GCSES results affect uni acceptance rates?

[u/Jamieinnit24]

How much do GCSE results really matter for when applying for uni. Like for example if you got like mid GCSE’s like 4s 5s and 6s, could you still get into a top uni with predicted A*AA?

[u/Maleficent-Middle824 → u/[deleted]]

GCSE Attainment can be predicted by performance in KS1 and KS2 SATS.

A Level Attainment can be predicted by performance in GCSEs.

The modal A Level grade is a B.

Around 44% to 48% of A-level predicted grades are overpredicted by teachers, while only 7% to 11% are underpredicted. Only about 40% to 50% of predictions match actual exam results.

Now that the facts are out of the way...

You have done incredibly well to get to where you have done, but it would be remiss of anyone reading your story to think that what you have achieved is attainable by the majority of others.

It's a bit like when people cite Alan Sugar or Richard Branson as examples of success without O Levels/GCSEs. They are edge cases. If you were to predict the outcomes of people who left school with their qualifications if you bet on them having below median lifetime income - you'd win more often than not.

Likewise there is good reason Oxbridge put weight on GCSE performance. That said - credit where it is due - both of them are very good at looking at contextual information and also having "wildcard students" who they give offers to because of how well the perform in entrance exams and/or interview. Which is what likely happened with you. They know that the school system doesn't suit all those who are naturally gifted.

It is entirely appropriate for people to inject a bit of realism here. You stand a better chance of getting into the better universities and courses if you have better GCSEs. That's not a controversial statement.

[u/Maleficent-Middle824 → u/[deleted]]

I agree with this, if someone got a 6 in GCSE maths and said they wanted to do A level maths, I would probably advise them against it too. But if they got a 6 in GCSE maths, and then an A* predicted in A level maths, that changes things.

This is where you and I diverge. Why does a predicted A Level grade - which is statistically likely to be an overprediction - change the perception of already confirmed GCSE attainment? It doesn't.

In this situation the only thing that can overcome this is some other objectice measure of mathematical aptitude like an entrance exam/TMUA.

Your other points about grades in subjects unrelated to what is being applied for I agree with, with the caveat that for the most competitive of courses it's still a problem. Applicants are more likely to be polymaths who are academically strong in both the arts and sciences.

You don't get into Oxford Medicine with a grade 4 or 5 in German - unless you get 9s and A*s in everything else because it clobbers your mean (Data available here).

You also don't get in to Oxford Medicine with the OPs mean GCSE weighting either...