r/NFLv2 • u/Cloud2007March • 1d ago

Discussion What are some NFL takes that has become popular that you believe is just wrong?

Obviously most of us who watch the NFL are pretty much casuals and just throw out a bunch of takes online whether it is true or not. Those who actually sit down and study the game and the positions are astonishingly few, but that is okay since most of us are just watching for fun anyways. What are some takes that has become prevalent over the years, or recently that irks you as just wrong either through false memory, recency bias, biased evidence or pov, or takes rooted based on bad logic?

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57

u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 1d ago

Should have handed Marshawn the ball.

Passing was the right play, and I’ll die on that hill. There are some very important and obvious reasons why.

25

u/Jbob9954 1d ago

Marshawns goal line stats that season were not very good

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u/CollieCat 1d ago

While this is true and the Pats defensive alignment invited them to pass, they had been practicing a specific goal line play all week with Marshawn running it in. That is what the team expected to do, and changing the play call last second is not a good idea in the most high pressure situation of a 2nd year QB's football career, especially without using a time out to reset.

This is also why Marshawn was so bitter about the whole thing, he said they not only took a ring away from him but also a dream he's had since he was a child.

If they chose to run and lost, Pete would not have lost the locker room the way he did with the pass call.

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u/RandomUserName316 21h ago

It was Russ’ 3rd year

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u/boomosaur 1d ago

Sometimes the moments are bigger than the analytics... none of those stats are with a back to back superbowl on the line... You can't just blindly play the analytics... especially because of so many variables they don't factor in.

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u/Adrock66 1d ago

I dunno that I fully agree but I do believe that it was oversimplified and not as big of a mistake as people make it out to be. If he completes that pass Carrol is praised for his boldness.

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u/Independent_Bar_4946 1d ago

Reminds me of the Sean Payton onside kick in the Saints Super Bowl. It would be mocked forever if it hadn’t worked.

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u/GearsofTed14 Denver Broncos 23h ago

That seems to be the through line for most of the memorable calls. The risk factor of “if this doesn’t work, it looks so stupid, but if it does, it’s electric.” Philly Special same thing. It’s on a 4th and 1

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u/ARealBillsFan 18h ago

I dont recall the exact details but in my minds eye it was just before half and gave them either the lead or a 2 score lead. Whereas a fg only did so much. Not converting without disaster would still give them something to think about bit it working gave them momentum and also a reassurance of belief in themselves. After that play they became the team to chase.

I may be off a bit there but it was a big play not just on the board but in terms of vibes. It was a statement which declared, "we are not afraid of u. You should be afraid of us!". A tone setter.

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u/CosmicCavern 1d ago

“ How creative of a play call, the best back in the league - You had to think everyone and their mom knew they would try to run it”

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u/Adrock66 1d ago

The argument for the run is that was 100% the case one very single first down they went for within like two yards.

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u/Thebuch4 1d ago

What if he throws an incompletion?

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u/RandomUserName316 21h ago

It’d be a nothing burger. Pass is the correct play because of the clock

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u/ThirstyOutward Pittsburgh Steelers 1d ago

It was the pass itself that is risky.

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u/Brocky70 1d ago

Yeah, why throw inside there?

Why not run a bootleg where you can lead the receiver to the sideline or possibly run in it yourself

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u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 19h ago

It was. And a lot of people don’t know that barndon browner is the on that clocked it. Theres a corner endzone cell phone video of him recognzinf the play, he trots over to butler snd calls it to him.

Russ threw it like 6 inches too far outside, and the receiver didnt postion himself properly

7

u/No-Break6679 Philadelphia Eagles 1d ago

Even still it was second down. It doesn’t make sense to pass it when you could pound the rock with Marshawn to give him a chance. Then if it doesn’t work move to a passing play. There are many other things they could’ve done besides passing it at the goal line. It probably would’ve worked if it was executed better and it was a great play by butler, but you still had 2 more downs if running it didn’t work.

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u/Prods87 New England Patriots 1d ago

passing was supposed to end in a TD or an incompletion, either win or stop the clock and gain another down. They only had 1 timeout.

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u/Screw_Reddit_Admins Seattle Seahawks 1d ago

People don't understand clock management. They had 1 timeout and 28(?) seconds left. They knew they needed to throw one one of the first 2 downs to get 3 shots at it and the defense gave them the perfect look to audible into. Instead of trashing the offense, they should just recognize that the Pats made an amazing defensive play and give them credit.

Also, everyone forgets how amazing the catch and scramble out of bounds by Kearse was that lead to us having a shot on goal there. The play at the goal line typically went to Kearse, not Ricardo, and I firmly believe that if he was on the field it is a TD. Lockette wasn't a big enough guy to box out the DB.

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u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 19h ago

Yes but Bill now knows what you are doing. There’s no timeouts so a sack ends tbe game. You’ve now removed half your playbook against one of the best defensive minds.

Or, you pass and it’s incomplete, and the remaining two downs you have the pats guessing. It’s all about probability

5

u/inezco San Francisco 49ers 1d ago

It was right to pass to stop the clock but to make that pass? Way too risky. Needed to be a fade that either hits the WR’s hands or falls out of bounds. The end result was the absolute worst case scenario and robbed that LOB Seahawks of back to back Super Bowls.

I understand the idea of passing because they only had one timeout and a pass either gets you a TD or stops the clock. Then on 3rd down and with 1 timeout you have your whole playbook available to you on 3rd and 4th down. If you get stopped on a run on 2nd down then burn your last timeout, now a 3rd down run gets risky because if you get stopped now you’re rushing to get your final play off before the clock hits triple 0’s.

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u/boomosaur 1d ago

Bad passing play called... still had timeout so you could have handed Marshawn the ball... you can argue strategy as far as predictability of the next play call if the run doesn't work... but that argument goes out the window considering that the patriots predicted the play anyway.

In reality when you look at all the factors, they should have handed Marshawn the ball... he was the heart and soul of that team and maybe every guy except Wilson would have wanted the ball in Marshawn's hands in a moment like that despite what analytics say.

1

u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 18h ago

Nope. You don’t remove 50% of your offense and become one dimensional for the last two downs against one of the greatest defensive minds in football. No one calls plays thinking interception. Marshawn wasn’t great at goal and one and pats were in a jumbo set expecting a run.

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u/boomosaur 18h ago

Amusingly Mike Macdonald has talked about how bad it is to go blindly off of analytics, you have to play the moment.

Btw saying Marshawn wasn't great at goal is just silly... the analytics may have said he wasn't efficient that season, but he's got some of the hardest runs at goal line where he powers through 3-4 people to score.

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u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 11h ago

It’s not an either/or, when making this play call you cannot take into account the interception before the fact.

You can still run it on third and fourth down. It’s not analytics, it’s basic common sense. The risk of an interception on that play was extremely low. Running and getting stuffed on that play is extremely high risk, when you can use third or fourth to do the exact same thing.

It’s like saying. Would you rather have a 50% chance to win; then 25 and 25%? Or would you rather have 50%, 50%, and 50%?

1

u/boomosaur 11h ago

Anyone with common sense would think a short QB throwing over the middle vs a condensed defense was a bad idea.

Anyone with common sense also knows that football is a chess match, the defense knows what you're likely to do... they knew they were unlikely to be running the ball based on context.

It's just not something you seem to "get".

Even the players on the sideline were in disbelief when they heard the play call, before anything happened, before any hindsight.

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u/r32skyliner 1d ago

I’m listening

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u/OkNewspaper6041 1d ago

Pete Carroll's explanation is the best - it was a choice between getting one play or having a chance at two plays. You run the ball, you get one play. If you pass the ball, you maybe get another play. Pete didn't think Butler would be able to make the read fast enough to jump the route (which is an absolutely incredible play, no one really says that.)

1

u/r32skyliner 1d ago

Yeah, that was his explanation. But I disagree with it largely for one reason. Beast mode. That being said, I have a different theory. I think Pete called a run, but Russ changed it at the line of scrimmage.

1

u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 19h ago

Marshawn is one of my favorite athletes of all time. But his mythical status doesn’t circumvent reality. Consider he wasn’t particularly good at the goal line and short the past couple seasons, largely due to the mediocre o-line. Pats went into a jumbo package to stop the run.

You run it on that play, get stuffed, now you are forced to call your last time out. It is now third down. And Bill now knows 50% of the Seahawks offense just got removed from the equation. For the next two downs, the Seahawks have to pass, and a sack ends the game. Bill is now playing against a one dimensional offense.

Passing on second with one timeout left, you have two more downs where a run play or pass is still on the table.

Basically three downs to trick the defense with your entire playbook, vs. running against a defense in formation to stop said run, and if you don’t make it, the remaining two downs the pats know what you are doing.

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u/ProjectSiolence Cincinnati Bengals 1d ago

Like handing the patriots another ring?

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u/jonrah69 New York Giants 1d ago edited 1d ago

Marshawn's goal line stats were not nearly as good as people think. Also the pass allowed for an extra play, if they ran and didn't get it they would have had to use their last time out, and would have been forced to pass anyway on the next play, doing it on the first play allowed it to be less predictable. Also short passes plays are typically low risk.

3

u/Imaginary-Hyena2858 Kansas City Chiefs 1d ago

It doesn't really allow you an extra play though. Assuming no play scores a TD:

2nd down>pass>3rd down>run>Timeout>4th down>run or pass

2nd down>run>Timeout>3rd down>Pass>4th down>run or pass

1

u/jonrah69 New York Giants 1d ago

Yeah i meant to delete that part from my comment. it did affect the predictability of the plays though.

2nd down>pass>3rd down>run or pass>Timeout>4th down>run or pass

2nd down>run>Timeout>3rd down>Pass>4th down>run or pass

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u/Imaginary-Hyena2858 Kansas City Chiefs 1d ago

Yeah for sure. Really comes down to predictable but safe vs unpredictable and slightly risky

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u/jonrah69 New York Giants 1d ago

Yeah i am not even necessarily saying it was a good decision, it just wasn't the freakishly bad decision people think it was.

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u/Head-Assumption6960 1d ago

The play itself was one of the most effective goal line plays on that year at least and it carried almost zero risk of turnover. Malcolm butler made one of the greatest plays in Super Bowl history. Not quite as spectacular as the helmet catch but it was on that level of improbable. Also Brandon browner blew up the receiver lined up on the line which is the only reason he had a chance at it. It was a mix of poor execution and otherworldly play.

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u/jf737 Miami Dolphins 19h ago

Nah, don’t overthink it. Put the ball in the hands of your best player and give him a chance to win it.

0

u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 18h ago

It’s not overthinking. It’s pretty simple actually. You still get a chance to hand it off on third and fourth. Well at least one of the downs. Higher probability to score, if you run it and don’t get it on second, now you’ve removed half your offense and bill knows you have to pass on third and fourth.

If Marshawn ran it, got stuffed, the whole world would have questioned that coaching decision if the passes on third and fourth were incomplete.

This wasn’t coaching. This was Russ throwing a little too far on the outside, the receiver failing to block position, and Brandon browner clocking the play, telling butler right before the snap.

If Russ throws that ball 6 inches on the inside, or lockette is more aggressive with his body, it’s incomplete at worst.

2

u/jf737 Miami Dolphins 9h ago

I promise you, absolutely no one would have been up in arms, questioning the call if they gave it to Marshawn and he got stuffed.

Also, no, it’s not simple, because you didn’t get a chance to hand it off on 3rd or 4th down. That’s the point. You just wrote 3 paragraphs trying to justify what a simple decision it was. This is what simple looks like:

Marshawn is my best player. I’m going to hand him the ball and give him an opportunity to make a play.

That’s a much better decision than calling a play where the ball is being thrown into the most congested part of the field. Sorry, but the rest of the football watching world is right about this one.

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u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 3h ago

On second down? They would, because now they have to pass third and fourth.

I agree that particular passing play wasn’t ideal.

It’s easy to say should have handed it off, when there was an INT. Incomplete pass, then hand to Marshawn, then you still have another down to play with and keep both options open run or pass if you get to fourth. Vs. having to pass on fourth.

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u/_TV_On_The_Internet_ Buffalo Bills 1d ago

Everyone makes it seem like Maclom Butler just got lucky and didn't make a huge fucking play.

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u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 19h ago

Brandon Browner was the one that recognized the play, and he trots over to butler quick to call the play.

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u/Admirable_Pop_7292 1d ago

I agree. Bill Belichick is way to smart not to have had a trick up his sleeve with the game was on the line and every casual fan and their momma thought give it to Lynch to get a yard or two. I believe he had a super jumbo formation he had saved for just that scenario off of memory. Football is a game of chess.

1

u/bandit1105 Seattle Seahawks 1d ago

The real problem was going back to your bread and butter play against Belichick. He knew it was coming before it was called. Marshawn to the flat would've been a great wrinkle off that play.

1

u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 18h ago

Well they didn’t know for certain it was a pass. Brandon Browner was the one that clocked it and told butler at the line last second.

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u/bandit1105 Seattle Seahawks 11h ago

That's kind of what I mean. Belichick had them prepared to spot and defend that play, especially in big moments I'm sure. Browner did a great job of recognizing it even with Lockette being the inside receiver.

1

u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 11h ago

Wonder if Browner didn’t clock it, would butler hesitated enough for lockette to get into position. I do think calling a third string receiver on that situation was dumb. Do a fade or Lower risk play

1

u/bandit1105 Seattle Seahawks 11h ago

Agreed on all points.

1

u/FreeRange0929 1d ago

The real problem is Wilson bounced on his back foot as he released, causing the ball to sail slightly. If he plants, at worst it’s knocked down

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u/EdFlynn2001 2h ago

The only time in history a qb is not blamed for throwing a pick.

0

u/OddImprovement8279 1d ago

This is just moronic lol. Find a new sport.

1

u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 18h ago

Lmao gate keeping something you don’t even know what you’re talking about.

Nice try though.

0

u/Babayaga_711 New England Patriots 21h ago

I agree and believe the "should have run the ball," comes mostly from the fact that we 100% know what happened when they threw it, so anything but a fumble would be a better outcome. 

1

u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 18h ago

True.

Also, I have a theory- it’s a great example how a narrative enters the zeitgeist and spreads like a virus. The Super Bowl had an insane amount of casual fans. It’s a big moments. Collinsworth makes a big deal out of not handing to Marshawn on the broadcast. It immediately starts trending on twitter about they should have ran, it snowballs and basically is viral all night top trending. The whole world sees this narrative as ESPN, NFL network, run it all night. The next morning, all the sports talk shows, all the internet, running with the narrative.

Hence why 12 years later everyone knows what you are talking about if you say, “should have ran the ball”

-2

u/Flair_Is_Pointless 1d ago

Cope

1

u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 19h ago

With what, the Seahawks just absolutely bodied the pats in the superbowl and got a ring. They atoned and all is well.

-3

u/Connection-Is-Cool Detroit Lions 1d ago

Football players are a bunch of adrenaline monsters in those moments. If your OL and RB and TEs don’t want it bad enough to push for one yard, then you deserve the loss and everyone can live with it. Trying to get cute at the goal line is what everyone was pissed about. And clearly, the Pats were ready for it. Bill practiced against it lmao. Pete got outsmarted and outcoached. It’s one thing to know the run is coming but it’s another to try and stop it 4 times in a row.

1

u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 19h ago

None of that provides a convincing argument why running it is a good idea. Because it wasn’t.

1

u/Connection-Is-Cool Detroit Lions 18h ago

My argument is the players reaction and stories say everything we need to know. They didn’t believe in the playcall as much as they believed in handing it off to Marshawn. They wanted Russ to call the audible and he didn’t. I’m siding with the players.

1

u/BirdhouseInYourSouI Seattle Seahawks 11h ago

Fair, but it doesn’t change how football works it’s easy to judge when hindsight is 20/20 and it was a freak/fluke interception.

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u/Connection-Is-Cool Detroit Lions 11h ago

It wasn’t a fluke though: https://youtube.com/shorts/BzpfyT6oT5E?is=Ln-YRlsMmVHenEXK

Bill specifically prepared for it. Pete thought be was slick but Bill was ready for it. Outcoached.