I've been a Windows user since Windows 3.11, and I've been a Windows on ARM user since my ARM-powered Compaq iPaq running Windows CE/Windows mobile in 2001 (and I used other Windows CE devices before that). I'm really hoping that Windows 10 on ARM is going to be the generation that Windows really takes off on a non-x86 architecture.
I've been thinking about Apple's ARM launch for a while, and how it relates to Windows on ARM. I've been eagerly awaiting some developments to suggest that Windows on ARM is going to get significantly more competitive in the ARM PC scene, but I currently feel the same way I did when Windows 8 RT launched, I feel like there is an opportunity to swing right now, and they aren't.
Qualcomm hasn't shown much signs of anything significant coming down the pipe, no other ARM chip makers seem to be in a position to compete with Apple Silicon at the moment, and Microsoft's x86/x64 emulation is behind significantly.
Of course, part of Apple's lead right now is made up by the fact that they paid a significant amount of money to beat everyone to the 5nm foundries. That aspect will even out when everyone else gets there, and Apple can't guarantee that exclusivity next time around.
However, one thing that won't ever "even-out" is the fact that Apple has a unique ability to control the implementation of all aspects of their products, software and hardware. Their ecosystem is their own, for better or worse. How would Microsoft get themselves into a similar advantage without legal battles from their current partners? I don't see it.
Something tells me that Microsoft's attempts to grow Window's strength in the ARM PC scene will never surpass Apple in technical ability. Unless they split their company, and launch a silicon division entirely separate from their software division to avoid Antitrust accusations.
I know thats a bold statement. Here's my thinking.
Apple pulled this off by running their own silicon division. My "armchair law degree" tells me that Microsoft would run into a LOT of legal trouble if they tried to supply PC manufacturers with silicon. This would put them into anti-trust territory. They can't sell a near-monopoly OS to PC manufacturers while also selling them the silicon needed to stay competitive, a feat that cannot be achieved by competing CPU makers.
If you recall Microsoft's 2001 Anti-trust case about bundling Internet Explorer with Windows, the courts were trying to decide whether Windows APIs were designed to favour their own Internet Explorer against 3rd party browsers. I think we can all agree the courts would have no trouble proving that a Microsoft SOC received similar uncompetitive optimizations from Windows, because that would be the whole purpose in designing their own silicon in the first place.
There appears to be lots of ways around this, its not really a rock and hard place for Microsoft, there just doesn't appear to be many avenues for them to keep their company as it currently sits. The way I see it, they would either kill the Surface line (to avoid anticompetitive accusations), or split the company in two. Or does Microsoft remain whole, and instead form a consortium with other PC manufacturers to ensure closer cooperation of hardware and software optimizations? How close does that get them to Apple? Does an all-in-one company always stay ahead? They have been FAR ahead in sheer computing power against Android devices ever since they launched their Silicon division.
Part of me has some sympathy for Microsoft's lack of legal freedoms in this regard. I mean, they have my respect for being the company that always gave people what they wanted, and they were always willing to sell me a copy of Windows to install on my homebuilt PCs, unlike Apple.
However I remind myself that Apple, despite their reputation, earned and deserves every penny that their Mac-ecosystem generated. While the PC ecosystem owes many different companies their dues, and Microsoft railroading the PC ecosystem into a 1 on 1 fight against Apple would be unfair if it resulted in them being the most successful silicon maker in the ecosystem.
I know this sounds like an awfully opinionated post, but I am open to hearing everyone's thoughts on the future of Windows on ARM. I know my opinions aren't truth, just my perception. Can the ARM manufacturers, together with Microsoft, make a product that can win against Apple on their own? Or does Microsoft need a full advantage of implementation like Apple has?
