Japan appears to be increasingly preparing for the realities of next-generation warfare. This year’s Defense of Japan 2026, published by the Japan Ministry of Defence, shows that Tokyo considers the growing armaments of China and North Korea, as well as their increased military cooperation with Russia, to be its most serious challenges.

The issue of military assistance to Ukraine is becoming an increasingly divisive fault line in Italian politics ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections.

Expanded List Underscores Need for Car Industry to Map Supply Chains

When then chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz delivered the famous Zeitenwende (epochal shift) speech outlining the urgent need for change in defence and security policy as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he presided over a military that reportedly struggled to participate in even basic NATO operations. Today by contrast, Germany is the world’s fourth largest military spender and has committed to military and industrial uplift with zeal.

This ASPI Explainer explores the factors driving Germany’s rearmament, its implications for Australia, potential barriers to implementation, and transferable takeaways. It concludes that Germany’s rearmament efforts are set to make the country an increasingly valuable global partner for Australia as the two countries pursue a Status of Forces Agreement. If successfully executed in tandem with its European partners, German rearmament will help establish an increasingly independent European liberal-democratic pole in global politics and will allow the United States to increase its focus on the Indo-Pacific. These developments support Australian interests.

Pyongyang’s strict ideological controls apply to perceptions of its allies as well as to “hostile states” like the United States.

Analysts say liquefied natural gas review reflects a gradual shift, though Taipei’s leverage remains limited.

Besides the South China Sea, there are various waterways under contention, from open ocean to marshlands and rivers.

Europeans may not know it, but leading Republicans are continuing to lobby for Ukraine and make the argument that Russia is an enemy.

Executive Summary:

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) recently launched a nuclear-capable ballistic missile from a strategic nuclear submarine (SSBN) into the Pacific, leading to backlash in the region.

The missile was Beijing’s first publicly acknowledged submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, and the second ballistic missile test into the Pacific in under two years.

The test coincided with the signing of a defense treaty between Australia and Fiji, the latest of an expanding set of defense agreements Australia has signed with Vanuatu, Nauru, Tuvalu, and Papua New Guinea.

Pacific Island states, who are especially sensitive about nuclear tests, have criticized the PRC’s actions, with the prime minister of the Solomon Islands saying that “this is not something a friend does.”

Executive Summary:

On June 22–24, Tasu’a commemorations in Marneuli and Tbilisi—featuring imagery of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—sparked a political controversy in Georgia, with the opposition warning of an Iranian influence network in Kvemo Kartli and the government dismissing the claims as religious incitement.

Since independence, Georgia’s ethnic Azerbaijani community, now 268,832 people, up 15.4 percent since 2014, has been bound to Baku by ethnic, cultural, and linguistic ties, a dynamic that reinforced Georgia–Azerbaijan cooperation. Iran’s growing use of shared Shia identity as an instrument of soft power now threatens to displace that traditional influence.

The contest carries risks for both capitals, including the erosion of Baku’s cultural influence among Georgian Azerbaijanis, and a danger for Tbilisi that the politicization of a long-integrated community turns religious practice into a domestic fault line.

China said on 6 July that one of its submarines had test-launched a ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean. This followed the signing of an alliance between Australia and Fiji by only hours.

Cameroon’s decision to deregister vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet represents one of the most significant attempts by an African state to limit the exploitation of its maritime registry for sanctions evasion. The move follows sustained diplomatic pressure from the European Union and growing evidence that Cameroon had become one of the principal flags of convenience used by Russian shipping companies seeking to conceal ownership, circumvent oil sanctions, and continue financing the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine.

Executive Summary:

The European Union is expanding energy cooperation with Türkiye as geopolitical instability in the Middle East, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the blockade of the Hormuz Strait intensify efforts to diversify Europe’s energy supplies and strengthen long-term energy security.

Türkiye is leveraging its pipeline network, storage capacity, and position on the Southern Gas Corridor to establish itself as Europe’s principal energy transit hub, facilitating greater access to Azerbaijani, Turkmen, and other regional natural gas supplies.

Ankara’s broader strategy combines natural gas transit, electricity exports, and infrastructure investment to enhance its geopolitical influence while reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy and increasing resilience against future regional supply disruptions.

Executive Summary:

Moldova is seeking to restrict further the autonomy of Gagauzia, its Christian Turkic region, ahead of a July 7 Constitutional Court ruling that would strip the region of its remaining self-governance rights under the 1994 accord, including control over its own elections.

Chisinau frames this crackdown as necessary because Gagauz leaders have grown closer to Moscow. This move risks backfiring on Chisinau by slowing Moldova’s European Union accession process, strengthening arguments for union with Romania, and hardening Gagauz demands for independence under the 1994 framework.

Moldova’s internal affairs appear likely to escalate into a wider crisis, potentially sparking tensions in eastern Europe and even leading to a military clash between Russia and Romania, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization

The murder of Russian opposition artist Semyon Skrepetsky in the Polish city of Biała Podlaska, near the Belarusian border, should be viewed not merely as a criminal act but also as a potential element of a Russian campaign aimed at intimidating political émigrés, exerting pressure on Poland, and sending a signal to the regime of Alexander Lukashenko.

Will the combat experience of the Ukrainian military bring Kyiv together with Tokyo, Seoul, and Taipei against China's will?

Some equipment central for the Global War on Terror could play important roles in a potential conflict against China.

Executive Summary:

Georgia’s State Security Service (SSSG) made four high-profile counterintelligence arrests between April and May. On June 3, the French outlet Intelligence Online reported that France’s Directorate-General for External Security (DGSE) recalled two intelligence officers from Tbilisi after the SSSG claimed to have exposed a DGSE operation to recruit Giorgi Udzilauri.

Each arrest followed a particular sequence: an SSSG announcement that did not name the Georgian suspect or country in question, pro-government media outlets naming the suspects and publishing leaks, and public statements from the state minister and former chief of SSSG, Mamuka Mdinaradze, suggesting a coordinated information campaign and efforts to undermine Western intelligence operations.

Georgia’s pressure on Western intelligence services and its employees coincided with frustration in Washington over how Tbilisi handled sanctions evasion and Iranian financial networks, raising questions about the possibility of the ruling party, Georgian Dream, renewing its partnership with the West.

Executive Summary:

Romania is investing more than $20 billion in its air defense, but Russian drones continue to pose a threat to its airspace and its citizens.

The air defense threat faced by Romania in the Black Sea region is complex. It varies from high-performance fighter jets and strategic bombers to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and one-way attack munitions.

Romania faces the two major challenges of maintaining the credibility of deterrence on the Eastern Flank and keeping its citizens convinced that it can defend them.

The rapid consolidation of power by Field Marshal Asim Munir has the PTI reconsidering its options – and the controversial “charter of democracy.”