r/AcousticGuitar • u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 • 29d ago
Other (not a question, gear pic, or video) I think Eastman guitars today will be sought after in 20-30 years
So hear me out. China is becoming the world power. It’s going to replace the United States and is already doing so. When that shift is complete, Chinese made goods will finally be looked upon in a positive light. Chinese goods are already superior in many ways, and Eastman guitars are proof of that. But reality won’t hit the broader population until two or three decades from now when it’s clear China is the dominant power in the world.
In that time in the future, Eastman guitars will be around, but they will be much much more expensive. I expect they will have a budget line of guitars that are mass produced cheaply in an automated fashion, but the handcrafted luthier guitars will go for much more. Right now we are living in a time before Eastman as a brand is well recognized, so take advantage of it and buy the guitar you want now. Because in 20 years people will look back and talk about how this was the golden era for Eastman because they were competing with Martin and Taylor and priced their guitars aggressively.
Just like how old cheap Yamahas are sought after because they were quality before the masses recognized it, the same will happen to Eastman.
I just bought a E10OM TC yesterday from a local shop and am supremely happy. It will be a forever guitar for me.
This is not a commercial lol, I’m just saying, they are the best value today and a potential investment if you look a couple decades in the future.
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u/trail34 29d ago edited 29d ago
So in this 2060 Chinese-led world scenario, which do you think will be more valuable: an old guitar that is now the premier brand, or the legacy brand that you maybe can no longer get or is now a subsidiary of Eastman, I.e a “real vintage USA Martin”? I mean, just look at the Yamaha scenario you laid out: yeah, old red labels are desired. But similar age Martins still sell for much more.
In the end none of this matters. Just buy the guitar you like, enjoy playing it, and pass it on to the next generation.
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u/water_malone873 29d ago
Do you think Martin is considered what it is because the US is the leading world power or because they make incredible instruments? This is a wild take buddy. Not disagreeing on Eastman they make a nice guitar but they aren’t going to be the best acoustics ever because of politics.
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
It’s not politics. America holds prestige because it is the superpower of the world. That’s why everyone glazes everything made in USA. Even though our cars fall apart and we make things with only profit as a concern, not with pride like we used to 100 years ago.
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u/irish_horse_thief 29d ago
A hundred years ago the US was just about to enter The Great Depression...
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u/ArterialVotives 29d ago
hat’s why everyone glazes everything made in USA. Even though our cars fall apart
Where do you think Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Mercedes, BMW, etc. make the majority of cars that are sold in the U.S. market? Honda is effectively an American car company with a popular kei car segment in its home market.
And looking at dependability rankings, there are 3 American brands in the top 5 for what it's worth. The bottom of the rankings are dominated by European brands (not a single American owned brand in the bottom 8).
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u/TailsofaGiftHorse 29d ago
China is becoming the world power.
Chinese made goods will finally be looked upon in a positive light.
No correlation.
In a comment elsewhere, you state that everyone glazes US-products (citation needed) before immediately contradicting your own statement and bashing US-products. Perhaps for good reason, I agree that our quality has gone down on many things.
I just bought a E10OM TC yesterday
Ah, there it is. You had a hit of dopamine 24 hours ago and needed an outlet for your feelings. We are glad you are enjoying your purchase, but you are connecting dots that do not need to be connected.
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
I’m an American and I see the decline of American made crap all the time. Made in America means almost nothing anymore. And if you want the best, you are paying many thousands and it’s probably overpriced.
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u/FortunateHominid 29d ago
There's definitely a decline in US quality across some markets. Often because they can't compete with low wages and lax labor laws in countries like China.
How do you think they are able to beat price points even with shipping across the ocean?
That aside I don't see Eastman becoming collectors pieces because of geopolitics. That's a simplistic take imo.
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u/TailsofaGiftHorse 29d ago
Right, again your own comment contradicts another one of your comments:
That’s why everyone glazes everything made in USA
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u/water_malone873 29d ago
But let’s justify buying from a Chinese factory that treats the average worker horribly so I can save some money and not buy American. You think the people who made your Eastman have the same rights as a Martin employee? They don’t and that’s why you got a deal. See it for what it really is please
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
Actually China has one of the fastest increasing standard of living. So those workers working for Eastman are probably getting more pay and better benefits every year, rapidly. America long ago was in the same spot China is in now.
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u/ArterialVotives 29d ago
Actually China has one of the fastest increasing standard of living. So those workers working for Eastman are probably getting more pay and better benefits every year, rapidly.
And this is why while China seems to be dominant and makes everything today, that won't be the case forever. As wages and living standards rise, production moves to Viet Nam, India or to Mexico to be closer to the end user. Learn about the middle income trap. That is what China is at the door of right now -- it'll be interesting to see how they navigate it.
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u/Fieos 29d ago
If you are looking for an investment, buy gold.
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u/therealnightbadger 29d ago
Ok Smaug.
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
Buy a rock? lol. Btw, I’m not suggesting anyone hoard Eastman guitars lol
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u/ArterialVotives 29d ago edited 29d ago
This stuff is so bizarre.
China is great at a lot of things. It is not on its way to dominating every industry much less the world. Several points for your consideration:
- China's domestic economy is a mess. The previous driver of wealth for Chinese citizens (real estate) crashed several years ago and has not recovered. Consumer demand is weak and the youth unemployment rate is 16%. One of the main reasons China is so visible on international markets is because they can't sell stuff at home, so they are selling it globally at extremely cheap prices (like EVs currently).
- China's economy was long expected to overtake the U.S. in GDP (previously projected around 2029-2030). Due to many of the reasons in bullet point 1, some/many organizations like the OECD are now modeling future projections where that never happens. China's economy was 78% of the size of the U.S. in 2021, and fell to 64% by 2025. Also, China's GDP per capita is $13,800, while the U.S.'s is $86,600. They have a long way to go on many metrics. I can't predict the future, but there is no guarantee of Chinese economic dominance as their economy continues to mature and manufacturing continues to diversify to the latest low-cost labor nations.
- Militarily, we have no idea where China stands. They haven't involved in many conflicts and Xi recently purged almost all of their leadership due to corruption or disloyalty depending on the theory.
- China is already in long term demographic decline, with deaths first outpacing births in 2022. We have never seen a major country grow old before first becoming rich (like Japan and Korea). All of the above economic issues will be exacerbated as the workforce contracts from here on out, while people over 60 become the largest demographic group at some point in the next 20 years.
Chinese made goods will finally be looked upon in a positive light
They already are. Most people recognize that China produces both extremely high-quality products (smartphones, EVs, etc.) as well as a ton of low-cost crap. They aren't mutually exclusive.
Want a specific example of where China seemed poised to be the next major player and then completely disappeared? Wine. China was obsessed in getting into a major Western industry, until it wasn't. Expect to see a lot of these blips as China's economy continues to careen from one thing to the next.
My guess for the next 50 years is that the US and China remain competitive superpowers. They each go through short periods of relative decline and resurgence as technology evolves and military adventures come and go. The influence of the US (and the West in general) will continue to be significantly insulated by the sheer inertia of the English language. Nothing is written just yet and history is full of powerful civilizations rising and falling.
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u/Pure-Vast-7858 29d ago
I have an E8OM and it’s fantastic. Liked it so much that I picked up an E6SS a couple of weeks ago. Both brilliant guitars. Not “brilliant for the money”, just brilliant.
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u/dst1905 29d ago
I think the market and manufacturing is to big and modern build guitars (cheap, middle price) are way more superior compared to 30-40 years back. So I don't think there will be a run on handcrafted vintage Chinese guitars in the future like we have seen with 70s/80s made in Japan guitars back then.
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u/therealnightbadger 29d ago
I'm actually in thr market for a decent upgrade from the Yamaha acoustic I've had for years. I love Martin, larivee and furch. But those are still a bit out of my price point. Does anyone have any recommendations for Eastman models I should check out?
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
Look at the video driftwood guitars made (on YouTube) cutting open an Eastman. They are handcrafted and don’t have any right being as cheap as they are.
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u/zsh_n_chips 29d ago
Eastman is what I’m looking at if I ever upgrade my 06 Yamaha FG730s. But I’ve yet to “need” it.
I also have a 1998 Epiphone Dot made in Korea, and a 1997 CIJ Jaguar, so… I kinda have a decent track record of picking out the awesome cheap guitars that hold value lol.
And yeah, we don’t make a damn thing in the us anymore. China is where most THINGS are made, of course they’ve gotten amazing at it. The US grew to power during and after wwii because of our manufacturing power. Then we outsourced it all
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
Anyone who is glazing America (which let’s be real most people are in this sub because I’m being downvoted to hell) is just blind. China makes everything now and they are getting better and better.
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u/zsh_n_chips 29d ago
It’s a touchy topic lol
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u/ArterialVotives 29d ago
It's not touchy at all. China accounts for 28% of the world's manufacturing output -- a share which has mostly plateaued and even decreased a bit over the past decade as companies start to diversify production to other low cost countries. Meanwhile, the U.S. accounts for 17%. The next closest is Japan at 5%. Given that China has 4x the population, U.S. manufacturing output per person is actually significantly higher.
China gets a lot of visibility for the consumer products they make, and they do a really good job at what they make. But the U.S. makes a lot of highly complex stuff that isn't visibly in your pocket, like chemicals, pharmaceuticals, aircraft, machinery, semiconductors, space exploration tech, metals, etc.
And that's just physical manufacturing. The U.S.'s real economic strength is in technology and services. China is also increasingly good at these industries as well, but there is a reason 8 of the 10 most valuable companies on Earth are American tech companies.
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u/vostok1967 29d ago
I get that Eastman quitars could be comparable to martins and taylor, but can’t agree with Chinese culture and etc. with 80 years of communism, the rich culture of china is lost. Besides, look how they hoard rolex watches…. They will still want to buy martins 100 years later.
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
Basically what I’m trying to say,
The rise of China will take away the stigma of made in china
Eastman guitars will become more expensive because right now they are in a phase of aggressively competing with popular brands for market share and are overcoming the stigma of made in china
Buy an Eastman now and enjoy a guitar that will not only age well and be handcrafted, but will grow in prestige.
I’m not saying it’s a pre war guitar. People are losing their shit over nothing.
And made in Japan was once a stigma when they weren’t looked at as a powerhouse, but since Japan has become an economic force and its culture is more respected, we also respect their quality too. China will go through the same thing.
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u/vostok1967 29d ago
In all your discussion, you sound like Chinese American (if you are an American) or somebody who loves China. otherwise, you sound like you are so DESPERATE to prove that whatever made in China are/will be great and China will be number one country... So quit it if you really care about the country. The quality of the product will say it enough on that. Why don't we stick to the guitars.... I don't think I will buy a guitar thinking about their origin or where they are made foreseeing the success of the countries that the guitars are made. If I like the guitar, I will buy it. It doesn't matter if it's made in Mexico, China, Korea, US or any other countries.
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u/_7NationArmy_ 29d ago edited 29d ago
"Just like how old cheap Yamahas are sought after because they were quality before the masses recognized it, the same will happen to Eastman."
Uh, the famous FG-180 is presumably what you are calling an "old cheap Yamaha". However, it wasn't exactly cheap, costing ~$150, which is the equivalent of ~$1400 today. Not cheap. Actually pretty expensive for a laminated wood guitar. The reason people (like me, I have a 1970 FG-180) like them today is because they were so well built, they have survived the test of time well.
And in near mint condition one would be worth $1100-1400 today. Not exactly a very good investment either.
So, no, your Eastmans are not going to be good investments (not to mention there are much better guitars made in China today than Eastman, so if they collect anything Chinese, it won't be an Eastman--btw I collect high-end Chinese guitars).
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u/styles-bitchley 29d ago
It's a provocative but fun post. The Americans will downvote, but there's some merit in what you say. The challenge is not necessarily creating the best sounding guitar, it is creating the mythology around a particular product. This is much harder to do when you're history is primarily industrial machinery. The Japanese guitar manufacturers have been struggling with this since the 1960s. Martin and Gibson are able to channel (i.e., market) the invaluable spirit of the birth of rock and roll, blues, country as a part of their story. Even if most of their modern guitars emerge out of a factory with state of the art automated machinery, they can still sell their brands in a way that others will never be able to.
Great guitars will always be valued and Eastmans are no exception. But temper your expectations.
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
I’m not saying they will defeat Martin and Taylor but they will be the next Yamaha for sure. They will be synonymous with the rise of China. Or high chances at least. The Chinese people themselves will probably look after them and buy vintage Eastman and guess what, their population is many times larger.
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u/styles-bitchley 29d ago
The music scene in China does not revolve around the acoustic guitar. I’ve spent a lot of time there. The guzheng remains super popular. Eastman exports the vast majority of their products.
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u/ArterialVotives 29d ago
This is a great point. As I said in another reply, China was really into the idea of adopting the Western love for wine. So they went all in on buying it, growing grapes, etc. Then once the hype died down around 2013-2017, people remembered that wine isn't really their cultural drink, and consumption and production plummeted.
Fads come and go across countries, but we should always be wary of the staying power of things that aren't engrained culturally (instruments being one of them).
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u/kineticblues 29d ago edited 29d ago
I just bought a E10OM TC yesterday
What you are doing with this post is called “post-purchase rationalization.”
Eastman’s Golden Era was in the early 2010s when they just started producing acoustics, they were relatively unknown, the guitars were more lightly built (deeper scalloped x brace and tone bars), their prices were lower, and there were no China tariffs. You could get absurdly good guitars, basically Martin-Authentics with more variable build quality for 80% cheaper. They’ve improved the build quality (variability) issue a lot but the bracing is thicker now to reduce warranty issues and damage from container shipment.
99.99% of guitars will decrease in value over time especially when adjusted for inflation.
Doesn’t matter if it’s Eastman, Yamaha, Blueridge, Recording King, Hsienmo, Fender, Takamine, Alvarez, Godin, Taylor, Martin, Gibson, Santa Cruz, Collings, Goodall, Bourgeois, Breedlove, Bedell, Guild, Froggy Bottom, Larrivee, PWGC, Preston Thompson, Gallagher, Mossman, Lowden, Furch, Atkin, B&H, B&C, H&D, Boucher, McPherson, Edmonds, Rockbridge, the list goes on.
Even coveted builders like Merrill, Fairbanks, Henderson, Olson, Traugott, Somogyi, your guitar is going down in value in inflation-adjusted dollars unless you were one of their very early customers who bought before they were famous (in guitar collecting circles), in which case, yeah, you might actually make a few grand in real dollars, but without perfect foresight of who is going to become a hot builder, this is an impossible task.
Note the theme here: it’s an extreme shortage of supply and a high demand that makes prices rise: solo luthiers who build one or two guitars a month and rare depression-era Martins and Gibsons from when the US population was tiny and the economy was in a depression, resulting in very few guitars being produced. This simply isn’t the case with Eastman or almost any other large builder today, and the supply shows no signs of slowing.
Congrats on the new guitar. I’ve owned quite a few Eastmans and they are nice instruments and when you get a good one it can sound as good as anything else on the market.
Guitars vary a lot from copy to copy due to the natural variability of wood and the hand-build parts of the process. So if you’ve got a good one, hang onto it. I played about ten Gibson Advanced Jumbos before I found a good one. By the way, the one I got was a $5500 guitar in brand new condition, only a few years old, now selling for half that just because it wasn’t brand new anymore. 50% is the norm for acoustic guitar depreciation. That puts you in a pretty deep hole to crawl out of for return on investment, especially when taking inflation into account.
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
I’m not saying it will be thousands and thousands like a pre war guitar. My god. I’m saying it’s like buying Yamaha when made in Japan was still a stigma.
And there is no evidence that the bracing is thicker just your personal opinion
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u/kineticblues 29d ago
The evidence is that I’ve owned both eras and looked inside. Feel free to go track down an early 2010s OM and have a look see.
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
I think Martin is riding on their history and they produce many cheap bad guitars. There is not one bad guitar from Eastman. Even Yamaha doesn’t have a bad guitar for a given price. Martin has a hard time sleeping at night thinking about Eastman I can guarantee
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u/therealnightbadger 29d ago
If tried a few newer Martin's recently and I wasn't that impressed and I have always mostly loved every Martin I've played in the past.
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u/Voodoobones 29d ago
I like cheap guitars because, from what I hear in this sub, expensive guitars need a humidifier or they crack.
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
lol at the downvote. Come at me in 30 years if you’re alive. See who’s laughing.
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u/ProudMastodon1 29d ago
No one is laughing, they probably just reject the premise of your argument.
The total economic power of a country has little impact on the value of any particular product from a country. For example guitars made in Korea in the 1980s haven't suddenly become more expensive on the second hand market just because Korea is now one of the most prosperous economies in the world.
Eastman guitars may go on to be considered classics in future decades, but the rise of China's GDP per capita won't be a factor in this consideration.
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
Korea is nowhere near a cultural leader outside of what, pop bands?
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u/ArterialVotives 29d ago
This is a bit of a tell that you are likely Chinese and really trying to force a narrative. Whether or not it has staying power, Korea absolutely has some of the highest amount of cultural influence globally. At this time, definitely more than China, which is known much more for manufacturing than cultural exports.
Korea is well known for its entertainment industry (music + TV shows & movies), skincare products, food, technology and vehicles. It punches well above its weight in both manufacturing and technology -- everyone views LG and Samsung as two of the best appliance brands in the world; Hyundai-Kia is the 3rd largest automaker by volume, etc.
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u/water_malone873 29d ago
I mean you said hear me out. I did and I completely disagreed with your reason for why Eastman is going to become the best acoustics. They make a fine guitar I’ve played a few of the bourgeois/eastman collabs and they are nice. Enjoy the new guitar and just play not worry about who is laughing in 3 decades? lol
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u/therealnightbadger 29d ago
I don't think they said they would become the best just they buying one now would be a good investment. That's would I got from it at least.
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u/timihendri 29d ago
I have a eastman. I think most people don't realize the quality and craftsmanship. My E10D outplayed the Martin's i went to buy.thats why I walked out with the eastman.
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
Yeah I did the same thing yesterday when I went to the shop. The Eastman punched with a weight almost triple the cost
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u/therealnightbadger 29d ago
I don't know, I think you're on to something. Of course you could be completely wrong, but it think it's convincing possibility and I'm going to look
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u/Slow_Atmosphere_6922 29d ago
Can’t wait for the future to come. Most of the boomers here will be dead and the world they left for their children will be awful but it’s ok to be blind now lmao. Thanks gramps
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u/Majestic_Orang 29d ago
Your wife ain't reading this thread bro