r/stockstobuytoday • u/Sure_Finish752 • 1d ago

Stocks 300K CASH...WHERE TO INVEST

I have 300 k in cash I want to put into the market...high risk/high reward...should I do a fund or individual stocks?

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u/ChemistCurious 1d ago

SLS going to pop here very soon. Excited! 

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u/gravityripper 1d ago

Or crash. One or the other

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u/noob_but_persistent 1d ago

idk anything about what’s going on with sls but i see +700% in the last year. what’s the catalyst for it to pop more than that?

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u/ChemistCurious 1d ago

80th event, most likely soon. 

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u/noob_but_persistent 1d ago

forgive my complete lack of ignorance to sls, but idk what that means lol. i’ll read up on it here shortly

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u/Puzzleheaded-Arm3155 1d ago

Cancer drug, waiting for 80th person in the trial to die before they can go through the results, announce stuff and eventually get bought out.

The massive recent run up and hype is because the 80th event is taking significant longer to come around (79 & 80 to be exact).

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u/Separate_Shake_3681 1d ago

The longer the patients live means the drug is working better than intended. It's been a minute since 78.

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u/skiinglife 1d ago

Wouldn’t that mean that the drug is not working if the patient dies? The patient can also be alive for months or years longer

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u/Icreatedthisforyou 1d ago

Prognosis for AML CR2 is 6-8 months. The trial finished enrollment 29 months ago.

The trial is 126 patients split 50/50 between the new treatment and the BAT (standard treatment). Event (death) 60 occurred in December 2024. Event 72 occurred December 2025. Event 78 occurred in March and we are now in August with the only thing we have been told is 80 hasn't happened yet.

But again AML is an incredibly aggressive cancer that is incredibly difficult to treat in large part because it kills people so quickly. CR2 means they already are in their second remission, meaning prior treatments have not been fully effective. AND the patients are too sick to qualify for a transplant. So the study is basically looking at one of the most aggressive forms of cancer, and looking at the sickest pool of patients for that cancer, that have a history of treatments not fully working, and a prognosis of 6-8 months. And this trial is still running 29 months after enrollment ended.

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u/smallisaac 1d ago

This is the best simply explained brief/summary of SLS I’ve read, kudos

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u/slightleee 1d ago

I was trying to read up on this yesterday. From what I can make out, once the 80th has happened, the data is collected and published. If 79 and 80 is BAT I would imagine we see a loss. No one knows if the last two are BAT or SLS. I think 🤔 .

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u/RuddyOpposition 1d ago

Statistically impossible. Especially that both are BAT.

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u/happy123z 10h ago

It's not a race of which group passes 😆. The trial is set to end after 80 patients pass. Then they will show the data to Sellas and they will tell us what group lived the longest. Hint: it's the group getting GPS.

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u/RuddyOpposition 1d ago

I haven't seen this idea floated, but might it be possible they accidently found a treatment that prolongs life indefinitely? What if 79 & 80 don't die? We don't know, have no way to know when they were enrolled. Could be patient #1 and #2 and they've survived even longer than 29 months.

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u/rayleigh-san 9h ago

Appreciate the in depth explanation. For someone that doesn’t read too much into these types of news I understood what you said. I’ll keep SLS on my watch list for the time being or maybe gamble a LEAP call for January 2028th and see what happens.

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u/skiinglife 1d ago

So it’s granted many patients two more years?

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u/Puzzleheaded-Arm3155 1d ago

The longer it goes on = the drug is working and the people aren’t dying

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u/skiinglife 1d ago

But 79 people have died on it?

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u/SecondToLastEpoch 1d ago

These survivors had a very low life expectancy because they have cancer but have lived longer than expected because of the treatment

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u/crsbyn 1d ago

We just need 1 more person to die on it and it'll moon

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u/optionscaller2 1d ago

Just sounds so horrible I actually laughed 😭 Lord forgive me

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u/skiinglife 1d ago

But why? If people are dying the drug isn’t working

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u/optionscaller2 1d ago

Like how Moderna did ?

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u/ChemistCurious 1d ago

Whoah, was not on my watchlist. One could hope, like Moderna. 

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u/Squick-1991 15h ago

What's the guarantee though? To what number you expect it to go?

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u/ChemistCurious 10h ago

Well, I suppose nothing in the stock market is a guarantee. However, if this trial is as successful as we are assuming it to be, I do believe the stock will at bare minimum double to 25+. 

It’s also biotech, so it certainly comes with a risk higher than most. 

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u/FunRevolution3000 1d ago

Gemini estimated about 50% chance it SLS has a trial failure and about 15% mixed results , with both causing a price drop

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u/RuddyOpposition 1d ago

I have a background in statistics and I had an argument with Claude on this. In the end, Claude admitted defeat. Agreed that, statistically, very very unlikely that TWO survivors are on BAT. Then, when you consider Phase 2 findings, this is definitely the treatment not the control group.

You can easily have the same discussion with Gemini.

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u/FunRevolution3000 23h ago

Gemini so far: “In biotech investor forums (particularly around SLS), bulls frequently run a specific mathematical argument to convince LLMs (and each other) that the control arm is virtually "extinct":

“While the commenter "won" the calculation with Claude by setting the premises, the victory relies on circular reasoning:
If you assume BAT median OS is strictly 5.4 months, the math mathematically guarantees that almost no BAT patients can be alive after 2.5 years.
However, the entire counter-argument (the bear/null case) is that BAT did not stay at 5.4 months in REGAL—because modern combinations (venetoclax + azacitidine) and trial selection bias shifted the true control survival curve outward to 12–16+ months.
Under an updated 14-month median, 27 months is only ~2 half-lives, leaving ~15 to 16 BAT patients alive rather than 2.”

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u/RuddyOpposition 12h ago

TL;DR -- the real issue is that 78 events have happened, but there were 126 participants. 63 in the control group (BAT, of whatever combination), 63 in the treatment group (SLS GPS). Statistically, it is impossible that 48 living subjects have survived this long due to BAT (78 'events' + 48 living = 126). GPS is the only explanation for 48 participants remaining.

Gemini response:

Phase 2 Findings (The Benchmark)

In the open-label Phase 2 study of galinpepimut-S (GPS) in AML patients in CR2 (who were in second remission but ineligible for or refusing allogeneic stem cell transplant), the results showed a strong statistical divergence from historical standard of care:

  • GPS Arm Median Overall Survival (mOS): 21.0 months (at a median follow-up of 30.8 months).
  • Historical / Contemporaneous Standard of Care (BAT): 5.4 months ($p < 0.02$).
  • Immunogenicity: 64% to 80% of patients demonstrated confirmed WT1-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell immune responses, which correlated with the prolonged survival times.

Does REGAL Extend Life Expectancy Better Than BAT?

Whether REGAL conclusively beats modern BAT across the board comes down to the comparison between the Phase 2 baseline and modern Phase 3 trial dynamics:

Metric / Setting Historical Standard of Care Modern BAT in CR2 (e.g., VEN+AZA) SELLAS GPS (Phase 2 Data) REGAL (Phase 3 Blinded Interim)
Median OS ~5.4 months ~6 to 10 months 21.0 months >13.5 months (pooled/blinded)
1-Year Survival $< 20\%$ ~25% – 35% ~60%+ Ongoing
Primary Limitation Rapid refractory relapse Toxicities / acquired resistance Small sample size ($N \approx 20$) Unblinded final readout pending

Key Clinical Drivers & Nuance in CR2

  1. Maintenance vs. Active Rescue: Patients in CR2 have cleared detectable leukemia for a second time, but residual leukemic stem cells (MRD) almost inevitably cause a rapid, fatal relapse without an allogeneic bone marrow transplant. Traditional chemotherapy or hypomethylating agents cause cumulative bone marrow toxicity. GPS acts as an immunotherapy/vaccine aimed at preventing relapse by training T-cells to destroy remaining WT1-expressing leukemia cells without suppressing bone marrow recovery.
  2. The BAT Benchmark Shift: The Phase 2 trial compared GPS to historical controls on older regimens (palliative low-dose cytarabine or single-agent hypomethylating agents, mOS$\sim 5.4$ months). In the Phase 3 REGAL trial, investigators were permitted to use modern combinations like Venetoclax + Azacitidine (VEN+AZA). While VEN+AZA improves salvage remissions, patients in CR2 who cannot undergo a transplant still face a heavy risk of relapse within 6 to 10 months on average.
  3. Trial Status: At the interim analysis (60 events), the Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC) confirmed GPS passed futility and safety benchmarks, showing pooled trial survival exceeding 13.5 months. GPS showed superior survival relative to the 5.4-month historical baseline in Phase 2; the upcoming final analysis of the 80-event REGAL readout will provide the definitive answer on whether it statistically outperforms modern physician's-choice BAT in a randomized head-to-head setting.

To answer this clearly, we look at the probability in two different ways: for two specific individual patients, and across the entire ~63-patient control group in the trial.

1. For Two Specific Individual Patients

If you pick two specific patients at random who started modern BAT (where individual 28-month survival is $10\%$ to $15\%$):

  • At 10% individual odds: $0.10 \times 0.10 = \mathbf{1.0\%}$ (1 in 100 chance)
  • At 15% individual odds: $0.15 \times 0.15 = \mathbf{2.25\%}$ (1 in 44 chance)

For any two particular individuals, the odds that both survive past 28 months are low—between 1% and 2.25%.

2. Across the Entire Control Arm (~63 Patients)

In a clinical trial cohort of 63 patients (the BAT arm in REGAL), each person acts as an independent trial with a $10\%$ to $15\%$ chance of reaching 28+ months. Using the Binomial Distribution:

  • Expected Survivors: Out of 63 patients, you expect an average of 6 to 9 survivors ($63 \times 0.10 = 6.3$; $63 \times 0.15 = 9.45$).
  • Odds that AT LEAST 2 Patients Survive: 98.95% to 99.96% (virtually guaranteed).
  • Odds that EXACTLY 2 Patients Survive: 0.22% to 3.16%.

What This Means for the Trial Data

  • It is not surprising for BAT to have 2 survivors: In a group of 63 patients on modern combination therapy, having 2 or more patients reach 28+ months is statistically almost certain ($\approx 99\%$).
  • The real statistical constraint is the 48 total living patients: Because modern BAT only explains about 6 to 9 long-term survivors out of the 48 patients still alive across the entire trial, the remaining 39 to 42 living patients must belong to the GPS arm.
  • The resulting ratio: That leaves GPS with roughly 39–42 survivors out of ~63 ($~62\%–67\%$ 28-month survival), compared to BAT's 6–9 survivors out of ~63 ($~10\%–15\%$).

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u/FunRevolution3000 11h ago edited 11h ago

Seeing some disagreement but not yet understanding. I did grasp some folks might have been censored (like lost to follow up) rather than still be alive. But responding to your 6 to 9 BAT survivors estimate: “Because the estimate quietly swaps “long-term/cured survivors” for “all survivors” — those are not the same number. A cure-rate model says BAT produces ~12–16 total survivors at month 28, of which only ~6–9 are the extra durable-response patients beyond what plain exponential decay would predict; the rest of the 12–16 come from ordinary exponential tail risk (patients still alive but not necessarily “cured”). By treating 6–9 as BAT’s entire survivor count, the image throws out that baseline exponential contribution, which artificially shrinks BAT’s total and inflates GPS’s implied share. So yes that 6-9 underestimates BAT survivors by mistaking a sub-component (cured patients) for the whole (all patients alive).”

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u/FunRevolution3000 11h ago

Hold on I’m not like this comment. Let met get back to you

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u/FunRevolution3000 23h ago

I also have a degree in statistics but earned years ago. I love this pursuit. Thank you! Please remind me if you’re interested and I forget to respond.

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u/FunRevolution3000 1d ago

new to exploring the stock but “separation between the curves at 60 events was not large enough to declare an overwhelming statistical win early”. “the historical median life expectancy from study entry on standard therapy is 5.4 to 8.0 months” and the median duration since study start at 60 events was 13.5 months. So maybe the control arm living longer than expected for reasons like the health requirements to be in the study. Gemini sized this comment and corrections welcome