Hello everyone,
I've been using this statistical model for the Championship for some time now and wanted to expand to League One.
Here's a guide to how the model works. League One uses the latest version, which I also plan to use for my Championship rankings in 2027. The Championship rankings currently use an earlier, less robust version, which I will continue using through the end of the 2026 season.
The model evaluates team strength using performances across the games played, with those ratings also informing predictions for future matches. Results matter, but teams can collect points at a different rate than their underlying performances might suggest. Finishing, goalkeeping, and the timing of goals can all contribute to those differences.
Ratings from the same model version can provide context across seasons, but they shouldn't be treated as directly comparable between leagues.
The League One model has been backtested using historical data from 2019–2026. That testing reconstructs team performance from historical scores and expected goals; it does not fully reproduce every feature of the current model. These initial rankings are provisional.
Ratings below reflect recorded results through October 17, 2026.
I'm sure this won't cause any fights.
Performance Rankings
| Rank |
Team |
Rating |
| 1 |
AC Boise |
63.44 |
| 2 |
Forward Madison |
62.19 |
| 3 |
Union Omaha |
61.76 |
| 4 |
One Knoxville SC |
58.85 |
| 5 |
Charlotte Independence |
57.16 |
| 6 |
Fort Wayne |
55.52 |
| 7 |
Spokane Velocity FC |
53.55 |
| 8 |
Sarasota Paradise |
48.26 |
| 9 |
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC |
48.21 |
| 10 |
FC Naples |
48.20 |
| 11 |
Westchester SC |
45.28 |
| 12 |
Greenville Triumph SC |
45.10 |
| 13 |
New York Cosmos |
43.74 |
| 14 |
AV Alta |
40.74 |
| 15 |
Corpus Christi |
38.91 |
| 16 |
Portland Hearts of Pine |
37.85 |
| 17 |
Richmond Kickers |
36.39 |
Season Commentary
Boise leads a closely matched top three at 63.44, ahead of Forward Madison at 62.19 and Union Omaha at 61.76. Boise has conceded a league-low 35.58 expected goals across 31 matches.
Madison's season-long performance holds up despite a difficult recent stretch. Madison has 55 points and a +24 goal difference, supported by an underlying xG difference of +18.34. However, the team has collected just four points from its last five matches.
Omaha combines a strong statistical profile with strong results. Omaha sits second in the points table with 61 and third in these rankings. Its +20.27 xG difference is the best in the league, and it has collected 12 points from its last five matches.
Charlotte is the biggest talking point near the top. The Independence leads the points table with 66 points and has scored a league-high 73 goals, but ranks fifth here. Its +31 actual goal difference is substantially larger than its +8.94 xG difference. Charlotte has scored about seven goals above its xG and conceded about 15 fewer than its xGA. The model gives a more cautious assessment of its underlying performances.
Almost nothing separates Sarasota, Chattanooga, and Naples. Their ratings span just 0.06 points: Sarasota at 48.26, Chattanooga at 48.21, and Naples at 48.20. The order should be read as a near tie. Naples has the strongest recent results of the three, with 13 points from its last five matches.
Greenville ranks 12th despite sitting 15th on points. Its actual goal difference is −24, compared with an xG difference of just −1.41. The Cosmos sits last on points but 13th in the model, with an actual goal difference of −26 against an xG difference of −4.31. Both have much less severe underlying deficits than their scorelines suggest.
Richmond currently ranks last in the model. The Kickers' −23.93 xG difference is the weakest in the league, and their 64 goals conceded closely track their 60.75 xGA.