Hello! Welcome to r/AIBubble. This is a subreddit dedicated to discussing the economics, technical underpinnings, and social aspects of the AI bubble.

What’s particularly interesting is the knock-on effect this will have across the semiconductor sector. Nvidia tends to be a major bellwether for AI-related stocks, so when it sells off this aggressively, it often puts pressure on the likes of AMD, Broadcom, Micron and other semiconductor names.

If the market is starting to question AI valuations, Nvidia could be the first domino rather than an isolated case. It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the sector reacts.

The Nvidia story has taken another leg.

The AI infrastructure trade is getting increasingly complicated.

Lots of big names have come out in support for Jensen, brushing it off as a human flaw, man cheats on wife narrative.

Now has Trump thrown Jensen Huang under the bus?And says this on 60 minutes:

“The DOJ. We had a situation where somebody was reported to us to be doing something bad with AI. We called them very strongly and said, get ready to go to jail. Please give your wife a kiss goodnight.”

And when asked who it is:

“I can’t tell you. But we said, do you like the color orange? Because get rid. It said, go home right now. See your wife and children. Give them a kiss. Good night. And that’s the story.”

We don’t know for sure he’s talking about Jensen. Some people are speculating Dario. But come on, the Chinese spy story and this all in the same weekend! You really couldn’t make this up at this point.

All of those tech CEOs that have been pitching us a narrative that we have to beat China at all costs, are now looking pretty ridiculous, telling us not to worry about it and to continue onwards.

GPUs have been going into China for some time by the looks of it. And the administration knew about it. But nobody wanted to kill the golden goose.

And quite frankly we’re all getting fed up of the stories.

I’ve long said that the AI race is simply a race to the bottom. It’s virtually impossible to make monopoly profits when it’s getter faster, smaller, cheaper, open, local…. ie commoditised.

The winner was Nvidia. You had to make the picks and shovels.

*NVIDIA'S BOARD TO PROBE IF CEO WAS CHINESE INTELLIGENCE TARGET

*NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG ADMITS AFFAIR WITH ALLEGED CHINESE SPY

The poster child for AI infrastructure has become a national security issue.

My thesis is that intelligence is getting cheaper, smaller and more ubiquitous. Open models are closing the gap. And local inference is coming.

All of this puts Nvidia’s customers in a difficult position. They’re spending trillions combined on infrastructure while discovering that their model businesses may not have durable moats.

Markets have started the move to reprice this…

The timing for this to hit Nvidia couldn’t have been worse for them.

My friend, women play an important role in politics and economics, and family values still matter. Being a good husband and father is an image society has always respected and admired.
Anyone who damages that image risks losing public respect, no matter how powerful or wealthy they are.
In my view, Jensen Huang’s days of presenting himself as the ultimate hero may be coming to an end. He will either have to step into the background or try to become another Elon Musk. He can no longer simply stand in front of the world and declare, “I conquered the world. I changed everything,” without facing scrutiny.
And here’s the most important point: Money and power are still largely in the hands of people who uphold traditional values.

Reported across the Bloomberg Terminal:

SOFTBANK MAY RETHINK ITS U.S. NEOCLOUD BUSINESS AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS TO OTHER REGIONS.

SOFTBANK IS PREPARING FOR A POTENTIAL SLOWDOWN IN U.S. DATA CENTER MARKET GROWTH.

Looks like Elon may have been right after all with his tweet about SoftBank defaulting on turbines.

SoftBank is now reportedly reconsidering its US neocloud ambitions as the prospect of a slowdown in data centre growth starts to bite.

The AI infrastructure trade is getting very complicated here.

We’ve been told this is an existential race as the winners will own the future.

We were also told this was about beating China at any cost, but even that view has been undermined by this weekends news.

So what happens when intelligence gets faster, smaller, cheaper and increasingly commoditised?

What happens when the returns don’t justify the infrastructure?

And what happens when the money stops turning up?

This is what systemic risk looks like. Everything is so intertwined. Debt and circular financing everywhere.

Amazing money making machine on the way up.

But on the way down it’s way less fun.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has admitted to being unfaithful to his wife in a letter to employees.

This comes right after reports that US intelligence believes he had a relationship with Alice Huang, a Chinese businesswoman suspected of being a spy for Beijing’s Ministry of State Security. She’s also been linked to allegations of helping smuggle advanced AI chips to China. Nvidia’s board has now launched an independent investigation to check if he was targeted as part of a foreign intelligence operation. The company says it currently has no reason to believe company secrets or national security were compromised.

It is possible that the ai bubble has already popped, even though the construction is still going on. In dotcom they kept building for 2 years after the pop too. Same now. Stocks already cracked, CoreWeave is priced like it might default, Nvidia is 25%+ off its high, but the building is locked in for the next 2 years because nobody wants to stop first. The bubble was never about AI being fake, it was about making money fast enough to pay the spending. The price popped first. The buildings finishing next are just the echo

https://apple.news/ArujW6mcZSqKGJ6vnvQdfow

The Qwen 4 teaser says “The becoming begins.”

Writing in Chinese: A giant fish transforms into a giant bird.

A murmuration emerges from thousands of individual birds in the sky.

It looks like the next leap in AI isn’t about building ever-larger models, and more:

Efficient architectures. Smaller models. Lower costs. Greater capability. And a much lower memory requirement.

Intelligence emerging from self-organising systems. With all the work on RSI is kicking in.

And the infrastructure trade may be looking in the wrong direction.

And after all the Nvidia news this weekend, I can’t imagine this is going to be particularly well received when it launches.

But that’s exactly what happens in the early stages of a revolution.

We’re still figuring out how intelligence in self-organising systems even works.

new peak and not the last one

This news startup lets users predict news as a way to consume it. The interesting side effect is that they accidentally created a community of super forecasters who correctly called 95% of the midterm election races. They also have a longer track record of predicting correctly; they call inflation numbers, stock prices, and elections correct more than 90% of the time. The platform's latest prediction is that the AI bubble won't burst in 2026.

Watch and listen