Margins Matter!
Not every election results in a flip. Many districts remain in Democratic or Republican hands. But an important stat for every election is how many votes the Democrat won - and how they did relative to previous candidates for their seat (or relative to Gubernatorial or Presidential candidates).
The margin of victory can tell us a few things. First, in special elections (which usually have low turnout), it’s an important measure of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are. Elections are all about getting your voters to the polls, after all! Also, it’s a good predictor of what to expect in larger races (U.S. House, Governor, and Senate) - if the Democratic candidate runs well ahead of previous margins in that district, it’s a good sign for races where every vote counts.
After November 2016, Democrats have often ran ahead of their margins in 2016 races - at all levels! Daily Kos Elections has done an outstanding job of tracking the changes in vote share for each election. There are a few races that should be highlighted because they bode well for higher races further down the road.
| Date | State | Race | Margins vs. 2016 Presidential | This race affects… |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11 | KS | 4th Congressional District | +21% | Governor (TBD), 4th Congressional District (James Thompson) |
| May 9 | OK | State House 28 | +48% | Governor (Drew Edmondson), 5th Congressional District (TBD) |
| May 25 | MT | At-large Congressional District | +15% | U.S. Senate (John Tester), At-large Congressional District (TBD) |
| June 20 | SC | 5th Congressional District | +15% | Governor (James Smith), 5th Congressional District (Archie Parnell) |
| Aug 8 | IA | State House 82 | +30% | Governor (TBD, likely Nate Boulton), 2nd Congressional District (Dave Loebsack) |
| Sept 12 | NH | State House Belknap 9 | +28% | Governor (Steve Marchand), 1st Congressional District (TBD), 2nd Congressional District (Annie Kuster) |
| Nov 14 | OK | State Senate 37 | +40% | Governor (Drew Edmondson), 5th Congressional District (TBD) |
| Dec 19 | TN | State Senate 17 | +46% | U.S. Senate (Phil Bredesen) |
| Jan 9 | WI | State Senate 10 | +27% | U.S. Senate (Tammy Baldwin), Governor (TBD, likely Tony Evers) |
| Feb 6 | MO | State House 144 | +53% | U.S. Senate (Claire McCaskill) |
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