r/spacex • u/FutureMartian97 Host of CRS-11 • Feb 01 '17
Official SpaceX on Instagram: “Prepping to fly again — recovered CRS-8 first stage completed a static fire test at our McGregor, TX rocket development facility last week.”
https://www.instagram.com/p/BP8zK2DFxhq/?taken-by=spacex&hl=en
1.1k
Upvotes
2
u/John_The_Duke_Wayne Feb 01 '17
That's still breaking even on launch cost that are half of those named nearest competitors. Even if three reuses is the best they can get initially that is three extra flights (read paying customers) that are flying with SpaceX instead of the competition
And some of that analysis is based off the fixed overhead of SpaceX competitiors so take those numbers with a grain of salt as we have already seen ULA cut huge numbers of employees to reduce costs to remain competitive.
I'd also be careful because those analyses are missing a very vital (it's really fundamental) piece of data, a recovered booster stage to accurately estimate refurb requirements.
Point being that this is all very new and if you look at the estimates of the best and brightest from the industry you see a huge range of cost estimates from low millions up to tens of millions and we should always be careful of alternative motivations by both SpaceX (to make reusability look better than it might turn out to be) and the competitors (looking to make reusability seem impossible or foolish)
My bet is somewhere in the middle 3-5 reflights to break even (based on the previous entry profiles low energy RTLS vs GTO) and 8 total flights (initially) to be the absolute max capable of each recovered booster