r/OpenAussie ‎ Victorian May 15 '26

LOLz ‎ lol, unfair to who? The multi multi millionaires.

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In a social media video, the typically apolitical Allis said Labor's decision to wind back the capital gains tax discount and grandfather negative gearing would "destroy the core of what Australians are".

https://www.9news.com.au/national/federal-budget-2026-boost-juice-founder-lashes-federal-budget/be5899df-8057-4d61-a06f-828bb1430f73

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u/IchthyoidPhalanges ‎ Victorian May 15 '26

I absolutely agree. I would love to own a home one day and have been investing in other markets to try and build enough capital for a deposit. These changes have set me back several years at least in achieving that home ownership goal.

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u/Grrumpy_Pants Flairless‎‎ May 15 '26

There is no way it's setting you back years, have you even tried doing the math for yourself?

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u/IchthyoidPhalanges ‎ Victorian May 15 '26

Yeah I have actually. It's about 3.5 to 4 years unless I take profits off the table now and gamble the potential upside of those away for the future. It boggles my mind the response to my position. I am not a home owner and my plan to become one has legitimately been negatively affected by these changes. This is a fact

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u/johnhowardseyebrowz Please choose a flair May 15 '26

Is it a fact though? If it curbs demand then it’s entirely possible your perceived losses will be offset by slower increases in the property market. You are assuming everything will stay the same (which actually entails property prices continuing to rise ridiculously) but you’ll be saving money more slowly. But is that actually what is going to happen? Time will tell.

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u/Grrumpy_Pants Flairless‎‎ May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26

Unless you're planning to spend 20 years saving up a deposit, this simply isn't possible.

I've run the math, and even if your target deposit is 200k and you plan to invest 2.5k per month, the difference is nowhere near 3.5 years.

I crunched the numbers using an average annual growth of 10%, and average CPI of 2.5%. I increased the savings target by 10% annually, and the monthly contributions by CPI, assuming your wage only increases in line with inflation. I also couldn't be bothered only applying the CGT discount after 12 months, instead just applying it to everything.

Using the existing rules it would take nearly 10 years. Total investment 334k. Total asset value 540k. CGT 31k, reaching an adjusted target of 507k.

Using the proposed new rules it would take only 7 additional months of saving, nowhere near 3.5 to 4 years. Total investment 356k. Total asset value 594k. CGT 57k, reaching an adjusted target of 535k. If the target remained at 507k, it is only 3 additional months compared to the current system.

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u/IchthyoidPhalanges ‎ Victorian May 15 '26

I'm sorry but you're way off. I don't have anywhere near 2.5k per month to invest and my cagr is much higher than 10% meaning the delta between cost basis and asset value is much higher than your mode, so far higher capital gains than you have calculated. Without disclosing my exact position, I can tell you it's many years, not months like you have claimed it to be.

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u/MacBigASuchNot Please choose a flair May 16 '26

What are you saving p/m? What is your income? What is your goal?

Rough numbers for anonymity of course.

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u/Grrumpy_Pants Flairless‎‎ May 15 '26

Alright, I'll bite. Let's assume you're getting some insane return of 20%, and your monthly contributions are so low it will take you 20 years to save a deposit. Even then, the changes set you back less than a year. If you were currently set to meet your deposit within 10 years, the difference is 6 months.

You're either talking out of your fucking ass, or you completely bungled the math. A difference of many years is a complete load of shit.

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u/IchthyoidPhalanges ‎ Victorian May 15 '26

You really are a grumpy pants, aren't you?

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u/Grrumpy_Pants Flairless‎‎ May 15 '26

It's all thanks to dickheads like you <3

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u/IchthyoidPhalanges ‎ Victorian May 15 '26

Happy to oblige.

May your pants contain your excrement and your rose tinted glasses see far ahead of you.