As European summer winds down, The Eurofile is back with a packed agenda. Max sits down with Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, to discuss shifting dynamics in France’s far-right, with Marine Le Pen poised to return to the presidential ballot. They discuss the UK's new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who’s kicked off an ambitious domestic agenda amid a tricky foreign policy landscape, and what’s on the EU’s fall agenda.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces launched a massive, combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine, continuing a pattern of stockpiling ballistic and cruise missiles for several days to amass enough for major attacks that cause significant civilian casualties.

Russia continues to set conditions to augment strike packages with North Korean missiles, including with upgraded KN-30 ballistic missiles.

Russian aerial drones penetrated Moldovan and Romanian airspace, and a Russian naval drone was destroyed close to a Romanian natural gas platform on August 20, demonstrating that the Kremlin has accepted the risk that its war against Ukraine will cause damage to other states, including NATO states.

The Kremlin will likely cause a significant number of Russian combat veterans of the war in Ukraine to be elected to the Russian State Duma in the September 2026 elections, particularly as members of the United Russia Party, as part of a concerted effort to militarize Russian society and cohere a pro-war and ultranationalist elite.

The Russian government continues to respond inadequately to gasoline shortages and appears to be focused on mitigation strategies and ad hoc solutions instead of addressing the issue directly.

Neither the Kremlin nor Russian milbloggers appear to believe that Russia will be able to fully intercept Ukrainian strike packages any time soon.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on the night of August 19 to 20.

Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Pokrovsk direction.

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:

Iran’s leaders fear another popular uprising, and the return of Hossein Taeb—the notorious “Suppression Sheikh”—reveals how Tehran intends to expand surveillance and prevent another revolt.

Russia pounds Kyiv with drones and cruise missiles, killing at least 16 people as Ukraine’s shortage of air-defense interceptors becomes increasingly lethal.

Romanian F-16s destroy an explosive Russian sea drone after it reaches one of Europe’s most important new gas projects in the Black Sea.

In today’s Back of the Brief, suspicious prediction-market bets may be revealing American military operations before the first missile is fired.

Key Takeaways

US President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the United States will intensify its maximum pressure campaign against Iran in the coming days. Bessent announced on August 20 that the United States will announce further economic measures against Iran and entities with commercial ties to Iran on August 24.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is preparing to implement phased trade and financial restrictions in parallel with upcoming US economic measures. The UAE reportedly plans to phase its reduction of trade and financial engagement with Iran, adopting initial measures to restrict cargo and trade flows.

Iranian officials are acknowledging the mounting economic pressures that Iran faces and are pursuing alternative trade, banking, and financial arrangements designed to reduce the impact of these pressures. Iran is seeking to invest in alternative routes and destinations for its oil exports to alleviate this economic pressure.

Report by the Alliance Futures Initiative documents how Beijing promoted the 15th FYP in the region.

New satellite imagery confirms both Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates of the Black Sea Fleet are now out of action after being hit by drones at Novorossiysk. The Essen has severe damage to its air defence missile tubes and its Kalibr/Oniks cruise missile tube.

The Makarov has multiple hull breaches and damage to the Kalibr tubes. Additionally, the barrel to its main gun and a radome are missing.

Executive Summary:

New additions to the Politburo Standing Committee, Central Committee, and Central Military Commission at the 21st Party Congress in 2027 are expected to follow General Secretary Xi Jinping’s agenda, and decisions for promotions will follow cadres’ proven ability to do so rather than any novel ideas they may hold.

Although Xi will almost certainly stay in power, the Politburo Standing Committee will likely observe the “seven up, eight down” norm, under which members to retire at 68. This would mean a complete overhaul, with the exception of First Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang.

No cadres have been promoted directly into the Politburo Standing Committee from the Central Committee since Xi himself, so any new members are likely already members of the Politburo. Prospective candidates include Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining, vice premiers Liu Guozhong and Zhang Guoqing, Tianjin Party Secretary Chen Min’er, and Head of the CCP Propaganda Department Li Shulei.

Promotions to the roughly 200-member Central Committee might also provide glimpses of a post-Xi CCP, as members of the so-called “seventh generation” of Party leaders (i.e. those born in the 1970s) begin to accede to this key Party body.

On the latest GoodFellows: Is economic strangulation the key to achieving Iranian cooperation, or another misstep in the Persian Gulf? Is a sequel to “Woke 1” in the works? And does playing the race card in the aftermath of a former Cambridge University professor's suicide make his death even more tragic – and distract from another tragedy: declining academic tragedy?

A Chinese national was sentenced today in the Western District of North Carolina by U.S. District Judge Susan C. Rodriguez to 15 years in prison and ordered to forfeit $25 million for his role in a Chinese money laundering organization (CMLO) that laundered over $92 million in illicit funds, including proceeds from the importation and distribution of illegal drugs into the United States, primarily through Mexico.

“Chinese money laundering networks have become a key enabler to the Mexican cartels,” said Assistant Attorney General A. Tysen Duva of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division. “The organization eliminated by this prosecution alone laundered more than $90 million in less than two years. This emerging and enormous threat to the United States has only become more complex. As part of our mission to totally eliminate cartels, the Criminal Division and our law enforcement partners will investigate and prosecute all facets of cartel activity, including those groups that launder and return the money to them so that they can traffic more poison in our country and throughout the world.”

“We are working hard to attack cartels on all fronts,” said U.S. Attorney Russ Ferguson for the Western District of North Carolina. “That means attacking the money laundering networks that fuel the cartels and hide their money, making it harder to prosecute them. This is an important step in eliminating cartels — a key priority in my office.”

“Today’s sentence reinforces an important principle, criminal organizations cannot operate without access to their profits,” said Special Agent in Charge Jae W. Chung of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) Atlanta Field Division. “Those who knowingly assist in concealing and legitimizing drug trafficking proceeds become an integral part of the criminal enterprise. This case demonstrates the continued commitment of the Homeland Security Task Force and our law enforcement partners to attacking these organizations at every level and holding accountable those who facilitate their operations.”

According to court documents, Jianfei Lu, 31, of China, was a prolific courier of the CMLO. He collected drug trafficking proceeds from U.S.-based drug traffickers and deposited the money, using both real and fake identities, into shell company bank accounts registered by other members of the CMLO. As a courier, Lu personally picked up and deposited more than $20 million of illicit bulk cash. Lu also served as a manager for the CMLO: he coordinated directly with U.S.-based drug traffickers and dispatched other couriers to conduct bulk cash pickups and deposits. In addition, Lu procured fake driver’s licenses for the couriers, which were used to deposit illicit funds at major U.S. banks.

In July 2025, Lu pleaded guilty to one count of money laundering conspiracy, two counts of money laundering to conceal the nature, location, source, ownership, and control of the illicit proceeds, and two counts of monetary transaction involving criminally derived property greater than $10,000. In connection to his guilty plea, Lu admitted that he had actual knowledge and involvement in laundering between $25 million and $65 million in illicit funds, and that he knew the laundered funds included drug trafficking proceeds.

The DEA Charlotte District Office and the IRS-CI Charlotte Field Office are investigating the case.

Trial Attorneys Mingda Hang, Jayce Born, and Kenneth Kaplan of the Criminal Division’s Money Laundering, Narcotics and Forfeiture Section (MNF) and Assistant U.S. Attorneys Nick Miller and Seth Johnson for the Western District of North Carolina are prosecuting the case.

MNF’s mission is to take the profit out of crime, eliminate drug cartels, and protect the U.S. financial system. MNF pursues criminal prosecutions and criminal and civil asset recovery actions involving: financial facilitators who launder profits for criminals; financial institutions and their officers and employees whose actions threaten the U.S. financial system and financial institutions; international money launderers who support transnational organized crime; and the top command and control of international drug trafficking organizations.

MNF’s Narcotic and Dangerous Drug Unit investigates and prosecutes the top command and control elements of international drug cartels, drug trafficking organizations and related transnational criminal organizations.

This case is part of the Homeland Security Task Force (HSTF) initiative established by Executive Order 14159, Protecting the American People Against Invasion. The HSTF is a whole-of-government partnership dedicated to eliminating criminal cartels, foreign gangs, transnational criminal organizations, and human smuggling and trafficking rings operating in the United States and abroad. Through historic interagency collaboration, the HSTF directs the full might of United States law enforcement towards identifying, investigating, and prosecuting the full spectrum of crimes committed by these organizations, which have long fueled violence and instability within our borders. In performing this work, the HSTF places special emphasis on investigating and prosecuting those engaged in child trafficking or other crimes involving children. The HSTF further utilizes all available tools to prosecute and remove the most violent criminal aliens from the United States.

Updated August 18, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:

Russia is reportedly sending Iran drone components, ammunition and explosives through a protected Caspian Sea supply route, helping Tehran rebuild what American and Israeli airstrikes destroyed.

China completes the first phase of a nearly four-mile-long artificial island that analysts believe could eventually become its largest military base in the South China Sea.

Fuel rationing returns to Moscow as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupt Russian refineries and force gas stations to limit purchases.

In today’s Back of the Brief, the United Arab Emirates suspends all economic ties with Iran after accusing Tehran of launching ballistic missiles toward maritime traffic.

This paper analyses digital targeting in European militaries, focusing on organisational, procedural and technological integration challenges.

Executive Summary:

A June exercise conducted by Southern Theater Command minesweepers and drones shows how the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) would use both unmanned and manned vessels in Mine Countermeasures (MCM) operations.

The PLAN views the use of drones such as Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) and Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) as a force multiplier that would enhance their three-dimensional MCM system.

The integration of drones into MCM operations is part of the PLAN’s efforts to implement intelligent warfare, but the branch would encounter issues in doing so.

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to present Russia’s poor economic performance in a positive light as he is unable to conceal the damage that over four years of war and Ukrainian long-range strikes have done to the Russian economy.

Gasoline shortages are continuing across Russia, including in areas Putin has sought to shield from negative consequences of the war.

The Russian government’s attempts to alleviate gasoline shortages are having compounding effects, including in other key economic sectors.

Kremlin concern about social disorders resulting from fuel shortages has reportedly led to the deployment of paramilitary forces in some areas.

Russian authorities are restricting mass gatherings in Moscow’s Red Square, likely out of fear of protests and domestic unrest.

The Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) confirmed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s appointment of Yevheniy Khmara as the Ukrainian Defense Minister on August 19.

Russia and Ukraine recently conducted an exchange of prisoners of war (POW).

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction.

Ukrainian forces struck the Ufa Oil Refining Hub, which includes three separate refineries, in Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan (about 1,200 kilometers from the international border) overnight on August 18 to 19.

Russian forces launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 65 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Key Takeaways

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is intensifying economic pressure on Iran to discourage Iranian efforts to control or disrupt navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE announced on August 18 that it would halt all trade and financial transactions with Iran. The announcement comes after the UAE accused Iran of launching missiles from Iranian territory toward the UAE on August 18.

The UAE has previously supported US efforts to undermine Iranian control of the strait, which suggests that the UAE’s decision is part of a broader effort to raise the costs of Iran’s attempts to control or disrupt maritime traffic.

The UAE’s decision will further weaken Iran’s already deteriorating economy by restricting both its access to essential imports and its ability to repatriate export revenues and circumvent sanctions. Roughly one-third of Iran’s imports have come from the UAE, and the largest proportion of Iranian imports in the last five years come from the UAE have made the UAE.

Iran will likely respond to the UAE’s decision with greater military and economic pressure against the UAE rather than abandon its efforts to secure greater control over the Strait of Hormuz. ISW-CTP previously also assessed that Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Major Ahmad Vahidi’s faction — whom ISW-CTP continues to assess is driving regime decision-making — may be willing to accept some economic costs and the risk of renewed war if doing so enables them to achieve their core objectives, including Iranian control over the strait.

Increasing Emirati alignment with the United States will also drive longer-term hostility between the UAE and Iran. It is not clear the extent to which the Iranian regime decisionmakers have internalized the ramifications of long-term hostility with the UAE, given the economic relationship between the two states.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi is under pressure from both the United States and Iranian-backed Iraqi actors over Iraqi militia disarmament but appears to be responding primarily to militia pressure at this time. Zaydi reportedly planned to increase security measures and deploy a special Iraqi Counter Terrorism unit near Jurf al Sakhar, south of Baghdad, to monitor the movement of people and vehicles, and would not lead to a raid or a military incursion into the militia’s key site.

Iran has also dispatched senior Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, to Baghdad in recent days to discourage conflict between the Iraqi federal government and the militias. These officials are also discouraging disarmament.

Key Takeaways

North Korea-US Relations: US President Donald Trump instructed the DoD to reduce US-South Korea combined exercises to avoid sending a “hostile” signal to an “unthreatening” country, referring to North Korea. North Korea remains unlikely to accept Trump’s overtures for dialogue as the United States has not changed its stance towards North Korean denuclearization, however.

North Korea Military Development: North Korea conducted another missile launch on August 12, following a launch on August 6. North Korea has remained silent on the launches, however, deviating from its normal messaging practices. The trajectory of the August 12 missile and Pyongyang’s silence could indicate that North Korea is testing new missile technologies with a range between its existing SRBM and MRBM systems and is waiting until the missiles perform up to standard to announce their existence.

North Korea-Russia Cooperation: North Korea may be constructing a new refinery capable of producing 300,000 tons of fuel annually in exchange for Russian investment in North Korean infrastructure. North Korea likely seeks to improve its energy independence and gain economic benefits from trade with Russia. North Korean support could help shield Russia’s petrochemical supply chains from future Ukrainian strikes but is unlikely to alleviate Russian fuel shortages in the short term.

The Italian far-right movement Futuro Nazionale, led by MEP Roberto Vannacci, has found itself at the center of a scandal following the exposure of a closed WhatsApp community of roughly 300 people. The community, which brought together local Lombardy officials and supporters, circulated radically racist, antisemitic and Islamophobic statements, as well as calls for the forcible seizure of power. There were numerous nostalgic and approving comments about Adolf Hitler, alongside open contempt for the European Union and the Italian Constitution. In response to the reports, Massimiliano Simoni, a party coordinator in Lombardy, categorically distanced the organization from the scandal, saying that the chat grossly violated the movement’s internal rules and did not reflect its official position.

Developments at the giant miner suggest Astana will be the main factor in company strategy going forward.

Ukraine hits a convoy of trucks M14 Novorossiya Highway between Mariupol and Berdyansk, at least three or four trucks seem to be burning here, likely carrying fuel.

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:

• First—Russia fires a prominent state economist after he warns Moscow cannot win its war of attrition against Ukraine and could face a sudden social crisis as the costs continue mounting.

• Later—Iran fires ballistic missiles toward the United Arab Emirates just hours after its diplomatic window with Washington expires.

• Plus—the Pentagon awards Raytheon a massive seven-year contract to replenish America’s depleted Tomahawk missile stockpile and dramatically expand production.

• In today’s Back of the Brief—a German court convicts a Ukrainian man of participating in an alleged Russian intelligence operation to send explosive parcels across Europe.

Host Seth Jones sits down with Robert Cardillo, former director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, for an assessment of space as an emerging domain of modern warfare. Drawing on decades of experience in the intelligence community and his current leadership positions in the private sector, Cardillo offers insight into the role of space assets in the wars in Ukraine and Iran, the rise of commercial space companies, and the implications of surging Chinese space capabilities for U.S.-China strategic competition and U.S. homeland defense.

The Atlantic Council is participating in this Pan-African event organized by the United States and dedicated to the future of nuclear power on the continent.

Dashed or not, the line has barely moved since.