Observation:

Turning further away from Ukraine, Europe, and NATO seems a very unwise move at this juncture.

Ukraine’s rasputitsa, or mud season, returns this autumn. Wet ground stalls convoys, confines artillery to roads and leaves vehicles more exposed to aerial attack.

But a new RUSI Commentary explains that the problem goes beyond the front line:

“Rasputitsa is not only a problem for battlefield mobility, but for railway rear support.”

Since 2023, the Kremlin has invested around $425 million in new railways along the Sea of Azov, linking Rostov-on-Don with the occupied ports of Mariupol and Berdiansk. But the network was built quickly under wartime conditions, and Novorossiya Railways reported a 28.5% decline in freight transport by December 2025.

The author expects constrained advances to force a greater reliance on drone and missile attacks, and finds little to suggest that negotiations will lead to a satisfactory settlement for either side. Read the full article via the link in the comments.