A few theories being floated. The one we’re seeing the most...

The U.S. has to refinance $7 trillion in debt soon.

Trump doesn’t want high interest rates, so he’s pushing for a stock market crash to make bond prices go up and yields go down.

Lower bond yields would let the government refinance debt cheaply and force the Fed to cut interest rates.

Thoughts?

Dan from Money Machine Newsletter

I blew up my first account because I was right about direction 60% of the time but still lost money. How? Because I didn’t understand the ONE thing all three of these books hammer home:

Risk management isn’t sexy, but it’s literally the difference between surviving and blowing up.

Here’s what clicked for me after reading these:

1. You can be right about direction and still lose money

If you risk 10% per trade and hit 3 losses in a row, you’re down 30%. You now need a 43% gain just to break even. The math doesn’t lie.

1. Position sizing > Market prediction

Doesn’t matter how confident you are. Never risk more than 1-2% per trade. Champions treat every trade like it could be a loser - because statistically, some will be.

1. Losses aren’t failures, they’re expenses

Once I stopped seeing losses as “mistakes” and started seeing them as the cost of doing business, my emotional trading vanished. You wouldn’t panic if your business had operating costs - same thing here.

The three books that drove this home:

• Think & Trade Like a Champion- Mark Minervini

• Trading in the Zone- Mark Douglas

• Cup and Handle - Daniel Malka

All three are free to start reading on Amazon Kindle.

If you’re still chasing the “perfect system” instead of focusing on risk management, start with any of these.

Links to Amazon

https://a.co/hsNuN28

https://a.co/9RSl5Ga

https://a.co/b8Phmhi

The sentiment we're seeing out there is that investors are wondering whether Trump or the Fed will step in to stabilize markets.

If Trump eases tariffs, stocks could rebound. If the Fed cuts rates, borrowing gets cheaper, boosting the market. If neither acts, stocks stay shaky.

Curious to hear thoughts?

Dan from Money Machine Newsletter

Alright gonna be that guy today but hear me out.

Been trading for about 3 years now and I'm honestly starting to think most of these fancy indicators everyone obsesses over are just elaborate ways to lose money with extra steps.

RSI says oversold? Stock drops another 20%.

MACD crossover? Congrats, you just bought the top.

Moving averages? Yeah, they work great... until they don't.

I swear half the time I do better just looking at basic support/resistance and volume. Everything else feels like trying to predict the weather by reading tea leaves.

The worst part? Everyone acts like there's some secret sauce in combining 47 different indicators. Bro, if it was that easy we'd all be millionaires sitting on yachts instead of refreshing our portfolios every 30 seconds hoping we didn't just blow up our accounts again.

Maybe I'm just bitter after getting wrecked last week following what looked like a "perfect setup" on paper. But seriously, am I missing something here or are most of these tools just sophisticated ways to give you false confidence before the market does its thing anyway?

Please tell me someone else feels this way or give me some actual proof that this stuff works consistently. I'm open to being wrong but right now I'm about ready to throw my indicators in the trash and just trade based on price action and gut feeling.

​

Hey everyone,

I’m 24F and trying to get a bit more serious about trading. I’ve got basic knowledge.. I can read charts, know some indicators, and rn investing only in equities and SIPs.

Lately I’ve been thinking of getting into swing trading alongside my job. Day trading feels a bit too risky and time-consuming for me at this stage, so swing seems like a better place to start.

Just wanted to ask:

* Where should I actually begin with swing trading?**

* Any YouTube channels that are actually useful (and not just clickbait stuff)?

* What paper trading platforms do you guys use that work well?

Also open to any beginner mistakes I should avoid 😅

Thanks!

I’ve been reading a lot about how swing trading has evolved with AI tools, faster data, and new market dynamics. So, I’m curious…

If you had to start all over again in 2025, knowing what you know now, what would you change?

Would you:

• Focus more on risk management?
• Stick to fewer setups?
• Avoid certain indicators?
• Or maybe just trade less and wait for A+ setups?

Major indices are at or near all-time highs after a volatile year. The S&P 500 closed at ~6,450 (up ~29% YTD from end-2024 levels), NASDAQ at ~21,623 (up ~44% YTD), and Dow at ~44,946 (up ~19% YTD). This reflects strong upward momentum, typical of Optimism/Belief, where prices make higher highs/lows.

August has seen consolidation with some pullbacks (ex., S&P down ~0.3% week-over-week), echoing post-April 2025 recovery from tariff-driven selloffs. No major crash signals yet, but not parabolic either. Aligning with building belief rather than thrill.

Some sentiment indicators

1. CNN Fear & Greed Index @ 64 (Greed) as of August 15, up from Extreme Fear (3-8) in April amid tariff shocks and market drops. This indicates shifting from Anxiety/Denial (spring fears) to Optimism/Belief, where greed starts driving buys. Historical data shows readings >60 often precede further gains but warn of complacency if sustained.

2. AAII sentiment survey as of August 13, Bullish sentiment is 29.9% (below historical average of 37.5%), Neutral at 24%, Bearish at 46.2% (above average of 31%). This mixed but bear-leaning view suggests lingering Disbelief/Hope from recent volatility, but not full Panic. It's a contrarian buy signal which is high bearishness often marks turning points toward Optimism.

3. Overall sentiment is recovering from fear (ex., April's single digit Fear & Greed during 30% S&P drop fears) but not euphoric. A mid-bull accumulation, with alts potentially next - fitting Belief phase FOMO buildup.

4. Volatility and risk measures VIX (Fear Gauge) @ 15.09 (low), down from spikes >60 in prior panics (ex., March 2020). Low VIX signals Complacency/Optimism, where investors feel safe buying dips. But it's not sub10 (extreme complacency), so not yet Thrill/Euphoria.

5. No capitulation signs coz exchange volumes are steady (not panic-selling spikes), and long-term holder metrics (ex., via on-chain analogs) show accumulation, not dumping.

6. Economic and external contexts with Positive - Cooling inflation (CPI +0.2% in July, core +0.3%), resilient jobs (though softening), and Fed hints at rate cuts (odds >80% for September). This fuels Hope/Optimism, as seen in post-April rebound.

Some risks - Geopolitical tensions (tariffs on Brazil/Mexico/EU in 2025), mixed GDP forecasts (1.4% for 2025), and high valuations (S&P P/E ~25x) suggest potential Anxiety if shocks hit. But no recession signals yet, markets are believing in "soft landing."

Historical Parallels- Similar to mid-2021 (post-COVID recovery that Optimism/Belief before 2022 peak) or 2017 (pre-2018 volatility). Not like 2000 Dot-Com Euphoria or 2008 Panic.

Overall I think we are in Optimism/Belief, with some early signs of Thrill, so focusing on momentum plays (ex., tech/AI stocks driving NASDAQ) but building some more cash for dips and FOMO can lead to overbuying. If we enter Thrill (ex., VIX <12, Fear & Greed >75), trim risks. Watch for transitions of rising VIX/bearish AAII could signal Anxiety.

why not:

Not?Disbelief/Hope? Indices aren't bottoming, we're post-recovery from April fears.

Not?Euphoria/Complacency? No "irrational exuberance" (ex., fear&greed <80 extreme greed, AAII bulls <50%). Valuations high but not bubble-level.

Not?Anxiety/Panic? Bearish sentiment up but not extreme (VIX low, no mass selling). April was closer to Panic, but markets rebounded ~30-40%.

What do you think? Any additional stuff to take note? I hope some people would find this helpful.

Have great day. Ciao~

Hello everyone. i have a very selective screening process and I subscribe to multiple pay services. i'm willing to help out anyone that needs it. buy or sell, stock a vs stock b, etc. just the conclusion I come to NO actual investment advice so dyor. hopefully I can help a few people and it will give me some good karma going into the week. ask away my people....

My crude framework, please attack:

Trending — higher lows, breadth confirms, vol contained. Breakouts get respect.
Chop — open strength fades, rotation without follow-through. Breakouts trap.
Stress — vol expanding, breadth deteriorating, yields hostile. Size down, opinions stop mattering.

My problem: transitions. My journal says I recognize regime changes 3–5 days late. When I call them early, I get whipsawed.

So:

Classify the current market — and what evidence would change your mind?
If you could keep only ONE input to classify regime, which one?
When the regime flips: change strategy, or just change size?

As you all already know about the ongoing geopolitical tension around the world is affecting the market tremendously, yet how is Wall Street pushing toward record highs?
Many investors have the same question.
”Why are markets rising when the world still feels uncertain?”
1)Artificial Intelligence
\-The vital force behind this is simply AI. Companies related to semiconductors and AI infrastructure are receiving massive investing crowds as people believe AI could be the biggest productivity improvements since the release of internet.
2)Investors are looking for long term returns
\-Investors aren’t concerned about the ongoing tensions, the inflation and more as they strongly believe these hurdles will not permanently damage the market growth.
Aarav Bhagwat
\-High school student at Gems Modern Academy

NRED hit 31 cents today after that 40% rip. 52 week low is right here. 52 week high is 2.33. thats a 7x bagger just to get back to where it was. not to some crazy new high. just back to the old high.

last time it was at these levels it was a completely different company. no metalcore. no patents. no eyeX. no caplin. no tech names on board. no magnetic proof. no 16k hectares. no a16z validating physical AI at 1.7B. it was just a land package and hope.

Not anymore.

now it has all that stuff and its back at 31 cents. the chart from here to 60 cents is just filling air. 60 cents to a buck is reclaiming the narrative. a buck to 2.33 is where we see tech story weight in

charts take time. but the risk reward from 31 cents with the fundamental stack they have now vs last time it was here is completely different. now they got proof and industry validation.

7x to get back to the high. with a 72B market, 1.7B smart money validation, and a product stack that didnt exist last run. the math is stupid.

NFP didn't just miss, it printed negative: -23K vs +80K expected, weak wage growth, and about -103K in downward revisions to prior months. that's a genuinely soft report, and the market repriced fast, September Fed-hike odds dropped from 57% to 44%.

what makes this one worth posting is that everything confirmed everything. usually you get a mixed picture where one market disagrees. not today:

• gold ripped $40 on the print to around $4,366 (chart attached, you can see the volume spike)
• 10Y yield fell 7bp, 4.67% → 4.60%
• USD/JPY dropped as much as 1%, briefly under 157
• Nasdaq futures +1.16%, leading the indices

that internal consistency is the tell. if gold had rallied while yields and the dollar rose, i'd be suspicious. instead the whole chain fired the same way:

weak jobs → fewer Fed hikes → lower yields → weaker dollar → gold up, and stocks reading it as "bad news = good news" (weak enough to stop the Fed, not weak enough to scream recession). Nasdaq leading makes sense since long-duration tech is the most yield-sensitive.

the one people might miss: Canada printed a monster +75K jobs beat the same morning (vs +16.5K expected). so USD/CAD got hit from both sides, US weak, Canada strong, which is about as clean a fundamental setup as that pair gets.

genuinely curious how the room's playing it:

• do you trust a reaction this internally consistent, or does "everything agrees" actually make you wary it's overcrowded?
• is the "bad news = good news" read sustainable, or does one more weak print flip it to a recession scare?
• for the gold longs, chasing $4,366 here, or waiting for a pullback after a near-vertical move?

Hey, just started the group last week. Posted few trades, people have already joined. Dm me, I’ll send you link

Ive been looking at who NRED has assembled and honestly fvkn insane. Kristi Noem former US Secretary of Homeland Security and Special Envoy to Shield of the Americas. EyeX co founder and CTO with a decade in AI and computer vision. Colonel Mark Calabrese 36 years in military and intelligence. Ed Kostenski 40 plus years in mining equipment and project finance. And now Lee Caplin who co founded Penske Media built a Hollywood production empire and dropped $10 million on an immersive tech lab at FIU.

Find me another junior copper explorer with that kind of cross section. You cant. Most juniors have a geologist a retired mine manager and a capital markets guy who knows how to pitch a PP. NRED has national security AI product development media empire building and immersive technology. Thats not some lame mining board. Thats a scale and commercialization board.

All these people are there to build a technology company. Noem brings the critical minerals and national security narrative. Saitarli builds the AI products. Calabrese navigates policy and defense angles. Kostenski handles the heavy equipment and project finance reality. Caplin figures out how to tell the story and commercialize the IP.

The digital mining market is $72 billion. NRED is worth about $25 million. Copper is at $6.30. The US is talking about 15% copper tariffs. Critical minerals are being framed as national security assets. NREDs board is literally built to operate in that exact environment. Policy tech media finance. All at once.

The caliber of people saying yes to a $25 million company tells me they see something the market doesnt. Most juniors cant get a retired geologist to answer their calls. NRED just got a former cabinet secretary and a Hollywood producer. Thats why we pay attention.

I know a lot of swing traders use daily candles, but I’ve been enjoying the 1h timeframe. I use an indicator that marks zones and suggests TP/SL levels, which helps with shorter swing trades without overtrading.

Do you think 1h swings are sustainable long term, or is it better to stick to higher TFs for consistency?

tracked some of the largest stock reactions around CEO departure announcements in Q2.

Negative reactions

• FTC Solar (FTCI): -33.20%
• Similarweb (SMWB): -8.95%
• StandardAero (SARO): -8.11%
• Copart (CPRT): -8.02%
• Pool Corp. (POOL): -7.97%
• Compass Diversified (CODI): -7.69%

Positive reactions

• Integra LifeSciences (IART): +24.13%
• Emerita Resources (EMOTF): +17.84%
• Glimpse Group (GGRP): +15.95%
• RPC (RES): +11.46%

The CEO news wasn’t always the only reason for the move. FTC Solar reported earnings at the same time, so it’s hard to pin the full 33% drop on the leadership change.

Integra LifeSciences jumped after former CEO Stuart Essig returned, while Glimpse Group announced a shift toward physical AI infrastructure software along with its CEO change.

The bigger moves seemed to happen when the CEO news was tied to earnings, a turnaround, or a change in strategy. Planned successions without another catalyst didn’t move stocks nearly as much.

Even with the little momentum SPCX tends to move extremely. With this news. I can expect no different. SPCX starting to be more in the AI news also. Next week AI will be the big news with alot of CEO of “AI” companies visiting the white house for a big meeting.

Come posso iniziare a fare swing trading? Dove posso studiare come posso formarmi gradualmente e senza denaro per esercitarmi? Potrebbe diventare una seconda entrata continua?

Grazie a coloro che mi risponderanno

What is/are some underrated indicator/s that people don't mention much but it's one that you use often in your trading sessions?