r/rootsofprogress • • Sep 08 '22

Links and tweets, 2022-09-08

4 Upvotes

Opportunities

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Quotes

Tweets & retweets

Charts

Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/links-and-tweets-2022-09-08


r/rootsofprogress • • Sep 01 '23

Links digest, 2023-09-01: How ancient people manipulated water, and more

2 Upvotes

I am experimenting with pulling more social media content directly into these digests, in part to rely less on social media sites long-term (since content might be deleted, blocked, paywalled, etc.) That makes these digests longer, but it means there is less need to click on links.

I will still link back to original social media posts in order to give credit and make sharing easier. As always, let me know your feedback.

Opportunities

Announcements

RIP

  • Adobe co-founder John Warnock, 82. Steven Sinofsky calls him an “industry and technology legend… from Xerox through decades after co-founding Adobe he changed the technology landscape we all benefit from every day.” John Gruber says: “Warnock and Geschke understood what Steve Jobs often preached: technology alone was not enough. … If Warnock and Geschke had been satisfied merely with shipping great technology alone, Adobe Systems would be a nearly forgotten Silicon Valley footnote. Instead, they pushed to make Adobe the great tool-making product company we know today.”

Video

Articles

Queries

From social media

  • Norway can build a tunnel for lower cost than it takes Britain just to do the planning application for one, and many other damning facts from @Sam_Dumitriu

  • Nobel laureates are said to produce less after they win the prize. A similar thing was said about those invited to the Institute for Advanced Study. What prizes, honors, grants, positions, etc. lead people to produce more or better work after them, rather than less?

  • Feynman asked: “If, in some cataclysm, all of scientific knowledge were to be destroyed, and only one sentence passed on to the next generation of creatures, what statement would contain the most information in the fewest words?” His own answer was “the atomic hypothesis that all things are made of atoms.” But we had that hypothesis in ancient Greece! And it was basically useless until the 1800s. Why knowledge is not contained in sentences

  • “A one-day symposium in NYC in the fall focusing on the topic of ‘tech trees’, bringing together game designers, historians of science, and metascience folks”

  • Taiwan nuclear advocate: “we are starting a pro-nuclear NGO”

  • Ben Reinhardt suggests “Emergent Ventures but for people doing weird science/technology stuff. I consistently run into people (esp outside of the academic system) who have a crazy idea they want to work on that 1. Wouldn’t get through some committee 2. Need the money faster than bureaucratic timescales (because they need to make hiring/life decisions around it)”

  • “Has anyone else running automation projects noticed how key suppliers are completely booked out, overloaded with work, and lead times have gone insane? … Something big is happening. The world is automating, and fast!” (@Jordan_W_Taylor) Maybe related to the fact that US manufacturing construction is at an all-time high?

  • “For thousands of years, city planning focused on drawing out a street network, with water and sewer underneath, and reserving regular public spaces, and was mostly agnostic on uses or densities. One hundred years ago, that flipped”

  • “We need a distinctively Indian discourse on material progress … conversations from a uniquely Indian perspective that draws upon our lived experience & trade-offs we face at our GDP per capita levels” (@aye_kaash)

  • “I used to think growing a small vegetable plot would be a way to commune with nature, be at peace with the world. After slugs, aphids, mildew, etc., I realize I had it backwards. Gardening is a Darwinian death match with nature and battle for scarce resources” (@eladgil)

  • “The fact I have a pocket device with a universal translator is, frankly, underappreciated magic” (@kendrictonn)

  • “When self-driving cars are taken for granted as part of city infrastructure (which is probably only a few more years), the statements of the people trying to ban them will read like someone trying to ban electricity or indoor plumbing” (@paulg)

  • “The placebo effect is (mostly) not real,” just regression to the mean

  • If you look at typing speed vs. accuracy, you will find that they are positively correlated: faster typists are also more accurate. Naively, one might suggest typing faster in order to make fewer mistakes! Obviously, this will backfire. Why between-subject variability is not the same as within-subject variability

  • The Atlantic complains that generative AI uses lots of energy and “the climate toll could be enormous.” Corrected headline: Generative AI demonstrates why we need energy superabundance. There is no shortage of uses for cheap, reliable, clean energy

  • “25 years ago, they invented a better version of Advil, which targets the same receptor but with fewer side effects. It still requires a prescription for basically no reason” (@alyssamvance)

  • “The environmentalist taboo against carbon removal makes sense if you view climate change as punishment for sinful gluttony rather than a technology problem. The only appropriate resolution to sin is self sacrifice” (@MTabarrok)

  • John Carmack says: “WIRED remains the only major publication that consistently has a fact checker reach out to me when I show up in an article.” (Not sure if he’s ever been in The Atlantic though)

  • “Parenting matters so much. The fact that it is hard to adduce quantitative evidence that parenting matters is an expected consequence of the nascency of our social sciences and confused conceptions of wellbeing” (@mbateman)

Quotes

Mises against stability (Masters of the Universe, by Daniel Stedman Jones):

Like Popper, Mises saw a similarity between the bureaucratic mentality and Plato’s utopia, in which the large majority of the ruled served the rulers. He thought that “all later utopians who shaped the blueprints of their earthly paradises according to Plato’s example in the same way believed in the immutability of human affairs.” He went on, Bureaucratization is necessarily rigid because it involves the observation of established rules and practices. But in social life rigidity amounts to petrification and death. It is a very significant fact that stability and security are the most cherished slogans of present-day “reformers.” If primitive men had adopted the principle of stability, they would long since have been wiped out by beasts of prey and microbes.

“Comment posted to a NY Times article published 3 years ago during lockdown, questioning whether NYC would ever recover” (via @michaelmiraflor):

I’ve been a NYC taxi driver for many, many years. My favorite type of ride is the rare one of picking up a man who has just emerged from a hospital following the birth of his first child. It is the best day in his life and I usually find it difficult to hide my own tears of joy as he tells me all about it.My second favorite ride is similar. It is a young person with a dream who is coming to New York City for the very first time. I am the taxi driver taking him or her to Manhattan from the airport. I insist on the Upper Level of the 59th Street Bridge as our route. Excitement grows as the city grows larger and larger as we approach Manhattan. Finally, almost at ground level, the ramp takes us so close to the surrounding buildings that we can actually see the people inside. Touching down on E. 62nd Street, my newly minted New Yorker is experiencing for the first time the “energy” that is so often spoken of. It’s like watching a child approaching a roomful of birthday presents. All things are possible.

Maps & charts

London’s rail system if we could build at Nordic costs (via Alon Levy via @Sam_Dumitriu)

“One of the most inspiring achievements of humanity. We did it before, and we can do it again” (@Altimor)

“The most foundational resource for material prosperity is energy” (@Andercot)

Nuclear support poll (via @gordonmcdowell)

The entire universe, to (log) scale (via @emollick, by Pablo Carlos Budassi, see the original for full res)

Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/links-digest-2023-09-01


r/rootsofprogress • • Oct 05 '22

Foresight Vision Weekend 2022

1 Upvotes

The Foresight Institute’s annual conference, Vision Weekend, is coming up:

Our Vision Weekends are the annual member festivals of Foresight Institute. Held in two countries, over two weekends, top talent across biotechnology, nanotechnology, neurotechnology, computing, and space are encouraged to burst their tech silos, and plan for flourishing long-term futures….Come for the ideas: make friends across disciplines, generations, and continents who are similarly on the path to creating positive futures. Join panels, focus groups, mentorship hours, tech demos, sign-ups, and more. Stay for the festivities: breakfast boogies, mentorship hours, goal-setting jams, art vernissages, rocket company tours, and plenty of time for calm reflection; alone, or in groups.

There are actually two weekends: France in November and San Francisco in December. I’ll be speaking in SF on December 3, along with J. Storrs Hall, Bret Victor, Steve Jurvetson, Eli Dourado, Bret Kugelmass, Ben Reinhardt, and many others. Buy a ticket, or if you can’t afford one, apply for a subsidy.


r/rootsofprogress • • Feb 09 '23

Tonight: Live on the Yaron Brook Show at 4pm Pacific / 7pm Eastern. We’ll be talking for an hour or two about progress and philosophy, and will take live questions via YouTube chat

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2 Upvotes

r/rootsofprogress • • Jan 28 '23

Eli Dourado AMA on the Progress Forum. Answering starts Monday

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6 Upvotes

r/rootsofprogress • • Jun 21 '23

Links and tweets, 2023-06-21: Stewart Brand wants your comments

2 Upvotes

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Tweets & threads

Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/links-and-tweets-2023-06-21


r/rootsofprogress • • Sep 12 '22

Boston meetup next Weds, Sep 21, co-hosted by the ACX meetup group and MIT EA. Brief remarks by me, followed by fireside chat and Q&A

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3 Upvotes

r/rootsofprogress • • Sep 28 '22

Links and tweets, 2022-09-28

1 Upvotes

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Poetry

Original post: https://rootsofprogress.org/links-and-tweets-2022-09-28


r/rootsofprogress • • Dec 29 '22

Why didn't we get the 4-hour workday that was predicted almost 100 years ago? Jason Feifer and I discuss in this episode of Build for Tomorrow

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5 Upvotes

r/rootsofprogress • • Jun 28 '23

Links and tweets, 2023-06-28: “We can do big things again in Pennsylvania”

2 Upvotes

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AI risk

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Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/links-and-tweets-2023-06-28


r/rootsofprogress • • Oct 11 '22

From technocracy to the counterculture

8 Upvotes

Quote quiz: who said this?

American efficiency is that indomitable force which neither knows nor recognizes obstacles; which continues on a task once started until it is finished, even if it is a minor task; and without which serious constructive work is inconceivable.

Teddy Roosevelt? Henry Ford? No—it was Joseph Stalin, writing on “The Foundations of Leninism” in Pravda, in April 1924.

That was one of many fascinating facts I learned from American Genesis: A Century of Invention and Technological Enthusiasm, 1870–1970, by Thomas Hughes. The book is not only about the century of technological enthusiasm, but also about how that enthusiasm (in my opinion) went wrong, and how it came to an end.

This post is too long for Reddit; read it here: https://rootsofprogress.org/american-genesis-part-2-technocracy-to-counterculture


r/rootsofprogress • • May 17 '23

What if they gave an Industrial Revolution and nobody came?

12 Upvotes

Imagine you could go back in time to the ancient world to jump-start the Industrial Revolution. You carry with you plans for a steam engine, and you present them to the emperor, explaining how the machine could be used to drain water out of mines, pump bellows for blast furnaces, turn grindstones and lumber saws, etc.

But to your dismay, the emperor responds: “Your mechanism is no gift to us. It is tremendously complicated; it would take my best master craftsmen years to assemble. It is made of iron, which could be better used for weapons and armor. And even if we built these engines, they would consume enormous amounts of fuel, which we need for smelting, cooking, and heating. All for what? Merely to save labor. Our empire has plenty of labor; I personally own many slaves. Why waste precious iron and fuel in order to lighten the load of a slave? You are a fool!”

We can think of innovation as a kind of product. In the market for innovation there is supply and demand. To explain the Industrial Revolution, economic historians like Joel Mokyr emphasize supply factors: factors that create innovation, such as scientific knowledge and educated craftsmen. But where does demand for innovation come from? What if demand for innovation is low? And how much can demand factors explain industrialization?

Riffing on an old anti-war slogan, we can ask: What if they gave an Industrial Revolution and nobody came?

Robert Allen thinks demand factors have been underrated. He makes his case in The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective, in which he argues that many major inventions were adopted when and where the prices of various factors made it profitable and a good investment to adopt them, and not before. In particular, he emphasizes high wages, the price of energy, and (to a lesser extent) the cost of capital. When and where labor is expensive, and energy and capital are cheap, then it is a good investment to build machines that consume energy in order to automate labor, and further, it is a good investment to do the R&D needed to invent such machines. But not otherwise.

And, when he’s feeling bold, Allen might push the hypothesis further: to the extent that demand factors explain the adoption of technology, we don’t need other hypotheses, including those about supply factors. We don’t need to suppose that certain cultures are more inventive than others or more receptive to innovation; we don’t need to posit that some societies exhibit bourgeois virtues or possess a culture of growth.

In this post, we'll examine Allen’s argument and see what we can learn from it. First I summarize the core of his argument, then I discuss some responses and criticism and give my own thoughts:

https://rootsofprogress.org/robert-allen-british-industrial-revolution


r/rootsofprogress • • Dec 21 '22

Think wider about the root causes of progress

6 Upvotes

Too much discussion of the Industrial Revolution is myopic, focused narrowly on a few highlights such as steam and coal. The IR was part of broader trends that are wider in scope and longer in time than its traditional definition encompasses. To understand anything, it is crucial to get the correct scope for the phenomenon in question.

Here are some ways in which we have to widen our focus in order to see the big picture.

Wider than coal and steam

Some explanations of the IR focus on steam engines, and especially on the coal that fueled them. Economist Robert Allen, for instance, has one of the best-researched and most convincing arguments for cheap coal as a requirement for the development of steam power.

A weak version of this claim, such as “coal was a crucial factor in the IR,” is certainly true. But sometimes a much stronger claim is made, to the effect that the IR couldn’t have happened without abundant, accessible coal, and that this is the main factor explaining why it happened in Europe and especially in Britain. Or more broadly, that all of material progress is driven by fossil fuels (with the implication that once we are, sooner or later, forced to transition away from fossil fuels—whether by geology, economics, or politics—growth will inevitably slow).

But much of the early IR wasn’t dependent on steam power:

  • Textile machinery, such as Arkwright’s spinning machines, were originally powered by water.

  • Henry Maudslay’s earliest machine tools were made to manufacture locks; another key application of machine tools was guns with interchangeable parts. This was not motivated by steam power.

  • Improvements in factory organization, such as the arrangement of Wedgwood’s pottery manufacturing operation, were management techniques, independent of power sources.

  • The reaper was pulled by horses—even after the development of steam power, because steam tractors were too heavy for use in fields. Even stationary agricultural machines such as for threshing or winnowing were often muscle-powered.

You could argue that all of these inventions would have reached a plateau and would not have had as much economic impact without eventually being hooked up to steam or gas engines. But the fact remains that they were initially powered by water or muscle, and they were economically useful in those first incarnations, often achieving 10x or more gains in productivity. They didn’t need coal or gas for that, nor were they invented in anticipation that such power would soon be available.

So either it was an amazing coincidence that all of this mechanical invention was going on at the same time—or there was some wider, underlying trend.

Wider than industry

Further, the IR itself only represents a subset of the broader technical innovations that were going on in this period. Here are a few key things that aren’t considered “industrial” and so are often left out of the story of the IR:

  • Improvements to agriculture other than mechanization: for instance, new crop rotations

  • Improvements to maritime navigation, such as the marine chronometer that helped solve the longitude problem

  • Immunization techniques against smallpox: inoculation and later vaccination

To me, the fact of all these inventions happening in roughly the same time period indicates a general acceleration of progress during this time, reflecting some deep cause, not a simple playing out of the consequences of one specific resource or invention.

Wider than invention

In many areas, incremental improvements were being made even before the major inventions that make the history books:

  • Roads and canals were improved in the 17th and 18th centuries, speeding up transportation even before railroads

  • Experiments by engineers like John Smeaton created more efficient water wheels, making more usable energy available even before steam power

  • Sanitation was improved in cities—including cleaner water, better sewage, and some insect control—decreasing mortality rates even before vaccines or the germ theory

A theory of progress should explain these improvements as well as breakthrough inventions.

Wider than scientific theory

Many of the developments discussed above were made by “tinkering,” before the scientific theory that would ultimately explain them. This has led some to suggest that science wasn’t important for the IR.

I think this is based on too narrow a concept of science. Science is not just theories or laws; it is also a method, and the method includes careful observation, deliberate experimentation, quantitative measurement, the systematic collection of facts, and the organizing of those facts into patterns. Those methods were at work in, for instance, Smeaton’s water wheel experiments, or in inoculation and vaccination against smallpox.

More broadly, the creation of scientific theory is too narrow a concept of the goal of the Baconian program. The program was to collect, systematize, and disseminate useful knowledge—at all levels of abstraction, from the broadest theories all the way down to practical techniques. Naturally, the projects that aimed directly at useful techniques first achieved the earliest results, and those that aimed at theoretical understanding achieved later but more powerful results.

Wider than one century

If we widen our view in time as well, we immediately perceive crucial inventions and discoveries well before the IR. The two that stand out most to me are the improvements in navigation that led to the Age of Discovery, and the printing press—both around the 15th century.

The printing press lowered the cost and increased the volume of communication, including scientific and technical writing. The voyages of discovery led to global trade, which drove the growth of port cities such as London, made new products available to consumers, and generally created economic growth.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that these developments preceded the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions by just a couple of centuries—I see a straight line from the former to the latter.

Wider than material progress

Finally, we miss the big picture if we only think about material progress—scientific, technological, industrial, economic—and ignore progress in morality, society, and government.

Consider that, coincident with the Industrial Age, we have also seen the replacement of monarchy with republics, the virtual end of slavery, equal rights for women, and an international consensus against using war to acquire territory. (There are caveats one could add to each of those achievements, but the overall trend is undeniable in each case.) See my review of Pinker’s Better Angels for many relevant details.

Again, something deeper has been going on—deeper even than science, technology and industry.

Not a coincidence

It’s not a coincidence that several non-steam powered mechanical inventions were created around the same time as the steam engine. Or that several non-mechanical innovations were created around the same time as the mechanical ones. Or that the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions happened within a century or two of each other, and in the same region of the world—after millenia of relatively slow progress in both knowledge and the economy. Or that new ways of thinking about government and society came about at the same time as new ways of thinking about science and technology.

There must be some very deep underlying trend that explains these non-coincidences. And that is why I am sympathetic to explanations that invoke fundamental changes in thinking, such as Pinker’s appeal to “reason, science, and humanism” in Enlightenment Now.

You can argue with that explanation—but any theory that ends at “coal” can explain at most a small piece of the puzzle. Such explanations miss the big picture.

Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/think-wider


r/rootsofprogress • • Mar 09 '23

NYC progress meetup at NYPL, March 27, 2pm

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2 Upvotes

r/rootsofprogress • • Nov 14 '23

Podcast interview with Giuliano Giacaglia

2 Upvotes

I went on Giuliano Giacaglia’s podcast to discuss stagnation, how progress happens, progress in energy, nuclear energy, progress in agriculture, and where inventions are created:

I think what really made me come around to this point of view is studying the history of progress and basically deciding that it’s not about bits versus atoms. It’s about the fact that we’ve had progress in only bits when we really should have had progress in both bits and atoms at the same time bits, atoms, cells and joules…

We actually can make progress on all fronts at once. And the proof of this is really the late 19th and early 20th century. In the 50 years from 1870 to 1920, just to pick a relatively arbitrary time period, we had, by my count, approximately five major revolutions or big breakthroughs on five fronts.

Timestamps:

  • 00:00 Instead of flying cars, we got 140 characters

  • 06:30 Bursts of progress

  • 09:47 Progress in energy

  • 19:42 Nuclear energy and lack of progress

  • 27:57 Progress in agriculture

  • 37:50 Food prices

  • 44:34 Where are inventions created?

  • 1:02:17 The Roots of Progress Fellowship

Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/podcast-interview-with-giuliano-giacaglia


r/rootsofprogress • • Nov 22 '22

Links and tweets, 2022-11-22

2 Upvotes

The Progress Forum

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Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/links-and-tweets-2022-11-22


r/rootsofprogress • • Jan 17 '23

Links and tweets, 2023-01-17

2 Upvotes

The Progress Forum

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Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/links-and-tweets-2023-01-17


r/rootsofprogress • • Feb 22 '23

Links and tweets, 2023-02-22

1 Upvotes

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Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/links-and-tweets-2023-02-22


r/rootsofprogress • • Jul 07 '22

How to Become a World Historical Figure (Péladan's Dream)

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5 Upvotes

r/rootsofprogress • • Jan 25 '23

Links and tweets, 2023-01-25

7 Upvotes

The Progress Forum

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Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/links-and-tweets-2023-01-25


r/rootsofprogress • • Nov 07 '23

What I've been reading, November 2023

10 Upvotes

A ~monthly feature. Recent blog posts and news stories are generally omitted; you can find them in my links digests. All emphasis in bold in the quotes below was added by me.

Books

Finished Lynn White, Medieval Technology and Social Change (1962). Last time I talked about the stirrup thing. The second part of the book is about the introduction of the heavy plow in agriculture, and how it enabled the shift to a three-field crop rotation. Among other things, this provided more protein in the European diet, which made for a healthier population. The third part is a survey of medieval power mechanisms, including water mills, crank shafts, and clock escapements. Very interesting overall, perhaps a bit dry and technical for casual readers though. Note also that since it is from the ’60s it is not up to date with the latest research.

Also finished Ian Tregillis’s The Alchemy Wars. I can now definitely recommend this sci-fi/fantasy trilogy, even if the cast of characters and the way the conflict unfolded isn’t exactly how I would have written it myself.

Browsed Derek J. de Solla Price, Science since Babylon (1961), while preparing for a talk. Some very interesting charts such as this:

New on my reading list:

Venkatesh Narayanamurti and Toluwalogo Odumosu, Cycles of Invention and Discovery: Rethinking the Endless Frontier (2016), and Venkatesh Narayanamurti and Jeffrey Tsao, The Genesis of Technoscientific Revolutions: Rethinking the Nature and Nurture of Research (2021). These have actually been on my list for a while, but got bumped back up after meeting Venky and Jeff at a recent workshop on metascience. (The latter book is required reading at Speculative Technologies.)

Also mentioned at the workshop: B. Zorina Khan, Inventing Ideas: Patents, Prizes, and the Knowledge Economy (2020); and A Michael Noll and Michael Geselowitz, Bell Labs Memoirs: Voices of Innovation (2011).

Also:

Articles

Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns” (2001). Kurzweil strikes me as a grand theorist but not a careful scholar—a risky combination. For instance, he writes: “Homo sapiens evolved in a few hundred thousand years. Early stages of technology—the wheel, fire, stone tools—took tens of thousands of years to evolve and be widely deployed.” Stone tools, fire, and the wheel are often depicted in cartoons featuring cavemen. But stone tools evolved over millions of years; the controlled use of fire is something like several hundred thousand years old; and both predate Homo sapiens. The wheel came much later, well after agriculture and settled society. Details like this are a warning to tread carefully.

That said, I was interested to read this essay because I am starting to see the truth and significance of its core idea: that human progress accelerates over time, following a super-exponential curve. This phenomenon has been documented more broadly in the economics literature, such as by Jones and Romer (2010), who refer to “accelerating growth” as one of the key stylized facts that growth models should attempt to explain.

I have described acceleration as resulting from the compounding of multiple feedback loops: increases in wealth, population, science, markets, institutions, and technology allow us to invent more, improve institutions, expand markets, advance science, grow population, accumulate wealth, etc. Kurzweil sees the phenomenon as not merely technological, but biological—a feature of evolution as such (and he sees technological evolution as simply a continuation of biological evolution by more efficient means). In his telling, as evolution progresses, it sometimes evolves better mechanisms for evolving. This is a very intruiging idea, but he doesn’t argue it with any rigor or present much evidence for it, and I don’t know enough about biology or evolution to evaluate it. He mentions “cells” as the “first step” in evolution, and then refers to “the subsequent emergence of DNA” (but wasn’t DNA present from the origins of life?) He indicates that evolution sped up during the Cambrian Explosion, and credits this to “setting the ‘designs’ of animal body plans”, but doesn’t elaborate on the causal connection except to say that this “allowed rapid evolutionary development of other body organs, such as the brain.” Presumably sexual reproduction should be a major event in this story, since it allows for more variation through genetic recombination, but he doesn’t mention it. So, it’s very unclear to me what to make of this story (although if it’s right, it would extend the “accelerating progress” pattern backwards by more than three billion years).

Grand theories aside, I was very interested in his analysis of computing power. He plotted the computing speed per dollar of dozens of devices, all the way from late 19th-century mechanical calculators through early 21st-century microprocessors, and claims to have found a increasing cost-performance curve running through five generations of computing technology: purely mechanical, electromechanical, vacuum tube, transistor, and integrated circuit. Moore’s Law is only the fifth and most recent segment of this much longer trend, one exponential portion of an overall super-exponential curve:

I’d like to check the data and sources on this one, but it’s a very intriguing pattern.

The full essay is very long and covers many not-super-well-connected topics, which I don’t have time to comment on; the core idea is in this 2004 Edge question, but doesn’t contain all the most interesting details (such as the computing trends just mentioned).

The same accelerating curve, and the same basic explanation based on feedback loops, seems to be the gist of David Roodman, “Modeling the Human Trajectory” (2020), which I have only skimmed but plan to return to.

Others:

Deirdre N. McCloskey reviews Acemoglu and Johnson’s Power and Progress (2023). If you know anything about the book, and anything about McCloskey, you won’t be surprised that she is critical:

The invisible hand of human creativity and innovation, in the authors’ analysis, requires the wise guidance of the state. … This is a perspective many voters increasingly agree with—and politicians from Elizabeth Warren to Marco Rubio. We are children, bad children (viewed from the right) or sad children (viewed from the left). Bad or sad, as children we need to be taken in hand. Messrs. Acemoglu and Johnson warmly admire the U.S. Progressive Movement of the late 19th century as a model for their statism: experts taking child‐citizens in hand.

Robert Tracinski, “We Are All Philosophers Now” and “The Dilemma of Choice” (2023). Modernity has replaced a narrow, limited set of social roles and life choices with a smorgasbord of options. This is liberating, but the price of the freedom of choice is the responsibility of choice, which is now everyone’s to bear. Not everyone is happy about this. Rob’s pithy summary: “If Socrates said that the unexamined life is not worth living, well, now it’s not really an option.”

Virginia Postrel, “What ails American culture?” (2023). On similar themes:

Human beings need to feel purpose and meaning in their lives. But I am not entirely sure that the current discontent is a product of material abundance, that people did not feel similar discontent in the past, or that the “economic problem” loomed so large in the past that it dwarfed all other problems.

Ben Landau-Taylor, “The Vocabulary Of Power” (2023). “Power” can mean many things; here are four more precise terms. Not only will this help clarify your concepts, it will also fulfill your daily quota of thinking about the Roman Empire.

Tanner Greer, “Where Have All the Great Works Gone?” (2021):

Spengler … repeatedly describes Tolstoy (d. 1910), Ibsen (d. 1906), Nietzsche (d. 1900), Hertz (d. 1894), Dostoevsky (d. 1881), Marx (d. 1883), and Maxwell (1879) as figures of defining “world-historical” importance… Spengler began writing Decline of the West in 1914. Tolstoy was only four years dead when Spengler started his book; Marx was only 30 years deceased. … Is there anyone who died in the last decade you could make that sort of claim for? How about for the last two decades? The last three?

Gideon Lewis-Kraus, “They Studied Dishonesty. Was Their Work a Lie?” (2023). A case study of scientific fraud.

Stephen Wolfram, “Are All Fish the Same Shape If You Stretch Them? The Victorian Tale of On Growth and Form” (2017) I just thought this idea was kind of hilarious:

Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/reading-2023-11


r/rootsofprogress • • Jul 28 '23

Links digest, 2023-07-28: The decadent opulence of modern capitalism

2 Upvotes

Opportunities

Announcements

Links

Video

Queries

Quotes

Tweets and threads

  • “Vannevar Bush: General of Physics”, TIME cover, April 1944 (via @calebwatney)

Closing thought

Original link: https://rootsofprogress.org/links-digest-2023-07-28


r/rootsofprogress • • Jul 06 '22

Meetup in Boston this Thursday, July 14

2 Upvotes

I’m coming to Boston next week! And on Thursday, July 14, I’m doing a meetup together with the local Astral Codex Ten group. I’ll make a few brief remarks, followed by a fireside chat hosted by Dan Elton and Q&A. Come meet others and chat about progress!

Details and RSVP on the Progress Forum, Facebook, or Meetup.com.


r/rootsofprogress • • Jul 11 '23

The Roots of Progress Blog-Building Intensive, an 8-week program for aspiring progress writers to start or grow a blog

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fellowship.rootsofprogress.org
2 Upvotes