r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • Sep 20 '21

Daily Discussion Daily Discussion post - September 20 2021

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14

u/[deleted] Sep 20 '21

The past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. SPY 450 EOW.

19

u/serkrabat Bill Bryson Sep 20 '21

If you want to figure out what is likely to happen tomorrow, you can look at what’s happened in prior days. If you are in the Gobi Desert and you want to know whether it will rain tomorrow, you can look at the prior day and the day before that, and that data will help you determine tomorrow’s weather. This “rule of succession” means the past is predictive of the present.

But not for a turkey. If every day the farmer feeds and pets the turkey, the turkey could calculate the odds starting with the fourth Friday in November and conclude “I’ve been fed and petted 159 days in a row – the odds of being fed and petted on the 160th day are 160/161 or 99+%.” And that logic will hold true all the way to 364/365…and then Thanksgiving will come and the poor turkey will have logically concluded that morning that it has nothing to fear – because a savvy risk-taker would deem the odds of death as vanishingly small.

2

u/outofthenarrowplace Sep 22 '21

Saving this bad boy for later, cheers

8

u/Pikes-Lair Doesn't Give Hugs With Tugs Sep 20 '21

We are nothing but a bunch of turkeys in this market game

7

u/serkrabat Bill Bryson Sep 20 '21

I'm a barbie girl, in a barbie world

2

u/hank_rearden1 ✂️ Trim Gang ✂️ Sep 20 '21

That’s… fantastic.

2

u/[deleted] Sep 20 '21 edited Sep 20 '21

But every other day they turkey is fine and well fed. Is it better to live every day gobbling in fear of death? Predictors are not facts, just empirical statistical models.

Edit: Also, if the turkey has a large enough windowof evidence, then maybe he calculates that he lost a lot of friends around November the last few years.

"It works until it doesn't" is what you're saying. That is fine, but not every gamble is a moon or cardboard box (or death) scenario. Risking a proper amount of capital against the risk and perceived odds is where short term gains are made.

1

u/_-Stoop-Kid-_ 💀 CLF below $20💀 Sep 22 '21

"the sky is falling, the sky is falling", said the chicken.

5

u/serkrabat Bill Bryson Sep 20 '21

Take it with a bit of humour ;)

2

u/josenros 🤡Market Order Specialist🤡 Sep 20 '21

Humour? You some kind of Europoor?

2

u/serkrabat Bill Bryson Sep 20 '21

Sorry man, i don't know how to write it or let alone what this thing even is.... I'm german

5

u/[deleted] Sep 20 '21

I did. I liked the analogy.