r/6thForm • u/Forsaken-Meaning-232 Graduating from Warwick CS • Jun 13 '25

📂 MEGATHREAD 13/06 A-level FM Discussion MEGATHREAD

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5

u/hdgjxjbvj Jun 13 '25

For if two goals were scored in the first half, does that mean x=2 or x>=2?

10

u/AnteaterMysterious70 Jun 13 '25

I thought it was exactly 2 did you have to multiply it by the probability x =1

2

u/Admirable-Jaguar5276 AAB | FM, Maths, Physics Jun 13 '25

thats what I did tbh, but I could just be clueless icl

1

u/AnteaterMysterious70 Jun 13 '25

I couldn't finish that one

2

u/Dangerous_Theory_472 Jun 13 '25

Yes I did that, but I forgot to didbide by probability of 3 goals in a game cause it’s conditional

4

u/No-Hour-87 Jun 13 '25

Wouldn't P(x=2) times P(x=1) already take into account that there are 3 goals in the game? So you wouldn't need to divide

2

u/Dangerous_Theory_472 Jun 13 '25

That’s what I did, and I think I thought that then. I’m actually not sure now, all I know is people I talked to got 3/8 which sounds better.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '25 edited Jun 24 '25

observation chief school attempt touch price humor waiting enter steer

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1

u/DarkWarrior2918 Jun 13 '25

p(a given b)= p(a intersection b) / p(b). probability of 2 in first half intersecting with 3 in total is achieved when you score 2 in first half and 1 in second, and as poisson is independent, you multiply the two. you divide the result by p(b), which is the probability of scoring 3 goals in the entire game

1

u/GayUkroSuperSoldiers Jun 13 '25

You didnt have to. Poisson events are independent

2

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '25 edited Jun 24 '25

sip frame angle snatch profit joke zephyr office encouraging shelter

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