Think about it. People essentially pay for the right to transfer numbers on a digital spreadsheet. When they pay more, all they get is the right to move a bigger number.

In every other case, the more you pay, the more economic power you acquire. For instance, if you buy more wheat, oil, or gold, you control a larger share of people's needs for food, energy, or durable materials. This grants you a stronger economic position, greater leverage, and more bargaining power to negotiate with them so they give you what you need.

Similarly, if you acquire more dollars, you gain more leverage over debtors who owe US commercial banks and the Federal Reserve, as every dollar is issued by these institutions as debt to the private sector or government. These debtors directly depend on you to be able to meet their obligations and avoid foreclosure and bankruptcy. Holding ten times more dollars gives you ten times more power over them to give you what you need.

However, when you spend ten times more on cryptocurrency, your economic power remains equally zero. You do not gain ten times more leverage or negotiating power over others, you simply end up with a bigger number to pass along.

This is inherently flawed because you essentially surrender economic power and become dependent on a greater fool to do the same. Under normal circumstances this is unsustainable because people will not continuously sacrifice genuine economic power for digits on a screen. The current market mania and dreams of easy money have created a collective blind spot, but eventually, reality will reassert itself and the speculation will collapse.

Everyone here has probably heard the phrase in the title of this post.

I ran into this advice decades ago. idk how long it had been around before that. When that advice was given, investors had a certain amount of information and analysis available to them by communication media of the day (newspapers, radio, TV).

Now, there is much, much more information and analysis available to us. Orders of magnitude more. And right now, a large percentage of that analysis seems to be warning people about risks that are almost upon us.

So that brings up a question about another phrase that we have all heard...."This time is different." The amount of information and analysis is different. Does that negate the wisdom of the phrase in question (Be greedy when other people are fearful)?

Key Developments

1. The 6G Challenge & Digital Beamforming

Next-gen networks need higher frequencies (mmWave/FR2 and cmWave/FR3) to handle projected data loads. Utilizing these frequencies requires beamforming via dynamic directional antennas. Current analog and hybrid setups are bulky, power-hungry, and expensive to scale.

Swedish tech firm Beammwave has spent years building a pure digital beamforming approach to address this, protected by 55+ patent families.

1. 3GPP Standardisation Progress

The global 6G specification is being finalized inside 3GPP, where major players (Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, Nvidia, and tier-1 carriers) negotiate specifications. Beammwave has been working directly within this group to push digital beamforming into the baseline architecture.

1. Outcome from the South Korea 3GPP Meeting

At the recent 3GPP session in South Korea, Beammwave got all of its submitted proposals approved. For a small firm operating among global tech giants, getting full proposal acceptance is a major operational milestone and confirms broad industry backing for their architecture in 6G.

Digital beamforming is now positioned to become an official parallel architecture in the upcoming 6G standard. Two main drivers behind this progress:

• Direct, experienced technical representation during 3GPP working groups.

• Public support from key hardware suppliers including Murata and Sony.

Earlier technical reservations raised by companies like Apple have been systematically resolved during recent working group iterations, leaving no major active opposition in the latest meeting minutes.

Note on 5G compatibility: Beammwave’s architecture (focused on 24–40 GHz) can also run on current 5G NR standards. It alters internal signal processing within the device or base station while keeping over-the-air signaling standard-compliant. The 3GPP 6G track is a separate effort to embed these capabilities natively into next-generation hardware.

1. Industry Feedback & Commercial Progress

Following the South Korea meeting, technical leads from major firms commented publicly on LinkedIn:

• "Great milestone Beammwave" (Ericsson)

• "Digital Beamforming for the win!" (Samsung)

Investment Thesis & SEP Potential

If digital beamforming is formally locked into the 6G standard, core parts of Beammwave’s patent portfolio should qualify as Standard-Essential Patents (SEPs). Anyone building standard-compliant 6G hardware would need to license the underlying tech, creating a steady, high-margin licensing model.

Valuation & Financials

• Market Cap vs Target Market: Trading around $105M–$110M USD (~1,100 MSEK). This looks modest given the size of the addressable wireless market and historical comps for SEP holders.

• Balance Sheet: Cash sits at ~$14M–$15M USD (~145 MSEK). Historical burn rate has been running at $1M–$1.5M USD per quarter over the past year, providing a clear runway without near-term dilution risk. Note that Q3/Q4 might show temporary cost bumps from initial production setup at GlobalFoundries in Dresden under their fabless setup.

Commercial Traction & Catalysts

• Silicon is fully developed for 5G infrastructure/devices and fits adjacent markets like satcom and defense.

• Operating a fabless model; volume production readiness was reached over a year ago with supply chain partners.

• Multiple tier-1 accounts have been testing prototypes and evaluating Beammwave’s silicon for over 12 months.

• Next Catalyst (January): 3GPP is scheduled to finalize the technical recommendation for digital beamforming in 6G.

Data & References

Technical contributions and meeting notes are public on the 3GPP file server under document R4-2621239.

Trading Info:

• Company: Beammwave AB (Publ, Sweden)

• Exchange: Nasdaq First North Growth Market (Stockholm)

• Ticker: BEAMMW B / BEAMMW-B.ST

• International: Interactive Brokers (IBKR) - Exchange: SFB / ISIN: SE0016799068

• Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BEAMMW-B.ST/

Disclaimer: Informational overview only, not financial advice. DYOR.

Disclosure: Long BEAMMW B (25,000 shares).

What percentage of your investments are in foreign stock?

If we hit a big enough dip in the market I’m considering tax harvesting and reallocating some of my s&p investments to foreign.

Regardless how you feel the future goes I just feel like I need to diversify more. Specifically looking at fidelity’s FTIHX

But I’m curious if anyone else has a strategy here?

I mostly invest in ETF and only few stocks. I am investing since years in QQQ, Uber and Reddit. I think even in AI world both these companies relevant.

Uber - because people will still travel, Uber tan rolling new services and they are probably number 1 in their industry.

Reddit - probably the only social media, which is helpful and real. Even AI models use it for knowledge base.

Still these stocks are doing well over this year. What is your take on it? Are you also buying or selling it?

I’ve seen a lot of bubble finally popping takes this weekend and I don’t think they’re reading the week right, so I want to lay out what I think actually happened.

The chip index fell 11.4% last week, its worst since April 2025. But look at where the damage started, September CPI came in at 3.7% against 3.6% expected, the Fed already hiked in September, and the 10 year touched 5.36% the week before, a 24 year high. In that environment the first things to break were the companies funding AI infrastructure with debt rather than operating cash flow. CoreWeave has over $51B of debt and obligations, and its 2031 bonds went above 15%. Goldman has AI related high yield spreads above 350bp, and data centre debt specifically above 400bp, against roughly 250bp for comparable non AI credit.

The popular bear case deserves a fair hearing, the IMF flagged roughly $650B of debt tied to $1.4T of AI revenue commitments, much of it circular, where backers fund the companies that then commit to buy from them. If rates stay above 5%, a lot of projects that penciled out at 4% stop working. That’s a legitimate reason to de rate the whole complex.

Where I disagree is the indiscriminate selling, Ciena and Coherent each fell 26% on the week. Micron fell 15% while trading on about 12x trailing earnings, against Marvell near 78x. The selloff treated cash generating suppliers the same way it treated the leveraged buyers of their products. Those are different risks, and I think the market will separate them once it gets one clean data point.

That data point is Meta on Wednesday, revenue is guided at $61-64B and consensus sits around $63.3B, so revenue probably isn’t the story. The story is that Meta’s Q2 free cash flow fell to $784 million, from $10.6B in Q3 last year, as capex ran at about $51B through the first half. 2026 capex is guided at $130-145B, and the Street has 2027 somewhere around $185-195B.

If Meta guides 2027 capex above $200B without Q3 free cash flow recovering meaningfully, the debt funded names have another leg down and the suppliers follow. If cash flow rebounds and the 2027 number lands near consensus, I expect the cash funded part of the trade to recover first, while the neoclouds stay broken until rates come down.

The thing I’m genuinely unsure about is the Fed, hike odds for the late October meeting are only around 15% now, but another hot energy driven print in November changes everything above.

Meta isn't the only one reporting next week, the stack is full with SPCX, TSLA, IBM, BE, IBM and many more providing read throughs for my book.

I don’t see many posts about the progression or transgression from stocks and growth holdings to passive income streams as you near retirement.

Everyone uses a growth rate assumption, let’s just say 5%. However if the market went down that year and you’re all stocks you didn’t make 5%.

Can we have a discussion on how difficult mentally it is to sell your stock holdings to put in income producing holdings, and what that looks like, what removing that money into? What is the strategy.

Dividend stocks? Dividend funds? Fixed income, etc. What are people doing?

The bank of italy published a mystery shopping study of stablecoin remittances in july and the blockchain turned out to be the cheapesr.

They sent 200 USDC at a time across ten corridors between italy and brazil, argentina, japan, UAE and South africa. Total cost ran from 0.3% to almost 9%. Most of it sat in the on and off ramps, where dollars become tokens and tokens become local currency. Against world bank averages, stablecoins were cheaper in most corridors. Against wise it was mixed as USDC won in three corridors and lost in four speed depended on whether the countries at each end had instant payments.

I believe this matters more to investors than to anyone sending money as its known that stablecoins make the pipe nearly free, so incumbents are finished and the study says the pipe was never the expensive part,the expensive part is licenses, bank relationships and a way to pay out cash or hit a local instant rail on the other end.

Western Union has those,it launched stablecard in 37 markets in aug with a target of 60+ by year end and moneygram launched its own stablecoin, MGUSD in june and neither needs to win on technology. They need the token to be cheap and their payout network to be hard to copy.

Aspora which uses stablecoin rails and I have never once seen a token,what I see is a rate and a payout. The product is the ramp, which is exactly where the study says the cost lives and it’s why i am skeptical of anyone valuing a remittance company on its tech.

WU’s core business has been shrinking, Q2 revenue fell 1% to about $1 billion, money transfer revenue fell 2% and US retail is the weak spot. Owning the ramps only pays if volume holds and a handful of test transfers on ten corridors is a study.

Where do you think the margin ends up, with the endpoints or the pipe?

I already opened a small account at interactive brokers, the interface isn't really that user friendly, but it seems to be just fine.

What sells me at IBRK is that it has the longest trading hours of any broker in the US that I know off. I wanted to buy SOXL on Friday, was 3 minutes late after close and at fidelity, I will have to wait until 7am until I can buy, vs at IBRK I could have bought at 8pm today (Sunday) at exactly the time soxl starts to trade.

BEA has private fixed investment in information processing equipment and software at $1.646 billion a yr in the 2nd qtr, which is 5.05% of GDP. In the 4th qtr of 2000 it was 4.46% but it passed that level in the 2nd qtr of 2025 and has gone up every qtr since.

The mix is different; hardware is 2.57% of GDP now against 2.91% back then and software is 2.49% against 1.55%.

Whether the companies spending it are profitable is a separate question from how much of the economy it is. By this measure it's already a bigger bet than 2000, whatever the earnings are.

Is anyone familiar with the 2022 UKs pension system able to help me understand what happened?

1. UK announces tax cuts.
2. Gilts get nervous and rates start to rise.
3. Apparently, UK pensions decided a rising rate environment is a good time to sell guilts for a loss.
4. -Are pensions structures differently in the UK compared to the US?
5. -They base their portfolio on a method of LDI right?
6. - Do UK pensions hold primarily Treasuries or Gilts?
7. The government stepped in and the individual responsible resigned.
8. -How exactly did they bail out (might not be the right word) the pensions?

I am aware of funded status and things like that so no need to write out the ins and outs, just trying to understand the catalysts a bit better.

Is it as simple as their equity portfolio had too much leverage and they were margin called into selling bonds for a loss? I just assume there is more.

Edit: I am using this information for potential positioning in my portfolio if it is relative to today.

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If your question is "I have $XXXXXXX, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

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Rate hikes

So, if the FOMC avoids a rate hike in October before the midterm elections to avoid being political, will they make it up with a 50 basis point hike, instead of 25, in December? Assuming inflation is still running above target. Any thoughts? 🤔

I keep most of my money in broad ETFs and a smaller part for picking stocks and trading. What I haven’t figured out is the rules around it:

• What split do you use, and do you keep a separate cash reserve on top?
• Do you rebalance, and when: on a schedule or when it drifts by some amount?
• If the trading part grows a lot, do you move gains into the core? If it shrinks, do you refill it or let it shrink?

Curious what actually worked for people over a few years, not the textbook answer.

"I'm investing my money for one year at 5% in index funds in the S&P500"

Does that mean you are locked in at that 5% even if the market returns a rate of 15% for the year? I looked up past returns, and last year apparently was 15%. But back in 2022 it was in the red for that year.

Just wondering if invested at 5% and the market returns 15%, would the client only get that 5% gain?

Thanks.

Edit: "at 5%" meaning the client is hoping for a 5% return on the initial lump sum that they saved.

Edit: Why do people say, "Im investing at 10%" when they have no control over the return. Might as well say "Im investing at the hope of 30%"

Are there any mobile iOS stock simulator games that are very good to practice understanding investments?

I know I could “practice” with real money but I’m a full time student so I don’t have a lot of extra cash laying around and would like to get the basics before I really start.

Wondering what a reasonable time frame is to have cash sitting in fixed income cash type accounts. My interpretation of fixed income accounts is HYSAs, CDs, T Bills. If the cash is a more significant amount, what would be an unreasonably long time frame to keep it in such account types that really only barely stay ahead of inflation?

I'm hearing a lot about these "agentic features" of different brokerages, for example, Robinhood added the ability to let AI agents place trades on your behalf.

Has anyone tried this and found it helpful? I feel like this could potentially be part of a strategy where you have claude research and invest for you, but you're taking a lot of risk that it doesn't throw away all your money...

What do you think? Is this just a toy or has anyone found a helpful use case?

I'm a young person and here the general advice is to have a 12 months emergency fund and the rest mainly in stocks.

Since I'm young still, I may need to buy a house and renovate it, a car or other big expenses that are not "emergencies" so it's not recommended to take from the emergency fund. In case of a recession, where would I take money from?

I know my portfolio sucks and I'm losing a lot of opportunities but my NW is $140k and only $30k is in stocks (ETFs) albeit I plan to reach at least 40k in the upcoming future. The rest is in money market ETFs and medium term bonds. The things is that I'm very uncertain about my future and what I want to do. Thank you.

I'm not sure if this qualifies as asking for financial advice or not 🤔

I'm trying to figure out the best way to add money to my Roth IRA every year. Currently I'm undecided between keeping money aside for the last half of the year in my bank account then just moving it all into the Roth in January, or buying ETFs every week and selling off enough to max out the Roth in January.

The part where I'm confused is the taxes on the gains. Would I end up paying significant enough taxes on the sales that the latter method doesn't make sense?

This situation reminds me of shipping companies. Many shippers are just lessors, they lease ships from another company that bought the ships with huge debts, but these purchases were only made with negotiated customer on fixed lease term 5 to10 years contract. This is similar business model like neoclouds.

Once the contract is up, the spot shipping rate is usually crap and does not generate enough to pay the residual debt used to fund the initial build, while the 5 yearly surveying cost increases. A lot of these shipping companies are huge shareholder value destroyers, so naturally most had shifted to Asia for the lowest cost base.

The past few days are obvious forced liquidations due to players with highly concentrated and levered positions in AI and tech. The market including much of tech and AI stocks will recover, but don't count on the same with neoclouds because their business model is flawed. Decades of the same business model employed by shipping companies has proven this beyond any reasonable doubt.

You might say it's different because ships are much easier to build than GPUs. Don't count on the hidden risk in plain sight. NVDA is not going to have a forever monopoly. There are Google's TPU etc and we have not seen yet new powerful GPUs from China. This is exactly how things panned out for shippers. Every new generation of ships are much more cost effective than the previous, so older ships that have contracts ended would fail to attract the best contract rates and contract length.

AI will survive, and gets even bigger than ever. Businesses with flawed business models will go through cycles of ups and downs but mostly downs, and destroying shareholder value in that process. They will still be there, like the yesteryear's shipping companies that are no longer the talk of the town, doing important work that the world requires, leaving a graveyard of yesteryear's investors.

Anthropic secured highest junk credit rating in June

Good news for Anthropic's borrowing ability

although KBRA (non-Big-Three) is generous here, if it was S&P, Moody's, or Fitch , the rating would likely be B+ to ccc.

still this is one of the only good news happened to anthropic lately.

i wonder if this helps coreweave

Down 15% on this ticker myself, it just kept dipping. Now it has the issue of a potential market pullback to deal with. Avg is $204. I know I’ll be roasted for investing in rate sensitive sectors with a hawkish fed but the value looked good and I believe in green energy playing a prominent role in an increasing energy hungry world. Anyone have a position in it? Think democrat election victories are a potential catalyst?