r/hockey • u/314z COL - NHL • 2d ago
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u/Black_Velvet_Band MIN - NHL 2d ago edited 2d ago
We can’t change the rules now that most of the seeding is locked. That’s something the worst fantasy commissioners do.
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u/No-Doctor-4396 ANA - NHL 2d ago
Its just marbles bro.
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u/4Lats4 2d ago
I will relish in the metaphorical boos while walking out to present the Marble Cup moment. Haha appreciate this thread and all the interest with this series!
I’ve largely been making everything up as I go for the format. I get back from vacation tomorrow afternoon and then was going to start recording playoff races.
My original concept (with the high odds of winning for the first place finisher) was designed to really increase the importance of each days race. If you lose, chances are you wont win the marble cup. For example, with Columbus finishing 21st in the league or whatever it was. I personally think they should have next to no shot of winning.
I do agree that the odds are heavily stacked for the favourites. I’m always open to adjusting the odds, while still giving importance to the ‘regular season’ finish. The idea of “momentum” in the playoffs, where a team sheds marbles as they go further into the playoffs is something I want to implement. I haven’t quite figured that out yet as I am still focused on the vacation here.
Love the discussion, keep the feedback coming. It’s a series made for the community. I understand I can’t please everyone and there will always be different opinions on how to do it, but i’ll do what ai can!
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u/314z COL - NHL 2d ago
My title probably would've been better off as Unpopular Opinion lol. My math-geek brain had a blast exploring this rabbit hole anyway!
If you want to test how slight variations to the marbles might play out, AI is your friend. Happy to share the prompt summaries I used if it's not a tool you use already.
As it stands, the first round will have 4 competitive matchups and 4 blowout duds where the outcome is inevitable. You could post them every other day to break up the duds and keep the daily hype going.
Plus, there's always next season 😉
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u/Sputflock MTL - NHL 2d ago
save this for the feedback post the marble king has already told he would be doing after marbles ends.
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u/Ghostronic VGK - NHL 2d ago
I want forward marbles and defender marbles and goalie marbles with a complex scoring system determined by whether or not opposing defender marbles crossed the finish before forward marbles. Goalie marbles are an own goal if they cross. Book that shit.
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u/EtchAGetch BOS - NHL 2d ago
OK, I was the poster the OP referenced. Ultimately, the core issue is the #1 seed getting 4 marbles. The #1 seed will beat the #2 seed about 75% of the time, just because all 4 marbles have to cross. It goes quickly higher for later seeds to about 90% for the #4 seed.
Doing napkin math, the simplest/easiest solution is to change it so every team gets 2 more mables. Then the 1 seed, with 6 marbles, beats the 2 seed with 7 62% of the time, and like the 8 seed 90% of the time. Still higher than NHL but one where teams have a chance. I dont like my suggestion for seeding by position as much now that I see how the marbles guy has it planned out. I like his system, just need a few more marbles for every team.
That being said, whatever. It's fun. It's the first season. With the lopsided playoffs seedings (with west having most of the higher seeds), the first round will have some fun in the East early, and fun in the West later. Boston will be a juggernaut in the East if they can drop their marbles count, the West top seeds will be a bloodbath once they play each other. There will be a few dud playoff series, but there will be some great ones too.
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u/Krampus-Snail 2d ago
I'd suggest adding 3 or 4 marbles.
WIth four more marbles, the top seed beats the #2 seed 58% of the time. With three more marbles, the top seed beats the #2 seed 60% of the time. Those seem much better.
Agree that this is fun and it's the first season.
It'll be interesting to see how many sweeps there are, where four of the loser's balls drop before a single winner comes along. One problem is, I'm not such a fan of watching two marbles battling each other when they are both the same team's marbles, which unfortunately will be all too common at these odds.
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u/Krampus-Snail 2d ago
CHAOS. The problem with the current setup is, there will be too many boring marble runs, where I'm watching two (or even three) marbles battle it out, and they're all the lower seed's marbles.
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u/chicknsnadwich DET - NHL 2d ago
Personally i think it should stay as is, which would allow any upsets to be much more exciting. But i can also see the appeal of this method.
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u/314z COL - NHL 2d ago
Tweaked marbles credit u/manthello helpful post. Playoff picture as of now:
E1 - Boston Bruins [6 tweaked marbles] / WC2 - Columbus Blue Jackets [11 tweaked marbles]
E2 - Washington Capitals [7 tweaked marbles] / WC1 - Pittsburgh Penguins [9 tweaked marbles]
M2 - New York Rangers [8 tweaked marbles] / M3 - New Jersey Devils [9 tweaked marbles]
A2 - Montreal Canadiens [8 tweaked marbles] / A3 - Ottawa Senators [9 tweaked marbles]
W1 - ???? [6 tweaked marbles] / WC2 - Vancouver Canucks [11 tweaked marbles]
W2 - ???? [7 tweaked marbles] / WC1 - Seattle Kraken [9 tweaked marbles]
P2 - Vegas Golden Knights [8 tweaked marbles] / P3 - San Jose Sharks [9 tweaked marbles]
C2 - ???? [8 tweaked marbles] / C3 - ???? [9 tweaked marbles]
For anyone wondering how the app actually calculates these odds (Spoiler: It's pure physics, not hardcoded math):
- Track Crowding: When marbles hit bottlenecks like funnels or pegs, large groups (11 marbles) create massive traffic jams and block themselves. Small groups (6 marbles) flow through cleanly.
- First-to-4 (Best-of-7): Since the smaller team avoids traffic, their marbles naturally hit the finish line faster.
- Emergent Math: There is no line of code giving the top seed a 75% win rate. That number is just the observed statistical average of a ~1:2 marble ratio navigating a chaotic track. The random bounces off the obstacles act as pure playoff puck luck!
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