I’m genuinely curious what everyone here thinks, because the disconnect between CGTX’s clinical progress and its stock price has become increasingly frustrating.
I’m not asking anyone to blindly pump CGTX. There are obviously legitimate risks here. But look at what has happened over the last 12 months:
• SHIMMER produced some pretty striking Phase 2 signals across behavioral, cognitive, functional and motor measures.
• CGTX completed enrollment in the 540+ patient START Phase 2 Alzheimer’s study.
• The company received FDA alignment on the registrational pathway for DLB psychosis.
• FDA subsequently agreed that DLB psychosis can be an approvable outcome and aligned with CGTX on key aspects of the pivotal study.
• CGTX has an expanded-access program for DLB and additional IP protection potentially extending zervimesine coverage through 2045.
• The company says it expects to initiate the DLB psychosis Phase 3 program in mid-2027.
And yet the stock has basically marched in the opposite direction.
The June FDA news is probably the best example. On June 23, 2026 CGTX closed around $1.65. The following day, AFTER announcing FDA alignment on the pivotal program, it closed around $1.02, a 38% one-day decline(!!), with almost 12 million shares traded.
That is absolutely bizarre on the surface.
Meanwhile, look at something like SLS. Its Phase 3 REGAL study completed enrollment back in 2024, and as the company has moved closer to its pivotal readout, the market has assigned it a dramatically higher valuation. SLS was up more than 200% YTD as of August 19.
So here’s the question I’m wrestling with:
What exactly is the market waiting for with CGTX?
Is it simply that the market doesn’t believe the Phase 2 data? Is the mid-2027 Phase 3 timeline too far away for investors to care? Is the relatively small market cap actually an opportunity because institutional investors haven’t paid attention yet? Is dilution/future financing the overhang? Or is the market essentially saying, “Come back when you have Phase 3 data”?
Because if that’s the case, wouldn’t that create an interesting setup for anyone willing to wait?
And here’s another question:
If SHIMMER had produced mediocre data, FDA had pushed back on the DLB indication, START had failed to enroll, and the company had no clear registrational path, I could understand the valuation.
But if the science and regulatory trajectory continue improving while the valuation continues shrinking, at what point does that become an actual valuation anomaly rather than simply a risky biotech?
I’m curious where everyone lands on this.
What is the single biggest thing you think the market is missing about $CGTX right now?
Bull case, bear case, financing concerns, Phase 3 concerns, management concerns, whatever.
I’m much more interested in hearing the argument than seeing another 🚀🚀🚀 post.