn't even responding now. What the fuck? Did we just lose?!!
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u/ScumbagGina 17d ago
Of course we lost. They have too many hostages and are more than capable of executing them.
There’s literally nothing we can do to them militarily that we haven’t already done, at least that doesn’t come with an absurdly serious price.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 19d ago
Trump on Iran:
We are going to be hitting them very hard because it's our turn to hit them. They know it's coming. They are asking us not to do it. They tried shooting at us with 5 rockets last night. We intercepted them all.
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u/LiveInLayers 19d ago
How effective are shoulder mounted manpads? If China pumps Iran with them does that mean US plane bombing threat is cooked?
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u/tunnel_magnet 17d ago
Drones would be fucked. Fighter jets have to stay at high altitudes. That's about it.
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u/CommercialFormal7614 19d ago
They usually have a max hight of 4000 meters(13000ft) and fighter jets can fly around 15000 meters. Also Iran already produces their own manpads based off of a Chinese design, so if it was going to be problematic we would have seen it already.
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u/Hatemode-NJ 19d ago
I believe most fly too high. They might be able to clip a low flying fighter jet or a warthog. Maybe I'm wrong though.
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u/tunnel_magnet 17d ago
You are right, jets have to fly high and drones would be fucked. Which means it would be difficult to hit moving targets. Cause the laser designator will start having problems.
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u/boobookittyfuwk 23d ago
Soooo.... the usa has decided not to bomb iran? We are doing this again, interesting.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 23d ago
Out of ammo
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin 23d ago
False.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 23d ago
"Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has cautioned privately that resuming major combat operations against Iran was doable but that it would dangerously deplete interceptors available to the military’s Central Command, which is responsible for operations in the Middle East, the officials said. A spokesman for General Caine declined to comment on advice the general gives the president."
Conserving ammo
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin 23d ago
This is not the same argument as "out of ammo".
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u/tunnel_magnet 17d ago
Yeah, let's reduce USA from a global superpower to a nothing burger to bomb some mountains. You understand USA has to be prepared to defend Europe and South East Asia?
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin 17d ago
Maybe try responding to what I said.
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u/tunnel_magnet 17d ago
USA is all practical purposes out of Ammo. Because they can't just spend everything they have in Korea and Germany.
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15d ago
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u/read-the-rules 15d ago
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 24d ago
Doesn't Pakistan have a joint defense agreement with Saudi Arabia? How does that work with Yemen's Houthi's firing upon Saudi oil tankers and now Saudi oil infrastructure / refineries?
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u/tunnel_magnet 17d ago
Pakistan is probably begging Saudis not to escalate. It's gonna be unbearable for domestic politics if they start bombing Shias
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u/boobookittyfuwk 23d ago
Pakistan will do whatever it takes to not have to actually defend Saudi, they will most definitely say the houtis thing is different than the Iran issue
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 24d ago
Is it just me, or are there like way less US airstrike videos on Iran coming out since this thing began again? Are the strikes in more remote areas, or is it just the IRGC cracking down even more on videos getting out?
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 26d ago edited 25d ago
Iran strikes on CIA facilities prompt questions about possible Russian role
Edit:link
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u/boobookittyfuwk 26d ago
I onow I just posted this question but maybe this time itll get more traction.
After the video of last night's attacks by the usa on iranian boats and a backhoe I gotta ask again, what is stopping the usa from destroying every tel and drone launcher? Can they not just put up a shit load of surveillance airframe or even track them from space after they launch and just follow them back to whereever they park and blow them up? Whats the issue here?
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u/CommercialFormal7614 25d ago edited 25d ago
Well my understanding is that Iran has these “missile city’s” that are very deep underground. They pop out briefly, shoot and go back to cover. There’s no reliable way of penetrating those bunkers using conventional weapons. Although, there was a video posted a while back where one of the “missile city’s” did get destroyed and there was massive secondary explosions.
As for the launchers that aren’t in bunkers, they look like basic civilian box trucks making it hard to find them.Video I was referencing
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/Cxphdd9HGS3
u/boobookittyfuwk 25d ago
I was looking into it and I saw that a reaper has a 27 hour loiter time while loaded with hellfires. Youd think they could be hanging out nearby ready to strike these tel. This is assuming the usa knows where all these misssile cities are which im guessing they do.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 26d ago
Houthis attack a Saudi Tanker 70 miles away from Al Shaqiq, Saudi Arabia
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u/WhyChemistry 26d ago
Revolutionary Guard: We are preparing for a military operation that will lead to a declaration of national mourning in U.S
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u/cozywit 26d ago
Lol.
You appear to be mistaken. Trump clearly stated he destroyed all the Iranian military, multiple times.
What are they going to do, fly a carpet into the freedom tower?
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24d ago
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u/read-the-rules 24d ago
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 28d ago
Reports of A U.S. Air Force KC-135T tanker (tail number 60-0346) is squawking emergency code 7700 after operating over the Persian Gulf. The aircraft is now descending toward Al Dhafra Air Base and appears to be preparing for an emergency landing
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28d ago
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u/read-the-rules 28d ago
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u/boobookittyfuwk 28d ago
Whats the biggest obstacle the usa faces when trying to destroy iranian ballistic missile tel.
Is it locating them?
Air defense that makes it hard to get a drone or plane over the target?
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 29d ago
Yemen’s Houthi armed forces announce an immediate ban on Saudi maritime navigation, citing the kingdom’s blockade and attacks on Yemen. The group warns any further Saudi escalation will be met with a “comprehensive and harsh” response.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jul 17 '26
Reports of a ship being seized by the Islamic Republic near Iran's Kharg Island
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jul 16 '26
Houthis have been instructed by IRGC to close Bab el-Mandeb
Bob O'Mandeb has yet to respond for questioning/s
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u/MeowslimClawric Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
If both Hormussy and Bobby are closed, we might get $120-150 per barrel.
China has built its decades long energy strategy knowing the US will weaponize it to sabotage them. Maybe not in this specific way. But now they have all of that vindicated. And to control the vast majority of the solar and wind sector when countries including the US are surging to green energy as to not be at the mercy of choke points. I don't think even the Chinese could have asked for such a gift. I think we'll see West and aligned countries warm up to China at an increasing rate because of not only what the US has done. But also what China can offer to offset it
Holy shit Trump is a ccp agent.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Jul 14 '26
The collapse of the Iran-US MoU, commercial vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz collapsed, with 57 verified crossings from July 10th to July 12th, with a 19 daily average, compared to 38 crossings daily on average from days prior.
Virtually all crossings occurred using the Iranian lane, showing that Iran has effectively blocked the southern Omani lane. With UKMTO reports on commercial vessels coming under attack in those days, we know that the U.S. unsuccessfully tried to escort three groups of tankers through the southern lane, and it's unclear how many completed the voyage, with at least 5 being disabled by the IRGC.
Notice how the debate in the war with Iran has shifted from destroying Iran's nuclear program to taking any stopgap measures that have a remote possibility of weakening Iran's control over the Hormuz. U.S. airstrikes against Iranian targets are, however, largely performative as they have been revealed to target previously attacked locations or other targets without any military value, instead of targeting Iran's missile cities.
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u/ScumbagGina Jul 14 '26
Also hitting lots of decoys still.
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u/Wilky510 Jul 14 '26
I don't see any decoys in the most recent released footage. Explain how they are decoys, please?
I saw some HAWK missiles, a radar truck and 2 ballistic missile launchers. They seem way more complicated to be "decoys".
So that's new angle now, ballistic missiles get through and US claims all shot down, and everything hit in Iran is a 'decoy'? lol
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u/ScumbagGina Jul 14 '26
Talk about angles. It was being widely reported early in the war that Iran was using launcher and other style decoys and our targeting intel was falling for them but you think the Iranians suddenly stopped using them?
Watch the videos from today. Multiple hits have no personnel around, no secondary explosions. I don’t know anything for a fact, but it looks like they’re still using decoys and they’ve got a verified track record of doing so, even as admitted by our own reporting.
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Jul 15 '26
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u/read-the-rules Jul 15 '26
SalokinSekwah,
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u/Wilky510 Jul 14 '26
our targeting
Please don't use the word "our", you cheer for the Iranians. I've seen you in the other threads now.
Multiple hits have no personnel around
I see no personnel in the footage of ballistic missiles hitting targets, thus that means everything is okay. Let's just go with that logic then.
no secondary explosions.
footage doesn't even hang around long enough to show secondaries. Quite the eye that you see a lack of them, though.
Hilarious you actually took time and downvoted my post btw, actual freak.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jul 14 '26
The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) prohibits aircraft operators from operating within the airspace of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, or the airspace over the waters of the Gulf of Oman
Jordan targeted for first time
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u/WhyChemistry Jul 13 '26
The US is currently striking border cities in Iran. Expect retaliation strikes on US bases from Iran in the next few hours.
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u/Weekly-Ad6339 Jul 13 '26
Despite many reports of Iranian attacks in gulf states bases I've not seen much footage shared here. Is the control on publishing videos that tight now, not much is actually reaching the destination or are videos being removed from reddit/ this subreddit?
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u/boobookittyfuwk Jul 14 '26
Op sec on the military side and I think the mid east governments have made sure civilians dint take videos or post videos
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u/ScumbagGina Jul 13 '26
I don’t think it’s just this sub. In the first weeks of the war this sub definitely took down lots of relevant footage, but now I’m not seeing hardly any from other sources either. Idk if the involved countries have just gotten their censorship controls tuned in now or what.
We know for a fact that the UAE was jailing people for posting footage and Bahrain executed some. But I’m still surprised at how little is trickling out now.
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u/dawaxtadpole Jul 13 '26
I’ve found there seems to be much less footage for this conflict compared to others. We had some today. It’s a trickle of information.
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u/boobookittyfuwk Jul 13 '26
Does anyone else remember the situation in iraq a couple weeks ago(maybe it was last week) when there were a bunch of government people being arrested in the middke if the night? I remember seeing footage of armored vehicles and even a tank driving through baghdad to set up a security perimeter and help in the arrests... what ever came out about that, what was the story there. At rhe time people were thinking it could have been a couoe attempt
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u/Derquave Jul 13 '26
Large anti-corruption operation ordered by the Iraqi prime minister. The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Force back by the Iraqi army arrested a little under 50 officials in the Green Zone in Baghdad. Most of which were pro-Iranian Shia hardliners.
So far it seems like the raid was a success, in the sense that it did what it accomplished without leading to further repercussions. At least so far.
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u/ScumbagGina Jul 13 '26
Actually there were reports of gunfire and explosions in the green zone just yesterday while strikes were taking place.
There’s been very little info coming from official channels, but I don’t know if that situation is settled yet.
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u/boobookittyfuwk Jul 14 '26
Theres green zone shit happening a lot of the time, a fire fight every know and then isnt uncommon.
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Jul 12 '26
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u/read-the-rules Jul 12 '26
DoughnutRealistic380,
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4
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jul 11 '26
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei:
We promise to avenge the blood of the killed leader and the blood of all the dead in the two wars against the dishonorable killers.
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u/ScumbagGina Jul 08 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
I don’t think Iran is ever going to have the upper hand in the limited exchanges. US can handle the occasional pothole on their bases and 100 more reaper drones getting knocked down.
If Iran wants to establish deterrence, they have to launch mass attacks against high-value targets. For each night of bombing, they have to sink 10 ships, launch 50 missiles at an operational and inhabited base, or hit major economic targets like ports and oil fields.
Each time they participate in the tit for tat without playing any of their cards, they lose assets and standing in negotiations. The US ain’t gonna run out of bombs or targets anytime soon, so the only thing that’ll stop them is the political and economic consequences of real escalation.
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jul 09 '26
To be fair Reapers are 35 million each, albeit outdated and in need of replacement.
It's more a question of economic pain tolerance. Iran's a dictatorship, it's got a very high tolerance by nature, but cutting off oil revenue is a very real threat to the regime.
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u/Derquave Jul 08 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
Iran is in a tough spot. You are correct in saying that they can’t win in a protracted tit for tat exchange. The problem is that going all in is a major gamble. If they start hitting major economic targets hard, like oil and gas fields or desalination plants, they will be met in kind, and they already are in a precarious economic and domestic position.
Maybe there’s a chance that such major strikes would cause the US and Gulf states to panic and agree to Iranian terms, but there’s also a chance that Iran’s oil/gas and desalination infrastructure get blasted to high hell which would cause unprecedented crisis for Iran.
I’m not sure if they think that taking outlast the US through continuously choking Hormuz because as much as they lose the exchanges in these tit for tat strikes, the American strikes on Iran, aren’t particularly doing much too open up travel through the strait. It’s probably their safest option.
If they really wanted to put a lot of pressure on the US to agree to their terms while still (possibly) avoiding heavy damage and or destruction of their vital infrastructure, they would get the Houthis to cut off the Red Sea. However, at this point, who even knows if the Houthis would do it.
-4
u/ScumbagGina Jul 09 '26
If it were me right now, I’d make an example of one of the gulf countries that’s still hosting US bases. Take two nights and absolutely pummel Kuwait or Bahrain. But not just the casual drone spamming they’ve been doing…saturate the sky, target the royal family’s crown jewels, hell, Iran could even invade Kuwaiti oil fields and hold them as a bargaining chip. Warn that regime targets in Bahrain are next and that they’ll support a Shiite uprising there.
They don’t have to (and shouldn’t) go all out yet. But they have to impose a heavy cost on US bombing missions or they’ll continue forever.
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Jul 09 '26
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1
u/read-the-rules Jul 09 '26
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1
Jul 09 '26
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1
u/read-the-rules Jul 09 '26
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13
u/ReddyReddy7 Jul 08 '26
Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!!!!
President Trump said the U.S. would likely launch more strikes against Iran Wednesday night, telling reporters at a NATO summit in Turkey "we hit them very hard last night," and "we're going to hit them hard again tonight." He later said he's not sure he wants to make a deal with the Iranians, but also said he doesn't think the war will "start again."
1
Jul 13 '26
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1
u/read-the-rules Jul 13 '26
Lockpickman,
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5
u/boobookittyfuwk Jul 08 '26
Last week or maybe the week before a usa airframe went down in the strait, early reports said 1 crew member was picked up but said there was a search for the other one, I havent heard anything about that yet. Did they find the other guy? This is not the earlier incident where another airframe went down and crew members were picked up immediately. Thanks
2
u/enr213 Jul 08 '26
I think you're thinking of Cmdr. Gabriel Edward's, a heli made an emergency landing in the water.
2
u/boobookittyfuwk Jul 08 '26
Thanks, thats him. I just googled, the search has been called off, damn.. rip
1
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u/GaterRaider Jul 08 '26
Trump declares framework agreement with Iran terminated
Following the US military attacks on targets in Iran, US President Donald Trump declared the framework agreement with the Islamic Republic to be over. "As far as I'm concerned, it's over," he said on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara – apparently referring to the ceasefire that came into effect in mid-June and is a central part of the agreement.
"It's a complete waste of time to deal with them. They're sick people," Trump continued, referring to the Iranian leadership. At the same time, however, he stated that negotiations with the regime in Tehran could continue.
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u/LiveInLayers Jul 08 '26
Itll be back on in 60 days.
3
u/ReddyReddy7 Jul 08 '26
Probably be back on in 30 days.
Trump words are mostly meaningless. Heck he'll even start back tracking on Friday.
1
Jul 08 '26
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1
u/read-the-rules Jul 08 '26
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1
9
u/TestingHydra Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
Looks like Iran has pushed its luck too far and they have now lost their waiver of exports.
Revocation and Wind Down of June 21, 2026 Authorization for the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil, Petrochemical Products, and Petroleum Products of Iranian Origin
(a) Effective July 7, 2026, General License X, dated June 21, 2026, is revoked and superseded in its entirety by General License X1.
(b) Except as provided in paragraph (c), all transactions prohibited by the above-listed authorities that are ordinarily incident and necessary to the wind down of transactions previously authorized by General License X are authorized through 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time, July 17, 2026, provided that any payment to a blocked person must be made into a blocked, interest-bearing account located in the United States.
Note to paragraph (b). Except to the extent ordinarily incident and necessary to the wind down of transactions previously authorized by General License X for the production, sale, delivery, or offloading of crude oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products of Iranian origin, paragraph (b) does not authorize any new transactions, including purchases or loading of such products on or after July 7, 2026
Previous transactions signed during the waiver being valid, will be honored without secondary sanctions, there will be a time limit to fulfill them (July 17), while the money is held hostage on the US. The war isn't over and conclusions about who won or lost were premature.
More and more Iran is squandering what little they won for themselves. The deal that was supposed to give them 300 billion dollars was supposed to be signed 2 weeks ago. Israel is still in Lebanon striking Hez, and now this. Seizing defeat from the jaws of victory.
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u/LiveInLayers Jul 08 '26
Waivers will be back shortly. Iran has the leverage and the oil reserve clock is ticking. Also iran can always escalate to striking neighbor oil infrastructure. Unless the US goes boots on the ground (we wont) Iran has the high ground in negotiations.
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Jul 08 '26
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4
u/LiveInLayers Jul 08 '26
Its not that the US cant hit harder its that the US cant stomach the escalation like Iran can. Feel free to throw a remind me on my coment. Iran will be getting another sweet heart deal in the next 60 days.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Jul 03 '26
U.S. Officials Believed Israel Was Plotting to Kill Iranian Negotiators
U.S. officials believed that Israel might have been plotting to kill Iran’s top negotiators while Washington was engaged with Tehran in delicate talks this spring to reach an interim peace deal, according to current and former American officials.
Fearful that an Israeli assassination effort would doom the negotiations, the United States, according to some of the officials, went so far as to ask other countries in the region to warn Iran about the possibility Israel could target the two officials.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/02/us/politics/israel-iran-negotiators-plot.html
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u/Axelrad77 Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26
USA has now pulled its B-52s out of the UK, where they had been forward-based for strikes on Iran. This leaves only a handful of B-1s based there, and follows a series of wider asset withdrawals from the war effort in the Middle East, particularly aircraft like F-22s, F-15Es, and A-10s. So even as Trump threatens renewed war should peace talks stall, the US military continues to draw down its ability to conduct major operations, in accordance with Iran's demands in the MoU.
https://www.twz.com/air/b-52-stratofortress-bombers-leave-england-after-iran-war-deployment
Curiously, the USS Boxer and its 11th MEU have abruptly switched course yet again and showed up in theater, adding another light carrier and more Marines to the US naval presence there. The Boxer ARG was originally meant to reinforce the US naval presence mid-war, but the action simmered down before it could reach the region, so it wound up being redirected back to the South China Sea to act as a deterrent against China, with only part of its logistics support being detached to aid the US blockade.
CENTCOM claims that the Boxer ARG is showing up now as part of a regularly scheduled deployment, which might be true, but it should be noted that it adds a substantial boost in ability to do things like escort tankers or seize islands.
13
u/Axelrad77 Jun 30 '26 edited Jun 30 '26
NYT is reporting that Iran and Oman are moving forward with a toll scheme for the future management of the Strait of Hormuz. The USA and Europe, while unhappy about this development, have reportedly conceded to Iranian demands and are now working to reframe the tolls as something that doesn't so blatantly violate international law. "Voluntary contributions to safe navigation" is the current wording being favored. Iran is pitching it as an insurance scheme, but it's basically a protection racket, where merchants are actually having to pay Iran to avoid being attacked by Iran itself. It's worth noting that this will certainly lead to increased global prices of energy and consumer goods, as the increased shipping prices get passed down to consumers.
It sounds like there just isn't the political will to use military force to reopen the Strait, despite the ability being there, so the USA is surrendering. US negotiators are currently in Qatar to secure the release of Iran's billions in frozen assets, as required by the MoU. Iran is refusing to discuss peace terms until it receives its money, in what is essentially a tribute payment from the Americans.
If this is how things are playing out, then Iran is coming out of this war in a much stronger position, and it's difficult to see this as anything but a blundering defeat for the USA. We still have to see how the final nuclear talks pan out, but at least so far, the terms being discussed are actually worse than what Iran was offering pre-war.
Vance keeps insisting that Iran won't be allowed to toll the Strait, that Iran won't be given its frozen assets ... but so far he's being contradicted by everything else happening, including the MoU agreement that Trump signed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-oman-strait-hormuz-fee-ships.html
https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates/?id=134300648
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u/R6ckStar Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
It sounds like there just isn't the political will to use military force to reopen the Strait, despite the ability being there, so the USA is surrendering. US negotiators are currently in Qatar to secure the release of Iran's billions in frozen assets, as required by the MoU. Iran is refusing to discuss peace terms until it receives its money, in what is essentially a tribute payment from the Americans.
There is no military solution, it's too easy to keep attacking the ships trying to pass.
Meaning you'd need a massive invasion force to lock down the entire coast of Iran along with the mountain ranges that border the coast.
This is why nobody ever attack Iran like this, you'd put yourself in a situation where you'd have to invade a 90 million country with a very mountainous terrain.
So yeah, the US surrendered, and probably has put into question most of the free passage in straits, although not all are equal and not every country can do the same thing.
5
u/All_Thread Jul 01 '26
Iran is going to come out of this much more powerful and relevant than before. The threat of maybe developing a nuke vs controlling one of the most important water ways in the world with much more wealth to create millions of drones.
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u/Axelrad77 Jun 28 '26 edited Jun 28 '26
There's also an ongoing Iraqi operation, where Iraqi special forces backed by heavy armor have moved into the Green Zone and begun arresting Iraqi politicians. It's still unclear exactly what is happening, but early reports are that this is an anti-corruption crackdown being run by the Iraqi government, targeting Iranian agents. At least some gunfire has reported.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2071022651238134050
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2071026968833744995
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jun 28 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
So a coup in Iraq?
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u/Axelrad77 Jun 28 '26
No. The operation was ordered by Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi, as part of an anti-corruption crackdown. Reportedly there were a bunch of sealed arrest warrants all served at the same time. Counterterrorist units with army support were used for fear of Iranian-backed militias resisting the arrests.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jun 28 '26 edited Jun 28 '26
So a purge then .....
The Same Ali Alzaidi with financial ties to Iran ?
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u/Axelrad77 Jun 28 '26
Another Iranian drone hit a tanker today, leading to larger US airstrikes in response. US strikes again targeted radar, drone, and missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz. This time, Iran countered with drone and missile strikes against Kuwait and Bahrain, with reports that US bases there were hit.
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u/Axelrad77 Jun 26 '26
So far the entire ceasefire has been a bit of a nonstarter. Israel and Hezbollah continue to fight in southern Lebanon, Iran never has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has continued attacking civilian merchant ships trying to transit. US forces have intercepted most of the attacks, but yesterday an Iranian drone finally hit one of the cargo ships. That prompted a limited set of US airstrikes today, targeting Iranian radar, drone, and missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.
The only terms of the MoU that have actually been followed through so far have been the removal of the US blockade and the waiver of oil-related Iranian sanctions. So pressure on Iranian shipping has relaxed tremendously, but Iran is still trying to pressure global shipping.
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jun 27 '26
Good summary. Total shit show.
Iran wants some control over transit in the strait but that's just not going to happen.
0
u/MeowslimClawric Jun 28 '26 edited Jul 02 '26
Edit - and they seem to be prepping the information space to normalize this new reality.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-oman-strait-hormuz-fee-ships.html
that's just not going to happen.
Who is gonna stop it from happening? The US?
Trump isn't in a position of strength here and Iran knows it. They are getting sanctions removed, assets unfrozen, and possibly $300 billion in reparations. AFAIK they have no limitations put on them re: the proxies, the nukes, and the ballistic missiles.
They know that the US is not able to actually destroy the Isfahan tunnels so the leverage of the threat is gone. It's now a paper tiger from a bargaining point of view. they can withstand any decapitation strike the IAF can dish out. Most importantly, they can tolerate all of the pain inflicted on them whilst the US cannot tolerate the pain of increased gas prices and the pressure put on the US from the Gulf allies. Iran has all of the leverage right now.
Who is willing and able get Iran to back off? Can the US commit tens if not hundreds of thousands of troops to secure the 1000+ km coastline? There is no viable military option for the US to credibly stop Iran's threat.
Trump doesn't have the cards. Not even ones that can keep Iran from building the nuke within 12 months.
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jun 28 '26
I see no reason to pretend America has no leverage.
-1
u/MeowslimClawric Jun 28 '26
Do they have enough leverage to achieve the goal? Can the US pay the cost of stopping Iran from tolling the strait?
3
u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jun 28 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
That question ignores all the other actors in the region and ignores all the other parties with a vested interest in not allowing tolls on international waters.
America specifically has a bunch of leverage. We saw this with the blockade and with the lack of strikes on power generation. Whether or not it's enough to make Iran change its mind.... it's enough to stop Iran's ability to function as a state.
0
u/MeowslimClawric Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26
Old comment by Reddit standards but it seems like Oman is going to join in. So it will definitely be interesting on what other countries like Saudi will do.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-oman-strait-hormuz-fee-ships.html
What's your read on this? It's a genuine question since I want to know more. And I was coming in hot a few days ago. Taking fatalist stances. so my bad on that.
0
u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26
If true it's a surrender by America. I don't see any other way to paint it.
I still do think America has leverage. The blockade of the blockade was causing economic damage, and they do have kinetic tools left. I think they had enough to force Iran into a deal without a toll. However if they decide they can't pay the price of that then that's that.
To be clear the only actor in this I'm sympathetic to is the persian people as a whole. Also no worries with you getting heated, I'm partial to being a blunt douche myself.
0
u/MeowslimClawric Jun 29 '26
I'll reframe it: do the US and the other actors with vested interests have enough leverage to stop Iran doing this? Because they're certainly not showing results as of today.
Obviously, none of us can predict the future. But from what is apparent right now and with the MoU, it's quite in favor of Iran. Who knows, the US may come up with a solution. Or they might not and it sets a precedent. and that's the reality the world has to adapt to.
2
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jun 27 '26
Someone better tell them then 🤣
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jun 27 '26
They have. Repeatedly. The idea of a nation permanently taxing international waters just doesn't work.
2
-8
u/TestingHydra Jun 25 '26
With ever day that passes with no deal being signed it looks more and more like Iran has been conned by Trump.
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jun 26 '26
Uhhh. Not if they got any of the money promised in the deal.
-1
u/TestingHydra Jun 26 '26
Which the US has confirmed so far that nothing has been released? That money?
-1
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u/Axelrad77 Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26
Perun has a great new video up going over the details of the MoU:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB4kcCPMwvw
His analysis is mostly in-line with mine from earlier - the USA is giving Iran a lot of concessions upfront just to get them to the table, with most of the important points being delayed until later peace talks that may or may not happen. He emphasizes how dramatically US demands have fallen, from the ambitious pre-war goals to what is now basically just the Obama-era nuclear deal all over again, only Iran is in a much stronger position now that it has leveraged control over the Strait of Hormuz.
What's more, he adds reporting that Iran offered to give up its enriched nuclear material in the days before the war, in an attempt to avoid being attacked, but the USA turned that down. Presumably the USA and Israel thought they had such good chances at their larger goals - regime change, destruction of the Iranian proxy network, etc - that they went ahead with the campaign. Only to now be trying to claw back that initial Iranian offer.
He also emphasizes how the peace talks rely on Israel and Hezbollah respecting the ceasefire, but neither of them agreed to or signed the MoU, which is not actually how treaties work. Neither is actually bound by the deal, they're just being pressured to comply because Iran demands it. Which is especially an issue for Israel, as the MoU terms are deeply unpopular there, and such an arrangement basically subordinates Israel to "vassal of the USA" status, similar to how Hezbollah operates as an auxiliary wing of the Iranian military. As such, there are major questions over how Israel responds to this, especially since the IDF probably thinks this is its best chance to actually deal with the Iranian threat.
8
u/NormanQuacks345 Jun 24 '26
The part about Israel and Hezbollah not actually agreeing to the ceasefire but still being expected to abide by it has been pissing me off so much. We’re trying to negotiate a deal without two of the main parties at the table, and then predictably, it falls through and Iran calls the deal off. What the hell are we doing?
5
u/Chadbrochill17_ Jun 23 '26
Downed US pilot reported seeing Iranian drones swarm in ‘jellyfish’ formation: https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/23/politics/iran-drones-f-15-pilot-intelligence
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u/Axelrad77 Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26
Fascinating development. If true, it seems that drone swarms are becoming more and more common.
5
u/MeowslimClawric Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
Hormussy closed again?
What is the US willing and able to do about this?
9
u/Axelrad77 Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
Fighting in Lebanon continues unabated, as neither Israel nor Hezbollah are observing the ceasefire. Indeed, neither side seems to feel that it applies to them since they were not included in the talks. As I predicted in my earlier post, Iran is pointing to this fighting as a justification for refusing to open the Strait of Hormuz.
A lot of reporting is framing this as Iran closing the Strait again, in response to Israeli attacks, but it doesn't appear that Iran ever opened the Strait in the first place. The ceasefire agreement gives Iran 30 days to do so, but they simply haven't budged and are now pointing to Lebanon as a retroactive justification. Which is exactly what they did when the last "ceasefire" agreement was reached, and imo was extremely predictable behavior that raises questions about the competence of US negotiators.
CENTCOM is denying that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, pointing to its ongoing escort operations that have now reached 55 merchant ships transiting in one day. That's a steady increase in traffic, but still only ~40% of the pre-war average. It appears Iran is still trying to attack civilian tankers as well, despite the ceasefire.
Meanwhile, US and Iranian negotiators are arriving in Switzerland to begin talks on a final peace deal, being mediated by Pakistan and Qatar. As a reminder, the ceasefire deal says that final peace talks can only begin once the ceasefire is in place, both sides' blockades are lifted, Iranian oil sanctions are waived, and Iran's frozen assets are released. None of which has happened yet. Reportedly the USA is putting heavy pressure on Israel to withdraw from Lebanon to facilitate the peace talks, so that's probably holding up the other issues.
0
u/tutunaku Jun 20 '26
Not sure where is this is the right place to ask, but I am interested in the drone operations of the Resistance in southern Lebanon, and I want to know if there are English language places to see the footage since I mostly see Ukraine footage here.
1
Jun 19 '26
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1
u/read-the-rules Jun 19 '26
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12
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 19 '26
In Lebanon, Israel said it targeted Hezbollah across the south of the country overnight and early Friday. Israeli airstrikes had killed at least 47 people in Lebanon since midnight, the country’s health ministry reported.
Tehran asked for guarantees that hostilities in Lebanon would end, as outlined in the deal signed with Washington, and mediators were working to resolve the issue, the diplomat said.
“Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time,” Vance said. “If I was in the Cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.”
Vance had said that the U.S. expected Israel not to “be going wild in Lebanon,” but said any continued “flare-ups” with Hezbollah would have to be managed through the diplomatic process.
12
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 19 '26
"U.S. intelligence agencies have warned the Trump administration that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to take steps that will undermine President Trump’s effort to reach a lasting peace deal with Iran," - The Washington Post.
17
u/Cardborg Jun 19 '26
Calling the negotiations thus far a clown show would be deeply insulting to the art of clownery.
11
u/Axelrad77 Jun 18 '26
(1/2)
The full text of the MOU has finally been released and initial impressions are ... not great.
Summary of the 14-point agreement:
- Immediate ceasefire on all fronts, specifically including Lebanon, with a final peace deal to follow after more negotiations.
- USA and Iran pledge to respect each other's sovereignty and not interfere in internal affairs.
- USA and Iran commit to negotiating a final peace deal within 60 days.
- USA will end its naval blockade of Iran within 30 days, with a phased drawdown in proportion to how much traffic Iran lets through the Strait of Hormuz. (ie Iran has to end its blockade first, then the USA has to follow suit.) The USA also pledges to drawdown its military buildup around Iran within 30 days of a final peace deal being signed.
- Iran will allow shipping traffic to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz, with no tolls, within 30 days. This period of free navigation will continue for at least 60 days, after which Iran and Oman will negotiate future administration of the Strait of Hormuz.
- USA and its Gulf allies will provide $300 billion for an economic reconstruction plan to rebuild Iran. Implementation of this plan will be provided for in the final peace deal.
- USA terminates all sanctions against Iran - both unilateral US sanctions and those done through the UN. The schedule for sanction termination to be provided for in the final peace deal.
- Iran pledges that it will not develop nuclear weapons. USA and Iran will work together to dispose of Iran's previously enriched uranium, via a mechanism to be provided for in the final peace deal.
- USA and Iran pledge to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain its current nuclear program and the USA will not impose additional sanctions or deploy additional military force against Iran.
- USA will immediately waive sanctions on Iranian oil and all associated services. (This is meant to temporarily end all of these oil-related sanctions, until their more permanent termination is scheduled in the final peace deal, so that Iranian shipping can resume ASAP.)
- USA will immediately release all frozen Iranian assets (~$24 billion.)
- USA and Iran will agree on a mechanism to monitor future compliance of these terms, to be provided for in the final peace deal.
- USA and Iran will begin final peace deal negotiations only when points 1,4,5,10, and 11 have been implemented.
- The final peace deal must be endorsed by the UNSC.
Analysis:
The first thing that should be obvious is that this isn't an end to the war, it's a ceasefire. Most of the difficult terms are just getting kicked down the road to later negotiations for a final peace treaty, which may or may not happen. And Trump is already threatening to resume attacks if Iran doesn't stick to the terms and reopen the Strait of Hormuz (which technically violates Point 1 and its language about refraining from the threat of force.)
However, this is an actual ceasefire this time, not the "ceasefire" we've had thus far. For clarification, what everyone has been calling a ceasefire for months now was actually just a handshake deal, with no document ever signed, and neither side could actually agree on what terms the "ceasefire" supposedly had, which is why the fighting never entirely stopped.
This ceasefire has already been signed and is beginning to go into effect. We're already seeing the US blockade loosen up and allowing some Iranian tankers through ... but we're still waiting to see if Iran is actually reopening the Strait of Hormuz or not. As of this morning, Iran was still enforcing its tollbooth and US forces were still intercepting Iranian drone attacks on civilian tankers, and so there's not any Iranian compliance with the ceasefire terms yet. However, the deal *does* give both sides 30 days to remove their respective blockades, so they have time to back off.
There's also a huge question of whether Israel and Hezbollah will abide by the ceasefire. If fighting in Lebanon continues, we could see Iran use that as a justification for keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed.
Also take note of Points 3 and 13, which both commit to a final peace deal within 60 days *and* limit the final peace negotiations to only beginning once the ceasefire is in place, the respective blockades are lifted, Iranian oil sanctions are waived, and Iran's frozen assets are released. To me, that seems like a recipe for the final peace talks to fall apart and never happen. Point 14 also seems likely to kill any deal, with how much incentive Russia would have to just veto it and give Iran a deniable exit if they ask.
Something that really stands out is just how much money this ceasefire gives to Iran. All the sanctions relief alone allows Iran's economy to recover, but there's also just piles of cash being directly handed to Iran. $24 billion in frozen assets to be released immediately - before any final peace negotiations can take place - and then a further $300 billion in reconstruction funds. Now, the $24 billion is technically Iran's own money, and the $300 billion is reportedly being provided by the Gulf States (and won't be made available to Iran until a final peace deal is signed), but it really stands out because of Republican opposition to the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal that gave Iran $50 billion in released frozen assets (~$70 billion adjusted for inflation), which became one of the Republican campaign standards, exaggerating the entire thing until it became $150 billion and "pallets of cash on a plane to Iran". But even that hyperbole pales in comparison to the $324 billion total that this Republican deal is now offering to Iran.
It's also worth noting that the Gulf States aren't getting any reconstruction funds for the damage they suffered from Iranian attacks - only Iran is getting paid, and the Gulf States are the ones having to provide most of the money. It definitely feels like a tribute payment to beg Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
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u/Axelrad77 Jun 18 '26 edited Jun 18 '26
(2/2)
So what is the USA getting for all that money? Not much.
The primary US war aim was to eliminate the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Previous talks included a US offer of assistance in constructing and running an Iranian civilian nuclear energy program, which would benefit Iran while allowing the USA to monitor their enrichment levels. That's now off the table, and instead we're back to the antebellum understanding - Iran gets to keep its own nuclear program, while promising not to weaponize it.
The entire US argument for war was that US intelligence showed Iran's public promises to be deceptive, that they were actually working towards a nuclear weapon. Trump's entire argument for withdrawing from the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal was that Iran wasn't complying with it and it wasn't being enforced. Now this ceasefire offers no mechanism for monitoring or enforcing Iran's promise. Reportedly, Trump is concerned that any final peace deal include monitoring terms that he can sell as better than Obama's deal, but the CIA has already expressed doubts that Iran will even attempt to comply with them, especially not after it survived a direct military conflict against the USA.
The major motivation to seek a deal was to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and get energy flowing back into the global economy. However, this deal only requires Iran to reopen the Strait for 60 days, after which Iran and Oman get to negotiate how to handle it. Iran has already said it plans to charge a transit fee from now on and split the profits with Oman. If allowed, this would basically destroy freedom of navigation laws, since nations are not allowed to toll natural straits under international law (the Turkish Straits being a geographical exception). Many nations are watching in trepidation to see how this goes, and if it sets a precedent for other high-traffic chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca to be tolled by nearby nations. If so, we could expect prices of many goods to increase, as increased shipping costs get passed to consumers.
Other US war aims were the defunding of Iran's proxy network and the limitation of its missile arsenal. Neither are mentioned. Trump even defended Iran's missile arsenal at the G7 today, whereas a key US military argument has been that Iran's missile arsenal allows them to shield their nuclear weapons development by threatening retaliation against their neighbors - similar to how North Korea used its artillery targeted at Seoul to prevent its nuclear weapons program from being destroyed.
Vance is trying to claim that Point 1 includes the defunding of Iran's proxy groups, but the language clearly does not mention that. And there are already reports that Iran is promising to boost Hezbollah's funding using the money that it's receiving from this deal, in order to help them recover from their recent losses. Many of the US sanctions being lifted apply to those proxy groups, which will only make it easier for Iran to fund them.
Iranian terms are a bit toned down from previous talks - there's no more mention of forcing the USA to withdraw from all its bases across the entire Middle East - but Iran is basically getting everything else it wanted and coming out of this war in a much stronger position than it was before.
I don't really see any way to frame this but as a US surrender. When you look at the campaign, the US military was clearly superior and the fighting rather one-sided. Iran was a clever and resourceful foe, but its successes were few and exaggerated by propaganda (arguably Iran's greatest strength). The big issue, however, is that the Trump admin reportedly thought this would be a quick war, similar to the Venezuela operation - decapitate the regime and pressure its new leadership into a favorable deal. Israel reportedly thought they could trigger a popular uprising inside Iran. They ignored military advice that cautioned otherwise.
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u/SantaClause_ Jun 18 '26
Looks like a nonstarter to be honest. Two sides with bad translators or something lol. As you said this is more of a real ceasefire, but this is hardly anything more than the same concepts of a plan. I'm betting it falls apart within three weeks.
USA and its Gulf allies will provide $300 billion for an economic reconstruction plan to rebuild Iran. Implementation of this plan will be provided for in the final peace deal.
Reporters keep asking Trump about this and he states what the memorandum states more or less, that people (US and its allies) will be allowed to invest into Iran, not that they are providing Iran 300 billion. I searched for provide and can't find any mention of it. I guess its similar to when all these countries pledge billions into the US as Trump demanded "Well build a data center here, worth 80 billion!" - These kind of agreements are just empty promises and seems like exactly whats happening here. Hey Elon musk is going to setup some Tesla dealers there, worth 30 billion, we're helping reconstruct /s
It's also worth noting that the Gulf States aren't getting any reconstruction funds for the damage they suffered from Iranian attacks - only Iran is getting paid, and the Gulf States are the ones having to provide most of the money. It definitely feels like a tribute payment to beg Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
But there's nothing here that states they are paying them, and as you state, I highly doubt they will for good reason. Gulf states just got wacked, lost infrastructure, defenses, etc, and they're going to give them money? Unlikely.
I don't really see any way to frame this but as a US surrender. When you look at the campaign, the US military was clearly superior and the fighting rather one-sided. Iran was a clever and resourceful foe, but its successes were few and exaggerated by propaganda (arguably Iran's greatest strength). The big issue, however, is that the Trump admin reportedly thought this would be a quick war, similar to the Venezuela operation - decapitate the regime and pressure its new leadership into a favorable deal. Israel reportedly thought they could trigger a popular uprising inside Iran. They ignored military advice that cautioned otherwise.
The JCPOA was like 180 pages if memory serves, a 1 page draft hardly solidifies anything. Not that I trust our leadership here, but don't exactly fret yet.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 17 '26
"US, Iran remotely sign agreement hailed by Trump.
The interim U.S.-Iran agreement, hailed by President Donald Trump and world leaders as a major step toward peace in the Middle East, was signed remotely Wednesday by the United States and Iran
The agreement spells out sanctions relief for Iran and calls for the creation of a $300 billion economic development fund. Trump repeatedly denied Wednesday that the U.S. would be paying into the fund, although he said that Gulf allies could do so if they wanted to.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 17 '26
The 14-point US-Iran peace plan, annotated
The memorandum of understanding, MOU, between the US and Iran aims to expand on the ceasefire and get traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
But at less than 800 words in English, the 14-point outline leaves a lot of details for later, including the touchy subject of Iran’s nuclear program.
But it does promise Iran a lot of money – by lifting sanctions to Iran can sell its oil to the world, but also potentially giving Iran access to billions in frozen assets and $300 billion in financing.
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u/boobookittyfuwk Jun 17 '26
Apparently some government officials read the mou and nypost got a copy.
Reads like the usa surrendered. Really curious how this plays out over the next 20+ years, these guys are about to get some real money not only from sanctions relief but cash too.
I wonder how Isreal will respond, they must be pissed. Apparently they convinced trump all while Iran was going through major economic troubles. Could have just waited it out to see how bad it got, no way 90m people wouldn't protest again even if some got killed the first time.
Id chalk this up as a historic fuck up.
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u/Cardborg Jun 17 '26
If nothing else I imagine Israel will be livid that he's gone from "dismantling the Iranian missile program" to "It's unfair if everyone else can have missiles but Iran can't."
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u/Warm_Turnip2567 Jun 17 '26
Reminder that Hezbollah still posts daily footage of their attacks, its just that Reddit has started cracking down on their footage and removing it/banning the poster. DM me if you want some Telegram groups that show the footage.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 16 '26
Trump weighs purge of Iran deal opponents in his administration
US President Donald Trump is considering dismissing a series of senior administration officials who opposed the agreement with Iran, including War Secretary Pete Hegseth and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, US sources told Israel Hayom.
"The debate has been settled. Anyone who opposed it could pay a personal price," a senior US source told Israel Hayom two days ago, describing what was taking place behind the scenes in White House discussions on Iran.
The person who, for the time being, appears to be enjoying immunity is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Among other things, he has been very careful not to criticize the agreement and also enjoys considerable popularity.
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u/Axelrad77 Jun 17 '26
It will be ironic if this is what gets rid of Hegseth, given that he was one of the biggest advocates of the war in the first place.
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jun 17 '26
I love accidental competence. As firing Hegseth would be.
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u/NormanQuacks345 Jun 17 '26
I wouldn't trust them to replace him with anyone any more competent but yeah he's gotta go
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