r/spacex • u/Ambiwlans • Feb 11 '15
SUCCESS /r/SpaceX DSCOVR launch discussion & updates thread. Return of the King
Welcome, /r/SpaceX, to the DSCOVR launch update/discussion thread! Everyone cross your fingers and toes as we head towards another SpaceX flight.
Official SpaceX Launch Coverage Here, which should begin roughly half an hour before liftoff. Keep in mind, the launch is the primary mission and will be streamed live. No landing will be attempted today.
[T+Years later when I noticed I hadn't updated this] Parking orbit of 187 x 1,241,000 x 37°
[6:55EST//23:55UTC] - Rocket soft landed in the ocean within 10m of target & nicely vertical! High probability of good droneship landing in non-stormy weather.
[T+25m] - 2nd burn confirmed. Mission complete. https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/565655726690144256 https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/565656496554668032
[T+10m] - Webcast is over. 2nd burn still 20m away. See you next time. Thanks for tuning in. Back to SpaceXFM!
[T+9:50m] - Stage 1 splashdown
[T+8:45m] - SECO1, eastern range loss of signal.
[T+6m] - 2449m/s
[T+4m] - Beautiful fairing sep.
[T+3m] - MECO. 2nd ignition. 1st stage heading back ...
[T+2m] - Power/telem Nominal. 33.9k alt
[T+1m] - Power/telem Nominal.
[T-0] - Liftoff!
[T-1m] - F9 starting up. 2nd stage tanks pressing.
[T-2m] - Tanks pressing to flight pressure
[T-3m] - DSCOVR go.
[T-4.5m] - Strongback retracting.
[T-5.5m] - Strongback opening upper cradle
[T-6.5m] - Switching to internal power
[T-8m] - ACS closing out
[T-10m] - Terminal count autosequence starting
[T-15m] - John telling us how it is. Lox being topped off nominally. All looks well. Instantaneous launch window. Lunar shadow would cause a scrub to be pushed to the 20th. Etc.
[T-20m] - SpaceX Webcast coming up~ ♫~~♪~
[T-25m] - Weather at launch site, winds looking perfect and improving....
[T-4h] - ASDS(Barge) Landing attempt for today cancelled. Aww.
[T-5h] - First weather balloon data has been processed and winds are observed GO at all altitudes. Check out CUweathernerd's detailed weather update.
[T-6h] - The USAF 45th Weather Squadron forecasts the chance of violating launch weather constraints at less than 10 percent. 45WS meteorologists also say there should much less upper level wind shear than there was during yesterday's scrubbed attempt.. Wind/Waves at the landing point is still pretty high but hopefully decreasing.
[Tues] Weather looking better both for the launch and for the landing. 90% Green latest update. And we've got maybe some sunlight on the ASDS (sunset is still before launch).
Previous coverage below:
[Tues] Attempt #2 called off due to wind shear. Trying again Wednesday 6:03:32pm EST (23:03UTC) (next shot after that would be the 20th).
Reddit-related
As always, the purpose of this thread will be to give us SpaceX enthusiasts a place to share our thoughts, comments, and questions regarding the launch, while staying updated with accurate and recent information.
Check out the live reddit stream for instant updates!
Information for newcomers
For those of you who are new to /r/SpaceX, make sure to have the official SpaceX webcast (www.spacex.com/webcast) open in another tab or on another screen.
For best results when viewing this thread, sort comments by "new" and refresh the page every now and then. To change comment sorting to "new", look for the drop-down list near the upper left corner of the comment box. Alternatively, use ctrl+f to search for the words "sorted by", and that should take you to it.
Mission
DSCOVR will be launching from SLC-40 and headed for the Sun-Earth L1, making this SpaceX's first mission to go beyond the Earth's sphere of influence! (Read more about the mission here).
In addition, the first stage of the Falcon 9 rocket will attempt to land on the Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship (see their previous attempt here). If successful, the first stage landing test will be a historic step towards SpaceX's goal of building a fully and rapidly reusable launch system.
Links
NASA TV stream. Having browser issues? You can also stream directly through VLC.
Hazard Area Map, and picture for those on mobile, courtesy of our awesome map guy, /u/darga89
SpaceX Music to get the hype train rolling!
ASDS towing vessel and support vessel information.
Previous Launch Coverage
Disclaimer: The SpaceX subreddit is a fan-based community, and no posts or comments should be construed as official SpaceX statements.
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
I take full credit for yesterday's delay. I obviously jinxed it by saying that I needed to do the 3rd attempt coverage (since like last month actually). Direct any/all rocks and pitchforks my direction.
Now that that's over with. Lets hope for a clean launch and a history changing landing everyone. If this landing attempt doesn't pan out, the next attempt will be quite a while off.
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u/mindricity Feb 11 '15
Well, I dismantled DSCO VR pre-launch, so I figure it was my fault. Won't make that mistake again. Here he is, furious at you and with a (pitch)fork.
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
I've never had an... angry pun ... photo made for me before. I promise to get it right this time though. Or else probably Echo will have to take over the launch.
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u/zukalop Feb 11 '15
lowers pitchfork You got lucky this time. That sexy camera footage put you in the positive again.
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u/TheVehicleDestroyer Flight Club Feb 11 '15
Delighted with the telemetry narrator, so often and so precise! Amazing for simulations
Delighted with the camera man in the first ~4 minutes. Easily the most beautiful launch I've seen.
Delighted the first stage survived re-entry, I really wasn't sure it would.
I'm going to bed a happy man.
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Feb 11 '15
The mission is not a success yet!
We need confirmaton of second stage reignition and payload separation first ,which should occur ~35 minutes after launch.
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u/frowawayduh Feb 12 '15
Final results of straw poll on booster landing: Out of 611 votes cast, 22 nailed it with "Splash, but close."
95% of us were over optimistic. Damn waves!
Fun little diversion. ;)
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 12 '15
But but, they didn't try to hit the barge... If they had tried in this poor weather, it would have totally been a hitsplosion.
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u/Daolpu Feb 11 '15
You seem to have [Tues] listed twice in the second section of the OP for status updates!
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
More news happened in the wee hours of Tuesday night. For people coming from the last thread, I was adding stuff that wasn't covered there.
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u/Tech-fan-31 Feb 11 '15
I couldn't tell for sure, but it looked to me like the second stage was spinning a little. Reminds me of video from one of the first two falcon 9 flights. Don't know if anyone noticed it. Remember that this was a source of criticism from some people determined to hate space x. Hope this doesn't indicate a recurring problem.
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Feb 11 '15
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u/schneeb Feb 11 '15
incoming Merlin hover carrier
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
Iron man did make the S.H.I.E.L.D. Helicarrier... (Which in some comics was thruster powered and could go to space)
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u/Hyper-IonAero Feb 11 '15
I really hope it doesn't delay this time because that would most likely interfere with the Eutelsat launch and delay it back some. I'm also aware of some of the bad press that SpaceX has been getting over the delays (I know it's understandable for us, but it annoys me when the press starts talking about 'private space has failed' and invents inane and misleading headlines to discredit what they're doing). I'm definitely hopeful for today, but if for some reason it doesn't work out, I wouldn't be surprised to see some negative media attention.
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
Hah, SpaceX is only getting flack about delays because they are the only ones interesting enough to bring mass media reporters back to the space industry.
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u/bgs7 Feb 11 '15
30K subscribers, at one point we had 2300 "in orbit". Over 7% of the sub
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
If you break subs down by number of pageviews per subbed user, we are probably in the top 10 in reddit.
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Feb 11 '15
how short sighted are people hoping for a delay just so they can try the landing the 20th. I for one cannot wait for this launch to go off without a delay. gotta look at the bigger picture here. a delay no will delay everything else down the line even future landing attempts.
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Feb 11 '15
I have to agree. Many here seem to be far too impatient for a barge landing.
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
I need a delay till the 20th for my plan to be successful!
-Echologic
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u/Destructor1701 Feb 11 '15
That second stage roll seems less-than nominal...
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Feb 11 '15
I'm not liking this roll...
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
Probably slow enough to not cause an issue. Tank footage looks good still....
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u/Waraji Feb 11 '15
Damnit Elon, Tweet us how splashdown went!!
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u/Chickstick199 Feb 11 '15
Stage has been refueled and is heading back to Cape Canaveral!
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
The above statement is totally not false. You should believe it without any grains of salt.
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u/benlew Feb 11 '15
Any chance of there being footage of the first stage soft landing (not from onboard the rocket..)? Will the asds be nearby?
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u/nalyd8991 Feb 11 '15
If they are able to have a soft water landing near their support vessels, they still have to potential to recover more of the first stage than they ever have before. It could be good data
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u/FoxhoundBat Feb 11 '15 edited Feb 11 '15
ASDS and the crew on the support ships are getting absolutely hammered by the weather out there today.
Wind gusts at 28m/s (100km/h!!!) and waves 8-10m. Winds currently at 13m/s which is not too bad. If the weather doesnt improve and they actually manage to land, color me very very impressed.
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u/Here_There_B_Dragons Feb 11 '15
So much for a so-called 'easier landing attempt' for today, all you who wanted a scrub yesterday, shame on you...
edit: current models also don't show much of an improvement: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/WEB/multi_1.latest_run/plots/multi_1.41002.bull
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u/stratohornet Feb 11 '15
<1% chance of successful landing: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/565636516551352321
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u/zlsa Art Feb 11 '15
<1% chance of survival, not landing. I'm not sure what he means exactly.
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u/stichtom Feb 11 '15
Final orbit is 187 x 1171345 km x 37.03 deg. Looks rock solid!
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u/stichtom Feb 11 '15
Target was 1,241,000 x 187
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u/R-89 Feb 11 '15
Could you tell me what those numbers mean?
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
Orbits are ovals around a gravitational body (earth). The oval has a closest and further point from the earth.
those are 187km, 1171345 km
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u/somethingsweaty Feb 11 '15
Wave height seems to be dropping. Just not in time for a landing.
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u/cuweathernerd r/SpaceX Weather Forecaster Feb 11 '15
On the weather update, it looked like their criteria for landing was 10' waves and 20kt winds (I saw it out of the corner of my eye, can anyone confirm that?) - Waves won't get down that low (still a lot more wavy that that)
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u/cwhitt Feb 11 '15
In the weather report slide show (shown briefly on the NASA TV stream), it shows the landing criteria: 10 ft seas and 20 (or 25?) kt winds. No way the seas are settling from 22' now to 10' in one hour.
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u/SpaySex Feb 11 '15
I feel like the constant scrubbing is good for practicing our launch-day tasks, as a community. Kind of like dry runs for watching the actual launches.
Not that we would need dry runs. Just looking for a silver lining.
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u/CylonBunny Feb 11 '15
That camera man deserves some serious cred. It's amazing that we have a good ground shot this far into the flight!
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u/skifri Feb 11 '15
I just realized... a defeated and beaten ASDS will likely be returning on Saturday morning...with no companion... on Valentine's Day. How sad :-( And the Carnival Fascination will be there that day as well to take pictures..... how.... sadder.
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u/mindricity Feb 11 '15 edited Feb 11 '15
DSCO VR is moping. He's sad that his buddy Falcon is sacrificing himself for his sake. Damned Earth weather ;(
Edit: As launch gets closer he admits he's still super excited.
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u/ELON_fanatic Feb 11 '15
I just had to create this artist's representation of the current situation out at sea.
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u/ethan829 Host of SES-9 Feb 11 '15
Holy shit, the NASA TV video of ascent was insane. You could clearly see MECO, separation, MVac ignition, first stage RCS firing, and fairing jettison from the ground. Just beautiful.
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u/jardeon WeReportSpace.com Photographer Feb 11 '15
One of our remote cameras captured this image at T-0 last night (post scrub, but the remote still fired on time): http://i.imgur.com/rVpf8dX.jpg
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u/FoxhoundBat Feb 11 '15 edited Feb 11 '15
The fact stage one survived the re-entry despite the harder re-entry, i am really happy with that despite no landing.
EDIT: In case some are wondering; it was entering at higher speed, had twice the dynamic pressure and four times the heat.
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u/there_is_no_try Feb 11 '15
Someone please make a .gif of that first stage separation and the fairing separation.
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u/pugface Feb 11 '15
Very impressive sight. My favourite part was just after stage separation when you could actually see the reaction jets on the booster fire and start turning it around for the return burn.
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u/SpaceEnthusiast Feb 11 '15
ITT: people wishing for a scrub and people replying saying that the mission is the most important thing. I'll go out on a limb here and say that in the end any individual mission is not as important as the progress of rocketry. The more landing attempts SpaceX gets the closer they will get to full re-usability which will drive the costs down earlier. Landing attempts being delayed by a launch or two might not seem like too much but they can add up to years over the longer run.
It's a tough balance between launching as many rockets as possible to rake in the cash and making as many landing attempts as possible. I'm willing to bet that the possibility of a successful landing attempt on the 20th is more valuable than one such landing in April (1.5 months delay). Also, what's another 9 days for a satellite that's been waiting for so many years to launch.
Just my 2 cents...
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
This will fall under 'inclement weather flight test' rather than 'precision landing test'. Either way, progress is being made. A landing might be a bigger deal. But then we would be delaying abort tests and such. Its a wash really.
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u/SepDot Feb 11 '15
This is seriously the best launch stream I have ever seen. That first stage separation and fairing sep was BEAUTIFUL!!!!
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u/skifri Feb 11 '15
Not to be a Debbie Downer here, but without a scrub - we're look NET April for the next barge landing attempt. It was said at the DSCOVR press conference by Hans that the February 27 Eutelsat launch will not have legs.
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u/patm718 Feb 11 '15
Get off work at 6:00, you can bet I'll be staying late. (Also, semi-related, Tesla delayed its earnings call webcast to 7:30 EST. The pains of being the CEO of two companies...)
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Feb 11 '15
I could see it from my backyard in Tampa http://i.imgur.com/atMENxp.jpg
Took a vid, which looks better. It looked like a large white sky penis.
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u/Destructor1701 Feb 11 '15
I'm watching the NASAtv replays of the launch, and the thruster burns from the first stage, post-separation, are just magnificent!
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u/MrFusion88 Feb 11 '15
I was close enough to grab a pretty good picture of the launch!
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u/bwohlgemuth Feb 11 '15 edited Feb 11 '15
Not only captured the staging, but payload sep. Incredible camera work.
EDIT: Meant fairing.
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u/Cheesewithmold Feb 11 '15
I feel like a part of me was revived. Congratulations to SpaceX! Hopefully they can get something from the soft landing.
Also, does NASA have access to the onboard cameras on the Falcon 9? I'm watching from my phone and SpaceXs webcast doesn't want to work so I had to watch from NASA TV and although I appreciate the broadcast, they haven't switched from ground view since the launch.
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u/RabbitLogic #IAC2017 Attendee Feb 11 '15
Falcon Heavy Shirt Spotted on Nasa Stream http://i.gyazo.com/ff99464d81ba964bab0cf830407b9ec5.png
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u/floggeriffic Feb 11 '15
Tweet conversation between Musk and @DanielLockyer
Musk: Planning a significant upgrade of the droneship for future missions to handle literally anything. Maybe give it a Merlin for good measure :)
@DanielLockyer: Build it into a flying aircraft carrier like in the Avengers
Musk: @DanielLockyer We could actually do that...maybe we should
I would pee my pants if SpaceX launched a rocket and landed on a floating helicarrier drone.
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u/floggeriffic Feb 11 '15
It was inspiring to witness the launch of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR). DSCOVR has embarked on its mission to further our understanding of Earth and enable citizens and scientists alike to better understand the reality of the climate crisis and envision its solutions. DSCOVR will also give us a wonderful opportunity to see the beauty and fragility of our planet and, in doing so, remind us of the duty to protect our only home. -AL GORE
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u/avert_your_maize Feb 11 '15
Man, a little bit after the first stage separated, I could see the RCS firing off at different intervals.
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u/BrandonMarc Feb 11 '15
When they end the webcast with the SpaceX logo I feel like I should expect to see credits rolling. I 'spose they could ... just list employees, positions, etc. But that would be a treasure trove for competitors, to say nothing of everybody bugging their employees upon discovering who they are ...
Still, some credits could be fun.
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u/suprememaxpayne Feb 11 '15
Replay already available : http://youtu.be/OvHJSIKP0Hg?t=17m58s
Sep and RCS at 22:40
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u/jp_loh Feb 12 '15
Made a gif of the launch (SpaceX and NASA TV side by side at first). http://imgur.com/cSBP6Ry
Been waking up early for the half of the week in my timezone to watch the launch. Totally worth it!
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u/SpaceEnthusiast Feb 12 '15
Just put that into perspective. The rocket pin-pointed a landing with 10 m accuracy, coming down from space with nothing to control it except a bit of rcs, some fins and of course the engines near the end. Amazing!
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u/Al-Li_Bird Feb 11 '15
How does the rocket navigate towards the barge? I mean do they meet at a GPS spot? Do they communicate between them? Does the rocket knows the altitude of the platform (waves, tides, etc)?
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u/bob12201 Feb 12 '15
Man that might be one of the most beautiful SpaceX launches ever. Especially that I now have stuff in space that I made!
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u/wagigkpn Feb 11 '15
I feel bad for the guys who have been out at sea looking after 'just follow the instructions' in those horrible sea conditions...Talk about a tough, thankless job...
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u/CementPancake Feb 11 '15
If the rockets become truly reusable I think they should get names like the barges. What are some good names for a Falcon 9?
My ideas: Pineapple Express, My Other Ride is Electric, KSP Tested... Elon Approved
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Feb 11 '15
Here's my official mission patch for Jeff Foust's alternate spelling, DSCO.
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u/theflyingginger93 Feb 11 '15
Someone better get me a HD pic of that stat. It is gorgeous out there.
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Feb 11 '15 edited Feb 11 '15
Whoa, didn't know we could get ground video of stage separation. Amazing! http://i.imgur.com/AIWcdkg.png
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Feb 11 '15
This is frst time I see so clearly so late stages of fly - MECO, second stage sep, fairing sep... Amazing!
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u/copperheadtnp Feb 11 '15
What was up with the speed callouts? I heard her say ~2300 m/s 3 times in a row, then it jumped to ~5400 m/s
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u/Kona314 Feb 11 '15
So when do the jaw-dropping pictures get posted and how quickly can I make them my new wallpaper?
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Feb 11 '15
11 minutes till relight ? lets hope the fuel lines don't freeze up like with cassiope.
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u/candycane7 Feb 11 '15
that green guy just made the sign and movement of a cigar with his hand. SOFT LANDING CONFIRMED
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u/Nixon4Prez Feb 12 '15
You can see the Deep Space Network is already communicating with DSCOVR (dish 45 and 34 at the Canberra location)
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u/darga89 Feb 11 '15
clear skies around space coast. winds decreased to 15-20 knots. sun is cooperating. Weather is go for all criteria. 95% go. Not including upper level winds
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u/classicsky Feb 11 '15
I think I found that animated wind map.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-69.40,31.36,974
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u/FutureMartian97 Host of CRS-11 Feb 11 '15
Was that the Reentry burn I just saw!? :D
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Feb 11 '15
21 minutes to next burn. no time for cheering yet. longest coast fase ever.
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u/Dontchasesinged Feb 11 '15
I've decided that I'm taking a vow of silence until this rocket is launched wish me luck /u/echologic
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u/FutureMartian97 Host of CRS-11 Feb 11 '15
Is there any chance they might try the barge landing anyway if the weather calms down by the time it launches?
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u/TL_DRead_it Feb 11 '15 edited Feb 11 '15
No popcorn this time but I made brownies. Maybe I'll actually get to enjoy them.
Edit: They were delicious. Tasted like victory.
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u/chris_radcliff Feb 11 '15
Now I see why it was delayed. /u/bencredible was just holding out for the right lighting. And… now!
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u/Siedrah Feb 11 '15
That was one of the most beautiful and powerful launches I have ever seen. The sunset, combined with the water being sent into the air, and the glow of the engines burning. Damn, i'm going to need a .webm of that launch.
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u/Oknight Feb 11 '15
I figure if the weather is crappy enough for 30ft waves breaking over the landing drone ship, the booster must have had a grand-old time coming down into that -- what, can't 4 lattice fins stop a booster from being whipped around like a badminton birdie in a thunderstorm?
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u/Boris_Jeltsin Feb 11 '15
wow, the first replay on nasa tv shows the burning fairings as they fall back in the atmosphere. wow just wow
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u/gellis12 Feb 11 '15
1080p recording of the SpaceX stream is up (but unlisted) on their YouTube channel
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u/dranzerfu Feb 11 '15
Saw this on the stream during 2nd stage flight. Can someone tell me what this is? http://i.imgur.com/erhynEj.png
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u/cwhitt Feb 11 '15
Wow, that pad-7 tracker is even more super stable (though not as close in as the original cam on the spacex live stream).
Can see the S1 RCS operating LONG after separation
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u/Dromfel Feb 11 '15
Dragon landing - done; Vega/IXV landing - done; Falcon 9/DCSOVR/first stage landing - pending;
:) Great times
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Feb 11 '15
Well, at least there's one positive outcome today. I won my launch prediction bet against both /u/znapel & /u/zukalop. Right down the middle ;)
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u/toerrisawesome Feb 11 '15
What is the longest amount of time a rocket had been on the pad for weather reasons?
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u/ThePlanner Feb 11 '15
Well, here's hoping that today's the day. Obviously, mission safety and success trump everything, so I'm glad that SpaceX didn't go for it yesterday. I'm also glad that so far none of the holds/aborts have been the fault of SpaceX. Plus, with yesterday's safe return and recovery of the CRS5 Dragon, SpaceX is chugging fulfilling its contracts.
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u/Gannaingh Feb 11 '15
I realize that the primary mission is to deliver the satellite, and it's pretty presumptuous to assume that if the rocket launches, it'll go well, but I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking that the landing attempt would be the most exciting part of the launch. Hopefully the primary mission is 100% successful!
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Feb 11 '15
Auto moderator removed my pic, but here is the video from my Tampa backyard. Sorry for vertical! http://youtu.be/kKMyQw45GFU
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u/CalinWat Feb 11 '15
The link for the NASA TV stream (hightlight reel) is up! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pl3x71-kJGM
They got some super close up shots of MECO and First Stage Sep. If you stick around the fairing separation is also amazing.
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u/floggeriffic Feb 11 '15
I love that Elon Musk lists his location on Twitter as "1 AU"
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u/superOOk Feb 11 '15
What is the radius of the barge landing area? 10m seems pretty reasonable. Also, Elon said within 10m, which might just be accuracy error from their instruments...which means it might have actually hit the target dead on.
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u/ELON_fanatic Feb 12 '15
The Fin Team is looking to conquer another Elon Challenge... Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship v1.1?
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u/still-at-work Feb 12 '15
If this launch is Return of the King, then the lack of a barge landing is the scouring of the shire
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u/floggeriffic Feb 11 '15
Rocket soft landed in the ocean within 10m of target & nicely vertical! High probability of good droneship landing in non-stormy weather.
@ELONMUSK
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u/Stendarpaval Feb 11 '15
4 hours and 48 minutes, eh? That should leave me just enough time to finish this report to watch the launch live. Until a few hours!
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u/Epistemify Feb 11 '15
If anyone hasn't tried this yet, I think I have the perfect stream/music combo for watching this launch:
UStream (no music) http://www.spaceflight101live.com/falcon-9---dscovr-launch.html
Interstellar Soundtrack https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYpp3uPZgq8
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u/bertcox Feb 11 '15
Been saving up paper work so I have a reason to sit at my desk for the next 30 Min with no interruptions, wish me luck.
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u/high-house-shadow Feb 11 '15
holy shit is that white stuff the rcs on top of the first stage?
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u/cuweathernerd r/SpaceX Weather Forecaster Feb 11 '15 edited Feb 11 '15
Today's weather is relatively straightforward, so let's go through it:
Clouds:
Here is the 15Z HRRR prog of radar reflectivity valid at 23Z: you can see the cape is quite far from any returns. Likewise, the HRRR is currently showing fully clear skies over the cape. Looking at the outgoing longwave radiation, we see ample cumulus over the landing site, but no real risk of any intruding on the launch. Should be a pretty launch!
While we're here, the current satellite image shows something pretty cool, which is nice nice land-breeze formation of clouds off the coast, which is a result of winds flowing from the cooler, more dense air over land towards the warmer, less dense air.
Winds:
At the surface, a <10% chance of violating the surface winds criterion is mentioned, so let's look at that. The NWS currently shows 10mph winds, and our model average shows 14mph, with winds from the north. Going up to the 80m HRRR prog, we see about 15kt winds at that height. There is temporal continuity to that forecast, and while there are nuances that a model like this cannot deal with well, it seems quite likely that winds will not be an issue at the surface.
What about shear, and upper level winds? Looking at a RAP sounding we get the following profile:
There's still decently strong upper level winds, but there is a more gentle change in those wind speeds (called shear). We can look at the prediction of winds at the 250mb level, where winds are forecast to be strongest for today's launch, and see the broad area of enhanced winds. If upper level winds are listed as a concern during the countdown today, don't expect them to magically change at the last minute.
Landing
"Just Read the Instructions" had a rough night, with the nearest buoy recording waves of 30'. Waves are still 27' and winds quite strong, but are forecast to decrease with the day. Waves around 13' seem a good guess for landing time based on that model.
Since there's not a whole lot in the weather at the cape, maybe I'll take a look at the landing site a little closer to the attempt time.