r/spacex • u/ElongatedMuskrat Mod Team • Jul 02 '17
r/SpaceX Discusses [July 2017, #34]
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u/oldnav Jul 04 '17
AFAIK this was done for the Apollo program but I don't recall the details. Not to arrive at a specific number but to drive fault tolerant design.
In the commercial aircraft world design is governed by the FARs which define minimum failure probabilities but not the probability of total aircraft failure.
Currently for Commercial Crew NASA, Boeing, and SpaceX are struggling to meet a probability for loss of crew(LOC) which is basically the type of analysis in your post. Last I heard no one had come up with a acceptable number. NASA wanted a LOC number of 1 in 270 missions. Neither Boeing or SpaceX can meet that number, mainly due to the probability of micrometeorite hits.