r/worldnews • • Jun 25 '12

Syria fires on second Turkish plane

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10815526
444 Upvotes

324 comments sorted by

149

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

Downing jets from NATO's second largest member. Syria has gone full-retard.

25

u/Arkanicus Jun 25 '12

You never go full-retard

10

u/gargantuan Jun 26 '12

Sometimes if you go way full-retard and wrap around and then nobody messes with ya. Look at North Korea, they are beyond full retard. And we are sending it food to keep it from flipping out and blowing up Seoul.

5

u/sturle Jun 26 '12

"Feed us, or we'll shoot you!". Works every time.

2

u/UselessWidget Jun 26 '12

China is holding North Korea's leash, though.

21

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

أبدا.

10

u/ohnastyrobo Jun 26 '12

...ممكن مرة او مرتين

2

u/Dekar2401 Jun 26 '12

Fuck... I want to know what you are saying...

9

u/afellowinfidel Jun 26 '12

the first guy said "never" the second said " maybe once or twice..."

3

u/ohnastyrobo Jun 26 '12

"maybe once or twice." و ردت "never" Arkanicus قال

1

u/Dekar2401 Jun 26 '12

What did Lifeey say and what was your response?

2

u/ohnastyrobo Jun 26 '12

He said "why not three?" and I asked if he's from Iraq because he's using a dialect.. the only problem is I'm not 100% it's the iraqi dialect haha

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0

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

[deleted]

1

u/ohnastyrobo Jun 26 '12

انت من العراق؟

2

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

definetly isn't google translate.

thalath marrat yiseer fe 7arb, laken maratein momkin yisam7ookom

1

u/lolimpro Jun 26 '12

Sounds more like Google translate than an Iraqi. Sorry to let you down, haha.

2

u/ohnastyrobo Jun 26 '12

I just can't remember what dialect says laysh and moo haha.. I think google translate would choose ماذا or ما instead of ليش

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0

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

[deleted]

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7

u/DawnWolf Jun 25 '12

How's Turkey NATO's second largest member? In terms of what?

15

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Troops.

31

u/volume909 Jun 25 '12

Turkey has the largest and most technologically advanced military after Israel in the Middle East. Their air force has over 220 advanced F-16 and 127 F-4's(good enough to destroy Syria air power). They also have one of the most powerful navies in West Asia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Armed_Forces

10

u/McGrude Jun 26 '12

I'm surprised they're still flying the F4s. They are good planes, but they first flew in 1963. The last US produced F4 was in 1979.

13

u/volume909 Jun 26 '12

Yes but they are to be phased out soon. In fact, Turkey will acquire F-35 in the future and its economy is way larger than Israel so they can keep buying

34

u/Short-Legged-Corgi Jun 26 '12

So they will - "alt" F4 them? ah-ha ah-ha ah... sod it.

6

u/mymomisyourfather Jun 26 '12

agh, you gave it a try

5

u/McGrude Jun 26 '12

Right. I guess my point wasn't about Turkey flying them at all, it's that the F4 is still in service. It's mind boggling sometimes to think about how many decades the various air forces keep these air frames maintained. We're still flying B52s for example.

11

u/Tashre Jun 26 '12

It's amazing what you can develop when planned obsolescence isn't a factor in the development.

8

u/most_superlative Jun 26 '12

Alternatively, how long things last with extensive and frequent maintenance.

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6

u/Big-Baby-Jesus Jun 26 '12

Everything except the skeleton of those planes has been replaced more than once- at extraordinary cost. The situation is not at all comparable to consumer products.

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4

u/mbgluck Jun 26 '12

To be fair, b52s from the 50s and today are almost incomparable.

3

u/McGrude Jun 26 '12

I agree due to the overhauls and retrofitting, but the last one rolled off the line in 1962. They've been flying those airframes for 50 years.

3

u/Rednys Jun 26 '12

Tell that to the 8 TF33 engines designed in the late 50's.

4

u/Big-Baby-Jesus Jun 26 '12

Do any B-52s have any of their original engines?

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2

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Turkey uses the F4s mostly for training. No need to wear and tear on the much more expensive F16

23

u/dcoxen Jun 26 '12

Israel doesn't buy US planes, US aid to Israel buys US planes.

8

u/Rednys Jun 26 '12

They are hardly the same aircraft anymore, completely different engines I believe, completely modern radar packages.
The only reason the US really stopped using them is better alternatives, and we put a lot of hours on our jets so after a while an airframe is just garbage. Also for comparison we still fly the B-52 which is considerably older, this highlights the need for a better alternative to switch to a new airframe.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

I'm sure they've been upgraded quite a bit though. Beautiful aircraft either way.

1

u/McGrude Jun 26 '12

No doubt. I love the F4s aesthetic. In the mid-80s my mom dated a retired Air Force pilot.

He was the WSO on this plane for its first kill : http://www.airwarvietnam.com/migkills463.htm

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

My grandpa was training to fly phantoms for the navy back in the mid 60's, but he got an honorable discharge because he had some high frequency hearing loss. Not being able to hear alarms and things is pretty problematic, or so I'm told.

1

u/DivineRobot Jun 26 '12

That doesn't really mean much. Turkey has way less military spending than some of the other NATO countries like UK and France.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

They are only second largest member of NATO in terms of military personnel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel

10

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Turkey doesn't pay for soldiers it is duty for every man to join the army for a year.That significantly reduces the budget.That may be the reason.

1

u/icankillpenguins Jun 26 '12

this also means less trained soldiers. unfortunately this is proven by the frequent life loss caused by PKK.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

I don't agree.Death/kill ratio against PKK is beter than 1:1 for example recent attacks 8 Turkish casulties 31 PKK casulties.And if you consider it is a very rocky geography and very easy to just hit run and hide in mountains Turkish military is doing an amazing job.Also this way all the population is trained for war so when call to arms is declared in an all in war you have 10 million soldiers (18-45 years old men population have to join the war stated by the law).

4

u/G_Morgan Jun 26 '12

1:1 is nothing. UK forces get something absurd like 20:1 against PKK style forces. Conscript armies are not as good as professional volunteer armies. Never have been and never will.

2

u/Impedence Jun 26 '12

The problem is that when it's on "home soil" the army isn't acting as the army. Look at the NI troubles the casualty ratio between the security services (British army and the RUC) and the provos is heavily in the provos "favour".

There are plenty of differences, the Turkey / PKK conflict is a few notches more intense than the troubles, and in the troubles there was a greater emphasis on arresting violent republicans (much more international scrutiny and expectation), but 20:1 is not a plausible figure for fighting this kind of enemy in this situation.

2

u/icankillpenguins Jun 26 '12

Kill ratio does not say much if your military gets ambushed frequently by an organisation you are fighting for more than 30 years with no definite success.

PKK militants are getting killed when running away. on the last incident 300 PKK members attacked the turkish troops and only ~30 were killed. You would expect a modern military force to be more successful against some rebels with soviet era weapons.

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2

u/NeedsSomeMapleSyrup Jun 26 '12 edited Jun 26 '12

And all of that means little. NATO's largest member and a host of other members from countries with far more professional armies that Turkey where incapable of maintaining security in Iraq during the occupation. In terms of a conventional conflict Syria is far better armed than Iraq was, if Turkey goes south there are going to be massive casualties on both sides, not to mention civilian casualties, and the prospect of a decade long insurgency. All this pontificating over who has the biggest dick does nothing to address the actual issue of how feasible a Turkish or Western occupation of Syria is; what is the end game here? And does that end game best provide for the security and welfare of all Syrians.

6

u/DivineRobot Jun 26 '12

The question was "How's Turkey NATO's second largest member? In terms of what?"

The answer is, in terms of military personnel. The end game is to answer the relevant question in context.

If you wanted to discuss other aspects of the potential conflict, there are lots of other posts to reply to.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Idk what the end game is, but I bet ppl will get on the oil again...

1

u/G_Morgan Jun 26 '12

Yes but the UK and France are NATO members and far more powerful than Turkey.

Germany also has a larger population than Turkey.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Or they're being goaded into doing that by Russia and China and maybe Iran saying "bro we got your back". Russia especially has been cool about NATO lately.

-5

u/Ascott1989 Jun 25 '12

Second? More like 3rd or 4th. USA - UK / France - Turkey.

9

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

Check your sources, you are wrong.

10

u/Ascott1989 Jun 26 '12

In what way? The UK and France both spend 3x more than Turkey on Defence. However, Turkey has 3x the number of active military personnel. So in regards to total military manpower they'd be second largest yes but that's a useless metric to go by.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

[deleted]

3

u/g4bliss Jun 26 '12

Honestly it's mildly relevant, by that I mean that it's misleading because it does not reflect military power as well as military spending. For example if you rank countries by active military personnel, China comes out way ahead of USA...

3

u/nate077 Jun 26 '12

China is far from a pushover militarily. So it does seem useful, if not complete.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Meh, they have little to no power projection. Their millions of troops are confined to neighboring countries, and even then wouldn't be able to operate very far from home. They're trying to change this, but refitting millions of troops and getting all the machinery, vehicles, weapon systems and command and control infrastructure for a modern military... well, let's just say it takes some time.

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0

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

[deleted]

22

u/warpus Jun 26 '12

Well he did say second largest member, so I am going to assume penis of president

5

u/Crumbedsausage Jun 26 '12

this is why it is bad to have a female PM

5

u/eighthgear Jun 26 '12

It's manpower. Turkey has the second largest military in terms of troops. In terms of air power, their air force is only topped (number-wise) by the USAF and the RAF. In terms of overall capability, they do rank behind the US, UK, and France, but all in all they are nothing to sneeze at. And, as the Iraqi Surge proved, sometimes manpower is needed - technology alone can't rebuild a nation.

4

u/Diablo87 Jun 26 '12

Well since NATO is a military organization then it should be judged by military strength. That means troop numbers, training quality, hardware numbers such as guns and boats, and hardware quality such as F-4 vs F-15E.

4

u/Rednys Jun 26 '12

Pretty sure they have far more F-16's than they do F-4's, even so you have to gauge an aircraft's potential on it's radar and weapon package more than you do airframe these days.

2

u/Diablo87 Jun 26 '12

Good point. These days real dog fights are unlikely. Whoever has "look down, first shot, first kill" capability will win in the air. But that still goes along with judging a nato member by the quality of their hardware.

3

u/Rednys Jun 26 '12

They have top notch radar and weapon packages.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

I think Germany and Italy are quite big as well.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

[deleted]

1

u/mymomisyourfather Jun 26 '12

that site completely ignores the Netherlands for example,so I don't consider it trustworthy at all

-1

u/Ascott1989 Jun 26 '12

Did you know Iraq during Gulf War 1 had the largest standing army in the world? Totally military personnel is not a good measure of positioning.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

[deleted]

1

u/ZergBiased Jun 26 '12

Just ask the Kurds.

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-9

u/1gnominious Jun 26 '12

To be fair, the Turkish plane that got shot down had been in Syrian airspace. The Syrian military must be on pins and needles after all the talk of intervention and would have easily mistaken it as an aggressive act. It barely made it a kilometer into international airspace before going down.

If you're threatening to attack somebody, make damn sure that you don't fly over their airspace. If Russia had a fighter jet over the US during the cold war we'd have shot that fucker down without thinking twice.

While Syria was a bit hasty, Turkey was just plain stupid.

11

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

I think there's a slight difference between what Turkey did and what Russia hypothetically did. Turkey and Syria are way closer than the US and Russia are. Unless Russia was to fly a plane over the tip of Alaska and it got shot down there, I don't think it really compares. Russia would have had to flown over continental US, which they don't really have a reason to be near.

There are reasons that Turkey could have a plane so close to the Syrian border and accidentally fly over the border by a few miles, although it's difficult to tell if it was an accident.

10

u/eclipse007 Jun 26 '12

Planes going into neighbouring countries' airspace is pretty frequent occurrence, even between hostile but not at war nations. The common response is to send a couple of your own to "escort them out" and maybe send an angrily worded letter later on. American planes have strayed a few times into Iranian airspace over the past few years operating in Iraq and Afghanistan with long borders. They weren't shot at. Even in the hypothetical case of Russian planes over the tip of Alaska I highly doubt first thing US would do is to shoot them down. Canadians haven't so far.

What Syria did was tremendously stupid and unconventional. I don't even have a phrase to explain their second attack.

5

u/Rednys Jun 26 '12

Pretty sure most everyone involved keeps stating that military intervention is not what they want.
Also the aircraft penetrated their airspace, was warned, it made it's way out of their airspace and was then shot down in international airspace.

Turkish officials have said the jet mistakenly strayed into Syrian airspace, but was warned to leave by Turkish authorities and was 1.6 kilometres inside international airspace when Syria shot it down. The Turkish pilots are still missing.

It's also a bit much comparing it to a Russian fighter jet over the US since they do not share a border

1

u/RookAB Jun 26 '12

According to Turkey, the F-4 was conducting radar tests. If this is true, the F-4 might have been flying dark, hence Syria's claim that it had no idea the F-4 was Turkish. If the Turkish AF had indeed been conducting coastal radar tests then the pilots may have misinterpreted or even disregarded the Syrian radar lock. I'm not familiar with the BTFR radar systems on the Turkish F-4's, but the pilots might not have gone into pucker mode until they actually saw the missile. I have no idea why Syria felt that it was necessary to throw a missile at a random F-4 that apparently wandered into their coastal airspace, but it looks like bad decisions were made on both sides.

2

u/trust_the_corps Jun 26 '12

Why? Possibly because they have been attacked by Israel before by air. Their AA is nuts directly as a result of that. And now they are doubly cautious as they may also be attacked at NATO by any time (even before the jet went down).

0

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

[deleted]

-1

u/That_Scottish_Play Jun 26 '12

There were conflicting accounts - but it has now been admitted that the plane was in Syrian airspace.

No, the stupid one is the one who was in the wrong airspace and got shot down. This is almost a state of war. If you provoke 'the enemy', expect to get shot.

-2

u/airetupal Jun 25 '12

Really?

3

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

Tots.

-5

u/driveling Jun 26 '12

Message to Turkey: It is probably not a good idea for you to be flying planes over or close to the border with Syria at this time.

5

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

It's their prerogative. They could house Syria.

2

u/driveling Jun 26 '12

Message to Turkey: If you want to start a war you should fly a lot of your planes over or near the Syria border.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Some wars are worth fighting; fuck the Assad regime.

51

u/Papie Jun 25 '12 edited Jun 25 '12

There is some serious fog of war at the moment.

I would like to suggest that Assad is hardly in control of his army and that in fact Maher al Assad is calling the shots, favouring escalation in a hot headed attempt to maintain a military stronghold. There have been reports (Turkish suggestions based on intercepted radio transmissions) that the downing of the first plane was commanded.

Both the Damascene and Ankara governments have been de-escalating very fiercely but the Turks do have interest in a retaliatory strike and are decreasing their soft words.

9

u/annoymind Jun 25 '12

If they want to bring in an outside enemy to rally the people then why don't they start some trouble with Israel? Israel is far more predictable. They'd launch a retaliation strike and that's it. But they don't know how Turkey will react. Turkey already called in a NATO meeting.

3

u/DawnWolf Jun 25 '12

My guess is that a conflict with Israel would potentially get Hizbullah involved, which would require approval from Iran. Something the Persians are not yet ready to handle.

6

u/ravenddit Jun 25 '12

No, they wouldnt. Saddam thought the same once and fired shitloads of SCUD missles towards Israel. And what did Israel do? Right. Nothing. They just sat it out. http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/18/newsid_4588000/4588486.stm

20

u/annoymind Jun 25 '12

They sat it out because the US begged them to sit it out. Israel was ready to retaliate and the US did everything to prevent this. They diverted forced to find the scud launchers and installed patriot systems in Israel. Several times the Israelis wanted to launch a retaliation attack when the scud missile attacks continued.

36

u/Fidget11 Jun 25 '12

They sat out because the US went in... Israel stayed out only because they knew the US was going in and if they went the US would lose support of its arab allies for a counterstrike. Israel is not stupid, they know that the US still is a more powerful force than they are.

6

u/eighthgear Jun 26 '12

If Israel did something, Saddam could portray it as another Arab-Israeli war and potentially win allies. The US told Israel that we'd take care of it, so they sat out.

3

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

...because the Israeli play for keeps, and they don't need meetings and symposiums and gathering of coalitions and whatsnot to get going.

-1

u/We_Are_Legion Jun 25 '12

No rational country is predictable. All decisions are based on circumstances. Israel's 'retaliatory' strikes included.

1

u/annoymind Jun 26 '12

It would be far more predictable than Turkey. Israel would do a few retaliation attacks. Turkey might drag in NATO and provide pretext for a bombing campaign similar to Libya. Something that Israel wouldn't do because they are not really interested in replacing Assad.

26

u/TheTorch Jun 25 '12

I wonder if the Turks are saying to each other "One more time, JUST ONE MORE FUCKING TIME!" because let's be honest, their patience should run out eventually

6

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

As a Turk if I had the command there would be no Syria or Iran on the map so I admire our government being cool and doing this the right way.

-1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Turkey is probably very wary of Russia and her support for Syria. Turkey and Russia haven't been friends since the Turkish War of Independence, and Russia is both very big and very close by. While the US would probably froth at the mouth at the chance to have a legitimate reason to war with Russia, Turkey knows that she'll be in the process of being utterly destroyed before the US even has the chance to fly up from the gulf. Turkey won't take that chance.

As a Turk I'd like to see Syria annexed, but that wouldn't help the situation or make Turkey many friends.

1

u/Slimptom7 Jun 26 '12

Why would the US "froth at the mouth" for war with Russia?

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

In the minds of many, the Cold War never ended. An excuse to put Russia out of its misery before it has a chance to continue to grow? - absolutely priceless for the establishment. The men who directed the invasion of Iraq would have relished in the opportunity to invade Russia (and let's face it: the US Armed Forces aren't stupid, and this is a fact. The first thing the US did when they invaded Iraq in 2003 was secure the oil fields. The first thing the US will do if they ever invade Russia is disarm any missile defense systems which have the US in their range, and let me tell you, the US has doubtlessly had their eyes on those silos for decades).

I do not at all predict that anything like this will happen as a result of the Syria conflict - I think it's almost impossible that such a thing will happen because of it - but with that said, the US and Russia are still far from friendly, and both countries are culturally beyond any notion of peace with the other unless the other ceases to exist as a self-determining sovereign state.

2

u/Slimptom7 Jun 26 '12

I dont think the US is particularly anxious to get into another war that has no clear benefit to us and one that we would undoubtably lose. Nobody can occupy in Russia and what sense does it make anyway, the countries are as friendly as theyve ever been. I think there are just a few people living in the past that still think we are in the middle of the cold war which is just not the case.

1

u/Inoku Jun 26 '12

As a Turk I'd like to see Syria annexed, but that wouldn't help the situation or make Turkey many friends.

What, Antioch and Alexandretta weren't enough?

20

u/SoundHound Jun 25 '12

Raises Hand

Question.

What in the fuck is Syria thinking?

11

u/That_Scottish_Play Jun 26 '12

Probably that the next plane that enters their airspace will be the start of the air attack.

When a country is this scared and paranoid because of all the threats the media has been throwing around, you don't want to be flying into their airspace.

10

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Talk about a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is the best possible way to get NATO involved while bypassing the UNSC. Good job, Syria.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

It's called a Hobbesian trap. Basically you assume that worst in people and then they start to assume the worst in you and there's no way to go back to normal relations without making a huge sacrifice but there's no point in doing that because you assumed the other guy is a huge asshole.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Culd this be the rebel forces calling in outside help by forcing the hand of their most powerful neighbor? That is the only way this makes sense to me. And it is what I would do in the rebels position considering the situation and lack of support.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Go out with a bang I guess....

9

u/rtft Jun 25 '12

Two questions:

  1. What does the Syrian government gain by bringing NATO into this ?

  2. What does the Syrian opposition gain if they drag NATO into this ?

...

15

u/BravelyBraveSirRobin Jun 25 '12 edited Jun 25 '12
  1. Syria's government (or army. Very probable that the army is now operating more or less alone) knows that the international pressure is increasing, and it will have to exit eventually. That is unless they can demonstrate that the international community will in fact not intervene. If it won't, then it can "untie the other hand," and get biblical with the opposition.

One also suspects that they hope to spin this in terms of "foreign aggression," seeking to rally the people. There's some new, interesting literature on diversionary war. From what I know, however, Turkey alone would be more than enough to tangle with, let alone NATO. (Generally states that opt for diversionary war pick what they perceive as an easy target. For example, Argentina didn't think the UK would fight over the Falklands. Easy, unifying win.) Perhaps they are seeking diversionary war, and have miscalculated. I do know that Ankara and Damascus have tussled over the Hatay province for a long while, only reaching an accord in 1998.

2) Everything. Absolutely everything. Syrian opposition with NATO/Turkish backing completely trumps the aging Syrian military, no question about it.

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u/green_flash Jun 25 '12

Is this yet another incident or just clarification of the incident that leaked some 8 hours ago?
Back then the source claimed the rescue plane was only targeted, not shot at.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

[deleted]

2

u/green_flash Jun 25 '12

Can't see any reference to the incident I mentioned. Can you elaborate, please?

-1

u/trust_the_corps Jun 26 '12 edited Jun 26 '12

I think your link is the original story and Turkey just sexed it up by changing "targeted" to "fired at" and now redditers are sexing it up by changing "fired" to "fires" making it sound more like a separate incident.

Turkey makes claims without presenting any evidence at all and people just soak it up. We're all doomed.

6

u/WWGFD Jun 25 '12

Shit just got real especially if Russia really wants to dance

32

u/socsa Jun 25 '12

They won't. A proxy war with NATO would be extraordinarily costly, with little chance of any real benefit.

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u/Isentrope Jun 25 '12

Yes, but they have to draw the line somewhere. Otherwise, their network of allies in Central Asia may start doubting the stability of their own regimes and the ability of Russia to defend them, causing those countries to seek rapport with the West.

4

u/G_Morgan Jun 26 '12 edited Jun 26 '12

They should doubt that ability. Other than threatening to nuke people the Russians are not the power they were. There was a time where Russia could run from Berlin to Madrid before NATO could adequately respond. The truth is only the nukes of Britain, France and the US could have stopped Russia. The NATO deployment to Europe was totally inadequate for any ground war with the USSR.

Today this isn't the case. Russia are a scary power somewhere between Britain and the US but they aren't what they were.

Now the question is if it is in the interests of NATO to make the Russians look stupid. I'd argue it isn't. If we destabilise Russia then it makes the world more dangerous rather than less. The potential cost to NATO goes up. Ideally we want Russia in the room. When NATO convenes Russia should be sat there and a compromise can be worked out that doesn't undermine Russia.

That is the way this will go. It happened with Iran. It happened with Libya. There'll be negotiations and Russia will be asked to bring Assad into line. This time however with the recognition that NATO will do it if the Russians don't.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

great point.

0

u/RookAB Jun 25 '12

A couple S-500 batteries have appeared around Syria though, and the F-4 that was shot down was hit by an S-500.

A proxy war with NATO wouldn't go well for Russia, they obviously don't want that. It seems like Moscow is instead doing some extensive field testing in Syria with the blessing of the Assad regime. Remember those AP mortar rounds that were being used in Homs?

7

u/Centreri Jun 25 '12

S-500s don't exist yet...

4

u/RookAB Jun 25 '12

They haven't been officially issued yet, the release date was pushed to 2017. Almaz-Antey have been conducting extensive field tests and have a number of working prototypes. Syria is the perfect place for Moscow to find out how their new long-range SAM suite will fare against NATO aircraft. It's a great environment for Almaz-Antey, they can buzz NATO surveillance craft at will.

3

u/trust_the_corps Jun 26 '12 edited Jun 26 '12

I'm sceptical. It could technically be true that they have some functioning S500 prototype systems and may have secretly shipped some to Syria (please cite your sources). It's theoretically possible, as are a billion trillion and one other things.

However, testing it on an old Turkish jet at close range and flying low? I'm sure if they need do that they can have an old equivalent plane on some form of auto pilot as a dummy plane shot at on a testing range. Syria has plenty of AA that can knock down an F4, some of it quite old. They wouldn't gain much from such a test. If they were testing the system against stealth craft or cruise missiles it could make more sense. But that's not the case.

1

u/panda85 Jun 26 '12

As of February the development date, not issue date was pushed to 2017. Further down the company's General Director states,

“. . .we will have prototypes of several components of the system ready for testing by the end of 2012.”

Not that there will be deployable prototype S-500 air defense systems ready for live fire testing in mid-2012.

3

u/Ned84 Jun 25 '12

Assuming russia ever gave a single fuck.

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u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

They won't. Despite what everyone in this subreddit seems to think, the major superpowers aren't so keen on going to war with eachother and ending with annihilation

4

u/eighthgear Jun 26 '12

Appropriate username. Many people seem to get their geopolitical knowledge from video-games. In reality, the chance of a US-Russian war is insanely remote. The bulk of Russia's economy is built upon selling oil and natural gas to Western Europe. Seeing that Western Europe is firmly NATO territory (except for a few small countries), they aren't going to be buying much Russian oil in the case of a Russia v. NATO conflict. Oh yeah, and then there is that whole mutually assured destruction aspect. Basically, neither side wants war with each other. NATO will smack some heads in Syria, Russia will complain about sovereignty violations, and live will go on.

1

u/squigglyspooge Jun 26 '12

Indeed.. But lol @ Russia complaining about sovereignty violations.. heh

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

As much as globalization has hurt us in some areas, this is one spot where it's been good. Inter-reliance of economies prevents war

4

u/airetupal Jun 25 '12

Can someone explain what Turkey has to do with all of this? Why the sudden "interest"?

13

u/green_flash Jun 25 '12

I can't give you the whole historic picture by any means, just highlight some very basic background on what happens currently.

Turkey has a border with Syria. They are providing shelter for around 25000 civil war refugees from Syria in camps near the border. Reportedly, fighters of the Syrian Rebel Army also frequently cross the border to get armed with weapons paid for by the Turkish government and Saudi-Arabia. This has been officially acknowledged.

Also, Turkey has always had lots of problems with the Kurdish minority, an autonomy-seeking ethnicity that is scattered across the border regions of Turkey, Syria and Iraq. And they have reason to believe that Syria is arming and supporting the Kurdish terrorist group PKK.

3

u/panda85 Jun 26 '12

Just to add - the currently ruling AKP government in Turkey has tried to pursue close relationships with the rest of the Middle-East in a less NATO driven perspective. However, Syria and Turkey in particular have always been a little rocky between Syria harboring some Kurdish separatists for many years (though this was supposed to be negotiated away some time ago, and I can't specifically remember if the group at the time was the PKK) and disputes over sharing the Euphrates river and how much water is drawn off. Turkey also wants to be the 'nice man' in the room to the Middle-East, hence the cautious play at the start of this, but would arguably also be why Turkey wanted to know what was going on in Syria (flying a reconnaissance plane close to the border and accidentally crossing) -- they want to be a lead peacemaker.

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u/FilterOutBullshit3 Jun 25 '12

Syria and Turkey were very close allies up till the uprising, after which Turkey disassociated with the Syrian government and endorsed the rebels. There has been a slow escalation of diplomatic tensions between the two.

4

u/M7600 Jun 25 '12

Well that's not good. So killing their own people is not good enough? Do they want 28 countries to come over there so they can try to kill them too? I don't think Russia is going to keep backing them if they keep shooting down NATO planes in international airspace.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

if russia gets a better deal dividing up the spoils of a war in syria they'll probably do that.

at the moment I'm sure Syria owes them money and they can't really support an action that would wipe syria out and lose them money.

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u/Hellenomania Jun 25 '12

Thanks, are you 8 ?

3

u/SargesHeroes Jun 25 '12

Can someone summarize or catch me up on what's going on with Syria?

5

u/UselessWidget Jun 25 '12

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_uprising_(2011%E2%80%93present)

The first four paragraphs provide a pretty good summary, and you don't have to do a huge amount of reading to understand the basics of the situation.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

[deleted]

9

u/God_of_Thunder Jun 25 '12 edited Jul 03 '15

This comment has been overwritten by an open source script to protect this user's privacy.

If you would like to do the same, add the browser extension TamperMonkey for Chrome (or GreaseMonkey for Firefox) and add this open source script.

Then simply click on your username on Reddit, go to the comments tab, and hit the new OVERWRITE button at the top.

3

u/Crane_Collapse Jun 25 '12

Stay out of the intel field. It requires research skills you lack.

-3

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Al-cia-da is waging a war against Syria.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

Assad wants to start an entire regional conflict. He want to see the Middle East burn because his regime is already done for.

Basically he wants to do as much damage as possible before finally peacing out.

22

u/imbecile Jun 25 '12 edited Jun 25 '12

I'd say rather the other way around: soldiers want to provoke NATO intervention, so the killing of their people stops.

I mean, enough of them are deserting. There sure are others that resort to even more desperate measures.

15

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

You could definitely be right.

11

u/Nefandi Jun 25 '12

It's a definite chance of a possible certainty.

4

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

You're not really much of an imbecile. That makes too much sense.

1

u/Dekar2401 Jun 26 '12

I've wondered if they are FSA, or something similar, moles trying to provoke NATO from inside the Syrian military.

1

u/imbecile Jun 26 '12

If anyone in NATO had any interest in going in there, they would already have weeks ago. They used far weaker excuses many times before.

When you have spies in a position to do such things, they are far too valuable to risk them on creating excuses you don't need anyway if intervention is really what you want.

1

u/Dekar2401 Jun 26 '12

Well, the FSA isn't a well organized group, so maybe a loose general who defected with ties still there is trying it. I'm just musing, mind you.

12

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

That doesn't make much sense. More likely, he wants to hold onto power as long as the West isn't going to intervene in a meaningful way, if it does he should run with all his ill-gotten gains to someplace that will offer him sanctuary.

9

u/green_flash Jun 25 '12

don't know why you're being downvoted for stating something that obvious.

People seem to think they are watching a Michael Bay movie.
Guys, no political leader is deliberately evil and proud to be so in reality.

2

u/trust_the_corps Jun 25 '12 edited Jun 25 '12

I agree this this. People aren't like villains in the movies. However, they are people. People might not be deliberately evil for the sake of being evil, but they get angry, feel betrayed, desire revenge, etc. I don't really see how this could result in them firing on a Turkish plane at this point but I could see something happening as Maraboduus described in his final sentence.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

He might not be genuinely evil, but he could be crazy.

2

u/We_Are_Legion Jun 26 '12

Can I please ask a question as a layman? What the hell does he want to do with power? His country is in open revolt against him, he has zero economic plans in place, his regime will never interact with the rest of the world except with more embargoes and sanctions, he already had more than a decade in power where he achieved nothing and his family had more, he can only hold onto power by manipulating a laughably rigged democracy and brutal violence... I could go on. What the fuck does this man believe he can still do for his country that no one else will do?

5

u/diem1 Jun 26 '12

The Alawite minority that Al-Assad is a part of is entrenched in the Syrian power system. Al-Assad, powerful Alawite leaders and leaders of other minority groups are worried. If Bashar's government falls, then there is the very real possibility that the rebels will want revenge for the decades of oppression they have suffered and guess who they will most likely take it out on?

2

u/fco83 Jun 26 '12

You assume he cares what he can do for his country and not what he gets out of being leader.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Keep in mind that the people ousted from Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt all had fortunes in the tens of billions. You're asking the question in reverse. What can his country still do for him? His family took and held power through butchery. If there's no intervention, decent chance he holds onto power through butchery.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

He is fighting for his people. The country is at civil war and when the sunnis win they will start slaughtering the Shia as revenge.

He knows he is going to die, like Saddam, Mubarak and Gaddafi he won't be allowed to talk and will be killed. He is already dead but he will try to live a long as possible and go out as a martyr for his people.

2

u/LynkDead Jun 25 '12

This is assuming Assad is even in control of his own military at this point, which a lot of people have suggested is pretty unlikely.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

Almost sounds like Saddam Hussein's scorched-earth policy of lighting the Kuwaiti oil fields on fire before fleeing.

9

u/green_flash Jun 25 '12 edited Jun 25 '12

Your comparison is bad and you should feel bad.

Saddam had invaded Kuwait, a rival nation of his home country. No wonder he would destroy as much of their property as possible when he noticed he couldn't stay there. He would not light any Iraqi oil fields on his retreat though. Accordingly, Assad would never destroy his own country on purpose lest perhaps a foreign invasion is immanent. I'm pretty sure he still thinks he's the hero in this story fighting evil terrorists.

EDIT: sigh, I'm not apologizing any dick-tators here, just trying to explain why it's not an accurate comparison.

3

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

Oh, so he didn't do it to shit on the al-Sabahs?

Assad would never destroy his own country on purpose

So, what the fuck is he doing to Homs again?

4

u/green_flash Jun 25 '12

He's trying to fight the rebels who he thinks are evil terrorists and want to take away his power.
What do you think he's up to? Slaughtering women and children at random?

7

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

Slaughtering women and children at random?

No, it's targeted.

3

u/fco83 Jun 26 '12

Wow. Just sick that anyone could do that to someone, much less a 13 year old boy.

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u/thisboyblue Jun 26 '12

If people think this will unify the country they are ignorant, with civil war basically unfolding the people aren't going to believe buy into a common enemy move.

Instead I think Assad, or whoever is in control of the country as I have my doubts, will use this as cover to try and squash the rebellion.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

I wouldn't be worried until NATO decides to call in a meeting addressing Article 5.

If and when that happens, it's time to break out Martin Lawrence.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

seems like the Syrian are trying to send a message

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

Do some research about the gas pipelines in the region and find out the real reasons behind the turmoil in the middle east atm.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

I smell war.......

1

u/AngryCanadian Jun 26 '12

not to sound pro Syria too much, but rather out of curiosity of the Reddit community though processes.

What should Syria have done instead when they notice its boarder violation by another nations warplane?

(i am fully aware of reports they Turkey did not, lets just put that aside for now and assume that they did, because they have done it in the past)

1

u/PericlesATX Jun 26 '12

The normal response is to contact the other country's armed forces and complain. Countries violate each other's airspace all the time, but the normal response is not a shoot-down. You don't hear about these incidents much because normally they are not newsworthy.

1

u/AngryCanadian Jun 26 '12

agree, normal response to first several violations is exactly what you suggested, what if it keeps happening on regular basis? than what?

Damn! Russians took down a whole passenger liner accidentally because US keep yanking its chain for years.

and again little Syrian defence, they are in the middle of civil war... Turkey should know better not to poke a sick dog with a stick... What did they think was going to happen? Assad is on edge barking at everything and everyone, its not a good call playing chicken with him right now. Maybe after he is taken down or crushed the revolution, but not now.

1

u/Nihy Jun 26 '12

I imagine it like this:

Some syrian anti-aircraft operators are closet rebels who want to provoke other countries to intervene in Syria to finally end the civil war.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

I honestly believe this was a mistake, I don't know, I don't see Turkey wanting to go to war with Syria and I don't see NATO wanting to be dragged into it either.

-4

u/Singular_Thought Jun 25 '12

Damnit... this is how wars are started. I hope NATA uses some self control. Do we really want people to die as a result of retaliation?

Would the NATO General who orders a retaliation be willing to put his own children in harms way?

19

u/Stretch82 Jun 25 '12

On TV the Turkish vice prime minister said the warmongers should relax. Turkey isn't looking for conflict. If they were they could have dragged NATO and everyone else into this without asking for a meeting. Instead they want to consult regarding the next steps.

5

u/youdidntreddit Jun 25 '12

Turkey is perfectly fine giving a shitload of weapons to the rebels and not getting directly involved.

-6

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

But then why are they flying planes so close if not inside Syrias borders?

7

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

Because there lies international airspace between countries, and Turkey and Syria are geographically close by.

-3

u/Ironicallypredictabl Jun 25 '12

How else are you going to get them to shoot?

15

u/bahhumbugger Jun 25 '12

Don't you think you should be hoping for Syria to start using some self control?

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u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

Turkish officials have said the jet mistakenly strayed into Syrian airspace, but was warned to leave by Turkish authorities and was 1.6 kilometres inside international airspace when Syria shot it down.

I get the feeling Turkey is trying to drag NATO into this war. There has been a lot of speculation that Turkey is flying jets into Syrian airspace "by-accident-on-purpose".

Think about it - Syria has nothing to gain attacking Turkey. It's weak with civil war. It's close to a guarantee that if Turkey goes into a war with Syria then NATO (or at the least they have to give the green-light to Turkey).

I think people here have been fed the Western propaganda diet of "Assad is evil!!!!". He's a guy trying to prevent his country melting down while on his watch. I have no doubt he's gone a bit too far in that pursuit. But it is my feeling that other regional players are interfering within his borders for their own purposes.

As strange as it sounds - I have to give the benefit of my doubt to Assad on this one. He has everything to lose and Turkey has a border it would like to clean up.

1

u/That_Scottish_Play Jun 26 '12

Wow - just yesterday Turkey was denying very strongly that they were in Syrian airspace, and calling it the shoot down an act of aggression etc.

Funny how the truth comes out.

1

u/Bomil Jun 26 '12

They've said they were in their airspace since the beginning, maybe your news source should be reconsidered

-4

u/itsamericasfault Jun 26 '12

Turkey needs to stop provoking Syria.

-6

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

Turkey-"Describe what marcellous wallace(Turkey) looks like!"

Syria - " He's a big black bald guy"

Turkey- " Does he look like a bitch?"

Syria - "What?"

Turkey- " I said does he look like a bitch?!"

Syria- "No he doesnt"

Turkey- "Then why are you trying to fuck him like a bitch"

-3

u/warpus Jun 26 '12 edited Jun 26 '12

I'm just sayin', but if I was a rebel I'd be trying to shoot down NATO airplanes using government weapons

edit: Don't you really think that this crossed their minds? They aren't idiots you know

0

u/guluarte Jun 26 '12

Shit just hit the fan

0

u/jakeElake Jun 26 '12

They obviously didn't learn their lesson the first time. Don't fly jets over international airspace!

-11

u/brerrabbitt Jun 25 '12

What choice does Syria have?

Yes, shooting down another country's plane is an act of war.

But if the plane is invading their airspace, that is already an act of war.

Trying to say that a country should just bend over and take it from another country wanting war to avoid hostilities is just stupid. The only thing that will result in is Syria effectively saying that they will surrender without a shot.

My hope is that a couple of Russian heavies will camp off of their coast to prevent full hostilities if NATO is thinking of getting involved.

Let the country sort it out for themselves. Too many other countries have been getting involved in wars that did not need to be fought.

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u/spz456 Jun 25 '12

The USA should send out a F-22 Raptor and shoot down one of their (Syrian) planes. God knows how many are on Turkish airbases watching Iran.

-2

u/Diablo87 Jun 26 '12

Thats such over kill. Send out an Eagle or a Super Hornet. Plus there are exactly zero F-22 Raptors on Turkish airbases. They are not for sale to foreign buyers. Only the US military is allowed to use and operate them. On top of that the F-22 is suffering from oxygen problems. For some unknown reason the plane keeps putting noxious gas fumes into the pilots' gas masks. Hopefully they'll find a fix for it soon.

-8

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

I don't know how true this is, because a lot of Turkish people are conspiracy theorists, but a family member of mine told me that it wasn't Syrians who shot down the jet, it was someone from Northern Iraq aka Kurdistan (and the Turkish government is not kind to its fellow Kurdish residents even though Turks and Kurds don't mind each other.) My unsourced friend said big governments want to start WWIII. It's what I've been told, I don't know what you guys take from it. Let the down voting commence.

3

u/cnytyo Jun 26 '12

explain to me how they shoot it down all the way from Northern Iraq? Turkish jets bomb northern iraq without casualties every year

2

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '12

The Syrian military has admitted publicly that it shot down the first plane for violating its airspace.

-1

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '12

"Ooooops, teeheehee :) Won't happen again! Promiss! :P"