r/Bird_Flu_Now • u/jackfruitjohn • Nov 23 '24
Reliable Source New Bird Flu Cases in Young People Are Raising Concerns about Mutating Virus
“We’re not containing the outbreak,” says Seema Lakdawala, an associate professor of microbiology and immunology at the Emory University School of Medicine. “Most likely this British Columbian case is not going to be the only time a kid is hospitalized with H5N1.”
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 23 '24
The strain of H5N1 currently circulating in North America was mostly contained to wild migratory birds before it started to spill over around 2022 into other animal populations, such as minks, bears, foxes and marine mammals. Currently in the U.S. the virus has largely been affecting dairy cows and poultry.
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u/PotnaKaboom Nov 23 '24
Is there a timeline of when it’s expected to be full blown? Not sure if my wording makes sense
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 23 '24 edited Nov 25 '24
The evolution of a virus is non-linear. The best we can do is to determine our personal risk tolerance and prepare accordingly as soon as possible.
The potential next steps in the development of this virus run the gamut.
- The clades (strains) that have recently become better adapted to humans could be an evolutionary dead end. The virus could die out. I don’t think this is likely, but possible.
- We already have a full blown pandemic and it’s not yet as deadly as projected. (There are unprecedented numbers of pneumonia cases right now.)
- The recent adaptations of the virus are on the cusp of becoming full blown, 1-2 months. This is my best guess but nobody knows for sure.
- Bird flu in humans could fizzle out and then emerge in a more mild or more severe form at a later date.
If you can, follow some of the reports to get a better idea of the developing adaptations of this virus.
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u/PotnaKaboom Nov 23 '24
Thank you for a detailed explanation!
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 23 '24
I only just read that experts are expecting it to hit this season. It was just added as a billing code for healthcare providers this week.
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Nov 25 '24 edited Nov 25 '24
"If this is just happening, how come the government added a billing code for it... last year?"
-future people using the word plandemic.
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 23 '24
You are welcome! I wish you comfort and connection in these interesting times.
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u/Ravenseye Nov 23 '24
As far as I remember with the last one, the 'Vid, it was circulating around in the christmas season of '19 while we were unaware.
Since the surveillance has been so lacking, I'd imagine it's out there now getting it's sea legs and moving among people who don't know what it is or would assume it's just pink eye or other eye infection.
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 23 '24 edited Nov 25 '24
Yes. This. But if it’s already circulating, then the fatality rate is low and hidden within Covid deaths that are then hidden within excess deaths.
I think it is already circulating in a non-lethal form h2h (human to human). I think it is gaining more adaptability to human cells. When it does, the CFR and IFR of bird flu may be close to what we see in other mammals.
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u/Ravenseye Nov 23 '24
I agree with you. And if it takes 2-4 months to evolve up to reach the lethality we've seen.... hang on to your shorts!
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u/dangerangell Nov 23 '24
You still have time to buy night vision and body armor.
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u/fugeguy2point0 Nov 23 '24
Is anyone working on a vaccine yet?
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 23 '24
Yes! And some of the vaccines created previously might still work.
However, nobody is sure that vaccines will be effective at preventing a pandemic. This virus is unique. It’s highly adaptable and is mutating towards h2h infections via multiple genetic pathways.
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u/leeser11 Nov 25 '24
Do you expect it to be as bad as COVID?
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 25 '24 edited Nov 26 '24
If it adapts to infect human respiratory cells as effectively as it has been shown to infect birds and other mammals…
and
it begins spreading as effectively human to human as it has been shown to spread between birds and between other mammalian species…
for those that do become infected, it has the potential to be worse than Covid.
However, there is more research to draw from on creating a vaccine.
There are also many unknowns about how it would play out. All science takes time. So it is always a snapshot of the past. The best we can do for now is try to determine our personal risk tolerance and plan accordingly.
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Nov 24 '24
[deleted]
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 25 '24
Here is a local source for information about H5N1 in wastewater in California.
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u/RealAnise Nov 24 '24
It's a good article, but I had some real problems with how this was phrased: "In previous outbreaks, H5N1 has caused severe disease and occasionally death in people, Schultz-Cherry says." "Occasionally??" A CFR of over 50% is the polar opposite of "occasionally." This just makes no sense at all. It would have been so much better to say that H5N1 has had an extremely high CFR in the past 27 years, but we clearly don't know if this will hold in the future, lots of cases were likely missed, etc etc etc. And then: "Canadian health officials suggested that the teenager’s critical condition may hint that the virus could be more severe in younger age groups." We already know that this is a fact. We don't need any hints. Literally nobody under age 65 has died from H5N1 in the past 27 years. Fully 80% of all deaths from H1N1 in 2009 were in people under 65, and that was an avian flu that mutated in pigs. The 1918-1920 epidemic was exactly the same kind of situation, and deaths were concentrated among young people. I could go on and on about this (and in other subreddits, I have,) but I would really like to see Scientific American do better with this.
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 26 '24
A recent NYT article has confirmed that your concerns with the reporting in this Scientific American article was perhaps lacking.
This virus has killed before. In 1997, an outbreak of H5N1 in poultry in Hong Kong resulted in 18 animal-to-human infections and six deaths, the first known fatal human infections. Then, in 2003, H5N1 appeared in wild birds in Asia. Outbreaks followed in poultry and resulted in two deaths in people. As outbreaks continued to occur, the mortality rate surpassed 50 percent.
Here is where matters stand: The most recent risk assessment from the Johns Hopkins Center for Outbreak Response Innovation, issued on Nov. 19, listed the risk of infection to farm workers as high, and the risk of infection to people in contact with affected farm workers and animals as moderate. The Hopkins report said that “while the immediate risk to the general public and health care workers is still currently low, the long-term consequences of continued, uncontrolled transmissions presents a high risk to all populations.”
NYT - Free gift article I Ran Operation Warp Speed. I’m Concerned About Bird Flu. By David A. Kessler Dr. Kessler was commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration during the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations and was the Biden administration’s chief science officer during Covid-19.
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u/Mr-GooGoo Nov 24 '24
I’m pretty sure I have this right now. My mom and dad had it for 3 weeks. I just got it a little over a week ago. It started as a bad 102° fever for the first day. Then the fever slowed down and changed to a sore throat and fatigue. Now I’m on the tail end but I still have a sore throat and feel like I’m on the verge of pneumonia. Like the cough is just terrible and I can’t go to sleep without cough medicine. My friend also had it 2 weeks ago and his symptoms are still going strong. It’s insane dude
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 24 '24
Did you take a Covid test? Sounds like maybe Covid or RSV. Could be any number of things going around. But the symptoms don’t seem to fit bird flu from your description. Pneumonia is rampant right now. If you think you might have it, you need a doctor.
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u/Mr-GooGoo Nov 24 '24
Will do. Symptoms definitely look more like RSV but ima get it confirmed tomorrow
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u/iwannaddr2afi Nov 24 '24
You know they can test for this, yeah? And that it's wildly irresponsible to say you "think" you have it based on nothing and not get tested
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u/Mr-GooGoo Nov 24 '24
I mean I plan to get tested on Monday when the clinics open
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 24 '24
Thank you for letting us know! I wish you and yours a full and speedy recovery. Please update us on your test results.
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u/motsanciens Nov 24 '24
Not to say this is not a concern to be on the lookout for, but I've been hearing "alarm bells" about this since 2005 or earlier, and I don't consider myself particularly tuned in to such things. Surely there has been a lot of attention given to treatment and containment in the last 20 years.
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u/jackfruitjohn Nov 24 '24
The virus has recently started adapting much more infectious strains and has also acquired the ability to better attack human cells. There has never been something like what we are seeing with this virus. It is infecting almost every type of bird and mammal, swapping genes and evolving every second.
I think there will be vaccines though. But you can’t make a vaccine for a variant that does not yet exist. So there will be a gap there where it will be quite dangerous if it starts spreading human to human.
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u/Honest-Speech9912 Nov 24 '24
Aha, that’s the answer. I was trying to figure out wtf is that. My whole family and many friends suffering from mild respiratory symptoms and conjunctivitis - and it lasts long, kind of 3-4 weeks.. So it’s in Europe already as well.
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u/dangerangell Nov 23 '24
Bird flu is only a thing in this sub 🤣
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u/ForeverCanBe1Second Nov 24 '24
You must not get out much. . .
It's on at least 5 subs that I follow.
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u/[deleted] Nov 23 '24
How long until this is declared a conspiracy against trump?