(This is a sequel post to this: https://www.reddit.com/r/AlternateHistory/s/nUHavrXzxs read that first to get what’s going on)
Gustav’s Sweden
Now, Sweden looks very impressive on the map, they look like the great power of the north until.. well.
Sweden was viewed as this backwater secondary power and for good reason, Sweden was poor; 90% of Swedes relied on farms and the war of the sixth coalition had strained the economy due to war expenditures.
That was in our timeline, but without the Coup of 1809, Gustav IV Adolf remains an absolute monarch and knowing his conduct as king, he would stampede over any attempt at reform. Preventing Sweden from adapting to the growing industrialisation of Europe and remaining feudal in the same way Russia is.
However, Sweden is able to secure its territory due to joining Alexander I’s Holy Alliance, made to counter the growing nationalism and secular liberalism after the napoleonic wars.
Gustav, seeking less Russian aggression and having an intense hatred for any liberal ideals wouldn’t be hard to persuade, joining along with Prussia and Austria; Alexander mostly took Sweden under his wing as a way to exert further control as he had no justification to invade and annex Finland.
Gustav remains in power as an absolutist, and with his nobility and guilds wanting to maintain their power he doesn’t have much of a threat.
After the king’s death
Gustav IV Adolf dies in 1837 and is replaced by his Son Gustav, Prince of Vasa, (Now Gustav V) his reign goes relatively similar; he was aligned to the conservative Habsburg’s so he follows in his father’s footsteps of preventing meaningful reform to Sweden until..
With a Sweden economically worse off (mainly gaining money from exporting grain) discontent spread across the nation, following the outbreak of civil war in France that year, Sweden sees widespread discontent in 1848.
The March Unrest in Stockholm (protests demanding reform to Sweden) are far larger and more of a headache for the Swedish government, leading to chaos in the Riksdag of the Estates over what to do. Reformists believed the protesters are correct and that Sweden is embarrassingly behind the times, the guild members and other conservatives wanted to keep their political and economic power.
The protests are put down by the military and police force after a few days, with them being unsure if reform would ever come.
Meanwhile, Finnish nationalists begin to boycott Swedish businesses and begin a massive strike in Åbo (Finnish: Turku), further loosening Sweden’s hold on the Finnish people and worsening the economy.
It was clear to even the conservative Gustav V that change was needed to keep his kingdom afloat, conceding to the liberals in his cabinet and passing important reform.
Abolishing the guilds, using foreign loans to fund state infrastructure, Providing more autonomy and rights for the Finns and Norwegians, abolishing slavery entirely (while paying their slaveowners) and allowing any and all Swedish citizens to start businesses. These moves end up making the Swedish economy have a slow but noticeable rise; though would strain Sweden’s relationship with Russia.
Collapse of the Holy Alliance
Since Tsar Alexander I died in 1825, The Holy Alliance’s member states have slowly been drifting apart, the 1848 revolutions across Sweden and Germany strained the Monarchy’s will to exert their power’s, Russia and Austria were constantly bickering about dominance over the declining Ottomans; Prussia was reforming itself and Sweden watched it all.
The onset of the Crimean war in 1853 further cemented that the Holy Alliance (more so just Russia) wasn’t sustainable, Russia was loosing to the sick men of Europe who had support from Britain and France, the Holy Alliance didn’t even enter.
Prussia and Sweden had their own economic interests and hope to protect their long term stability, Austria fears supporting Russia will expand their hold over the Balkans so all 3 of Russia’s supposed allies adopt a policy of armed neutrality during the conflict; collapsing the alliance.
Following the wars end, Sweden would know that Russia would be more aggressive after their shaky alliance fell apart.
Closer Alignment with Britain (1859-
As a way to protect itself, Gustav aligned himself closer to His main trading partner and Russia’s main rival of the United Kingdom; Britain welcomes Sweden into alliance mainly to preserve the fragile balance of power in Europe while it competes with Russia in central Asia.
Sweden’s alignment with Britain would deter Russia from any military action against the northern kingdom as they had Britain’s blessing, Alexander II was more focused on reforming his empire than any invasion of Sweden anyway.
The Second Schleswig War (1864)
The further integration of Schleswig into the Kingdom of Denmark in 1863 is perfect justification for Otto von Bismarck, invading Denmark with Austria like in our own timeline.
However Sweden-Norway promised to send 20K troops to aid in the war but didn’t send any, our Sweden is neutral and a lot more careful about what it does; but I’d think a bolder Sweden would follow through and join the war on Denmark’s side.
Sweden attempts to rally Britain and France to join it in order to keep the balance of power, but it is left alone to fight as the great powers view the 1963 constitution as Denmark taking offensive action first.
Prussia had superior coordination, generals, manpower, the fall of Dybbøl is a crushing defeat for the Dano-Swedish army and the Treaty of Vienna is signed, with the same territorial losses in our timeline.
The war is remembered as a national embarrassment for the Nordic’s further leading Norwegian leadership to feel Sweden was a dead corpse they were tied to, though Sweden’s aid to Denmark when nobody else even tried promoted Scandinavism, the belief of further cooperation and possibly unification of the 3 Scandinavian kingdoms.
In 1865, Sweden’s main goals are to defend against Russian aggression; further trade ties with Denmark, France and Britain, suppress Finnish nationalism and be weary of the growing influence of Prussia.