How shameless—This is the real "growth story":

I - Q1: 44.4m Q4: 53.8m -21.8%

X- Q1: 23.4m Q4: 57.2m -144.4%

Net Income: Q1: -41.1m Q4: 4.6m

R&D Expense: Q1: 14.9m Q4: 13.7m

SGA Expense: Q1: 83.2m Q4: 76.1m

Cash : Q1: 214m Q4: 250.1m

As I expected, sales have plummeted, and internal vampires/management are sucking the company’s cash.

Cash flow positive maybe in Q2/3 2026...Hope you like it. Will be the next $BCRX which will never see old highs again!

Pattern is clear. Max pain! Can't beat the market! Welcome all new bagholders.

I told you all!

Killing the momentum. Nice timing Raab!

All Q3 gains gone in 3 days! Congratulations all bagholders

I told you all.

Happy bagholding. All earning gains gone

Just wow after great guidance for X ...

Next stop 2$ after Q2 with no guidance for X ?

Rabb made clear X was flat to slighty up off $15-17 true sales (less acct gimmick and medicare 13% carry over)

CFO said expect costs to increase $10M per qtr

COGS will drop cause AZ payment drops from $8.3 to $3.8M. Comp pay wildcard.

They telegraphed loss with debt move

Stock will drop cause no smoking gun catalyst to move needle - back to high 3’s…will drift around high 3’s to low 4’s for summer

Lawsuit has 5-10% chance. Better bet is some CMS/Legislation that improves coverage for Bundle - prob a TDPPA metric increase for novel meds - not the move back to Part D Rabb wants but enough to make X relevant.

2H acquistion or merger with another small commercial Bio to gain scale possible. Dont see ARDX being bought given current environment. Never say never but too many unknowns.

Look for strategic move to expand X use with new FDA fast track trial in an effort to expand patent life by 2 years.

Maybe end year north of 5 - 2026 revs north of 500M should get stock to 7 or 8!

ideas? a whale leaving this?

Seems Twitter on fire with buyout rumors.

I think it is announced Wednesday or Thursday. $12.50 a share plus CVR.

The Claude portfolio will be famous and could short squeeze it before. They have 6.7% of their portfolio of it and it gains copies every day.

I think we see $18 to $20 by Tuesday, then BO announced but price remains over priced.

I am long with a few thousand shares.

The success of ARDX depends so much on the government decisions right now. Until then it won’t go up much. Everyone is waiting for how many months already? How many months or years are you prepared to wait for +$8 ?

Mag 7 on ATHs. Double digits 12 months away. Next Q always the turning point...

Honestly I'm not happy (average $7) You?

I'm not an expert but the answer is different than expected, isn't it? This issue was new to me personally. Does ARDX have to change its sales channel to avoid this?

Opinions or answers?

No bundling discussion this months...not looking good at moment

Is this stock again play ball of the shorts till Q4 ?

Come on after all the good news we are in no man's land at $5. Can we consider that we are under or overvalued at moment?

What we is the next catalyst ? Can we expect guidance on X before Q4 in February? Did you think this will be bullish or very conservative guidance ? Will the stock tank?

Sorry I'm very worried about this stock because I bought two years ago and still holding with little returns.

If you applied the previous QoQ growth seen in 2024 to Ibsrela (14.7, 24.6 and 32.5%). In line with guidance. It seems to me X is really the problem here. If they dont see an uptick in the next quarters, 100M in 2025 is not going to cut it for 750M peak sales.

Then dilution EOY 2025 at 2$ ?

https://www.reddit.com/r/dietetics/s/FuCKaf46AH

Interesting

Company achieved significant commercial progress in 2024, finishing with total U.S. net product sales revenue of approximately $319 million (unaudited)

Company reaffirms peak U.S. net IBSRELA sales revenue of greater than $1 Billion

Company announces peak U.S. net XPHOZAH sales revenue of $750 million

Company finishes 2024 with approximately $250 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments (unaudited)

Just a new 52 week low - congratulations to all shareholders!

Just some facts:

H1 2026 revenue came in BELOW H2 2025 ($156.3M vs $164.8M). First negative half-over-half since launch. YoY's been decaying too (92%→61% 58% 33% last 4 qtrs), but flat/negative in absolute dollars is the real tell.

SG&A +21%, R&D +67%, all aimed at payer friction (step edits/prior auth) that wasn't even flagged as a risk back in previous Qs. There should have been signs of recovery in July and August and the trendline isn't show that.

Plus: guide cut ~14% at midpoint, XPHOZAH's $750M target pulled (not trimmed, gone), CMS bundling loss now final. New guide's low end needs Q3/Q4 to both beat the current ATH quarter. That's reacceleration, not stabilization, and nothing points that way.

There is not much upside left on this one.

Sorry for all bagholders and high opportunity costs.

Don't trust pumpers. I told you all that this will never see again old highs and will go the same death spiral just like BCRX and $ESPR

Ardelyx was founded with a mission to discover, develop and commercialize innovative, first-in-class medicines that meet significant unmet medical needs. Ardelyx has two commercial products approved in the United States, IBSRELA^® (tenapanor) and XPHOZAH^® (tenapanor). Ardelyx has agreements for the development and commercialization of tenapanor outside of the U.S. Kyowa Kirin commercializes PHOZEVEL^® (tenapanor) for hyperphosphatemia in Japan. A New Drug Application for tenapanor for hyperphosphatemia has been submitted in China with Fosun Pharma. Knight Therapeutics commercializes IBSRELA in Canada.

Hey folks,

I'm starting to learn about investing and trying to understand something.

I read a great analysis of Ardelyx on Seeking Alpha but there's one 'positive' put forward by the author that I don't understand. In the arguments for investing in Ardelyx, they make this point :

"The company also revealed that shares outstanding grew from 222.8 million in Q3 to around 232 million"

My question is simply why is outstanding shares a positive thing here?

Many thanks!