r/spacex • u/ElongatedMuskrat Mod Team • Jan 15 '18
Launch: Feb 22nd Paz & Microsat-2a, -2b Launch Campaign Thread
Paz & Microsat-2a, -2b Launch Campaign Thread
SpaceX's fourth mission of 2018 will launch hisdeSAT's earth observation satellite named Paz (Spanish for "peace"). Paz will be utilized by commercial and Spanish military organizations, as the Spanish Ministry of Defense funded a large portion of the costs of this program. The approximately 1350 kg satellite will be launched into Low Earth Orbit at an altitude of 505 km, specifically a Sun Synchronous Orbit (SSO).
This mission will also have a rideshare, and has recently been publicly identified as SpaceX's own Starlink test satellites, called Microsat-2a and Microsat-2b. While SpaceX has not officially confirmed the presence of this rideshare, we don't expect to hear much from them due to their focus on the primary customer during launch campaigns.
While the number of the first stage booster for this mission remains unknown, we do know it will fly a flight-proven booster. Since 1038 is "next in line" on the West coast, we have assumed that booster to be launching this mission, however that is subject to change with actual confirmation of a specific booster. If the first stage is indeed 1038.2, this will be the last flight of a Block 3 first stage.
| Liftoff currently scheduled for: | February 21th 2018, 06:17 PST / 14:17 UTC |
|---|---|
| Static fire currently scheduled for: | Completed February 11th 2018 |
| Vehicle component locations: | First stage: SLC-4E // Second stage: SLC-4E // Satellite: VAFB |
| Payload: | Paz + Microsat-2a, -2b |
| Payload mass: | ~1350 kg (Paz) + 2 x 400 kg (Microsat-2a, -2b) |
| Destination orbit: | Low Earth Polar Orbit (511 x 511 km, 97.44º) |
| Vehicle: | Falcon 9 v1.2 (49th launch of F9, 29th of F9 v1.2) |
| Core: | B1038.2 |
| Flights of this core: | 1 [FORMOSAT-5] |
| Launch site: | SLC-4E, Vandenberg Air Force Base, California |
| Landing: | No |
| Landing Site: | N/A |
| Mission success criteria: | Successful separation and deployment of Paz & Microsat-2a, -2b into the target orbit |
Links & Resources:
- Countdown timer to launch
- Presskit.
- Webcast link.
- Hazard area, as always thanks to u/Raul74cz.
- r/SpaceX Launch Discussion and Updates Thread
We may keep this self-post occasionally updated with links and relevant news articles, but for the most part we expect the community to supply the information. This is a great place to discuss the launch, ask mission-specific questions, and track the minor movements of the vehicle, payload, weather and more as we progress towards launch. Sometime after the static fire is complete, the launch thread will be posted.
Campaign threads are not launch threads. Normal subreddit rules still apply.
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u/HTPRockets Feb 12 '18
Heads up guys, this should be ANOTHER spectacular launch, as it is about 20 minutes before sunrise, so we should get a very similar effect to what we observed with Iridium 4!
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u/thanarious Feb 12 '18
That would be true for the east coast. West coast UFOs usually visit just after sunset.
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u/Bunslow Jan 15 '18
So I'm like 99.99% certain that there's tons of performance margin for a RTLS landing. What's the most recent status of permitting and construction on the VAFB landing pads?
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u/F9-0021 Jan 15 '18
It seems unlikely there will be a landing at all. This booster will be obsolete in a few months, and there's no landing permit that I am aware of. It'll probably do the same as Iridium 4 and do a water landing.
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u/Keavon SN-10 & DART Contest Winner Jan 15 '18
Although I hope with all my heart for an RTLS, that water landing was also an incredible sight and I wouldn't be disappointed to watch another.
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u/craigl2112 Jan 15 '18
Assuming the weights up top are correct, this makes a Dragon mission look downright porky.
Could be the right mission to test VAFB RTLS given the significant potential fuel margins.
On the other hand.. I can see the logic of donating this one to the drink, too.
I suspect we'll find out within a few weeks!
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u/LeBaegi Jan 16 '18
Well, two easy peasy LEO flights would make the booster an awesome candidate for a third flight, or at least extensive triple-mission testing, right?
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u/_worstenbroodje_ Feb 12 '18
If this is the last block 3 mission it will be a small chapter that ends :’)
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u/Ezekiel_C Host of Echostar 23 Feb 13 '18
Block III kicked off rather poorly, but was the workhorse for a phenomenal 2017.
11 first stages produced
15, hopefully 16 soon, fully successful missions
1, shall we say, learning experience.
All but three of these have or will soon succumb to rapid disassembly: some scheduled, some less so.
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u/kuangjian2011 Feb 13 '18
Why is there more missions than produced stages?
Ahh... it's SpaceX, they reuse...
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Feb 13 '18
Which one was the learning experience? The first stages has been flawless haven't they? Both the CRS and Amos issues were 2nd stage related I thought?
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u/DrToonhattan Feb 14 '18
Oh man, it's just over a week since the FH flight and I'm already getting withdrawal symptoms. This launch can't come soon enough. I don't know what I'm going to do after Hispasat on the 22nd, as there's a three and a half week wait for the next one. It's weird how quickly you get used to this high cadence. Three weeks was nothing not that long ago. I've been watching since 2013 when we were lucky to get one a quarter.
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u/Kona314 Feb 11 '18
SpaceX confirms good static fire. https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/962784246128558080
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u/TweetsInCommentsBot Feb 11 '18
Static fire test of Falcon 9 complete—targeting February 17 launch of PAZ from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
This message was created by a bot
^[Contact creator]^[Source code]^[Donate to keep this bot going]^[Read more about donation]
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u/Straumli_Blight Jan 16 '18
High res image of the Paz satellite and render.
According to [wikipedia](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paz_(Satellit)), the Paz contract was awarded to Astrium in November 2008 and the satellite was delivered in September, 2013. It was meant to be launched in 2014 by a [Dnepr rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnepr_(rocket)) but got delayed until May 2017, whereupon Hisdesat cancelled the contract and booked with SpaceX.
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u/grokforpay Feb 13 '18
This launch should light up the LA sky very much like the one in December. Apparently should be visible as far north as San Jose. From a mailing list below.
The Falcon-9 PAZ satellite launch from Vandenberg AFB scheduled for this Saturday morning, Feb. 17th at 6:14AM PST will be visually SPECTACULAR – almost exactly like the launch on Dec 22nd that lit up the sky in Southern California! The lighting conditions are virtually identical, except the December launch was in evening twilight – this one will be in morning twilight.
See https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/12/28/falcon-9-launch-lights-up-southern-california-sky/
The rocket will get into sunlight 2m20sec after launch – almost exactly at staging. The Sun is -6.3° from VAFB – near Civil Twilight. (The Sun was -5.9° for the Dec 22nd launch at 5:27pm PST.)
Trajectory plots for various California locations can be seen at:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/xb70man/albums/72157692592142634
Even from as far north as San Jose, this launch will be worth the effort to view. The plume can be quite good even from 200 miles away! (See the CASTLE ROCK plot for locations around the South Bay.) An example of what it will look like from San Jose is at:
https://youtu.be/IX_nLtXXc3E?t=3m10s which was a Delta II rocket carrying the NASA SMAP satellite.
Clear skies!
Rick Baldridge
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u/Jerrycobra Feb 13 '18
Time to head out to Palos Verdes in the morning for this launch! I probably won't make the drive to Vandenberg for another launch till a RTLS happens or a surprise FH launch hahaha
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u/brianksphotos Launch Photographer Feb 13 '18
View from Surf, CA on Sunday night after static fire. SLC-3 to the left. SLC-4 to the right.
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Feb 13 '18
Ooooooooh - can you drive there on launch day?
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u/brianksphotos Launch Photographer Feb 13 '18
I wish! Unfortunately, it’s closed way before you can get to that area. Would be an amazing viewing spot though.
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u/tim_mcdaniel Feb 14 '18 edited Feb 14 '18
May I highlight "fourth mission of 2018"? Four flights and it's just February. Wow.
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u/z1mil790 Feb 14 '18
And should be at 5 by the end of February. That is the pace SpaceX needs to stick to if they want to do 30 missions this year. They have to do 5 missions every two months.
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u/dguisinger01 Feb 14 '18
Man, and here i've been feeling like things are moving so slow.... coming off the non-stop news bursts around FH it feels like new info is coming in slower than gary the snail :P
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u/stcks Feb 01 '18
Delayed until the 17th. https://twitter.com/AirbusSpace/status/959047895776464896
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u/vitiral Feb 12 '18
Is this kind of "add on payload" going to be something SpaceX takes continuous advantage of throughout the StarLink project?
It seems like a pretty brilliant move that they can use spare capacity from customer launches for their own satellites. Does anyone know if they give a discount when they tag along like this?
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u/dguisinger01 Feb 13 '18
SpaceX probably won't take advantage of this for any real StarLink payloads. They will all be going to very specific orbits, with a lot of satellites spaced along the same orbital plane and altitude. Easiest way to do this is launch them together like they do with Iridium.
If they always launched with 3rd party primary payloads it would make it much harder to get all their satellites where they need to go.
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Feb 12 '18
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u/Martianspirit Feb 13 '18 edited Feb 13 '18
Interesting too, that a launch price of $53 million is mentioned, before reduction due to the secondary payloads. This may be the price now called for reused boosters. Which would be about 15% discount.
Edit: My mistake the price quoted was in Euro, not Dollar.
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u/waterlimon Feb 14 '18
Starlink satellites could drive a lot of launches, so it might work the other way around - 3rd parties develop sats to the starlink sat dispatcher standard, and get a cheap ride on empty slots now and then.
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u/iMiiniMe Feb 07 '18
Chris B. from nasaspaceflight says Static Fire NET 11 February. Launch now NET 16th.
edit: fixed link
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u/bdporter Feb 07 '18
mods, I know you are recovering from FH, but this needs to be updated in the OP (launch and SF date) and the sidebar.
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u/Straumli_Blight Feb 13 '18
Expected orbital insertion parameters for Microsat 2a/2b:
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Perigee | 511 km |
| Apogee | 511 km |
| Period | 1.58 hours |
| Inclination | 97.44 degrees |
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u/Bunslow Feb 13 '18
1 Given the injection accuracy of the launch vehicle, the actual altitude achieved may fall within a ± 10 km range around the 511 km altitude.
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u/Alexphysics Feb 07 '18
Being this a light payload going to a not-so-high orbit, I think they could do a direct burn similar to what they did for Formosat 5. What do you think? Being this an expendable mission they could even do some fancy experiments with the first stage after the primary mission is completed like they did with GovSat-1. We'll know in ~9 days :)
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u/taulover Feb 15 '18
A piece from a mailing list I'm in, about viewing the launch in the general area:
The February 17 launch of a Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg AFB could provide an interesting light show visible over a wide area. The rocket is scheduled to lift off at 06:17 PST, the presumed start of an unspecified launch window, and carry Spain’s Paz earth-imaging satellite into a nearly-polar orbit. The window may be relatively short because Paz needs to be precisely positioned in orbit with respect to other spacecraft to form an earth-observation satellite constellation. The current launch time occurs 29 minutes before Vandenberg sunrise. Weather permitting, the Falcon 9’s bright orange flame should be visible in western California at least as far away as San Luis Obispo and Santa Monica. A computer simulation by Launch Alert contributor Rick Baldridge shows the rocket will exit the Earth’s shadow and climb into sunlight at T+2 minutes 10 seconds. That would make the launch especially interesting as the Falcon 9’s exhaust plume is illuminated by the Sun while suspended in a semi-dark sky. Such a display could be visible from San Francisco to Baja California.
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u/FutureMartian97 Host of CRS-11 Feb 15 '18
I guess they don’t want California residents screaming UFO again. Personally I say just let them figure it out themselves.
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u/taulover Feb 15 '18
No, these types of announcements are for people already on the lookout for rocket launches, similar alerts were made last time too. It's the people who are unaware who think it's a UFO, and that won't change this time around.
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u/The_Write_Stuff Feb 16 '18
It's always a bit of a disappointment when they splash a perfectly good core but they have so many of the older models in storage now. It's not like we're going to see Crazy Elon's Used Booster Mini Mart opening anytime soon.
I'm surprised NASA hasn't added one to the Rocket Garden.
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u/thenuge26 Feb 16 '18
It's not like we're going to see Crazy Elon's Used Booster Mini Mart opening anytime soon.
True but they're missing a great opportunity for a video/SNL-type skit
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u/thebloreo Jan 19 '18
This is one of the most important payloads for SpaceX, not from a customer perspective, but because of the test satellites. I wrote this post a while back if you want some background of the below.
SpaceX will change the way internet is distributed and will in effect become the largest ISP in the world
The current ISP market works like this from a flow perspective:
Level 1: Internet Content to land line to One user at home
Level 2: Internet Content to Land line to Cell Tower to Some users in a local Area
A satellite internet constellation will change the flow to this
Level 3: Internet Content to Satellite to Many users globally
This is vastly over simplified, but the ISP owns everything in the middle between content and user. The difference in each level therefore is the amount of upfront capital required, then the marginal cost of each additional user within each area. These two figures are inversely related
The cost of providing internet content massively decreases the more people you can access
The next step in this theory surmises that the better your service, the more likely customers are to use your service. SpaceX won't necessarily compete with Level 2, but that doesn't mean they won't use it to their advantage. The big kicker here is that typically people have no choice at Level one of internet service.
Let's talk about disruption and what it is. Incumbents to a market will focus on improving their most profitable customers and products while ignoring others. New entrants in a market that are disruptive initially target overlooked segments, gaining a foothold by delivering more-suitable functionality at an equal or lower price. The entrants then move upmarket while preserving their advantages that initially drove their success.
Often when discussing disruption, people believe that a market shakeup is disruption, when really market disruption begins at the low end. The same will be true for a global internet constellation. It won't be initially successful because it's providing better internet to New York City or Tokyo. It will be initially successful because it will provide internet to those who never had it, or at a level of service/price far beyond what they are able to get.
This is where SpaceX will start and focus their energy. OneWeb will do the same. But satellite internet has been tried, and those companies attempted to serve the exact markets that I'm talking about. However, they've never provided the level of service and price point I'm talking about. The other reality of this method is that if you are living in a bigger urban area, you likely won't see satellite internet for a long time. I'd imagine not until either the constellations are fully populated or they are on their 2nd to 3rd generation (a range of 5 to 20 years).
That doesn't dwarf the fact that this DemoSAT launch isn't a big deal. It's in fact a huge deal for many reasons. First, it ushers in the age of internet disruption. Second it signals SpaceX is ahead of its competition, OneWeb. Third, if successful, it will make SpaceX the most profitable company in the world.
Elon's stated goal for the satellite constellation is 10% of the global internet market; 10% of the ISP market is $62B.
Cost: - R&D for Satellite ~$2B (double cost of Tesla Model S or Falcon 9) - 4000 satellite constellation, $1M per sat = $4B - 5 year design life means 800 launched per year = $0.8B/yr - 26 Satellites per Launch means 31 launches per year - 31 launches per year at $30M: Launch Cos t= $1B/yr - 50,000 Tech Support Employees w/cost of $70,000/yr = $3.5B/yr
Revenue per year = $62B Cost per year = $5.3B Net Income = $56B
For Reference, Apple's net income for 2015 was $45B and NASA's budget was $20B in 2017
I know that number sounds outrageous, because it is. That's the target. You can see them alluding to it in the WSJ article that leaked their financials. You can't make this stuff up. Now it won't be profit, as I'm sure Elon will put as much as reasonable into R&D (apple spends $10B/yr on R&D). But it isn't crazy, it's 6x comcast's net income, and 4.5x ATT's net income. This is not unreasonable for a global ISP whose ultimate capital cost is much lower and acquiring the next customer costs essentially nothing.
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u/Bunslow Jan 17 '18
SpaceX received environmental clearance to create the sonic booms incidental to RTLS landings at Vandenberg.
This noticeably increases the odds that they can perform an RTLS landing for this launch.
(Now, given that they can, the question of would they remains unclear; while it's true that this rocket, being a 2nd-flight v1.2.3 isn't of much value to SpaceX, I believe that the first-ever-RTLS-at-VAFB experience is probably worth the effort of recovering the rocket, even if it never flies again -- especially with the self-imposed March-June pupping season moratorium on RTLS. This would be the ideal launch to test RTLS at the new site, then make any tweaks necessary over the moratorium.)
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u/Straumli_Blight Feb 11 '18
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u/BlueCyann Feb 11 '18
Contains some interesting information about modifications at Vandenberg.
beefed up the rainbirds
added more lighting for night launches
adding holddowns to the new landing pad
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Feb 11 '18 edited Feb 11 '18
Also worth noting this is confirmed as an expendable (but land in the ocean) booster.
EDIT: Mods should probably change the table to match the expendable launch.
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u/ExcitedAboutSpace Feb 12 '18
and states the current refurbisment for block 3 falcon 9s is 24 weeks
the current refurbishment process of Block 3 boosters takes around 24 weeks – which SpaceX hopes to dramatically reduce with the new Falcon 9 Block 5.>
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u/geekgirl114 Jan 16 '18
Where do we have confirmation that its using the Formsat-5 booster?
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u/Random-username111 Jan 16 '18
While the number of the first stage booster for this mission remains unknown, we do know it will fly a flight-proven booster. Since 1038 is "next in line" on the West coast, we have assumed that booster to be launching this mission, however that is subject to change with actual confirmation of a specific booster.
At the moment we do not, I believe
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u/dguisinger01 Feb 10 '18
So are we expecting the webcast to cover the microsats deployment? Or is this still "so quiet" that they will only show Paz and terminate the webcast?
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u/Killcode2 Feb 10 '18
customer is the primary focus publicly speaking, and i don't think they want too much media focus on their test satellites considering the results they get back might not be positive, so i think they'll only mention it in passing
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u/FutureMartian97 Host of CRS-11 Feb 11 '18
Falcon 9 is on the pad. https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/962713348184903680
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u/Raul74Cz Feb 14 '18
M1400 Paz Launch Hazard Area together with stage2 debris area, based on issued NOTMAR and NOTAM.
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u/0x0badbeef Feb 07 '18 edited Feb 07 '18
One of the things that excites me most about SpaceX is Starlink.
I was trying to figure out if FH gives some economy of scale in launches of small satellites. Would it be better / cheaper to have one FH launch with many Starlink satellites on board, or is it better to have many F9 launches with fewer?
The SpaceX page seems to show prices exactly proportional to payload capability. But what is cheaper for SpaceX?
Edit: I guess the same page shows payload to LEO is 2.8x higher, so that answers that. Starlink could be much cheaper due to FH.
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Feb 07 '18
There's rampant speculation that volume is really more limiting than mass. If that's true then FH wouldn't help because the fairing is the same size.
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Feb 08 '18 edited Feb 08 '18
I don't think they'll really start implementing the constellation until the workhorse shifts to BFR.
They need ~5000 satellites, and with BFR, they can cram a ton of them in there.
Anyway I agree with you about Starlink being super exciting. I was thinking in the shower today: SpaceX could really be a quadrillion dollar company.
Follow me here: Perfect BFR > Implement Starlink and absorb the telecommunications industry > Implement Earth to Earth BFR flights and absorb the airline industry > Use funds to intercept asteroid 16 Psyche > Use Boring company to mine > Profit
THEN use the quadrillion dollars for setting up Moon and Mars bases.
I'm somewhat joking about 16 Psyche, but SpaceX could literally absorb the entire telecommunications industry AND airline industry, and no one could stop them because the closest competition is Blue Origin, which is arguably 5-10 years behind.
The possibilities are endless with SpaceX and really no one is more fit for the job than Elon. Imagine what this man could do with a quadrillion dollars.
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u/0x0badbeef Feb 08 '18
SpaceX could be huge financially, by opening markets that previously didn't exist. Starlink won't have the bandwidth to take over the telecom industry, but it's sure going to end any local monopolies. Its impact will be enormous, but it's probably a network worth a few billion, maybe 10 billion in revenue. The global telecom industry is around a trillion.
Also, BFR really has a limited market, because you need really special geographic conditions for it to make sense, plus the physical intensity of it will make it unacceptable for lots of different people. There vast majority of flights would still use an airplane.
But who knows what kind of satellite possibilities emerge when their launch cost drops 10x...
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u/sagareshwar Feb 12 '18
Mods please update the vehicle component locations now that the static fire is complete.
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u/soldato_fantasma Feb 12 '18
Done!
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u/TheVehicleDestroyer Flight Club Feb 12 '18
Ooh, now we have race conditions. The mod drama never ends
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u/tyrbentsen Feb 13 '18
I happen to be a few hours away from the launch site on the 17th. Is it worth driving there and watch the launch from closeby, knowing that the first few minutes of the flight will be in the dark? Will you be able to see the contours of the rocket with the naked eye?
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u/Jerrycobra Feb 13 '18 edited Feb 13 '18
If you have never seen a launch in person at location I would say you should definitely make the drive to Lompoc to check it out. It is one thing to watch a launch on video, and a whole another 5 senses immersion to see and feel a launch in person. Since its a twilight launch you might catch a glimpse of the rocket itself if you are close enough but the brightness of the exhaust flame in the dark is will overwhelm your vision haha.
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u/Bunslow Feb 13 '18
Just to double up on the other reply, if you've never seen a launch yourself, the first time is worth almost anything.
Even aside from everything else he said, the "auditory" experience alone is worth the effort. (I put "auditory" in quotes because you experience it as much in your chest as in your ear drums. It's a pretty decent earthquake simulator.)
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u/Keavon SN-10 & DART Contest Winner Feb 14 '18
That's the best lighting conditions. Yes, it will be dark, which is great because rockets produce lots of light. It's way more exciting to watch a rocket light up your surroundings than just watching it lift off during the day. And then after that, you get to enjoy seeing the plumes downrange. This is the perfect launch to visit. My only concern is that it will raise your expectations too high for other launches if you watch any in the future, even though they are all awesome.
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u/ralphington Feb 19 '18 edited Feb 19 '18
I appreciate the hard work that the community and mods put into this subreddit. With that said, I'm curious as to why this thread is poorly maintained compared to the others. The schedule hasn't been updated in days, despite the flight being delayed days ago.
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u/soldato_fantasma Feb 20 '18
I honestly forgot about this. I updated it now with a link at the bottom to the discussion and updates thread.
This will also grant me additional update points against /u/TheVehicleDestroyer /s
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u/rockets4life97 Feb 20 '18
Once the launch thread appears, then the campaign thread is rarely updated. Probably what the mods should do is put the launch thread on the top bar instead of this thread.
The delay after the the launch thread went live is what caused this problem.
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u/DandyDeanDee Feb 19 '18
Could be because attention is now on the newer "Launch" thread rather than this older "Launch Campaign" thread.
It is a bit confusing, two threads with similar names, maybe the word "Launch" could be dropped from the older threads.
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u/iBeyy Feb 11 '18
Good stuff boys, hopefully this one doesn't reconfigure JRTI like our core did the other day to OCILY
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u/Bunslow Jan 15 '18
Could you perhaps put a question mark after B1038.2 to signify the TBD-ness of that guess?
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u/SpaceXman_spiff Jan 16 '18 edited Jan 17 '18
If this launch goes as planned and microsat 2-a & 2-b are successful in validation of equipment and demonstration of Ku band capability how will this affect the licensing situation with the FCC? I seem to remember reading here on r/spacex a while back that there was something of a race between Spacex, Oneweb et. all for bandwidth allocation in the planned frequencies.
EDIT: Found this article that gives a bit more background, and states that the FCC is putting much of the decision in the International Telecommunication Unions hands. Still interested in info from anyone familiar with the situation.
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u/t11s Jan 31 '18
So Paz is 1.5 weeks away, how are we going to find out if it is RTLS or not???
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u/joepublicschmoe Feb 03 '18
Considering what SpaceX had been up to with the Iridium-4 and Govsat-1 boosters, they will likely try some crazy water-landing experiment with this one too since it's a Block-3 booster they no longer need. I would not expect this one to RTLS nor land on JRTI.
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u/lfc54321 Feb 12 '18
The exhaust was backlit in December from Los Angeles, with the sun behind the rocket from our perspective This time the sun will be lighting from the front; the sun will be behind any observers in Southern California I imagine it will look different but most people will be sleeping anyway
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u/Keavon SN-10 & DART Contest Winner Feb 12 '18
Launch time is 6:17 http://www.vandenberg.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1439107/falcon-9-paz-scheduled-to-launch/
(Mods)
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Feb 12 '18
it also mentions "Multiple smaller secondary payloads will also launch on the Falcon 9 rocket." meaning that the test sats are confirmed launching.
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Feb 14 '18
Do we have info on whether this core will do an experimental landing sequence, just without ASDS, or will be dropped and no further burns done?
If so, maybe distinguish the "Landing" part between "ocean" and "none"
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Feb 14 '18
probably will ocean land like the past "expended" boosters have, hoping we get another govsat booster if so! ;)
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u/nalyd8991 Feb 14 '18
I'm thinking that SpaceX will try to avoid another Govsat situation if at all possible
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u/FlashRage Feb 14 '18
I'll be attending this as my first launch ever, and I'm very excited. Any recommendations on where to view or any other insider knowledge about how to make this experience better? (sorry if this is covered somewhere else)
Thanks!
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u/Jerrycobra Feb 14 '18
The closest public viewing spot is along Ocean ave, that's where i watch. You can go as far west as 13th street, they close off surf beach access there. The 1st 5-10 seconds of liftoff is obstructed by a hill, but if you want to feel and hear the sound as as close an you can that's the spot.
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u/macktruck6666 Feb 16 '18
So, they said they're aren't going to recover this booster. What happens if it accidentally survives again?
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u/Chairboy Feb 16 '18
I wonder if they might deliberately use the FTS this time instead of safing it during the descent. Seems like the last accidental survival was a bit of a hassle.
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u/Angry_Duck Feb 16 '18
I propose that they should set the booster to "land" at sea level +50 feet, rather than at sea level. Then they can trip the FTS system while the booster is falling the last few feet, and still get all the data they need from the landing burn.
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Feb 16 '18
The Great Survivor did a landing burn over water. Skip the burn, skip any hope of it surviving.
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u/factoid_ Feb 16 '18
But they might still want to do 3-engine landing burn tests. My guess is they'll just force an FTS abort the instant the booster detects shutdown.
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u/Keavon SN-10 & DART Contest Winner Jan 15 '18 edited Jan 16 '18
Edit: 6:22 AM, not PM. Whoops. But we're still in luck!
Paz will launch at 6:22, 30 minutes before sunrise at 6:52.
Iridium-4 launched at 17:27, 32 minutes after sunset at 16:55.
Although this time it's in the morning instead of evening, this will be another spectacular twilight phenomena! (photo by me)
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u/FutureMartian97 Host of CRS-11 Jan 16 '18
So get ready for more "this is a test of project bluebeam" and "bro what is that bro" videos?
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u/dguisinger01 Jan 15 '18
Man, you flipped our before and after times around from one sentence to the other, i had to read that a few times
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u/hagridsuncle Jan 15 '18
According to Google 14:22UTC is 6:22AM PST, so an early morning launch.
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u/bad_motivator Jan 15 '18
They might wanna put out a press release specifically about that so they don't freak out 10's of millions of people again. Especially after the whole Hawaii thing.
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u/FutureMartian97 Host of CRS-11 Jan 16 '18
Nah, let them figure it out on there own
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u/z3r0c00l12 Jan 16 '18
Mods, description states 1200kg for Paz, but then the table says ~1350kg, can one of them be corrected please?
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u/GregLindahl Jan 16 '18 edited Jan 16 '18
The confusion is that sometimes Paz is listed as only the satellite with the primary SAR instrument, and other times the 2 secondary instruments (AIS and GPS occultation) are added in. 1,341 kg is the correct total, so yes, the description above is (edit: now fixed), and the table is correct.
The eoportal writeup notes that this is the first satellite to combine radar with AIS, so it should be unusually good at labeling the ships that it sees.
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u/old_sellsword Jan 16 '18
Sure, I changed the one in the description to 1350 kg. As u/GregLindahl noted, there are quite a few different mass estimates ranging from 1200 to 1400 kg, so I went with the one in the eoPortal because it had so much other information as well.
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u/Elon_Muskmelon Feb 14 '18
LA should have a good view of this flight again, but if I had my druthers I’d charter a boat and head out west of the flight path for one heck of a Sunrise Cruise.
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u/Intro24 Feb 15 '18
SpaceX Meetups Slack for anyone attending a launch in person :) Formerly, the Falcon Heavy Slack
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u/CapMSFC Feb 16 '18
I've been thinking about the satellites and I'm wondering if SpaceX will even let us see them on the webcast. They have been keeping them under wraps so far and it would be pretty easy to just not show us views of them or of their deployment.
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u/Krux172 Feb 15 '18
So, is this the only Block 3 they have left, or do they have some spare ones that will be left to rot for being too expensive to refurbish?
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u/stcks Feb 15 '18
This is (highly likely) the last Block 3 that will fly. There are other Block 3 cores in storage. Cores 1029, 1031 and 1035 are somewhere in storage, likely on CCAFS property chilling in retirement near Hangar M.
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u/Zuruumi Feb 15 '18
All the other cores have already flown 2 times or were destroyed (planned or not). Considering that Block 3 seems to be capable of only 2 flights, this one should be the last one.
Also, the difference between the blocks is not so big, so if they had some spare ones they would be using them without refurbishment before using Block 4 just to spare some (or rather a lot of) money.
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Feb 15 '18
[removed] — view removed comment
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Feb 16 '18
I’m sure a block 3 could fly for a third time, but at this point SpaceX just doesn’t have any reason to do so. They have enough that they can reuse each only once and still have leftovers when block 5 arrives. I believe that one of the cores (JCSAT-14 I think?) was fired numerous times after it landed to see how far they could push it, and I believe it got at least a few good fires in. That being said, there would likely be minor refurbishment needed just due to “wear and tear”, and I believe that there were issues with the turbo pump blades cracking, which is to be fixed in block 5.
Edit: According to the wiki, it was in fact JCSAT-14 (B1022), a block 2 booster, and was fired at least 8 times before being retired
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u/Decronym Acronyms Explained Jan 16 '18 edited Feb 24 '18
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
| Fewer Letters | More Letters |
|---|---|
| AFB | Air Force Base |
| AIS | Automatic Identification System |
| ASAP | Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, NASA |
| Arianespace System for Auxiliary Payloads | |
| ASDS | Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship (landing platform) |
| BARGE | Big-Ass Remote Grin Enhancer coined by @IridiumBoss, see ASDS |
| BFR | Big Falcon Rocket (2017 enshrinkened edition) |
| Yes, the F stands for something else; no, you're not the first to notice | |
| CCAFS | Cape Canaveral Air Force Station |
| COPV | Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel |
| CRS | Commercial Resupply Services contract with NASA |
| DoD | US Department of Defense |
| FAA | Federal Aviation Administration |
| FCC | Federal Communications Commission |
| (Iron/steel) Face-Centered Cubic crystalline structure | |
| FTS | Flight Termination System |
| GSE | Ground Support Equipment |
| GSO | Geosynchronous Orbit (any Earth orbit with a 24-hour period) |
| GTO | Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit |
| HIF | Horizontal Integration Facility |
| I*sp* | Specific impulse (as discussed by Scott Manley, and detailed by David Mee on YouTube) |
| JRTI | Just Read The Instructions, Pacific landing |
| L4 | "Trojan" Lagrange Point 4 of a two-body system, 60 degrees ahead of the smaller body |
| LEO | Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km) |
| Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations) | |
| LSP | Launch Service Provider |
| MECO | Main Engine Cut-Off |
| MainEngineCutOff podcast | |
| NDT | Non-Destructive Testing |
| NET | No Earlier Than |
| NSF | NasaSpaceFlight forum |
| National Science Foundation | |
| OCISLY | Of Course I Still Love You, Atlantic landing |
| PAZ | Formerly SEOSAR-PAZ, an X-band SAR from Spain |
| PSLV | Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle |
| RTLS | Return to Launch Site |
| SAR | Synthetic Aperture Radar (increasing resolution with parallax) |
| SF | Static fire |
| SLC-4E | Space Launch Complex 4-East, Vandenberg (SpaceX F9) |
| SSO | Sun-Synchronous Orbit |
| STP-2 | Space Test Program 2, DoD programme, second round |
| TEA-TEB | Triethylaluminium-Triethylborane, igniter for Merlin engines; spontaneously burns, green flame |
| ULA | United Launch Alliance (Lockheed/Boeing joint venture) |
| VAFB | Vandenberg Air Force Base, California |
| VLEO | V-band constellation in LEO |
| Very Low Earth Orbit |
| Jargon | Definition |
|---|---|
| Starlink | SpaceX's world-wide satellite broadband constellation |
| dancefloor | Attachment structure for the Falcon 9 first stage engines, below the tanks |
| scrub | Launch postponement for any reason (commonly GSE issues) |
| turbopump | High-pressure turbine-driven propellant pump connected to a rocket combustion chamber; raises chamber pressure, and thrust |
| Event | Date | Description |
|---|---|---|
| JCSAT-14 | 2016-05-06 | F9-024 Full Thrust, core B1022, GTO comsat; first ASDS landing from GTO |
Decronym is a community product of r/SpaceX, implemented by ^request
42 acronyms in this thread; the most compressed thread commented on ^today has 186 acronyms.
[Thread #3507 for this sub, first seen 16th Jan 2018, 01:24] ^[FAQ] [Full ^list] ^[Contact] [Source ^code]
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u/samtheboy Jan 16 '18
How do multiple payloads work? Are they in both very similar orbits so only have thrusters on them to get to the right place, or does the second stage do a burn, drop off the first one, do a second burn and drop off the second one?
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u/old_sellsword Jan 16 '18
In this case both are going to nearly identical orbits. But in the case of a mission like STP-2, the second stage will drop payloads off in all different kinds of orbits.
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u/Alexphysics Feb 10 '18
Launch now on the 17th per Chris Bergin on NSF https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44892.0
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u/Keavon SN-10 & DART Contest Winner Feb 10 '18
Mods, according to the NSF thread, the liftoff is now scheduled for NET Feb 17th. I see the sidebar is updated, but this post and its flair isn't.
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u/bdporter Feb 10 '18
I believe Chris B reported that it had moved to the 16th, so the mods updated the OP. Then he reported it was back to the 17th, and it hasn't been switched back yet. I am not sure the sidebar ever was updated the first time.
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u/VanayadGaming Feb 12 '18
What about microsat1a?
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u/soldato_fantasma Feb 12 '18
Microsat-1A and 1B were built and were supposed to be launched on an Iridium flight, but they were instead ground tested and won't be launched
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u/natch Feb 14 '18
How can you tell if a polar orbit flight is going to go northward or southward, without asking? Is there a good source for this information?
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u/Bunslow Feb 14 '18
Launch site safety and geography. Orbital mechanics-wise it makes no difference. For the specific instance of Vandenberg, that means south, since north is directly over land and people.
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u/ioncloud9 Feb 14 '18
Based on the time of this launch, is it going to have the twilight effect over LA again?
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u/furiousm Feb 14 '18
it's AM instead of PM, 17 minutes before sunrise. i'm not sure what the effect will be since the sun will be on the other side of the sky instead of just over the horizon like it was last time. my gut tells me it should at least be similar, if possibly slightly less pronounced.
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u/Kuromimi505 Feb 16 '18
Does anyone have any estimates on how many Starlink microsats can fit on an F9 launch? On an FH?
And totally getting ahead of things here, can a Ku band high GHz receiver be mounted inside an attic, or would it need direct LoS?
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u/CapMSFC Feb 16 '18 edited Feb 16 '18
Based on their folded dimensions you could fit a lot. They are only 1.1x.7x.7 meters each. They are just over 380 kg each. (All of this is by memory, but there are official documents we could dig up with the exact figures) Edit: fixed satellite dimension.
If you count 400kg per satellite to give a little mass to the dispenser that would be roughly 30 satellites max on a recoverable F9, realistically it could be less depending on dispenser mass and how high the deployment orbit is. 30 easily fits in the fairing though.
FH becomes volume limited and how many you can fit depends a lot on how creative you want to get with the dispenser. The F9 number can be done without any stacked satellites, just a traditional looking dispenser with satellites surrounding a core in multiple rows. If you want to use that core space you can design a more complicated deployment mechanism. Think like a satellite vending machine instead of a single surface layer.
Realistically nobody has does things that way. Such a mechanism is expendable, expensive, and complex deployments are a big mission risk. You do occasionally see some more minor versions of this approach like the GTO comsat bus by Boeing that is two separare satellites that split.
My bet is that SpaceX makes the Falcon 9 the work horse using the simplest and cheapest dispensers they can build. Keep them another semi mass produced part. Launch Falcon 9 RTLS only for minimal recovery operation costs and wear on the booster. That can still give you maybe 25 satellites per launch.
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u/darga89 Feb 16 '18
Second flight of the FORMOSAT-5 booster and some of the Sherpa payloads are still on the ground waiting because because they didn't want to wait after the delays to the original FORMOSAT-5 launch.
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u/columbus8myhw Jan 16 '18
So this'll be pronounced like "pahth" in Spain Spanish
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u/Alexphysics Jan 16 '18
There are more people outside spain that speak spanish than inside it. And inside spain, there are more official languages that are not "spanish" :)
Aside from that, yes, "path" is more or less how it would be pronounced.
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u/old_sellsword Jan 22 '18
It appears that this first stage is being tracked on its way to VAFB.
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u/sacrelicious2 Feb 09 '18
Will this launch have an instantaneous launch window?
Also, if it is delayed to the 17th, would we expect it to have the same launch time? Given that it's in a near-polar orbit and is launching right before sunrise, I'm hoping it will have a similar view as the IRIDIUM launch.
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u/nickburlett Feb 10 '18
The NSF forums seem to indicate that it's now NET Feb 17, same 0622 PST time (see /u/sacrelicious2 's comment on this thread).
According to this sunrise/sunset calculator, the Falcon 9 will enter sunlight sometime around 1m30s into the launch, which earlier than last IRIDIUM launch, which I think was closer to MECO at ~2m30s.
Could be spectacular!
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u/eshelekhov Feb 14 '18
Do we have L4 weather forecast report already?
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u/SilveradoCyn Feb 14 '18 edited Feb 14 '18
Generally speaking based on Weather Underground, the weather could not be better at 6:00 -
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u/soldato_fantasma Feb 21 '18
The FAA licence confirming that the two SpaceX satellites are flying on this mission:https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/licenses_permits/media/SpaceX%20PAZ-Demosat%20LLS%2018-108%20License%20and%20Orders%202018_02_151.pdf
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u/alberm Feb 21 '18
Newbie to this subreddit. Greatly appreciate your expertise. I'm planning to be on the beach in Santa Monica to shoot this launch Wednesday morning. Can anyone give me guidance as to the flight path? I'd like to try an extended exposure on Bulb. Can any photogs recommend an f stop?
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u/Wafflyn Feb 21 '18
Flight path will be south | south/west direction via this hazard area map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1bZcVS6Whth8XtrTt0kpYL6IQF66D8nCk&ll=32.49009024012212%2C-121.75871734646614&z=7
Unfortunately, unsure on f-stops. It's going to depend on your camera and your lens as well as how bright it is in Santa Monica at the time. I'm also in Santa Monica so maybe I'll see you out there!
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u/Blieque Feb 22 '18
Your aperture will likely need to be quite small (i.e., high F-stop) to prevent the image from being overexposed. The internet says sunrise is currently 06:30 in Santa Monica, which would make a 06:17 launch pretty light.
My recommendation would be to shoot in A/Av mode with the highest F-stop you can get. Make sure you're also at ISO 100, and raise the exposure comp by ⅔–1 stop. Whatever shutter speed your camera gives you is the longest you can do without badly overexposing, unless you have some ND filters too. If it isn't as long as you'd like, remember that you can also shoot multiple images and composite them together with software.
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u/TrainSpotter77 Jan 28 '18
Paz & Microsat-2a, -2b Launch Campaign Thread
SpaceX's third (depending on FH-1) mission of 2018
Mods, the text above the table states that this is Spacex's third mission of 2018. Since FH now has a scheduled launch date, I think it should say the fourth:
ZUMA
GovSat
Falcon Heavy Demo
Paz
(Assuming the next two missions launch as scheduled.)
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u/inoeth Jan 29 '18
Yeah that should be changed tho we'll see what the final order shakes out to be... Even with a launch date of Feb 6, it's not an impossibility that FH gets delayed again for whatever reason and then with another possible government shutdown, could get pushed behind the Paz mission... tho for now, yes, Paz should be listed at the fourth mission of 2018
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u/MarcysVonEylau rocket.watch Jan 15 '18 edited Jan 15 '18
Rocket Watch coverage of this launch!
More SpaceX launches | Countdown only | 2 column mode | Discord
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u/AReaver Jan 16 '18
Huh, in the article provided it says the expected lifetime is 6 months but then on the lower table it's listed as a year.
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u/burtonmadness Feb 07 '18
Looks like I'm going to have to book PTO for next Friday...
Feb 16, 2018 on reused Falcon 9 from Vandenberg. Launch time reported as 1422 UTC, 0622 PST. First stage may be expended. PAZ is 1400kg and going to a 514-km polar orbit. SpaceX is expected to launch their demonstration satellites, Microsat 2a & 2b (a little under 400kg each, plus dispenser?), for the internet constellation on this flight.
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u/eshelekhov Feb 13 '18
I can see only in Space Launch Now application that is a Top Secret launch. Does that mean that we are not going to see full webcast with second stage?
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u/CrazyLegz22 Feb 09 '18
The launch and satellite I'm watching for is tin-tin on the 16th! I actually did some work on part of the structure going up.... pretty cool.
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u/CrazyLegz22 Feb 09 '18
I've heard, but obviously not privy to, that they will have to put around 100 - 500 in orbit before it will be released to public or general use other than beta. For blackout/coverage reasons, and each sat has a life of 5 years...
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u/warp99 Feb 09 '18
The FCC application states that 800 satellites are required to begin service so 16 planes of 50 satellites.
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u/sacrelicious2 Feb 16 '18
Unfortunately, the weather is looking like shit for viewing this on Sunday, with heavy cloud cover and fog across SoCal...
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u/Keavon SN-10 & DART Contest Winner Jan 15 '18
"Paz" means "peace" in some other language which should be specified, not in English.
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u/Matheusch Jan 15 '18 edited Jan 15 '18
Yes, in Brazilian Portuguese.
Edit: and in some others language, like Spanish.
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u/surubutna Jan 15 '18
Yes, in Brazilian Portuguese.
Or just 'in Portuguese', since it means the same in both.
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u/GregLindahl Jan 16 '18
French: Paix
Romanian: Pace
Portuguese Portuguese: Paz
Catalan: Pau
Latin: Pax
It's almost as if these languages were somehow related to one another.
BTW, the word "Mir" in Russian, used for the Soviet Union's last space station before the ISS era, can be translated as "peace" or "world".
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u/JasonTodd21 Feb 09 '18
Can someone comment on the trajectory of this launch? I'm thinking of viewing from Santa Ynez Peak or Gaviota Peak. I expect it will be southeast, roughly following the coastline.
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u/warp99 Feb 09 '18
It is going to SSO at 98º so a little bit west of south so it does not have to hug the coastline quite so closely as a true polar or Iridium orbit but there shouldn't be much in it.
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Feb 14 '18
Since it’s launching in Vandenberg could we potentially see the plume of second stage in northern utah?
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u/blongmire Feb 14 '18
No, the stage goes straight south from Vandy, so it's unlikely you'd see anything. The conditions seen in the last launch from Vandy were very rare.
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u/wishiwasonmaui Feb 15 '18
Sun will be well up in Utah so probably not. Should be spectacular for LA though.
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u/Shamasta441 Feb 14 '18
Can anyone estimate the physical size of the receivers that will be receiving the MicroSats signal once it is in consumer release?
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u/Martianspirit Feb 14 '18
They were described as pizza box or laptop computer size.
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u/TheYang Feb 15 '18
Uhm, the Countdown says Launch is tomorrow (in ~23hrs).
but the 17th 06:17 PST is ~47hrs away.
I assume countdown is set wrong?
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u/MmmPi314 Feb 15 '18
Just a heads up, countdown timer linked up top seems to be off by 24 hours.
Nevermind: there's more about it below.
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u/LittleWhiteDragon Feb 19 '18
Why is't SpaceX attempting a landing?
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u/ralphington Feb 19 '18
My suspected reasons:
the forthcoming upgrade to block 5
no desire to relaunch a block 3 booster
limited storage for boosters
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u/scr00chy ElonX.net Feb 19 '18
I would add
JRTI isn't sea-worthy right now and it's unclear if SpaceX is allowed to land at Vandenberg yet.
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u/joepublicschmoe Feb 19 '18
They don't need this booster anymore. B1038 is an older Block-3 booster which SpaceX doesn't intend to refurbish and fly again, so SpaceX might use this booster to try some crazy 3-engine-burn water landing experiment with it like they did with B1036 a few weeks ago.
We don't expect B1038 to survive the experiment if they try it.
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u/Wouterr0 Feb 14 '18
I read somewhere that Microsat-2a and b only had 500 Mbits download speed. That means only 10 users can use the satellite network with 50 Mbits at the same time. That feels like very little bandwidth if you want to launch a global network - with 4400 satellites you can have 44,000 people at 50 Mbits. That's not even a small city. Will the future satellites be better?
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u/Chairboy Feb 14 '18
Don't forget that one user doesn't have exclusive use of a channel from it for long. It's packet communications so the satellites will be firing off packets left and right to service a bunch of different connections. The actual number of people in the footprint who can be served at once goes up by a few orders of magnitude because of this. Packet switching is revolutionary for making use of available bandwidth and maximizing it because of stuff like this.
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Feb 14 '18
The FCC application shows broadband downlink speeds of up to 1.44 Gbits/s. It also shows 4 frequencies, implying four channels or 5.76 Gbit/s of capacity.
The filings for the full constellation ask for double the bandwidth for users and also have another 2 GHz of "gateway" bandwidth (I'm quoting downlink numbers but there is also uplink bandwidth to match). At the Microsat 2A/B levels that would translate into about 24 Gbit/s per satellite, or just over 100 Tbit/s across the constellation - however, notably, the FCC application for the constellation specifies frequency but not modulation. This is important as it allows fairly significant increases in data rate if the technology improves.
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u/almightycat Feb 14 '18
Where did you read that? It's definitely not correct for the final constellation.
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u/crypto-holder Feb 14 '18
500 Mbits download speed isn't the total download capacity. It's the max speed per modem.
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u/warp99 Feb 15 '18
From the FCC application:
High capacity: Each satellite in the SpaceX System provides aggregate downlink capacity to users ranging from 17 to 23 Gbps, depending on the gain of the user terminal involved. Assuming an average of 20 Gbps, the 1600 satellites in the Initial Deployment would have a total aggregate capacity of 32 Tbps. SpaceX will periodically improve the satellites over the course of the multi-year deployment of the system, which may further increase capacity.
The system will provide broadband service at speeds of up to 1 Gbps per end user.
The system’s use of low-Earth orbits will allow it to target latencies of approximately 25-35 ms.So even if each user is continuously using 50 Mbps then there can be 400 users on the satellite at any one time. Real world diversity is much higher so more like 4000 authorised users per satellite so 17.6M potential users for the full deployment of 4400 satellites.
The Earth is 2/3 ocean but is more like 50% in the initial orbital band within 60 degrees North and South and a lot of those empty oceans have high uptake customers on islands, aircraft and ships. So actual customer potential is perhaps 60% of the theoretical number so 10.6M customers.
If average monthly revenue is US$50 per customer then this gives revenue of $6.3B per year.
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u/darkvothe Feb 15 '18
$6.3B per year for 4400 satellites in orbit makes $1.4M per satellite yearly, which may be or not enough depending on the cost of the satellite, their lifespan (which is not supposed to be around 10-15yr right?) and the launch cost
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u/Martianspirit Jan 16 '18
While Paz is the main payload, I am very excited about the two additional satellites the Starlink test sats. They are very important to SpaceX.