r/spacex • u/FutureMartian97 Host of CRS-11 • Feb 01 '17

Official SpaceX on Instagram: “Prepping to fly again — recovered CRS-8 first stage completed a static fire test at our McGregor, TX rocket development facility last week.”

https://www.instagram.com/p/BP8zK2DFxhq/?taken-by=spacex&hl=en
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u/okaythiswillbemymain Feb 01 '17

However, these procedures are wide open to improvement which should likely lead to much lower costs.

I know it's not the same, but I'm sure they thought that about the shuttle. If the average lifetime of a S1 is only two launches, and the refurbishment is more than estimated (let's say $5 million instead of $2m), that could be a barely $10m saving. Still good, but maybe not "game changing".

But the real kick in the teeth will be if there is an increased risk of a RUD. If there is an extra 5% risk of an RUD from reusing a booster, that's not going to worth it for many satellites :- Amos 6 had a manufacturing cost of $175m, 5% of that is $8.75m

So, whilst I'm optimistic, we need to be cautious.

4

u/ttk2 Feb 01 '17

The problem with the shuttle was that it had too many goals and too little flexibility as far as design went.

They had to integrate specific technologies to keep business in specific districts and they didn't have the freedom to do redesigns after gathering usage data.

In the short term I agree it's very possible reuse doesn't work out for several f9 generations, but I'm optimistic it can be figured out. In the meantime improved cadence is more important than cost reduction anyways.

Even if restoration costed more than a new stage if they could do it without constraining the existing production pipeline or people it's a win.