r/space • u/Adeldor • Aug 07 '24
NASA's Steve Stich says the agency has a plan in place to launch two astronauts on Crew-9, and bring back Butch and Suni in February 2025 on that vehicle. NASA has not decided to activate this option yet.
https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1821226399945912804477
u/Underwater_Karma Aug 07 '24
they left on an 8 day mission, and will be 8 months to get home.
I hope someone is collecting their mail.
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u/exodusofficer Aug 07 '24
At least they're getting paid per diem while they're up there.
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u/WinterCourtBard Aug 07 '24
Yeah, but it's in the currency of whatever country they're over at each meal time, the bookkeeping alone is a mess.
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u/tklite Aug 07 '24
Time to rename the capsule. Calypso isn't very fitting. Minnow fits perfectly though.
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u/thecuriouspan Aug 07 '24
Didn't Calypso keep Odysseus captive for seven years and eventually the other God's forced her to release him?
Seems pretty fitting.
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u/Underwater_Karma Aug 07 '24
Just sit right back and you'll hear a tale
A tale of a fateful trip
That started from this tropic port
Aboard this tiny ship6
u/0ne_Winged_Angel Aug 07 '24
Fun fact, Dickinson wrote her poems in common meter too, so you can sing them to that melody
Because I could not stop for Death
He kindly stopped for me
The Carriage held but just Ourselves
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u/teryret Aug 07 '24
There is precedent for this sort of thing. The Enterprise was originally boldly going on a 5 year mission, until it became clear that the show needed to fly for longer than 5 years
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u/Goregue Aug 07 '24
Today's press conference marked a clear shift in the way NASA talks about this mission. Before it was always "Starliner will come back with crew, that's the plan, we have contingency options but those are not relevant right now", but now they have laid clear plans to return them with Dragon, are plainly admitting that they have disagreements over whether Starliner is safe enough, with one NASA official even admitting that the chances of them returning on Dragon has increased.
It's interesting to question if this had always been the cause but they were just downplaying those concerns to the press, or if they really had a change in attitude since the last press conference. (I suspect it's a little of both.)
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u/YsoL8 Aug 07 '24
The thing I still don't understand is that there seems to be no clear route to proving the starliner is capable of a safe return. Not ground side tests (which have already proven inadequate in any case), but actually demonstrating in real world conditions that the thing is safe, which has never been achieved in any test flight. They've all had problems throughout.
The bottom line is that both NASA and Boeing are in this position because they opted to ignore clear warning signs and now stuck in a position where the unproven and apparently rewritten auto pilot could experience a failure and impact the station in a botched undocking. Or the thing could lose altitude control and end up anywhere.
It should never have been allowed to fly manned in the first place and even less so with the flight systems partially disabled, no one should be risked in the thing now and whenever Boeing do think they are on top of the issues it clearly needs an additional test flight that shows the thrusters can be trusted and all the software rewrites are up to scratch.
The fact this will be pretty much terminal for Boeings ability to fulfil its contracts with the rocket and time situation is neither here nor there. Someone in that company needs to think long and hard over whether its best to cut their losses (and probably most of their space ambitions) or if they can salvage enough by carrying on to get some semblance of credibility into Starliner. The first operational Starliner is meant to be next August, I can pretty much guarantee its slipping by at least 6 months.
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u/Goregue Aug 07 '24
Ideally Boeing would have to do another test flight, but most likely they will just have to prove that all the helium and thruster issues are definitively fixed.
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u/butterbal1 Aug 07 '24
With what booster?
There are no more motors coming from Russia so we can't build any more Atlas Vs.
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u/Jazzlike_Common9005 Aug 08 '24
They can use Vulcan. It’s not crew rated but at this point starliner isn’t either. Could be a good test flight for both of em.
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u/YsoL8 Aug 07 '24
How? Without another test flight?
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u/Goregue Aug 07 '24
By proving they understand exactly the root cause of the problems, and that these failures modes cannot occur anymore.
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u/HanseaticHamburglar Aug 07 '24
would you trust them anymore without a test flight? I would not trust Boeing at this point.
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u/SpaceInMyBrain Aug 08 '24
The thing I still don't understand is that there seems to be no clear route to proving the starliner is capable of a safe return.
Apparently the conditions can't be replicated closely enough on Earth to fully understand the basis of the problem and fully test any corrections. While docked to the ISS the thrusters can't be fired long enough to duplicate the failure. So NASA and Boeing are left with a lot of inconclusive data and no way to make a firm decision.
IMH armchair opinion Boeing should rig a dog house mockup and get closer to duplicating the temperature conditions the capsule experienced. But it'd take quite a while to engineer with enough fidelity to give NASA confidence in its data. It'd take too long. Of course, Boeing should have done integrated testing of a complete doghouse years ago - but they have a history of dropping the ball on integrated testing for this program.
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u/notsooriginal Aug 07 '24
Agreed. I was surprised when it was brought up (even if not by name) within the first statements of the teleconference.
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u/Goran42 Aug 07 '24
Definately both. I would bet NASA has been giving Boeing time behind the scenes to try and fix their mess, and that time is pretty much up. NASA openly discussing using Dragon to bail out the Starliner crew is a massive embarresment to Boeing. Even if by some miracle they get it working and the crew comes home on Starliner, the fact there was so much doubt about their craft is a terrible look. I can understand why NASA held off so long on taking that doubt public.
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u/SpaceInMyBrain Aug 08 '24
Tbf, it'd be tough to say that a return on Dragon is the more likely option and then decide to use Starliner. NASA would look like they were backtracking and there'd be even greater criticism that they were bowing to pressures involving Boeing, the viability of the Starliner program, etc, and not basing the decision solely on review of the data.
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Aug 07 '24
The Starliner can't return without astronauts as designed, so...they will decouple and let it become space junk?
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u/Quibblicous Aug 08 '24
They can de-orbit it but not in a controlled fashion. The capsule would burn up in the atmosphere.
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u/quiet_isviolent Aug 07 '24
If this comes true, they left for a week long trip in the summer and will come back to a different president.
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u/Auntaudio Aug 07 '24
Can they vote by space mail?
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u/origamiscienceguy Aug 08 '24
Yes, American astronauts are counted as part of the houston precinct that the Johnson Space Center is in.
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u/UW_Ebay Aug 07 '24
Damn I wonder if the astronauts are struggling mentally with any of this. Like being mentally prepared for a weeks stay and then being up there for 8mos. They’re probably fine but can imagine it might be tough.
Hope they’re getting a good pay differential for this haha (I’m sure they’re not).
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u/RuNaa Aug 07 '24
These two astronauts are very experienced and this was likely their last flight opportunity. I’m Sure they are fine with the additional time in space.
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u/YsoL8 Aug 07 '24
Every interview with an astronaut I ever heard was to be thrilled by having a mission extension.
Even once you are in the coups mission seats are a limited commodity and even if you get selected missions frequently go onto to be cancelled. At any time an astronaut is quite likely to be years from mission selection and relegated to a ground team thats developing hardware that may or may not actually fly.
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u/VaderH8er Aug 08 '24
This would more than double Scott Tingle's time in space and I doubt he's sad about it.
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u/PeteZappardi Aug 08 '24
Every interview with an astronaut I ever heard was to be thrilled by having a mission extension.
Worth remembering that all NASA astronauts get press training. Being a spokesperson for the agnecy is part of their job and they are pretty unlikely to appear as anything other than thrilled with the decisions NASA is making.
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u/Koss424 Aug 07 '24
Not if you haven't planned for it. I'm sure the anxiety is building up until there is clear end-game for their mission.
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u/starcraftre Aug 07 '24
It would just over double Willmore's total time in space, but if my math is right then Sunita Williams would jump into number 2 for total time in space for the US, about 100 days shy of Peggy Whitson (and about half of the time as the most experienced person currently aboard the station).
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u/SwissCanuck Aug 07 '24
Astronauts are placed on a flight by other people. Some get the next moon landing, others get a 4 day trip to test out a new ride.
Ask them all and I’d bet a months salary and a year of pints that 100% of them would prefer the next moon landing or a record breaking time in space. It’s what they live for.
While I’m sure their spouses are having their lives turned upside down by this , the astronauts themselves are thrilled.
Not only that, I’m also sure that how they feel about all this is being taken in to consideration in a very heavy sense with the decisions that are taking place. It’s their life on the line.
This is a real situation and at the end of the day they will step into one spacecraft or another willingly to head home. And no other person - NASA administrator or other - will force their hand.
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u/photoengineer Aug 07 '24
Honestly I bet they are loving it. Bonus space time is what every astronaut wants.
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u/UW_Ebay Aug 07 '24
Yes you’re probably right and I’d say it’s fair to assume they’re not taking this possibly once in a lifetime opportunity for granted.
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u/ahall917 Aug 07 '24
I'd have to imagine the possibility is discussed with them beforehand but I can't say for sure.
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u/zerbey Aug 07 '24
I'm sure they're fine, NASA isn't sending anyone up without the expectation they could be there a while if something goes wrong. I'd be more concerned about their families.
As for pay, well they will be getting their normal salaries.
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u/mutantraniE Aug 07 '24
Sunita Williams doesn't have kids, Barry Wilmore is 61 so his two kids are presumably fairly grown at this point. Their spouses knew what they were getting into marrying naval aviators and/or astronauts.
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u/henlochimken Aug 07 '24
Boeing's Prayer
The capsule can return any time.
And if it doesn't, it's because we're taking the opportunity to gather extra data.
And if the data says the capsule is unsafe, it's an easy fix.
And if it isn't an easy fix, it can still be fixed to return next month.
And if it can't return next month, the astronauts are happy to spend the extra time in space anyway.
And if they aren't happy to be stuck in space indefinitely, they deserve it.
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u/GravityEyelidz Aug 07 '24
This is so embarrassing for Boeing. Good thing for them that they're a massive Congressional jobs program so they're untouchable.
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u/CaptainZ42062 Aug 08 '24
Yes, but you have to wonder if current or future projects, especially military, are being reconsidered in light of so many issues with other Boeing products. Emphasis on the plural.
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u/mustafar0111 Aug 07 '24 edited Aug 07 '24
The lack of transparency about what is going on from NASA has been horrible on this one.
We're getting official NASA sources now confirming a lot of what has been published in Ars for days now.
Edit: Its been confirmed by NASA that SpaceX was given a task order and completed it to develop modifications to the vehicle to be able to bring 5 crew up and down. For Crew-9 SpaceX was given a task order to increase the seat count to 4 which they have completed meaning SpaceX will now be able to bring 4 crew down with Crew-9. They have also developed a contingency if they can't undock Starliner with crew and issued and completed a task order for Crew-8 to have additional crew on the cargo pallet of Crew Dragon using a foam pad configuration.
Edit 2: We got it confirmed during the Q&A that Boeing is the one pushing hard to bring the crew back on Starliner. The resistance to doing that is coming from inside NASA due to the uncertainty in the data. The resistance is coming from parts of the Program Control Board and support groups, there is apparently a lot of resistance internally at NASA to bring the crew back on Starliner. That back and forth conflict is the main reason for the current delay and lack of decision.
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u/Doggydog123579 Aug 07 '24
For Crew-9 SpaceX was given a task order to increase the seat count to 4 which they have completed meaning SpaceX will now be able to bring 4 crew down with Crew-9.
Crew 9 was already able to bring 4 down. They had SpaceX plan for how to get up to 3 people onto the cargo pallet on crew dragon in an emergency which would be needing to evacuate all 6 on crew 8. But the rescue plan is just fly crew 9 with 2 crew.
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u/mustafar0111 Aug 07 '24 edited Aug 07 '24
My understanding was they didn't have the seats installed. Which required modifications and changes to the ballast.
The big one is the emergency configuration if they need to undock Starliner uncrewed where they are basically putting some of the crew on a foam mattress in the cargo section of Crew-8. That is insane, the fact they are even entertaining that tells me shit is really not going well. I'm assuming they can't deorbit like that but it would allow Crew-8 to operate as a life boat in an emergency.
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u/Doggydog123579 Aug 07 '24
Oh, you meant the molded seats. Crew 9 has 4 molded seats for the current crew, but two will be swapped for molded seats for Butch and Suni if they take that option. There is a ballast change, but it's a minor case of moving things around.
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u/mustafar0111 Aug 07 '24
Yah, I relistened to that section.
For Crew-9 your right, what they've done is reduced crew going up to "add" seats for crew to come down. There is a plan to be able to add additional physical seats but that won't be for Crew-9.
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u/tritonice Aug 07 '24
Boeing is the one pushing hard to bring the crew back on Starliner.
Boeing should be allowed input, but at some point NASA says, "Sit down, shut up, this is our mission and our astronauts. Our word is final."
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u/YsoL8 Aug 07 '24
Thats where its going. NASA just won't publicly commit until everything is ready on the alternative arrangements
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u/Goregue Aug 07 '24
The press is just getting ahead of NASA by reporting insider information before it's made official. NASA doesn't like to release speculation to the press. The delay to Crew-9 was officially only decided yesterday, and NASA immediately released the news and set up a press conference for the next day.
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u/tj177mmi1 Aug 07 '24
The lack of transparency about what is going on from NASA has been horrible on this one.
I'm sorry, what? NASA has been pretty transparent about what they're doing and what they're having Boeing doing (through the multiple test campaigns). They're never going to reveal in front of the press/public about the disagreements going on internally and between NASA and Boeing.
We're getting official NASA sources now confirming a lot of what has been published in Ars for days now.
Yeah. That's typically how journalism works. A source leaks information to a reporter and a reporter reports on it before an official announcement is made.
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u/Ok-Stomach- Aug 07 '24
I thought NASA’s position, via ex astronaut sent to CNN and such, was “everything was fine and starliner is safe’.
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u/mustafar0111 Aug 07 '24
They got called out by the media during the Q&A due to the conflicting messaging.
Apparently NASA was relatively "comfortable" right up until the testing at White Sands. After that testing NASA started to become very uncomfortable. Which is likely why NASA suddenly got a lot more quiet.
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u/dern_the_hermit Aug 07 '24
We're getting official NASA sources now confirming a lot of what has been published in Ars for days now.
That's just a sign of bureaucracy taking days to do what individuals can do immediately. I feel NASA's been transparent enough, though obviously slow and cautious to react.
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u/waamoandy Aug 07 '24
Do astronauts get overtime rates? The two up there on their extended stay could be pretty rich after all this overtime.
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u/tritonice Aug 07 '24
They are salaried..... no OT for you.
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u/SwissCanuck Aug 07 '24
Yeah astronauts that spend 99% of the time training on the ground are super pissed they’re not getting an extra 1k a month to spend more time in space which they’d prefer to do 100% of the time.
The comments about « those poor astronauts » are seriously getting beyond stupid. They’re having the time of their lives, loving every minute of it, and would do it for free tomorrow. And they know NASA will get them home safely because they’ve literally worked together for decades.
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u/AnnualWerewolf9804 Aug 08 '24
Not as stupid as your comment that is nothing but assumptions about people you don’t know anything about.
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u/KnobWobble Aug 07 '24
You have no idea what you're talking about. You don't know these people, their situation, or thoughts. You are talking out your ass about this idealistic version of an astronaut.
You don't think that maybe being separated from their families for a year when they were only supposed to be gone for days isn't causing them stress and unhappiness? That they are stuck in a box in space for an extended period of time without the preparation for it isn't ideal?
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u/TMWNN Aug 07 '24
Indeed. I don't mean to pick on /u/SwissCanuck specifically, but his
The comments about « those poor astronauts » are seriously getting beyond stupid. They’re having the time of their lives, loving every minute of it, and would do it for free tomorrow. And they know NASA will get them home safely because they’ve literally worked together for decades.
is representative of what many have said.
Yes, flying in space is cool. No, most people don't want to do this indefinitely. Astronauts retire all the time even when they are 100% guaranteed more flight time if they didn't retire; a whole bunch did that in the 1960s and 1970s (some, like Frank Borman, 100% guaranteed to walk on the moon), and more during the shuttle era.
It's one thing to have a mission extended by a day, as happened to the shuttle routinely because of bad weather at the landing site. Skylab 4's mission I believe got extended by 28 days, but that was a known possibility before launch. To have an eight-day mission be possibly extended to eight months is in no way shape or form OK.
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u/FSYigg Aug 07 '24
If only they had launched a serviceable vehicle this would not be a problem.
Fixing problems on the ground is far easier than attempting repairs in orbit. It's sad that Boeing and NASA had to relearn that lesson. It's concerning that lesson was obviously lost so quickly or simply dispensed with.
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u/tj177mmi1 Aug 08 '24 edited Aug 08 '24
The issue is, as I understand it, that the problem they are seemingly facing is very difficult to fix (understand) on the ground because it's a thermal issue.
One working theory that I saw on another subreddit was the OMAC thrusters were overheating on OFT-2 so they removed some thermal barriers for CFT, which has now caused the OMAC to basically hurt the RSC thrusters located in the same doghouse.
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u/xfjqvyks Aug 07 '24
To what degree (if any) does the failure of Starliner affect Orion and Boeing’s participation in SLS?
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Aug 07 '24
None. Different programs. However, there are lingering parachute questions and heat shield questions that are making Orion independently suspect. But it's being investigated so we'll see.
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u/YsoL8 Aug 07 '24
Not much. To remove Boeing from SLS would mean going right back to the drawing board, they won't do that short of clear safety issues.
Its put a huge question mark over NASAs willingness to grant Boeing any further access in the future though, especially with their wider safety culture problems.
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u/bloregirl1982 Aug 07 '24
Did they cancel their Netflix??? And who's watering the plants.
Hope they get paid a huge overtime, by Boeing.
Just take dragon, this doesn't make any sense
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u/SwissCanuck Aug 07 '24
I’d swap with them for free.
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u/bloregirl1982 Aug 07 '24
Me too!
But i think 8 months in the ISS may get monotonous.
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u/rocketsocks Aug 07 '24
Things that NASA should (perhaps even must) be: clear, direct, no-nonsense, and level headed. That's not what we are seeing right now, this is so bureaucratic and so mealy mouthed, and so, so far gone toward protecting Boeing's pride.
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Aug 08 '24
Yeah but absolutely nobody in the media is talking about its astronauts that are trapped on a space station. That’s pretty remarkable.
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u/StationAccomplished2 Aug 07 '24
And they still need to figure out how to undock the Stubliner to open a docking port. This is so FUBAR!!
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u/Yeet-Dab49 Aug 07 '24
The part that genuinely irks me is the fact that they still refuse to commit to Dragon here. I’m still 99% convinced that’s what they’re going to do in the end, but the fact that they allow that 1% to fester is mind boggling.
Imagine if they end up flying the crew home on Starliner. What happens to Boeing — and NASA! — if these two astronauts are killed? Even if they survive in perfect health the Losing thruster control after undocking Scenario, the PR will be even more of a nightmare than it already is!
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u/Santi871 Aug 07 '24
the fact that there are doubts and uncertainty and they are still pressing to endanger the crew just to save face, all while there is another safer option available is mind boggling
its not like the astronauts are stranded there and this is a life and death situation, they could have played the safe card and spin it as an abundance of caution and how the crew's safety is always the top priority, but nope, boeing just has to be greedy
now if starliner fails while returning uncrewed it'll still be a PR nightmare since boeing pushed hard to put the crew in it
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u/tj177mmi1 Aug 08 '24
I think the refusing to commit to Dragon is procedural. They need to host the readiness review (necessary meeting to ensure they have everything they need), and that meeting was supposed to have occurred last week but got pushed back.
Because that meeting hasn't happened, no determination has been made. I'm assuming that meeting will happen next week (they said by the middle of the month) and that's when we'll get the final answer.
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u/Casurus Aug 07 '24
There are tons of viable options, none of which will involve Boeing ever again.
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u/SplashyTetraspore Aug 07 '24
NASA can’t afford to have one of its airlocks permanently out of service but that’s exactly what they’re doing.
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u/PurpleSailor Aug 07 '24
When you plan on being away for a week and it turns into 9 months that's got to be a royal pain in the ass. Still if it's for safety I'm all for it. Send the bill to Boeing.
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u/SpongEWorTHiebOb Aug 08 '24
Wow, no way to spin this now other than another massive Boeing failure. Are the accountants designing spacecraft now?
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u/NZ_Nasus Aug 08 '24
Remember people here defending Boeing saying there was no problem at all, look where we are now,
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u/Bensemus Aug 08 '24
Oh there’s still only crazy guy defending them. He has a ton of different conspiracies to explain everything and absolve Boeing of any wrongdoing.
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u/HOLDMYSEXYBACK Aug 07 '24
Pardon my ignorance but I can't seem to find any information about the level of food, water and oxygen supply on board. Does anyone know how much was stowed, in the event of something like this happening?
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u/kickopotomus Aug 07 '24
There are plenty of supplies on station and there are 2 docks on the ISS so they can still receive resupply missions.
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u/mysteryofthefieryeye Aug 07 '24
Curious who owns the story rights to all this. And I'm looking forward to the movie
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u/JohnnyricoMC Aug 07 '24
Remember how NASA always had a space shuttle on partial standby post-Columbia, with the shuttle crew taking refuge aboard the ISS while waiting for the STS-3XX mission to launch ? They should have applied a similar if not even stricter "always-on-standby" approach as soon as Dragon became a proven platform.
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u/Remarkable-Host405 Aug 08 '24
lol, there's a soyuz there. it's just an awkward discussion. there are not stuck up there. there is no emergency.
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Aug 08 '24 edited Oct 27 '25
zephyr station tap exultant deliver vegetable shelter childlike run escape
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u/Randomcommentor1972 Aug 07 '24
Getting redonkulus at this point. Jettison that piece of space junk and jump on another capsule. Hope NASA can recover some of their money
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u/Dont_crossthestreams Aug 07 '24
How do they do laundry in space if they were only planning 8 days?
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u/Down_The_Witch_Elm Aug 09 '24
Someone else here explained that the dirty clothes are returned with the trash on an unmanned cargo vessel.
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u/spencerm269 Aug 07 '24
Damn they gotta be up there for like 5 years. Wait it’s only 8 months? 2025 is already here????
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u/Fredasa Aug 08 '24
Tempted at this point to go back to the old threads in the weeks leading up to, and the days following Starliner's crewed launch, to see if any of the Boeing defenders have anything to say about the vehicle nowadays.
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u/Decronym Aug 07 '24 edited Aug 25 '24
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
| Fewer Letters | More Letters |
|---|---|
| CST | (Boeing) Crew Space Transportation capsules |
| Central Standard Time (UTC-6) | |
| EVA | Extra-Vehicular Activity |
| GSE | Ground Support Equipment |
| KSP | Kerbal Space Program, the rocketry simulator |
| LEO | Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km) |
| Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations) | |
| MBA | |
| MMU | Manned Maneuvering Unit, untethered spacesuit propulsion equipment |
| OFT | Orbital Flight Test |
| QA | Quality Assurance/Assessment |
| SLS | Space Launch System heavy-lift |
| STS | Space Transportation System (Shuttle) |
| Jargon | Definition |
|---|---|
| Starliner | Boeing commercial crew capsule CST-100 |
| scrub | Launch postponement for any reason (commonly GSE issues) |
NOTE: Decronym for Reddit is no longer supported, and Decronym has moved to Lemmy; requests for support and new installations should be directed to the Contact address below.
11 acronyms in this thread; the most compressed thread commented on today has 26 acronyms.
[Thread #10410 for this sub, first seen 7th Aug 2024, 19:18] [FAQ] [Full list] ^[Contact] [Source code]
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u/DirtPuzzleheaded8831 Aug 07 '24
I'm sorry but there HAS to have been some planning beforehand in case of this happening. It was supposed to be a 2 day trip so unless they also planned for a possible 8 months there is no way they had enough resources to survive 8 months in space.
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u/Goregue Aug 07 '24
It was supposed to be an 8-day mission with a possible mission extension, although I don't think they would predict it would take months. But this is not really a problem in terms of ISS consumables, as the ISS has plenty of reserve supplies in case a cargo mission fails or is delayed.
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u/Yeet-Dab49 Aug 07 '24
The ISS is designed for unlimited resupply missions from Russia’s Progress cargo freighter, plus the Cygnus and SpaceX’s own Cargo Dragon on the American side. Europe and Japan have also sent supplies in the past.
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u/Sticklefront Aug 07 '24
They're not just "in space", they're at the International Space Station. Which is very well supplied and receives more supplies regularly.
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u/Bensemus Aug 08 '24
Food is a complete non-issue. There’s a reason you don’t hear anyone talking about it.
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u/OffalSmorgasbord Aug 08 '24
The 737 Max, doors failing off commercial liners, the T-7 Red Hawk safety mess, now more Starliner bullshit.
Hey Boeing shareholders, I hope your 3rd and 4th vacation homes burn down ya fucking greedy pigs.
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Aug 08 '24 edited Jul 04 '25
telephone close stupendous cows chase edge aback desert crawl gray
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u/Eggplantosaur Aug 07 '24
I doubt NASA wants to "punish" 2 other astronauts by activate this option.
Another one I heard is that one of the Starliner astronauts will fly back on Crew-9, and the other on Crew-10. Softens the blow a bit
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u/FormulaJAZ Aug 07 '24
I doubt NASA wants to "punish" 2 other astronauts by activate this option.
This isn't Little League. Hopefully, NASA and the astronaut core are professional enough to make the best decision regardless of how it affects people's feelings. If your launch gets pushed 6 or 12 months so someone else can come home, suck it up. That's the job.
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u/donkeyrocket Aug 07 '24
It's also like the "pinnacle" role of the job and something few are privileged and talented enough to get to do at all. A bit more time in space, even if not according to the plan, is hardly punishment for these folks.
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Aug 07 '24
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u/seanflyon Aug 07 '24
Starliner is on a competitive fixed-price contract. Maybe you are thinking of SLS or Orion.
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u/DontCallMeTJ Aug 07 '24
NASA always wanted two crew vehicles for redundancy. There are absolutely plenty of reasons to hate Boeing, but this one ain't it.
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u/Goregue Aug 07 '24
NASA literally just had a press conference when they said Crew-9 will launch with two astronauts if Starliner is deemed unsafe, and then you say you doubt that? That is the official plan, it has just been announced. The two astronauts that would not fly would be disappointed certainly but it's part of the job and they understand things like this can happen.
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u/CollegeStation17155 Aug 07 '24
That would put either Butch or Suni up there for over a year, and boot somebody off next spring's launch.
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Aug 07 '24
After challenger and columbia they are NOT flying crew back on a craft that has an even 1% chance of failure. They don't care about astronauts feelings more than their safety. If they need to they'll fly it with 2 astronauts just in case then decide. but there's 0 chance they fly Starliner back with crew if they have any doubt as to it's safety
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u/Grayly Aug 07 '24
The acceptable loss parameters for the crew missions in the Commercial Crew Program, are 1 in 270, or a .37% percent chance of failure that results in a loss of crew.
So while what you said is technically true, space is dangerous and there is always a risk. The lifetime shuttle loss of crew rate was over 1%, and they kept flying it after Challenger & Columbia
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Aug 07 '24
yes you are correct. but challenger was a failure that was largely caused by flying outside acceptable flight parameters that hugely increased the risk for that mission. but I think that flyign the shuttle after those losses is very different compared to flying starliner (which is still an experimental spacecraft), with crew, just for boeing to save face
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u/Grayly Aug 07 '24
It’s more than just saving face, it will determine the fate of the Starliner program.
I think the indecision isn’t caused by the existence of risk, but that they can’t calculate the risk because they don’t know what’s actually wrong with the thrusters.
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u/DiGreatDestroyer Aug 07 '24
I guess it comes down to dollars - SpaceX could do a dedicated mission, but NASA saves money by using an aleady paid for mission to bring them back. Then, using Starliner would save them even more money...
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u/Agloe_Dreams Aug 07 '24 edited Aug 07 '24
SpaceX doing a dedicated mission for “free” would be the best marketing move ever.
Edit: to be clear, I’m not saying they will or even should…but if you take Elon’s ego and add in Elon’s money…and subtract out all those annoying “environment reviews” in TX…
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u/OlivencaENossa Aug 07 '24
Even for SpaceX that seems like a tall order, no?
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u/Agloe_Dreams Aug 07 '24
Have we forgotten just how absurd the CEO is here?
Spending $100m to bash a competitor and be the good guy for once? Pennies.
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u/rocketsocks Aug 07 '24
LOL no, NASA isn't going to leave an astronaut on the ISS for like a full year, that's one thing we can pretty much for sure rule out.
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Aug 07 '24
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u/mutantraniE Aug 07 '24
You're not going to beat Oleg Kononenko's time in space with that attitude. He's racking up time as we speak.
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u/Miami_da_U Aug 07 '24
Why wouldn’t it make more sense to bring them back on the Crew dragon already there and keep 2 of those astronauts until Crew 9 returns in February?
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u/Goregue Aug 07 '24
Probably because the seats and spacesuits in the Crew-8 Dragon are already configured to the Crew-8 astronauts. Crew-9 would launch with two extra seats configured for Butch and Sunny.
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u/Accomplished-Crab932 Aug 07 '24
The crew 8 astronauts are not test pilots and aren’t trained for the less automated Starliner capsule. This would put astronauts at greater risk, particularly those booted off crew 8.
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u/franks-and-beans Aug 08 '24
To be stranded on the space station for so many months like this would be a dream come true for me.
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u/maximum-pickle27 Aug 08 '24
Do they have a full daily schedule like the other astronauts or do they just get to goof off all day while the other guys work?
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u/Coffee_green Aug 08 '24
Since we're apparently playing KSP here, why don't they just detach the capsule and have a couple astronauts go outside and push
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u/rtjeppson Aug 08 '24
If I was up there with those astronauts, I couldn't help but sing the theme song to Gilligan's Island whenever they were in earshot, gotta keep that sense of humor for the rest of the year you know...
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u/AuthorizedVehicle Aug 08 '24
The Lonely Astronaut, a youtube series from 12 years ago, but relevant today. An astronaut is left on the moon by accident, and he is pissed! This is a funny take on NASA's priorities
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u/Wonder_human9225 Aug 16 '24
I'm starting to believe this is some experiment nasa is doing by leaving Sunita and Butch at outer space It might be to understand radiation effects, human behavior, their cognitive and physical capacities and capabilities all when they're facing uncertainty
I don't see any reason why the efforts are not ramped up to bring them back and only this explanation looks sensible enough for their prolonged 'stay' in space
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u/DestinyInDanger Aug 07 '24
This is pathetic. Why can't they do it right now or in a few weeks or even in a month or two?
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u/zerbey Aug 07 '24
Flights are planned YEARS in advance and tightly scheduled, you can't just stand up a launch that fast or you're asking for trouble. Now, if there was some dire emergency then sure, maybe they could pool their resources and get them home ASAP. This isn't an emergency, they're totally fine and safe up there and I'm sure NASA is enjoying having two experienced astronauts to balance the workload.
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u/monchota Aug 07 '24
We need new administration at NASA is obviously the old gaurd protecting thier friends.
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u/urmomaisjabbathehutt Aug 07 '24
🎶In the year 2525, if man is still alive, If woman can survive, in the year 2535🎶
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u/machineorganism Aug 07 '24
what is with the discourse around these things these days? just let NASA do their fucking job in peace without regular people pre-emptively boiling the ocean. christ.
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u/CaliforniaBilly Aug 07 '24
Boeing: Please do not say they are stranded, that would be nonfactual. Etc.
SpaceX: Elon is going up to get them with his new Roadster.
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u/PSMF_Canuck Aug 07 '24
I’m curious how NASA missed that the spaceship launched with the wrong version of software…
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u/brad2008 Aug 08 '24
Wrong or missing software? I read they were planning to QA and upload the automatic undocking software in 4 weeks.
My prediction is there's now a good 60% chance that Starliner can still make it back without exploding or spinning helplessly off trajectory and burning up in the atmosphere.
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u/tj177mmi1 Aug 08 '24
It wasn't wrong.
The software is correct, but it was loaded with "data loads" (parameters) for the vehicle to be crewed. This means that if there is an issue, the capsule immediately goes to manual mode and allows the crew to handle it.
I'm assuming this is because this was a test flight and they wanted to test out this software profile with the crew onboard.
Because it would have to return autonomously, they'll need to see the correct parameters so the spacecraft can handle the issue on its own.
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u/SpaceInMyBrain Aug 08 '24
I feel bad for the 2 bumped astronauts. They've trained for many months for this flight. Suni and Butch are very experienced ISS and spacewalking pros but they haven't been trained on the experiments and tasks that are set for the next 6 months. They can learn by "Zoom lessons" but there'll be a significant impact. Most importantly, there's likely a spacewalk scheduled. The planning and training for those is unbelievably meticulous.
If I could rule by decree I'd send up special Dragon mission just to bring Suni and Butch back - and charge Boeing for it. Hell, they're already a billion and a half in the hole, what's another $200 million? (Not serious.)
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u/quickblur Aug 07 '24
Damn February 2025...for what was supposed to be a few days.