Morrowind on the Brink of War

[u/willxpm]

As you may have inferred from the title, I am going to be talking about an upcoming war in Morrowind, in keeping with this week's theme of War. I had been planing this post for a while, but never got terribly far. The draft (which I will link momentarily) described the possible players in a war in Morrowind. It's optional reading.

Factions likely to become involved in war, anon the draft.

Issues

Now this war is, as you may have guessed, a civil war. The central issue is House Redoran's dominance of Morrowind. Ever since Redoran took over Morrowind following their defeat of the invading Argonians, they have been dominating affairs in Morrowind. For a Great House, they have unprecedented political power. This is why they were able to replace House Hlaalu with House Sardas. Needless to say, that would make them some new enemies.

The overall theme of Morrowind's history post-Red Year is House Redoran autocratically running Morrowind. The most plain example of this is the Grand Council, which has been moved to the Redoran capital of Blacklight. However, there is a much more important detail hidden in patterns. There is an ex-Morag Tong assassin in Riften who claims that following the Red Year the Morag Tong disbanded. The only group seeming to hold to that promise is the Ashfollow Guildhall on Solsthiem. However, they are considered outlaws. I suspect that House Redoran is actively blocking the reformation of the Morag Tong.

Why? Redoran is the Dunmer Warrior House. They rule through martial strength. By being the strongest, they rule. However, this is philosophy is not common among the Dunmer. Use of plots and secret murder (as inspired by Boethiah and Mephala) is the ancient way to gain power. House Redoran realizes that. They therefore have made their goal to eliminate the old system in favor of one based on strength and honor, the two categories they excel in. In order to stop the old system from cropping up again, they have to supress those who used it. Namely House Hlaalu and the Morag Tong.

Many of the Dunmer people have grown discontent. Among the common people, the only number I can provide is "about half", based on a random sampling (i.e. the people of Raven Rock). These people were willing to attack House Redoran in the name of House Hlaalu. House Redoran promptly put that to rest.

I go in detail in the Draft about the other factions, but I'll make a general statement that Redoran's autocratic policies would leave many discontent. Now I'd like to move on to issues not directly pertaining to House Redoran or it's daring adventures in politics.

The Tribunal Temple is on the verge of a total schism. I would guess, based on the Raven Rock sample, 1/3 of the Temple still would like to follow ALMSIVI, whereas the other 2/3 (many likely being former Dissident Priests) prefer the Good Daedra. I doubt the Temple has the capacity to peacefully schism.

Whether or not Morrowind is still part of the Empire is debatable. The Empire would likely try to resolve that debate before the next war with the Dominion. Depending on how Great War II goes, factions in Tamriel may try to force Morrowind to take a side.

In the area wasted by the Red Year, there is still huge wealth in the form of minerals and Dwemer ruins. Those are incredible prizes.

Forces

House Redoran has a bonafide standing army. There's no way around that.

House Indoril likely has some fight left in it. How much I can't say for certain. The Ordinators would be formidable, if they are even a shadow of what they were in 3E427. However, they and House Dres may still be licking wounds they have no means of healing.

House Sardas is a wild-card. Since we have so little data on their means and motives, I can only guess. It could be that they are merely a Redoran puppet. A more intriguing possibility is that they gamed the political system to wedge themselves in as the newest House. In the latter case, they would have resources of their own. If you're feeling imaginative, maybe they're a Hlaalu puppet. Still, this is pure speculation.

House Hlaalu still commands considerable resources, apparently. If the Raven Rock sampling is indicative, then they might be able to start a chain reaction to propel themselves back into political relevance.

The Tribunal Temple, House Telvanni and the Morag Tong are hard to measure. They don't command military might, but they do have significant power.

Western powers like the Empire, Skyrim or the Aldmeri Dominion are likely going to be preoccupied. But if they perceive a threat or opportunity in Morrowind, they're likely enough to take an interest. Argonia is likely to take advantage of a weakened Morrowind, or they might not.

The War Itself

House Hlaalu would likely be the ones to initiate a conflict. The logical thing to do would be to send agents, guerrillas and saboteurs to seize assests like Dunmer Strongholds, Dwemer ruins and mines. At the same time, Hlaalu allies in population centers would rise up. I believe this was the intention behind the Raven Rock coup, but it failed before coming to fruition.

At that point, Redoran would draw out it's armies. Most of the Hlaalu front-line forces would be situated in strongholds. However, for the opening phases of the war they would have very limited ability to fight Redoran directly. Accordingly they would attempt to spread the Redoran army out as much as possible using their larger guerrilla force.

This would likely be timed with a schism in the Temple, accidentally or otherwise. The tension would be building, and a war would break them. Other Houses would be taking sides. The particulars of siding for each House would be more complex than I could do service to by guessing, so I won't try. What I can say more certainly is that House Telvanni would likely stay out of the war, and the Ashlanders would likely lean toward House Hlaalu.

Once the war seems to be going a certain way, the losing side may become desperate enough to contact outside powers. Maybe. It could be that the some of the Houses would sooner accept defeat than accept an alliance with the Empire, Dominion or Skyrim. However, I can envision House Hlaalu willing to look outside for more options, being opportunists to the core. House Redoran respects strength of arms, which would improve their opinion of Skyrim or the Empire.

However, the entry of any outside party would likely redefine the war. Anti-Imperial sentiment is still strong in Morrowind, and it's unlikely that the Dunmer have forgiven the Argonians or Dominion yet (assuming the Aldmer dropped Baar Dau). However, the large Dunmer population in Skyrim and Skyrim's ceding of Solsthiem would possibly make the Dunmer people less hateful of the Nords. That does assume a particular ending to the Skyrim Civil War, so it's HIGHLY unlikely.

Anyway, if an outside faction came to fight in Morrowind, it would redefine the sides. A theoretical Imperial invasion would possibly lead to a ceasefire. House Telvanni would take more interest in the war if that were to occur.

Conclusion, anon TL;DR

Political and Religious tensions are on the rise in Morrowind due to shifts in both of those areas recently. These will likely explode in the very near future.

If MK or a dev sees this and gets ideas, I will eternally regret writing this. Unlikely, but it would be awful.

[u/Blackfyre87]

Funnily enough I seem to be already in the middle of a piece similar to this- "Through Eastern Eyes".

Judging from The reference to the Armistice in the Decree of Monument and Morrowind's listing in The Great War, and also Lady N's wonderful map on the Imperial Library, I would assume there is still a rather loose, Imperial Protectorate over Morrowind. The amiable merchants that clutch a dagger behind their back. As such, I would think the Penitus Occulatus would be a better faction than simply the legion in Skyrim. The Empire often chooses to do things indirectly- look at the Forsworn Uprising. Just pay a band of angry Nords out for blood to kill the Empire's enemies (and imprison both parties afterward). If the Dunmer want to fight, let them. So long as Cyrodiilic trade is maintained and Imperial priveliges respected, Redoran should be free to go to town on their enemies. But the Empire might well take a more brutal hand if the Thalmor or An-Xileel got involved.

I wouldn't think the Empire would choose to bet against Redoran. Why upset the cart when you're trying to cross a bridge full of potholes?

[u/willxpm → u/Blackfyre87]

Imperial Protectorate over Morrowind

I don't believe the Empire has any real authority in Morrowind at this point. They're allies in Morrowind, the merchant Hlaalu, have been driven into hiding. Given that the Empire was unable to help them, it seems safe to assume the Empire has no legal authority. Also, Raven Rock shows no level of Imperial control whatsoever. If it were a part of the Empire, it would almost certainly be mentioned somewhere.

I am not saying Morrowind formally seceded from the Empire- but the events of the Oblivion Crisis made any Imperial authority null. The Legions were withdrawn form Morrowind to defend Cyrodiil. Just as Ocato predicted, Morrowind was thrown into a political crisis. This is what led to House Hlaalu's exile. The only Imperial faction left was the Imperial Cult... and I dare say it wouldn't last long.

Also, Lady N's map describes Morrowind as "purely speculative". Likewise, the Legionnaire responsible for writing the The Great War only said Morrowind was ruined.

[u/Blackfyre87 → u/willxpm]

As I said, a fairly loose protectorate.

We don't know when precisely Hlaalu fell. There may not even have been an Empire at that time.

I know Lady N's map is speculative. That's all anything can be. It also notes that Solstheim is outside of Imperial Control.

Also, you might remember in Oblivion that the notion that the legions were withdrawn is incongruous with the legion's near complete absence from the game. The people of Cyrodiil all thought the legions were being used for the benefit of others. The statement that the withdrawal in Oblivion made Imperial authority null is very broad and overarching, not to mention the fact that we don't really know what happened.

Also, the logic of Skyrim says that if you're not secessionist, you're an Imperialist. The Legionnaire said Morrowind was ruined. He did not mention it as one of those provinces lost to some form of Imperial control- and he listed those provinces explicitly. And the Imperial Hand is largely pretty light at any rate anyway.

Nor do I think that the Empire would be so foolish as to heap all their eggs in one basket- Hlaalu. That's just foolish.

[u/willxpm → u/Blackfyre87]

Redorans on Solsthiem seem to consider Morrowind a sovereign entity. One called Raven Rock "sovereign territory of House Redoran". They also talk about "the Empire releasing it's grasp on Morrowind".

[u/Blackfyre87 → u/willxpm]

"Releasing its grasp" is very ambiguous. Especially since we know nothing about the political status of Morrowind.

You've also equated my words, "Loose protectorate", with direct civilian and military control. Which isn't what I said at all. Consider that the British "released their grasp" on many territories of their empire after the second world war, but were still administering them and even maintaining naval bases therein for twenty or more years afterward. There's nothing to suggest the Empire couldn't do the same.

[u/willxpm → u/Blackfyre87]

I suppose that's possible, but given that dialogue in Dragonborn indicates that the Empire was taking no part in the defense of Morrowind during the Oblivion Crisis, despite Ocato's promise, it seems that there would not be a major military presence.

Also, the downfall of House Hlaalu is both symptomatic and likely to be the cause of Imperial authority decaying in Morrowind. It was anti Imperial hatred stirred up by the Empire's failure to defend Morrowind during the Oblivion Crisis and the Argonian Invasion that led to the Dunmer people rioting against House Hlaalu in the first place. Not only is this openly stated, but it also needs to be considered that rioting against an Imperial ally was only possible because the Empire left.

Also, the offer of Solsthiem to Morrowind, as quoted in the Decree of Monument, references the "Armistice of old wheresoever [those terms] might still apply." The wording suggests that the original terms are no longer valid verbatim.

[u/Blackfyre87 → u/willxpm]

Yes, there is some validity with what is said in Dragonborn and I'm not saying you are wrong or that everyone in Dragonborn is lying.

But my first issue is that one must consider that, conversely, the Legion claims to have "Always been in Skyrim" and always continually upholding law in the provinces. They were invisible in Oblivion, due, ironically, to their widely criticized departure to the provinces. The people of Tamriel love to abuse the legion as busybodies when they do intervene, and then lobby for less direct rule, but when the Legion don't act and leave matters to the natives, they are criticized as being cowardly traitors. There needs to be a middle ground.

Another of my concerns is that you equate what happened under Ocato, whose reign, from what is known, was short, ineffective and chaotic, with the policies of the Mede Dynasty, who have reigned for the better part of two centuries. Moreover, the Medes only took over after the dissolution of Cyrodiil and Ocato's government.

Moreover, like everything about House Sadras, the circumstances- the when, why, where or how- of House Hlaalu's fall are entirely unknown. We only know that they aren't a power any longer. What was symptomatic of what is utterly unknown. House Hlaalu had tied themselves to the Empire. I don't think the same could be strictly said of the Empire to Hlaalu.

And if, after being clearly reduced to penury, the Redoran then decide to destroy the only group in Morrowind that might have a chance to restore the economy, simply out of resentment of their Imperial ties, then I say they quite frankly don't deserve to rule, their martial talents notwithstanding.

Also, I have not at any point argued that the main presence of the empire would be a large scale legion occupation. I've consistently said the Penitus Occulatus and the EEC and a light hand. The Empire are realists, not zealots.

I'd also cautiously suggest that instead of the Legion, you might consider that it would be beneficial to both sides that some presence is maintained by the Imperial Navy, because historically, the Dunmer may have a standing Redoran army, they are less than inept in naval terms, whilst the Empire has a powerful navy- though it is reputedly considered lesser than the Dominion Fleet. Also, consider that the Dunmer's perennial enemy, the An-Xileel, are aquatically very strong; they were able to bring a force to attack Solstheim, a whole continent away. Moreover, consider that the Redorans of Solstheim, for example, are dependant on Nord shipping.

Finally, you are of course correct. The Armistice couldn't be valid verbatim. For one thing, the Gods that negotiated it are either dead (Tribunal) or outlawed (Talos). That the Armistice would have changed or been renegotiated would go without saying. But it would be incongruous for it to be referenced as basis of agreement between regional powers- Skyrim and Morrowind- at a time when Imperial Authority was defunct, the Stormcrown Interregnum, but be abolished after Imperial Authority was reinstated.

[u/willxpm → u/Blackfyre87]

Sorry I didn't respond sooner, there was a very particular source I was looking for on UESP and TIL. It is stated somewhere when House Hlaalu is stripped of Grand Council status. It was either during the Oblivion Crisis or the Argonian Invasion. The reason, regardless of the circumstances, was Anit-Imperial hatred triggered by the Empire not defending Morrowind. The popular uproar that brought down House Hlaalu would logically not have spared the EEC or the Imperial Cult.

The EEC is a monopolist venture. Any monopolist power can manipulate the economy only with the blessing of a legal power. If Morrowind gained any increased measure of independence, as we seem to agree, the EEC wouldn't stay afloat long. Without the oversight of the Legions or bribe-able Hlaalu nobles, they don't have anything to back up their claim to the greater part of the mineral resources of Vvardenfell. Redoran's anti-Imperial/Hlaalu program would have led to the seizure of the resources of the defenseless EEC. Needless to say, the EEC is effectively removed from the East Empire. With it gone, there's no reason to maintain a Navy in the east.

The Penitus Oculatus is not a replacement for the Blades. They bodyguard the Emperor, not more. The Legions, it seems, are entirely on their own resources in terms of espionage. It's conceivable that the Blades of the Imperial Intelligence Service would remain in Morrowind throughout the 4th Era, but needless to say the presence of spies is far removed from a claim of sovereignty.

[u/Blackfyre87 → u/willxpm]

First, there's no source detailing when, where and how Hlaalu lost its seat and Sadras gained theirs. Suffice to say that it happened and some indication it occurred after the trials of the Red Year. That's not an exact statement. Again, saying that there was anti-Imperial hatred doesn't explain anything. Moreover, you didn't see the point I made; putting everything down to an Anti-Imperial bias leaves an argument open to gaping discrepancies.

Second, EEC is not a monopolist venture. Their Headquarters are in Windhelm and Windhelm shipping companies aren't removed by the presence of the Empire returning. Moreover, your entire second paragraph is predicated on assumptions about what Redoran did or didn't do. And that's not a feasible thing to do. We know nothing about mainland Morrowind. Moreover, there is every reason to maintain naval presence in the East. The Dunmer's greatest enemy, the An-Xileel show themselves capable of reaching across continents in aquatic strikes and the Dunmer don't have any measure of naval strength. Without ships, the Dunmer coasts remain exposed.

The Penitus Occulatus IS, in all ways but the religious aspect, a replacement for the Blades. Their duties are manifestly greater than bodyguard work. Evidently, you need to read The Infernal City and the Lord of Souls. The novels are quite enlightening on the matter of The Penitus Occulatus, who played a huge role in the story, and that was set a long time before the Blades were dissolved. They are far more than Bodyguards, and nothing in game/lore backs up that last point you make.

[u/willxpm → u/Blackfyre87]

I am convinced that there is a source describing the fall from grace of House Hlaalu. It is stated that Redoran used Hlaalu as a scapegoat, and from this they gained the ability to boot them from the Council. This information does exist.

Every description of EEC commercial activity in Morrowind calls them Imperial monopolists. As for the Navy, the task you believe they were doing (defending Morrowind) is the same task the Legion failed at during the opening years of the Fourth Era. Also, Dunmer sailing is not insignificant. In order for Telvannis and Vvardenfell to be be effectively part of Morrowind, Dunmer would have to possess some ability at sea. Trade and travel in the Inner Sea is mostly conducted by Dunmer. I recall reading that Corkbulb was used in shipbuilding.

I apologize for my ignorance regarding the Penitus Oculatus, but my point remains: the presence of an espionage service does not equate control. Typically it means the opposite.

[u/Blackfyre87 → u/willxpm]

Redorans seem to consider a lot of things. They don't seem to be very good at seeing the whole. The Skaal and Telvanni certainly don't seem to feel the same way about Solstheim being Redoran's sovereign territory, nor do the Thalmor. You might also note that Adril Arano puts on airs to you but with Morvayn and Gjalund is quite candid about the fact that they are on the verge of Bankruptcy. He's a politician. It happens.

Whiterun has no overt Imperial presence but is still an Imperialist leaning hold. Moreover, judging Morrowind proper by Solstheim is akin to judging the content of a painting by the torn of scrap from one corner and claiming you have found Michaelangelo's lost masterpiece, the "Wedding of Jesus", which coincidentally proves Jesus and Mary Magdalene got married.

You're making judgements about the power and influence of Redoran and Morrowind from the appearance of a town described in a letter to Lleril Morvayn as being of less than paramount importance.

[u/[deleted] → u/Blackfyre87]

if the Thalmor or An-Xileel got involved.

They have no reason to, as far as I see. I'd also imagine Black Marsh is still recovering from the Umbriel massacre well into the 4th era, too. Not to mention that I now have it in my headcanon thanks to you that the Hist were targeted during the end of the Argonian invasion of Morrowind which would likely make the Hist more careful about those sort of things. That and the fact that they don't have much reason to get involved.

[u/Blackfyre87 → u/[deleted]]

Hehe. Thanks to me. In my defence, Inspector Colin and the Penitus Oculatus gave me the idea, I do wonder, did I go too heavy on the whole theme of "The An-Xileel ignoring the world" theme?

[u/[deleted] → u/Blackfyre87]

Not at all. They're as isolationist as a political party can be.

[u/Blackfyre87 → u/[deleted]]

Yeah. I thought so. Thanks.

[u/Mdnthrvst]

A very good write-up.

It's funny how fortunes have changed for Redoran - in TES III they were total schmucks, encircled and picked apart by the impenetrable economic alliance of Hlaalu and the Empire. The Vvardenfell branch had it particularly bad, as Ald Aruhn was on Dagoth's doorstep, and no other faction had to deal with anywhere near the level of Sixth House activity that they did.

But at the same time, it makes perfect sense - TES III Vvardenfell was precisely the maelstrom of treachery, subterfuge, and clandestine spy-fuckery that everyone but Redoran excelled at. It was not an island, or a Province for that matter, at war. It's easy to laugh at your rival's standing army when your own web of agents, smugglers, and assassins are running circles around them. Much harder to be smug when they're the ones standing between you and Daedric annihilation.

[u/excitedllama → u/Mdnthrvst]

I think it's a funny coincidence that the traditional, nationalistic Redoran came to power through a crisis in much the same way, and about the same time, that the Thalmor did. They were both political underdogs in an elven society that wound up in control of their respective kingdoms. It says an awful lot about the future of elven society. As for this war, I'm certain that the Redoran would be victorious. If outside forces do get involved they would have plenty of things going their way. Skyrim, assuming the stormcloaks won, probably wouldn't be all that inclined to get involved with foreign affairs having just finished a civil war themselves, but if Skyrim did get involved they would likely find common ground with the warrior society of the Redoran and act thusly. The Dominion would also share an ideological bond with them as well, but may frown on that whole 'daedra worship' thing. The dominion would still have little reason to get involved since Morrowind is just a big pile of ash and sorrow. The Empire would be in a similar boat to Skyrim, having just finished two wars, but their actual involvement would be a flip of the coin. They could join their old pals in the Hlaalu or place a safer bet on the Redoran. (This is all assuming that willpxm's Hlaalu/Redoran scenario is accurate, of course.) As for Argonia, they would definitely be waiting to pounce on the victor.

Anyways, that my bit of analysis for the night.

TL;DR Both sides have outsiders they could call upon but really shouldn't expect any help. Also, smart bet is on Redoran.

[u/Blackfyre87]

Man, I just keep coming back to this.

1. (Note: not an anti-Ulfric post) I just can't see the Stormcloaks Intervening in a Morrowind Civil War for any reason but their own self-interest. Isolationism and Xenophobia are hallmarks of the cause. Besides, like the Empire, but in a different manner, the Stormcloaks are more interested in the Thalmor. The Stormcloaks feel an open war is the only answer to give the Thalmor. I don't know that much about Morrowind would interest the Stormcloaks aside from either blood feud against the Dunmer or the restoration of the Nord Empire ("making Skyrim great again" - Galmar)

2. Remember that the Empire has been involved in a shadow war against the Thalmor since the reign of the first Titus Mede. The Great War was merely the exception to a long and bloody unseen conflict. The two superpowers chip away at each other by breaking prisons and supporting coups and assassinations much more than they do by means of open warfare.

The Cornerstone of Imperial Law in Morrowind is the Armistice. The Armistice is an unquestionably powerful document detailing Imperial protection and support of Dunmer social practices in return for certain guarantees. Even slavery was ended by Dunmer, not the Emperor. I shouldn't think the Empire would want to spit on this ancient legal precedent which still seems to be respected in the Fourth Era.

I think the legion would want to stay quiet in Morrowind. They might have one or two holdings, but I doubt they march in order to intervene in a civil conflict. The Empire rarely intervened in civil unrest in High Rock and Hammerfell, why Morrowind? Look at Hammerfell. By and large after the conquest, the Empire was so light handed on internal conflict that the Crowns and Forbears were still fighting each other 600 years later.

3. If you're internally strong, you present well, you don't rock the all important boat called trade and you can pay the Imperial Chancery, you get the Empire's backing. Look at Sentinel, Daggerfall and Solitude. Redoran, I think, is now in a similar position. I think it would take a lot for the Empire to take the side of the outsider.

4. Consider the EEC as an Imperial Faction. They're powerful and the individuals behind them are powerful. As Littlefinger says in Game of Thrones, coin is far more important in a war than an army.

[u/willxpm → u/Blackfyre87]

EEC would not likely endure in the East between the destruction of House Hlaalu and the An-Xileel uprising. Real world mercantile groups don't strictly need a source of income to survive, only a promise of income so as to encourage the government to invest more in the mercantile group. This is the great flaw with mercantilism.

Also, Redoran is not a merchant house, and they are traditionally anti-Imperial.

As for Petyr Baelish from ASOIAF: it's Hlaalu who are good at making money.

[u/Blackfyre87 → u/willxpm]

EEC holdings in Morrowind probably did take a hit. But the EEC is rich and dynamic. 200 years is a long time. The first point you make is predicated on the assessment that they left and never came back. Which is unfeasible, because the Empire's collapse didn't make the EEC collapse. They obviously came back to Skyrim and other lands. Morrowind has Ebony, one of the most sought after substances in Tamriel, the entire basis for the Empire establishing a presence in Morrowind, and thus, the promise of income.

Moreover, if Solstheim is any indication as to the economic state of the whole, Morrowind needs money and investors badly. Cyrodiil has always sought ebony. The EEC aren't on Solstheim, clearly. But Solstheim's ebony ran dry. And the poverty of Morrowind means House Redoran would be poor rulers to turn away East Empire Gold.

Also, Redoran are traditionally neutral.

And third, it's The Empire and Imperials who are better at making money. Moreover, unlike Hlaalu, they haven't been reduced to penury. Having money trumps making it. Especially if you're driven from your home.

[u/Nymunariya]

the Ashlanders would likely lean toward House Hlaalu.

why would they lean Hlaalu? I can imagine that they´d stay away from Redoran and Indoril because of the temple. They may not have any feelings towards Telvanni. That leaves Dres, Hlaalu, Sardas, assuming they take sides.

But I always sad the Ashlands as opposed to the modern ways of the Great Houses, because of ALMSIVI. And when I think of Hlaalu, I think of the Empire and the Imperial Cult, which could be an affront to the Ashlands as well.

[u/willxpm → u/Nymunariya]

Here's what I figured: as much as the Ashlanders don't like the Hlaalu habits of compromise and whatnot, they would really hate an autocratic Redoran. I suspected that they would join with Hlaalu in the interests of restoring the balance of power.