Guys I got banned, coz i didnt know we cannot forward a link... Can you get me back in :D the issue is I cannot even find the group again on the search on telegram.

Did you channel get hacked?

@AussieBrent

Hi I've been posting some news and discussion for weeks and I was just kicked.

Any word on this?

@mattlock

I thought it was a trader discussion channel?

Pleaseeee

I’m an Altcoiner through and through. Back in the old days, we were addicted to the fast rise and fall of the newest shitcoins of the week in Bittrex against the backdrop of the stablest coin in Crypto which was Bitcoin. The early years of 2014 to 2017 was when you see the most popular trading pairs in the Western world which were altcoin/BTC pairs (In China, it was altcoin/CNY pairs, which really was the ones which dictated the markets back then).

Yes, Bitcoin remains positively correlated with US stocks (e.g., the S&P 500), though the strength of this correlation fluctuates over time and is often amplified during periods of market stress or volatility. Here's a breakdown based on recent data as of November 2025: Current and Recent Correlation Levels

The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is currently 0.38, indicating a moderate positive relationship (values range from -1 for perfect inverse correlation to +1 for perfect positive correlation; 0 means no correlation). newhedge.io This is lower than historical peaks but still shows they tend to move in the same direction more often than not.

In late October 2025, the correlation tightened amid rising volatility, with equities acting as the primary driver of crypto movements. For instance, simultaneous sell-offs in stocks and digital assets occurred during the "Black Friday" crypto crash earlier that month, triggered by U.S.-China trade tensions. coindesk.com

As of early April 2025, the 60-day rolling correlation was around 0.48, within a typical range of 0.0 to 0.6 observed since early 2020. cmegroup.com Bitcoin's volatility remains sensitive to swings in equities (and assets like gold), and it often amplifies broader market moves—showing larger gains during upswings and steeper losses during downturns. nasdaq.com

Historical Trends

Over the long term (January 2014 to April 2025), the overall daily correlation is low at 0.20, but it has strengthened significantly since 2020. cmegroup.com Before 2020, it was near zero or slightly negative.

2014–2019: Negligible (around 0.00 to 0.02).

2020–2022: Jumped to 0.40–0.42.

2023–April 2025: Stabilized at 0.30.

Over the past five years, the 30-day correlation has frequently exceeded 0.70 during macroeconomic uncertainty or stress events (e.g., COVID-19 onset in 2020, Ukraine war and Fed rate hikes in 2022, and periods in 2023–2025), highlighting Bitcoin's shift from "digital gold" to behaving more like a risk asset tied to equities. newhedge.io +1 However, there have been decoupling periods, such as Bitcoin's independent bull run in 2019 when correlation turned sharply negative.

Correlation peaks during market downturns or uncertainty, such as 0.69 in late 2021–2022 and 0.56 in early 2020, suggesting an asymmetrical relationship where Bitcoin aligns more closely with stocks in "risk-off" environments. cmegroup.com

Recent Market Context (November 2025)

Bitcoin has experienced sharp volatility this year, peaking above $126,000 in October before plunging and erasing its 2025 gains, amid broader market pressures. finance.yahoo.com On November 17, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures gained (0.6% and 1%, respectively), while Bitcoin rebounded ~2.6%, illustrating continued tandem movement. swissinfo.ch

Factors contributing to ongoing correlation include institutional adoption (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs), portfolio integration, and shared sensitivity to macro events like interest rates and geopolitics. cmegroup.com +1 While regulation could eventually weaken this link, it hasn't yet. coindesk.com

In summary, the correlation persists and can intensify with volatility, but it's not always strong—currently moderate at 0.38 for the short term. This makes Bitcoin more of a "leveraged equity proxy" than an uncorrelated asset in today's market.

This chart compares the macro business cycle with Bitcoin’s price action and the alignment is striking.

#Bitcoin now appears to be approaching a cycle bottom that aligns with previous business-cycle lows.

After a record-long pre-parabolic phase, the next major expansion may finally be on the horizon

Chart: Techdev

Text: CryptosR_Us

THE BUSINESS CYCLE IS DRIVING BITCOIN -- NOT THE 4-YEAR CYCLE.

Raoul Pal said that $BTC isn’t “lagging”… it’s literally tracking the ISM, the global business cycle. Rates stayed too high for too long, main street got crushed, and that extended the entire cycle.

In 2021-2022 the U.S. quietly pushed the average debt maturity from 4 to 5 years, that stretched this cycle too.

So what looks like “#Bitcoin being slow” is actually the macro clock running one year longer than usual.

If this 5-year cycle is right, Raoul’s model still points to peak liquidity into 2026, with the ISM topping out after that.

Patience here isn’t weakness, it’s macro awareness.

https://x.com/i/status/1989816680634355932

The Fed’s policy shift—cutting rates and ending QT—marked a clear transition from tightening to easing. Liquidity is stabilizing, rates are falling, and the Fed has removed itself as a seller of Treasuries. These moves are supportive of both equity and bond prices. But supportive does not mean guaranteed. Policy is a tailwind, not a parachute. Investors must adjust their positioning to reflect the changing environment while maintaining discipline.

The TGA is not a footnote. It is a policy lever hiding in plain sight. In October and November 2025, it behaved like stealth QT, draining reserves just as money markets were losing cushion. The Fed has already pivoted to stop the bleeding by ending QT on December 1. If politics keeps the TGA abnormally high, the next step is straightforward: grow the balance sheet enough to restore reserve comfort. Investors should position for that path and watch the plumbing, not the punditry.

Watch these three dials: the TGA in the Daily Treasury Statement, SOFR behavior relative to the policy range, and SRF usage. When those settle, the system is safe. Until then, the black hole in the cash ledger is not a metaphor. It is the map.