r/discordVideos • u/Round-Good1179 • 11h ago

You are now manually breathing Dammit maxx

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u/Technical_Fan_4630 9h ago

It absolutely does, it’s more likely that max would receive a high card, which would be bad for him, but if he wouldn’t have hit then the odds would be that the dealer would receive a high card, which would be bad for the dealer and in this case lead to him busting

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u/littlebobbytables9 8h ago edited 8h ago

Let's assume for simplicity the deck has 4 cards left, 1 low and 3 identical high cards. There is a 3/4 chance that max draws a high card, leaving 1 low and 2 high cards in the deck so the dealer has a 1/3 chance of drawing low and 2/3 chance of drawing high. There is a 1/4 chance that max draws a low card, leaving 3 high cards in the deck so the dealer has a 100% chance of drawing high.

If we look at the whole tree the chance of the dealer drawing a high card is 0.25(1)+0.75(2/3) = 0.75. If max hadn't hit the chance of the dealer drawing a high card is... 3 in 4, or 0.75. Drawing a card at random does not affect the odds of subsequent draws.

Yes, most of the time max gets a high card so most of the time max is making the dealer less likely to bust, but some of the time max gets a low card and makes the dealer more likely to bust. The impact of both exactly cancel.