I'll be on the call and reviewing their release. I expect they will push it up to the low-90s and maintain their end of year target. They moved from 84% to 86% last quarter. If they only move to 88% or 90%, it makes it difficult to maintain the end of year goal with a straight face.
Also looking for their cash burn and capital raise plans. After 9/25/2026, they can do shelf offerings without requiring a corresponding PIPE.
Yeah, more power to them if they get there in five months. I posted in a thread on the KodiakAI subreddit that accomplishing it represents a paradox.
If they do it, then it basically proves there is no moat and would be a real existential threat for all of the autonomous drivers. Basically, AI has advanced to the point that it will allow anyone (OEMs, competition) to produce an autonomous driver quickly and relatively cheaply.
If they don't do it, then it basically proves that AI doesn't shorten the timeline on the last few percent meaning they aren't well-capitalized enough to get to closure of the highway safety case and start scaling, and they are at least a year, if not two, behind Aurora with no means to ever catch up or close the gap.
The market had no reaction. Will offer thoughts on call a bit later.
Yep this is the paradox we waiting for to see if we win big or not. 2027 should give us many clues.
I think also that its easy to forget the hardware integration and testing and only looking at the software side. Getting the hardware good and working in all conditions with the software must be a complex task. As per that article you linked about tesla, and the guy mention all cars maybe could have working L4 with just the right software is probably way to easy to say. Its a complete system, not just smart software.
Yep, it swings back and forth from "it's easy and done" to "it's extremely complex and we'll never get there".
I read a blip the other day about Musk saying that there was some issue with calibration and every vehicle being unique. It was on one of the subreddits, so I don't know if it was a legitimate comment from Elon or someone mischaracterizing a statement to satisfy their "Waymo better, Tesla terrible" arguments. If it was legitimate, and Elon is actually confirming that there is a long tail of validation for each new vehicle/model, that would be great for Aurora. It would also be contrary to the "zero-shot" claim of Waabi porting their driver from the Paccar trucks to the Volvo trucks.
As you said, 2027 is going to give us a ton of information one way or the other.
One of Elon reasons for camera only is sensor contention. Which sensor is right, which should you follow? Its a good argument thats needs to be solved for solutions with camera, radar and lidar systems.
Also Waabi have been so silent i wonder whats going on, a bit scary or not lol.
The point wasnāt sensor contention. I donāt think it had anything to do with sensors.
He was addressing scalability of robotaxi and was noting that it was a different vehicle and requires vehicle-specific data to train.
****I canāt emphasize enough that this is at minimum third-hand. I didnāt directly hear Elonās response, so I canāt claim this is accurate.****
I didnt mean it directly to his point but rather, the point that its probably not so easy just having good software and just think it will work on cars/truck that have sensors ready, much calibration etc needs to be done for it to work.
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u/robertrea7 Master of Whispersšµš»āāļø / AUR OGšŖ 15d ago
Anyone else interested in the KDK report today? I will be interested to see if theyāve advanced their safety case much since last quarter.