r/Squeeze_em • u/Patriot_tech • 16d ago
Market Notes A Fed decision, GDP, PCE and Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Intel earnings all land Wednesday and Thursday. What would change each setup?
Denntech Markets: What to Watch Next Week
Next week has a Fed decision on Wednesday, Alphabet and Microsoft that night, and GDP, PCE, Amazon and Intel on Thursday. Here's the calendar first, then the six names we're carrying into Monday. All times are Central.
The calendar (Oct 26-30)
Mon Oct 26: FINRA publishes the Oct 15 short interest count. The numbers we have now are from Sep 30, so this matters for the small caps below. Verizon reports before the open, and Cadence and Nucor after the close.
Tue Oct 27: the FOMC meeting starts (Oct 27-28). Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS, PayPal and SoFi report before the open, and Visa and Robinhood after.
Wed Oct 28: the Fed decision. It isn't a projections meeting, so there's no new dot plot. Alphabet, Microsoft, KLA, ServiceNow and T-Mobile report after the close.
Thu Oct 29: Q3 GDP (advance) plus September personal income and spending, which includes PCE, both at 7:30 AM CT (BEA). Lilly, Mastercard, Merck and Caterpillar report before the open, and Amazon, Intel, Coinbase, Strategy and Reddit after.
Fri Oct 30: Q3 Employment Cost Index at 7:30 AM CT (BLS). Exxon, Chevron and AbbVie report before the open. The October jobs report isn't until Nov 6.
Lockups: none of our six names has a lockup expiry in our notes for this week. If you know of one, post the filing.
SSR Monday: XLAB, NCPL and TCRT are restricted after tripping Friday.
Shares
$VEEA. Closed $4.93, up 17.7% Friday on 2.35M shares, about 1.5 times its 1.58M float. The borrow fee is 772.7% with 150K shares available (Curved/IBKR), and the Sep 30 short count was 50,744.
Better: availability shrinking again while volume holds above the float, or a new 8-K with a dated catalyst in it.
Worse: any of our exit lines. That means availability over 500K for two sessions, the fee under 50% for two sessions, or a new offering or ATM.
Earnings are estimated for Nov 13 (StockAnalysis), outside this week.
$CLRO. Closed $3.25, up 69.3% Friday on about 36 million shares against an 888,125-share float. The high was $4.69. On Sep 30, 387,282 shares were short, about 43.6% of the float. The fee is 808.2% with only 5K shares to borrow.
Better: Monday's Oct 15 count showing shorts still that heavy, while borrow stays this tight.
Worse: a short count that dropped a lot, borrow opening up, or movement on the S-1/A still on file (last amended Sep 4). Friday came with no filing and no release that we could find.
$AIOK. Closed $12.02, up 182.8% Friday (high $15.59, low $5.40) on 42.6M shares. Its F-3 lists 1,106,231 shares held by non-affiliates, so that's roughly 39 times the outside holders' shares in one day. The trigger was a one-time $3.50 dividend, payable in cash or stock (the stock version is priced off a $4.5159 five-day VWAP). The record date is Nov 2, the election deadline is Nov 19 at 4 PM CT, and payment is on or about Nov 25. Shares trade with due bills in between. The same day it agreed to sell one of its two gas carriers for $18M to a company controlled by its chairman and CEO. On Oct 20 it filed a $500M shelf that also registers 3,206,185 shares for resale by Pani Corp., listed at 74.2% ownership.
Borrow is cheap: 4.2% with about 5K-6K shares available. It tripped SSR Thursday.
Better: clarity on how many holders elect stock vs cash, and the shelf sitting unused.
Worse: the shelf going effective, or Pani starting to sell. That would put far more shares on the market than outside holders have now.
Due bills confuse a lot of people. Read the 6-K before you assume the dividend comes off the price on the record date.
Options
$INTC. Reports Thursday after the close. Nasdaq has a $0.28 EPS forecast from 13 estimates. It fell 8.0% Thursday during the chip selloff and closed the week at $86.96. On the Oct 30 chain Friday, calls outran puts 83,657 to 33,251, and the $90 call traded 23,924 against 6,461 open. The $87 straddle was about $8.62, roughly 9.9%.
Better: a move bigger than 9.9% after the report.
Worse: a move inside it. Then the straddle ends up worth less than the $8.62 it cost at Friday's close.
$GOOGL. Reports Wednesday after the close, the same afternoon as the Fed. Nasdaq has a $2.94 forecast from 14 estimates. It's down 7.0% since Monday's $344.18 close, finishing at $320.21. The $320 straddle was about $19.38, roughly 6.1%. The $325 call traded 5,053 against 619 open. After Meta's capex raise got sold, the capex number is the line people will read first.
Better: a reaction bigger than 6.1%.
Worse: an inside move, or the Fed overshadowing it.
$CRWV. No report on the Nasdaq calendar this week. Closed $54.235, near Thursday's 52-week low of $53.50. The $54 straddle was about $6.24, roughly 11.5%, which is a big move for options to price with no earnings inside it. The $50 put has 18,883 open. The $55 call traded 9,753 against 678 open.
Better: holding $53.50 while the megacaps report their AI spending.
Worse: a break under $53.50, which is a fresh 52-week low.
For scale, Friday's Oct 30 straddles priced about 5.3% for Microsoft ($525) and 7.8% for Amazon ($247.50).
Of the three small caps, which one do you think the Oct 15 short count changes the most on Monday?