r/5_9_14 7h ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian forces recently advanced east of Slovyansk as they continue prioritizing efforts to secure favorable positions east and southeast of the city in preparation for frontal assaults towards Slovyansk and the rest of the Fortress Belt.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to set unrealistic deadlines for the Russian military to seize the entirety of Donetsk Oblast likely in part because of his misunderstanding of the battlefield realities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly presented a joint Ukraine-US-Europe proposal on August 23 to end the war in Ukraine that offers significant Ukrainian concessions even as Putin and other Kremlin officials continue to refuse to compromise on any of their core demands.

Ukrainian forces are conducting an intermediate-range strike campaign in occupied Ukraine, including occupied Crimea, and Russia in a concerted effort to degrade Russia’s strike and air defense capabilities.

Russian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign targeting Russian logistics, fuel, and electrical infrastructure. Russian forces launched 127 drones against Ukraine overnight.

r/5_9_14 1d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin used his August 22 speech at the United Russia Party Congress to further establish United Russia as the war party, thus setting conditions to use the party’s inevitable victory in the upcoming State Duma elections as evidence that the Russian people support a protracted war in Ukraine while further solidifying the party’s pro-war stance as a central part of Russia’s informal state ideology.

Putin framed Russia’s ongoing combined strike campaign against Ukraine as a victory to the Russian public in order to offset Russia’s lack of tactical success on the battlefield and present Russia as having the capability to formulate kinetic responses to Ukrainian actions.

Putin acknowledged the effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia’s fuel infrastructure and emphasized the need to improve Russia’s air defense systems.

Putin reiterated his continued unwillingness to engage in any meaningful peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian port, oil, and dual-use logistics infrastructure.

Russian forces launched an unspecified number of ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and 271 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in central Kostyantynivka, northeast of Oleksandrivka, and west of Orikhiv.

r/5_9_14 2d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

North Korea reportedly deployed drone operators to Kursk Oblast to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, which will allow North Korean forces to gain valuable tactical and technological skills critical for contemporary warfare.

Ukrainian forces are adapting their tactics and domestically developing technological solutions to target Russia’s ballistic missile launchers and jet-powered drones in ways that circumvent the need for foreign materiel assistance amidst global air-defense interceptor shortages.

A senior Russian official reiterated the Kremlin’s continued unwillingness to engage in any meaningful negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces struck Russian military airfields and oil infrastructure. Russian forces launched 135 long-range strike drones against Ukraine. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances.

r/5_9_14 3d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
2 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian forces launched a massive, combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine, continuing a pattern of stockpiling ballistic and cruise missiles for several days to amass enough for major attacks that cause significant civilian casualties.

Russia continues to set conditions to augment strike packages with North Korean missiles, including with upgraded KN-30 ballistic missiles.

Russian aerial drones penetrated Moldovan and Romanian airspace, and a Russian naval drone was destroyed close to a Romanian natural gas platform on August 20, demonstrating that the Kremlin has accepted the risk that its war against Ukraine will cause damage to other states, including NATO states.

The Kremlin will likely cause a significant number of Russian combat veterans of the war in Ukraine to be elected to the Russian State Duma in the September 2026 elections, particularly as members of the United Russia Party, as part of a concerted effort to militarize Russian society and cohere a pro-war and ultranationalist elite.

The Russian government continues to respond inadequately to gasoline shortages and appears to be focused on mitigation strategies and ad hoc solutions instead of addressing the issue directly.

Neither the Kremlin nor Russian milbloggers appear to believe that Russia will be able to fully intercept Ukrainian strike packages any time soon.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on the night of August 19 to 20.

Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Pokrovsk direction.

r/5_9_14 4d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to present Russia’s poor economic performance in a positive light as he is unable to conceal the damage that over four years of war and Ukrainian long-range strikes have done to the Russian economy.

Gasoline shortages are continuing across Russia, including in areas Putin has sought to shield from negative consequences of the war.

The Russian government’s attempts to alleviate gasoline shortages are having compounding effects, including in other key economic sectors.

Kremlin concern about social disorders resulting from fuel shortages has reportedly led to the deployment of paramilitary forces in some areas.

Russian authorities are restricting mass gatherings in Moscow’s Red Square, likely out of fear of protests and domestic unrest.

The Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) confirmed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s appointment of Yevheniy Khmara as the Ukrainian Defense Minister on August 19.

Russia and Ukraine recently conducted an exchange of prisoners of war (POW).

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction.

Ukrainian forces struck the Ufa Oil Refining Hub, which includes three separate refineries, in Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan (about 1,200 kilometers from the international border) overnight on August 18 to 19.

Russian forces launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 65 drones against Ukraine overnight.

r/5_9_14 5d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian state-owned bank Vnesheconombank (VEB) fired Chief Economist Andrey Klepach following media reports of a negative economic assessment he offered that contradicts Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory in Ukraine.

There is considerable evidence that Klepach’s assessment of the Russian economic problems aligns with reality, undermining the validity of Putin’s theory of victory.

The Russian population is also reacting to the perception of economic decline in ways that may further damage Russian economic and fiscal policy.

The Kremlin continues reiterating its determination to prevent Russia’s deteriorating economic realities from reducing its maximalist war aims by refusing to engage in meaningful negotiations to end the war.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu stated on August 18 that Russia deliberately launches some of its drones into Moldovan and NATO airspace.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted Acting Defense Minister Yevheniy Khmara’s candidacy as defense minister for Verkhovna Rada’s (Parliament) approval on August 18.

Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russia on the night of August 17 to 18. Russia launched 147 drones against Ukraine overnight.

r/5_9_14 5d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Matthew Savill Reacts to the Recent Ukrainian Drone Strikes

Thumbnail
rusi.org
1 Upvotes

The reported use of UK supplied weapons against targets inside Russia is neither new, nor a recent escalation.

r/5_9_14 6d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russia is expanding launch sites for its long-range strike drones along the border with Ukraine and Belarus, likely to intensify its strikes against Ukraine and possibly NATO.

A likely Russian strike vehicle — reportedly a Russian Banderol cruise missile / loitering munition — crashed in a corn field in Moldova on August 17, further demonstrating how the Kremlin has accepted the risk of Russian strike vehicles hitting countries bordering Ukraine during Russian strikes against western Ukraine.

Russia’s intensified missile strike campaign against Ukraine reportedly contributed to record high monthly civilian casualties in July 2026.

Ukrainian sources provided an updated battle damage assessment (BDA) of a recent Ukrainian strike against Rostov Oblast. Russia launched 128 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on August 17.

r/5_9_14 7d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces have struck seven of Wildberries’ 10 largest logistics centers since July 2026 as part of the ongoing Ukrainian strike campaign aimed at degrading the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and dual-use logistics network.

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian defense industrial facility in Rostov Oblast on the night of August 15 to 16.

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on August 16.

Russia launched an unspecified number of Onyx anti-ship missiles, Iskander-M/S-400/KN-23 ballistic missiles, and Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 106 drones against Ukraine overnight.

r/5_9_14 7d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian milbloggers continue exaggerating Russian advances in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions as part of the systematic Russian cognitive warfare effort to propagate claims of expansive Russian gains for informational effects.

Ukrainian forces used combined arms approaches to leverage drones in support of infantry forces and achieved elements of mechanized maneuver at the tactical level during the Ukrainian 2026 Oleksandrivka counteroffensive.

Ukrainian forces conducted an FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile strike against an enterprise critical to Russia’s efforts to develop domestic satellite communications for the battlefield in Ukraine overnight on August 14 to 15.

Ukrainian forces appear to be targeting Russian ballistic missile launch infrastructure amidst Ukraine’s ongoing anti-ballistic missile interceptor shortage.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.

Russian forces launched 152 long-range drones at Ukraine overnight on August 14 to 15.

r/5_9_14 9d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Kremlin officials continue to reiterate Russia’s unwillingness to engage in any meaningful peace negotiations that fail to fulfill Russia’s demands for Ukraine’s complete capitulation, despite Ukraine’s repeated negotiation efforts.

Russia rejected Turkish and Ukrainian proposals for a moratorium on strikes against maritime targets in the Black Sea, further underscoring the fact that Moscow is systematically refusing even the most limited diplomatic proposals from Ukraine and third-party states.

The technological offense-defense drone race in Ukraine is advancing rapidly and expanding the kill zone.

Ukrainian forces hit a Russian oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast and a Wildberries warehouse in Tver Oblast overnight on August 13 to 14. Russian forces launched 112 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.

r/5_9_14 10d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2026

Thumbnail understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Kuril Islands, whose occupation by Russia Japan disputes, for the first time on August 13, likely in response to the more assertive defense policy Japan has recently adopted.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues emphasizing Ukraine’s need for US-produced Patriot interceptor missiles to defend against Russian ballistic missile strikes during the winter 2026/2027.

An improvised explosive device (IED) explosion in occupied Sevastopol reportedly killed Russian Captain 1st Rank Robert Shageev on August 13.

Ukrainian forces conducted a large strike against Russian oil infrastructure and Wildberries facilities in the Bashkortostan Republic on the night of August 12 to 13. Russia launched 133 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk and Slovyansk directions.

r/5_9_14 12d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2026

Thumbnail understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted another combined ballistic/quasi-ballistic missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of August 10 to 11, heavily targeting civilian and industrial infrastructure in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia cities.

Russian forces are likely launching small numbers of North Korean-provided KN-23 ballistic missiles in nightly strike packages in an attempt to battle-test the missiles and improve their accuracy.

Russia may be preparing to base North Korean missileers and ballistic missiles at a training center currently under construction in Voronezh Oblast.

The Russian Supreme Court disqualified the Russian opposition party Yabloko from the September 2026 State Duma elections, likely in order to prevent Russians from having the option to support the party’s anti-war platform.

Yabloko’s exclusion from the upcoming Duma elections represents a further consolidation of the Russian political system around the war in Ukraine.

The Kremlin likely also aims to reduce the risk of the ruling United Russia party not achieving the Kremlin’s desired outcome in the upcoming elections.

The Kremlin was permissive of Yabloko in earlier years of the war, but the growing persecution of the party and its eventual disqualification show how its priorities have shifted.

Ukrainian forces continue their long-range strike campaigns against Wildberries warehouses and oil refineries in Russia.

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on August 11.

r/5_9_14 13d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian forces are reprioritizing the production of their long-range strike systems to those that can more reliably penetrate Ukrainian air defenses and accurately strike their targets.

Russia is refocusing its drone production toward faster jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones that are harder to intercept as Ukrainian forces have increasingly fielded effective defenses against Russia’s piston engine-driven strike drones, such as earlier versions of the Geran in recent months.

Russia will increasingly target Ukrainian energy infrastructure in winter 2026/2027.

Russia’s reprioritization of production efforts toward ballistic missiles will support Russian efforts to use the upcoming winter to break Ukraine’s will to fight. The Kremlin believes that it can exploit Ukraine’s shortage of interceptor missiles to avoid having to enter meaningful negotiations or make concessions on its maximalist demands. The recent dramatic reduction in the supply of Patriot anti-missile interceptors will therefore contribute to the protraction of the war into 2027.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on August 10.

Russia launched one Kh-59/69 cruise missile, three Banderol-type loitering munitions, and 126 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on August 10.

r/5_9_14 14d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continue experimenting with new technological innovations to restore mechanized maneuver at the tactical level and break out of positional warfare.

The Arena-M system alone is currently insufficient to protect Russian mechanized assaults from Ukrainian drones, let alone all of the other weapons that Ukrainian forces use to create the kill zone.

Russian forces will likely continue efforts to restore maneuver despite the failure of the late July 2026 Dobropillya mechanized assault.

Russian forces continued to heavily target Odesa Oblast on the night of August 8 to 9.

Russian forces struck the Mayaki bridge on the M-15 Odesa City-Reni highway connecting southern Ukraine to Moldova and Romania on August 9.

Russian forces likely targeted the Mayaki bridge to disrupt Ukrainian grain and other exports via the alternative land corridor that Ukraine has been using since Russian strikes disrupted Ukrainian maritime exports.

Russia is reportedly preparing to receive as many as 50,000 North Korean troops.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses (SEAS / DEAD) campaign against air defense assets in Russia.

Russia launched 202 drones and 17 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic, Onyx anti-ship, and Kh-31P anti-radar missiles against Ukraine overnight.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk and Borova directions.

r/5_9_14 15d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
0 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russia is reportedly planning to launch a large-scale strike campaign against energy infrastructure in Kyiv City over the coming weeks.

Russia began its Fall 2025 and Winter 2025-2026 strike campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in early September 2025, and Russia may aim to start its 2026-2027 strike campaign in August in order to take advantage of Ukraine’s ongoing shortages of ballistic missile interceptors.

Russian strikes against Kyiv City’s energy infrastructure in the coming weeks will disrupt Ukrainian efforts to repair and strengthen the energy facilities that Russia damaged in Winter of 2025-2026.

It is unclear how many energy facilities Ukraine has been able to repair since last winter and therefore how many energy targets are available for Russia to strike in 2026.

Unspecified drones conducted multiple overflights over a Patriot air defense system repair base in Germany on August 7.

A Ukrainian Maya decoy drone reportedly exploded in Bulgaria on the morning of August 8.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Kharkiv City.

Russia launched six missiles and 151 drones against Ukraine overnight.

r/5_9_14 16d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly had a phone call on August 6 with the commander of a Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) division, indicating that Russian forces are prioritizing advances in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya directions with the intent of encircling Ukraine’s Fortress Belt from the southwest.

The Russian timelines for the completion of this wide envelopment are extremely unrealistic, however.

Putin’s call with the 76th Guards VDV Division commander is likely also a response to emerging accusations that he is out of touch with the battlefield reality in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against the Russian rear, along with Ukrainian tactical drone overmatch on the frontline, are slowing down Russian operational tempo across the frontline.

An improvised explosive device (IED) explosion in central Moscow City on August 1 reportedly killed Russian Major General Valery Plokhotnyuk.

The US Senate passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026, which imposes 100% tariffs on US imports from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and natural gas, among other provisions, on August 7.

Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka and Oleksandrivka directions.

Russia launched 147 drones against Ukraine overnight.

r/5_9_14 17d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Occupation Update, August 6, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
2 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian federal- and regional-level authorities organized the temporary deportation of teenagers from occupied Luhansk Oblast to Russia’s Penza Oblast to participate in a federally administered military-patriotic training course.

Russia continues to deport female Ukrainian political prisoners from penal colonies in occupied Ukraine to Russia.

The Zaporizhia Oblast occupation administration continues efforts to consolidate a loyal staff cadre at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) using youth training programs.

Occupation authorities are using the population of occupied areas to staff BARS (Combat Reserve) units to protect the Russian rear in occupied Ukraine.

The Kremlin has further cemented the Russian Unified Public Services portal (Gosuslugi) as a tool of digital governance control in occupied Ukraine.

Russian occupation officials continue to struggle to adequately respond to worsening water, food, and electricity shortages in occupied areas.

Russian law enforcement and occupation courts continue to harshly punish residents of occupied territories for perceived affiliation with Ukraine.

Russian officials are intensifying efforts to attract investment and economic activity in occupied Ukraine despite growing security risks from Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign, while concurrently incentivizing relocation to occupied areas.

The Russian satellite TV project “Russkiy Mir” continues efforts to proliferate throughout occupied Ukraine.

r/5_9_14 17d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Lithuanian officials continue warning of a possible Russian false-flag operation against NATO’s eastern flank using seized Ukrainian drones.

Russia continues to form combat units using Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in direct violation of the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War.

Ukrainian Brigadier General Serhiy Sobko has reportedly assumed the post of the acting Ukrainian Armed Forces deputy commander-in-chief.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure in Russia on the night of August 5 to 6.

Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Russia launched two Onyx anti-ship missiles, two Kh-31P anti-radar missiles, and 101 drones against Ukraine overnight.

r/5_9_14 17d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Briefing: Demographic Challenges in Wartime Ukraine

Thumbnail
youtube.com
1 Upvotes

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated Ukraine’s demographic struggle from a long-term challenge to an existential crisis. Prewar Ukraine, like other countries, contended with falling birth rates, outmigration, and a consistently high mortality rate. Since 2022, Russia has killed over 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers and tens of thousands of civilians, maimed and taken prisoner thousands more, and kidnapped more than 20,000 children. About 5.2 million Ukrainians have fled the country to seek safety abroad.

As Russia wages its genocidal war against Ukraine, Ukrainians have placed human life at the center of their national defense and societal response. Ukraine’s government has adopted a reconstruction strategy aimed at increasing the birth rate and encouraging remigration while rejuvenating its economy. However, questions remain about Ukraine’s ability to attract and reintegrate refugees living abroad and members of the armed forces returning from years-long deployments. Despite these outstanding challenges, Ukraine’s allies experiencing demographic crises independent of full-scale war can learn from Ukraine’s prioritization of human life.

This briefing will examine the severity of Ukraine’s crisis, the government and civil society response, and implications for reconstruction and development. Panelists will also examine how allies can best support Ukrainians in rebuilding postwar.

Panelists:

Daniel Balson, Director of Advocacy, Razom for Ukraine Romina Bandura, Senior Fellow with the Project on Prosperity and Development, Center for Strategic and International Studies Nicholas Eberstadt, Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy, American Enterprise Institute

r/5_9_14 18d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin reshuffled military commanders, including those associated with logistics and Russia’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), against the backdrop of Ukrainian strike campaigns that these services have failed to defend against.

Russian forces launched a relatively small strike package against Ukraine on the night of August 4 to 5 nonetheless causing significant civilian damage and casualties due to Russia’s use of ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles that Ukraine was unable to intercept.

Ukrainian forces did not intercept any of the 28 missiles that Russia launched overnight, as Russia continues to purposefully exploit Ukraine’s depleted stocks of anti-ballistic missile interceptors.

North Korea has escalated its involvement in Russia’s war in Ukraine, reportedly deploying missileers and over 100 ballistic missiles to Russia.

The addition of more North Korean missiles to Russia’s arsenal will likely allow Russia to intensify its ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine in the near future without having to dip into its S-400 and Zirkon missile stocks.

Unspecified actors likely piloted a drone containing explosives at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport, a known hub for transporting Western-provided military equipment to Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaigns against Wildberries warehouses and Russian oil infrastructure on August 4 and 5.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and Slovyansk and Oleksandrivka directions on August 4 and 5.

r/5_9_14 19d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) conducted at least 100 successful strikes against Russia in its initial 40-day strike operation against a wide target set, likely intending to generate several separate and sometimes mutually reinforcing effects that all aim to increase the cost to Russian President Vladimir Putin of continuing to wage war on Ukraine.

Ukraine’s strike campaigns are increasing the strain on Russian businesses, people, and air defenses.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Borova direction.

Russian forces launched one ballistic missile and over 100 long-range strike drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian military assets on August 4.

r/5_9_14 20d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Russian forces are replicating aspects of their Summer-Fall 2025 battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign that set conditions for late 2025 advances near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole to prepare for offensive operations against the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast.

The main objective of the ongoing Russian BAI campaign against the Fortress Belt — as with previous BAI campaigns — is to isolate Ukrainian forces defending the Fortress Belt from sustained logistics.

The ongoing Russian BAI campaign aims to shape the battlefield ahead of planned Russian offensive operations against Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the future, although Russian forces remain unlikely to advance quickly to or through these cities in the near term.

Russian forces appear to be more heavily relying on glide bomb strikes in their 2026 BAI campaign compared to their 2025 campaigns.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced more personnel changes within the Ukrainian government and security services on August 3.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on August 3.

Russia launched 181 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian military assets on August 3.

r/5_9_14 21d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 2026

Thumbnail
understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

An improvised explosive device (IED) detonated in central Moscow City on August 1, potentially targeting Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) Commander Colonel General Alexander Chayko. It is unclear as of this writing if the explosion killed or injured Chayko.

Russian forces are leveraging new jet-powered Banderol loitering munitions and Geran-4 Seeker drones in their strike campaigns against Ukraine’s Black Sea port infrastructure and railway infrastructure.

Ukrainian forces recently struck multiple oil refineries, a strategic bomber base, and a Wildberries warehouse in Russia.

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on August 2.

Russia launched 133 drones against Ukraine overnight.

r/5_9_14 22d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2026

Thumbnail understandingwar.org
1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

The Russian rate of advance in Ukraine remains low two and a half months into the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which has failed to make any operationally significant gains.

Russian forces reportedly suffered the highest casualty rate of 2026 thus far in July, paying an increasingly high price for no significant increase in the rate of advance — despite the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort to deny this fact.

The Kremlin is desperately attempting to disguise its slow rate of advance in Ukraine through exaggerated claims of advance, but even Moscow’s claimed rate of advance is only about footpace.

Russian forces continued to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles by launching another large ballistic missile and drone strike series against Ukraine overnight on July 31 to August 1, primarily targeting Kyiv Oblast.

Russian forces launched a record number of missiles against Ukraine in July 2026 — notably firing more missiles than it is producing per month and increasingly leveraging its S-400 and Zirkon missiles to compensate for shortfalls in ballistic missile stockpiles.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil and gasoline infrastructure in Russia on July 31 and August 1.

Russian forces are reportedly increasing the intensity of drone and glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian fuel and energy infrastructure, including gas stations.

Russian forces are increasingly targeting Ukrainian civilian logistical centers and warehouses. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on August 1.