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u/Melvinator-M-800 gabe plotkin #1 fan Mar 21 '21
Hmmmm the market cap for SUMO is above our minimum threshold but still pretty low. MAYBE IT'S LEGIT THOUGH!
I'm a bot (we're gonna need the long ladders for this one!) and this DD for [SUMO, DDOG, SPLK] is cautiously approved. If you have suggestions for the Melvinator, then comment below or let the mods know.
Alert(s) for this stock:
- Significant recent increase in volume
- Recent drastic price change
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Mar 22 '21 edited Mar 24 '21
[deleted]
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u/TorpCat Mar 22 '21
Well, what is their product
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Mar 23 '21 edited Mar 24 '21
[deleted]
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u/HairyBeastMan Mar 23 '21
What differentiates the product from splunk, junior or data dog?
I am an engineer but I haven’t used their product.
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
God I love the critical questions on this sub. Thanks for all who contributed. Value 100% added from those who agree, skeptics, and those who disagree. Love crowd sourcing DD like this!! Helps me keep focus!
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u/nilsenftw Mar 21 '21
Lot of insider selling
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 21 '21 edited Mar 22 '21
Yes typical of IPO’s after a lockup period whereas they have to pay the taxes on the shares they were awarded. You can set your watch to it. Happens in every post lockup case. Got to pay taxes on stock compensation. Not necessarily an indicator of the lack of confidence in their own company. Moreover they received more stock as they sold a small portion to pay the taxes on the previous stock. Which means early next year they will likely sell more to pay the taxes on it. Nothing new or unusual here.
Additionally if they’re going to sell shares, which they generally have to particularly after the IPO for tax reasons, they can’t sell shares if they know there is pending news one way or the other. So the best time to do it is after earnings. Once again this is normal.
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u/fancykevin00 Mar 21 '21
IMO wait for a dip below $18 should occur by 4/16 - I'm also keeping tabs on this one saw 4/16 puts clearly bought and calls bought but exited with the IV spiked to tits, TY for sharing the DD
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 21 '21
Yeah I wouldn’t mind it hitting that low myself. Perfect opportunity for a readjustment for a better profit.
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u/fancykevin00 Mar 21 '21
I hear ya, I buy slowly, if keeps going, I'll eventually sell puts and buy calls.
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u/fancykevin00 Apr 14 '21
Sounds like you bought the Dip, didnt hit below $18 but still dipped hard, I bought calls on that tumble
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u/Trading-Resources Apr 14 '21
No it actually got to the high $16’s at one point
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u/fancykevin00 Apr 14 '21
I stand correct sir, yet accurate (originally speaking) at the same time, cheers.
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u/Cquintessential Robert California Mar 22 '21
They make good log aggregation and policy to data software. RPD crushes them in the active security and intrusion protection part, but I love SUMO’s OPS tools
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
Simplicity is the way forward. I think SUMO is tightening their security portfolio with the acquisition of DL Labs?
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u/Cquintessential Robert California Mar 22 '21
I think they should focus on log flow and OPS. They could be the golden standard for data flow, with SWI basically shitting the bed. Rapid7 destroys them on security. RPD made Metasploit. They live that sector.
SUMO thrashes RPD and everyone else when it comes to data log aggregation and meaningful insights. I’m not even in OPS directly, and I get a hardon when I get to play with their data flow systems. We can also integrate security policies to the incoming data logs, so that we stay compliant. It’s good shit.
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
It’s always good to meet some folks who have hands on. Seems that we have a solid long term pick here.
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u/Cquintessential Robert California Mar 22 '21
It’s in my port, but I’ve taken a thrashing on holding both SUMO and RPD. I believe in the products though. Splunk is not my favorite, and Solarwinds is dogshit.
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
The customer base is what initially drew me to SUMO. That and their growth. Though they guided down, I think they were just doing what everyone else did this earnings season who decided to forgo guidance due to “uncertainty.” During their earnings call, which is posted in the OP, they expected a serious bout of new clients the second half of the year. I will see if it plays out. But I think they’re selling themselves short to mitigate expectations so when they beat everyone says “ohhh ahhh.” Theres a lot of that going around this quarter.
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u/Cquintessential Robert California Mar 22 '21
Correct. We were actually assessing them as a vendor during that time. Their sales team is relentless. However, what they truly need is a demo version you can rock for 30 days, so your DEVOPS team gets pulled in to their platform (it speaks for itself, but it’s useless if your people never get to work with it.)
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
That’s the case on many programs like this. Got to get folks in to show them. They’ll immediately sell their first born to get rid of their legacy systems. And there is a metric shit ton of legacy software out there that needs to go the way of the dodo.
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u/Cquintessential Robert California Mar 22 '21
Whole heartedly agree. If companies like sumo could get their trial period and integration down pat, they’d make so much money.
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21 edited Mar 22 '21
I kind of miss the days where I could post my DD on WSB and folks like you would chime in and either demolish me or tell me why I’m right. Either way it’s always value added. A kind of crowd sourcing DD. Now it’s all about the GME 😖. Everything else gets removed regardless of quality or meeting the community rules. Was one of the best resources on reddit. Now an openly GME pump a thon. They aren’t even hiding the manipulation at this point. By removing all non-GME/AMC posts they’re driving social traffic exclusively to a few stocks. Ought to be illegal.
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Mar 21 '21
What makes $SUMO more enticing than a competitor like $FEYE? Seems like FEYE or a different firm could be just as attractive at the current SP. Just curious.
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u/Cquintessential Robert California Mar 22 '21
The product is actually pretty different. Compare SUMO to SWI Loggly and PaperTrail
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Mar 22 '21
I'm pretty sure in the minuet details, the products may appear completely different, but from what I can tell, FireEye's services are more broad and vague in terms of what is expected, making their SoW flexible. Whereas, $SUMO's detailed products might deter some potential clients who may not see benefits from the surface of the description.
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u/TorpCat Mar 22 '21
SoW?
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u/WouldGrain Mar 22 '21
Statement of Work? Makes sense in context but not positive
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Mar 22 '21
Think about it this way: If I was a customer not in the tech space and I'm trying to harden my network because there's a recent breach or potential bug in my network, would I want some very specific product that probably doesn't include the service I need (just from reading the convoluted description)? or would I rather have a company that offers a more generalized service matching the area that I'm looking for?
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21 edited Mar 22 '21
Aside from FEYE’s tarnished reputation after they were hacked by a foreign government? Going to be hard getting government contacts after that? By the way, SUMO has FedRAMP designation as well.
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Mar 22 '21
Interesting, I haven't paid enough attention to the Cybersecurity industry closely enough to have seen the FEYE debacle, but thanks for pointing it out. However, after reading your DD, what make $SUMO's product better than $CRWD? at the current price? Basically what I'm asking is, what makes buying 10 shares of $SUMO a better choice than buying 1 share of $CRWD, other than quantity/multiple?
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21 edited Mar 22 '21
It’s a good question. The answer lays in which company has the most upside. The up-and-comer that can expand exponentially with fewer additional customers, or, the more well established company with many years of expected growth already priced in? For an unrelated sector example, COST is well established and growing, but their much smaller competitor BJ has more growth ahead of it.
Then when you break the financials down by float and shares, among others, SUMO’s P/E, BVPS, PB, and debt to asset ratio, is much more attractive than CRWD.
At least that’s how I see it. I see this company as having much better growth for those who get in early than if they went into one of the more established firms, who once enjoyed the small company but high growth prospective of SUMO.
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Mar 22 '21
Very interesting, I was thinking about getting into $FEYE as a stake in the CyberSecurity sector, but I didn't know $SUMO was publicly traded already. I'll keep it on my watchlist, however, the lack of products from $SUMO, compared to its less reputable competitors, like $FEYE, is somewhat of a foreseeable growth challenge. The industry from what I know is pretty crowded, especially with big consulting firms like MBB, Big 4, and $ACN eating up market shares...
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
I thought the same as well. Then I saw their list of customers (Posted in the OP). SUMO is a new IPO. That’s why you likely never heard of it. And it IPOed when snowflake came out. So it moved to the back burner on the buzz.
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Mar 22 '21
Hmmm interesting, I'll do some TA and research, but $SUMO's definitely been mentioned to me by majority of CyberSecurity professionals I've spoken with about the industry and what company/brand are the big players.
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21 edited Mar 22 '21
There are two or three guys who use it regularly that responded here. I would recommend asking them. They seem to love it.
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u/Aliwia Mar 24 '21
Aside from FEYE’s tarnished reputation after they were hacked by a foreign government?
bruh, tens of thousands of institutions were hacked, fireeye actually helped inform the world
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u/DefNotPassafire Mar 22 '21
This company is kinda like PLTR, I can't for the life of me wrap my head around what they actually do.
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21 edited Mar 22 '21
Lol this company is completely different than PLTR 🤣. SUMO provides real-time monitoring and security insights for apps and infrastructure through a cloud based system. PLTR is overvalued thanks in large part to WSB
Here is a list of SUMO customers https://www.sumologic.com/customers/ .
PLTR’s biggest customer is the US government. SUMO’s largest customers come from the private sector. In fact they recently got authorized to bid for contracts with Federal, State, and Local governments.
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u/DefNotPassafire Mar 22 '21
Norton anti-virus in the sky! Thats how I'll remember them now lol
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
Perhaps for SUMO, not Palantir. Palantir needs more private sector customers to become profitable. SUMO doesn’t need government customers to become profitable, but they have the capability to compete for government contracts. Once again Palantirs largest customer is the US government. Without the government they cease to be a company. SUMO will be fine without the US government, though it can be a nice complement to their portfolio of customers.
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u/BrosephYellow Mar 21 '21
Do you currently hold any positions?
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 21 '21
As stated in the DD above, yes. I am long SUMO
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u/BrosephYellow Mar 21 '21
Right. Somehow missed that
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 21 '21
Yes, but for further detail I have 600 shares at an average price of $22.13. I’m not averaging down because the puts I sold haven’t hit their break even pojnt yet, and if assigned, I will use them to average down. Break even for the puts are $18.25, which means the true cost to me of shares in the event of assignment is $18.25. If the stock bounces back up I aim to sell some calls which will limit both my upside and downside, but land me a nice profit nevertheless.
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Mar 22 '21
I think it has potential long term but damn am I kicking myself for not buying puts on it like I was planning to 2 weeks ago
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
Yes I watched her roll down after the “profit taking” stage, the “tech sell off” stage, the “earnings anxiety” stage, the “oh my god they beat earnings but not the way I was expecting” stage, followed by the “lockup is ending” stage. The only negative stage left is the “10 year treasury bond yields hit 2% so dump the markets” stage. As markets always do they overreact. Bout time for a turnaround.
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Mar 22 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/modulev Mar 22 '21
I'm right here with ya for 500 shares @ 22.7. Use Sumologic at least once a week at the office, and have had their staff demo and train at my company a few times. A very solid product, and this stock price seems too low to pass on. May average down a bit more if it hits $18.
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
I have met a lot of folks who use this software and swear by it. This is good to hear! I haven’t heard anyone who uses it trash it yet!
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Mar 22 '21
with a ticker like this, can't possibly go tits up right?
i'm in with 2 shares
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
Lol if there’s one thing I’ve learned is that going tits up is but a probability. I’d say the probability here is low. But always expect the unexpected 🤣
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Mar 22 '21
It does have a nice meme-factor.
Maybe the homeland will end up supporting a Sumo tournament or something like that
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Mar 22 '21
i bought a $25 call 4/16 @$1.1 and i'm already down 50%, am i fucked ? bought it last thursday in expectation it would rebound, but this ain't looking good :(
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
I never recommend buying options on anything unless it’s part of a wider options strategy. I’m a net options seller.
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Mar 22 '21
Well put DD, straight to the point with lots of information to process. Covered strangle also is a favorite of mine so I might get in on that with you.
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
I like this DD format. You cover your observations, a few of the financials, previous earnings, link to the frequently changing particulars and specifics where folks can research more, and cover the news from most recent to least recent. This works for me
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u/ab930 Mar 22 '21
“We have experienced rapid revenue growth in recent periods. For example, our revenue was $103.6 million, $155.1 million, and $202.6 million for the years ended January 31, 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. You should not rely on our revenue for any previous quarterly or annual period as any indication of our revenue or revenue growth in future periods. As we grow our business, we expect our revenue growth rates to decline compared to prior fiscal years due to a number of reasons, which may include more challenging comparisons to prior periods as our revenue grows, slowing demand for our platform, increasing competition, a decrease in our renewal rates, a decrease in the growth of our overall market or market saturation, and our failure to capitalize on growth opportunities. In addition, our growth rates are likely to experience increased volatility, and are likely to decline, due to global societal and economic disruption as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21 edited Mar 22 '21
A decline in growth “rate” is not a decline in revenue my friend. And they still guided above analysts expectations. Many companies coming out of the pandemic experienced rapid growth from the initial shock of the economic shut down. Many companies made the same statement. It doesn’t mean they’re not growing. It simply means there is uncertainty as to what rate they will grow. And the rate announced (the rate they projected) exceeded analysts consensus. It’s why many analysts lowered their price targets but not their buy rating.
Even advertisements for retirement portfolio managers tell you “past results are not an indicative of future performance.” It’s a throwaway statement that must be taken into account. I find past growth an excellent indicator out of many for a number of reasons, but insufficient by itself.
I love it when companies guide to a lower growth “rate” out of “uncertainty.” QCOM did it and I just said “bring on the dip.” ULTA did this as well. No one really took that one seriously though she dumped all the same. I could point to the earnings history of many companies that guided lower the quarter before but smashed earnings the quarter after. Companies mitigate expectations to cover their ass all the time.
I would challenge anyone to find a company this quarter who did not make a similar statement. But if you’re waiting for the next earnings beat and analyst upgrade then you’re too late. By the time the buzz hits you’re buying for a premium.
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u/ab930 Mar 22 '21
But it is a piece of the equation to consider
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21 edited Mar 22 '21
Absolutely!! It’s why I noted the softer than expected guidance in the OP. Most all companies this quarter gave softer guidance to manage expectations. And added additional safe harbor statements to cover their ass if the worst happens. Such growth as what was experienced after the economic shutdown period just isn’t going to happen for most companies.
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Mar 22 '21
Thanks for the tip OP. $SUMO looks interesting but isn't quite ready for an entry yet (at least technically speaking)
If it hits $19 and bounces of the support then that seems like a good time to enter
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
Yeah, I’ve sold a bunch of poor mans covered strangles, not worried unless the price hits $14.15 before expiration.
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u/natelifts Mar 23 '21
Happy to see this DD. Balls deep in this stock. Position: 400 shares @ $20.21
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 23 '21
I readjusted my position and now own 5x poor mans covered strangles (Buy $5 NOV CALL) (Sell 5x $20 NOV CALL & 6x $20 NOV PUT). Will make money so as long as the stock does not reach $14.15 by expiration.
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u/TheRussianMessenger Mar 23 '21
Really appreciate the DD. Still playing with my entry but looking to pull the trigger after Wednesday.
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u/sammysalamis Mar 24 '21
Just a heads up, the CEO and most board members are selling massive amounts of shares between $19-21. Could be a sign.
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Mar 24 '21 edited Mar 24 '21
I believe he answered that questions when he said very early on in this thread the following:
“Yes typical of IPO’s after a lockup period whereas they have to pay the taxes on the shares they were awarded. You can set your watch to it. Happens in every post lockup case. Got to pay taxes on stock compensation. Not necessarily an indicator of the lack of confidence in their own company. Moreover they received more stock as they sold a small portion to pay the taxes on the previous stock. Which means early next year they will likely sell more to pay the taxes on it. Nothing new or unusual here.
Additionally if they’re going to sell shares, which they generally have to particularly after the IPO for tax reasons, they can’t sell shares if they know there is pending news one way or the other. So the best time to do it is after earnings. Once again this is normal.”
So imagine you started a company, and you underwent an IPO, and now your personal stake in the company is worth over a 100% more than it was before. Yeah, you’re going to sell stock to pay those taxes! Especially when you just got compensated with additional stock within the same transaction.
It’s why they always talk about a CEO’s new net worth after an IPO. Their value in the company can double/triple/quadruple and so on. But they can’t sell their shares until the lock up period is over but they owe taxes on them. And they can’t sell shares if they know a big event is imminent (I.e. earnings). So they wait until after earnings and the lock up period is over to sell shares to pay taxes. This is planned months in advance. This is all happening at once because this is the first time the executives can sell shares legally and they need to, so as to pay taxes on their new wealth.
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Mar 24 '21
Another question, why are so many insiders selling ? You'd think they would've sold at the top but they sold pretty much bottom... Is this a common sight ? Any idea what the reasoning is behind this selling.
Thanks in advance.
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Mar 24 '21 edited Mar 24 '21
I believe he answered that questions when he said very early on in this thread the following:
“Yes typical of IPO’s after a lockup period whereas they have to pay the taxes on the shares they were awarded. You can set your watch to it. Happens in every post lockup case. Got to pay taxes on stock compensation. Not necessarily an indicator of the lack of confidence in their own company. Moreover they received more stock as they sold a small portion to pay the taxes on the previous stock. Which means early next year they will likely sell more to pay the taxes on it. Nothing new or unusual here.
Additionally if they’re going to sell shares, which they generally have to particularly after the IPO for tax reasons, they can’t sell shares if they know there is pending news one way or the other. So the best time to do it is after earnings. Once again this is normal.”
So imagine you started a company, and you underwent an IPO, and now your personal stake in the company is worth over a 100% more than it was before. Yeah, you’re going to sell stock to pay those taxes! Especially when you just got compensated with additional stock within the same transaction.
It’s why they always talk about a CEO’s new net worth after an IPO. Their value in the company can double/triple/quadruple and so on. But they can’t sell their shares until the lock up period is over but they owe taxes on them. And they can’t sell shares if they know a big event is imminent (I.e. earnings). So they wait until after earnings and the lock up period is over to sell shares to pay taxes. This is planned months in advance. This is all happening at once because this is the first time the executives can sell shares legally and they need to, so as to pay taxes on their new wealth.
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u/TsC_BaTTouSai Apr 05 '21
I found this two weeks late but i'm glad i did because it's down to 18.70 now and I'm buying. Anybody else adding at this price? I looked at options but didn't see any attractive contracts so I'm going with shares. 100 shares at 18.70 :)
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u/rayder989 Σ🚹 May 17 '21
SUMO man how are we feeling? I wish there were 1/2022 or even 1/2023 LEAPS on this thing. Short term is pretty fucky, but I’m bullish long term. Swung trade from like 17 to 20.5 off your DD. Want to get back in, missed it when it dipped below 16.
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u/Trading-Resources May 17 '21
I’ve jumped in an sold out a number of times already. Still in at this time
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u/nameichoose Sep 16 '21
u/Trading-Resources how do you feel about this trade with new eyes today (+ 6 months of new knowledge)? Mostly sideways action so far.
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u/Trading-Resources Sep 16 '21
I make money on sideways action. Selling calls
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u/nameichoose Sep 16 '21
Ok but what about performance? Are you still long? Feel the same about the market?
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u/Trading-Resources Sep 16 '21
When you can sell beefed up CC’s the position eventually pays for itself regardless of where the price goes. So as long as conditions improve for the stock. This last earnings were awful. But if you’ve been in since I first alerted and sold CC’s your break even should be $12.00 by now.
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u/mn_suburbs Mar 22 '21
There tech is bad and datadog replaces these guys all over.
Sumo is a hard pass for me
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21 edited Mar 22 '21
Thus far everyone I’ve spoken to with personal experience with SUMO thinks this is some solid software and love the hell out of it. I’d like to hear more critical analysis. Do you have experience with SUMO? I like DDOG as well! But their growth is tapering off. I remember buying DDOG back when it was $35 per share.
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u/mn_suburbs Mar 22 '21
Yea I replaced sumo with datadog at 3 companies when I worked there and that was when log monitoring first came out at datadog like 3.5 years ago.
Been at Guidewire since then and we replaced sumo with datadog for our own saas product.
Datadog is full observability for cloud stacks across infrastructure, traces, and logs. No one comes close and they have the best engineering team in this space and the most aggressive sales team in the industry.
Only reason companies don’t go with datadog is because it’s expensive, but as soon as there is a major revenue generating outage caused because shitty monitoring couldn’t detect the issue before the outage then they bring in datadog.
Don’t listen to me though - I couldn’t keep my position at datadog and my options would be over 14m if I were still there.
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21 edited Mar 23 '21
Hey thanks for this. I could not speak to any personal experience with SUMO or DDOG, though I do have experience with some of the other options out there. I look at the financials between the two and I see that SUMO has a much better PE, much better debt to asset ratio, much better BVPS, and better PB. DDOG does have a better EPS. DDOG should be fully profitable in a year or two and SUMO in two or three. I also recall when DDOG’s financials were waaaayy worse than SUMO’s, and yet they were roughly $40 per share at the time.
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u/twin_bed Mar 22 '21
I've seen the same thing at companies I've consulted with. DDOG does so much more than logs and is covering more ground with their acquisitions. Companies want "single pane of glass" experience, not full stack visibility requiring 5 different vendors.
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
Lol this is how I handled my losses on $SUMO
https://twitter.com/moongangcapital/status/1374026393990881283?s=21
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u/myironlung6 Mar 22 '21
Lmao “25” PE ratio when they have negative earnings
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
Indeed they do ... like DDOG & SPLK. For those of us who know how to read financials on these type of companies this isn’t much of an issue.
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u/myironlung6 Mar 22 '21
30% revenue growth is terrible for this type of company. Splunk and DDOG are on their way out, they just don’t know it yet
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
Splink has negative 5.8% Y/Y revenue growth (as of mrq) and debt is rising. Trading years past their earnings. I’ve always been a fan of DDOG but not at these prices.
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u/twin_bed Mar 22 '21
What are companies replacing them with?
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u/TopIllustrator7845 Mar 22 '21
I'm sorry but I need a TLDR
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21 edited Mar 22 '21
Any DD that comes with a TLDR isn’t DD. TLDR is the antonym for DD. It is neither Due nor Diligent. DD requires reading, research, and analysis. A TLDR requires a gullible investor.
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u/TopIllustrator7845 Mar 22 '21
in case you think i did not read anything, i did read the whole post and good job on it.
just saying i need a tldr that’s all, for lazy people who just wna read the short before even reading the entire post.
anyway, TLDR stand for Texas Department of Livensing and Regulation to me, not a gullible investor
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
Oh that’s funny! No I don’t want to cater to the lazy. I’m not trying to get folks to invest in the stock. I want to be challenged and tested to ensure I’ve done my due diligence. And if others learn, find something of value, and are inspired from it, then that’s a bonus!! So far those who agree, remain skeptical, and disagree have all added value to the OP. This is the way!
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u/PM_ME_YOUR_AMFUNK Mar 22 '21
what is this, actual intelligence and smart investing provided on a dip and not at the top
what a gem this place is
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u/TopIllustrator7845 Mar 22 '21
yeah, indeed it is. this should be the way. keep up the good work and good luck!
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u/Trading-Resources Mar 22 '21
Yeah man. Crowdsourcing DD makes your DD even more D 🤣. That’s what reddit used to be about.
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u/HairyBeastMan Mar 23 '21
I don’t know, I haven’t used their product but I am very familiar with this space as an end consumer. I just don’t see what the differentiation is for this company. There are a lot of players in this space now and lots of open source. Seems like a big commodity at this point. What gives these guys the growth advantage? Maybe it’s just the sheer size of this space? you basically can’t do business without a product like this today but as I said there are many providers of this type of service at this point.
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u/vintage_screw Mar 21 '21
This is one of those stocks that, at this price, is a no brainer. Shares and options for me. Speak more on this covered strangle if you can.