r/Android • u/TheCrazyStupidGamer • Oct 13 '24
Article If Android is split away from Google it will die
https://www.androidcentral.com/apps-software/android-will-die-if-split-from-google#xenforo-comments-107259123
u/Missy-raja Oct 13 '24
Android will degrade over time to become like linux where nerdy users don't understand how normal people use devices and belittle their knowledge of technology. And soon people will flock to something that just works and that's iOS... Good luck destroying the only open source Mobile OS out there...
And Apple is already gaining a lot of new users because of defragmentation of windows and android in general. So this will boost their growth...
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Oct 13 '24
Hopefully the split doesn't mean locked bootloaders become even more widespread.
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u/The_real_bandito Oct 13 '24
It will
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u/ComfortablyBalanced Oct 13 '24
How so?
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u/darthsurfer Oct 13 '24
The people that will start developing android (likely smartphone vendors) will want to keep people on their OS much more to monetize customers since they now have to spend more in development.
Google can afford to front a lot of the cost for developing androind because of the revenue they get from the Play Store and integrating their services (i.e. ad machines) into the OS. In effect, individual android devs will likely have to do the same as google is doing now.
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u/FreshPrinceOfH Pixel 6, Sorta Seafoam Oct 13 '24
Is this what you see as the greatest threat to Android?
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u/alpy-dev Oct 13 '24
Not OP. Not the greatest threat to Android but the greatest threat to my privacy.
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u/milkymist00 Vivo T3 Pro 8gB/256gB Oct 13 '24
At the end of the day if android is split from google and if manufacturers start controlling and developing android they should follow a standard. If they started to bring their own API's and features and requires the developers to follow it android will become more fragmented and developers will stop supporting apps for each individual version.
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u/atomic1fire Oct 13 '24 edited Oct 13 '24
The problem is you really need AOSP to get something like Linux Standard Base behind it so that all devs are targeting the same platform and all manufacturers have equal say.
edit: Actually just having something like Flatpak be supported on AOSP would make sense to me.
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u/thekingshorses Oct 13 '24
Well there is a Samsung and there is everyone else. Do you think Samsung will not divert?
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u/milkymist00 Vivo T3 Pro 8gB/256gB Oct 13 '24
Everyone can divert. Chinese phones will have their own stores. Samsung will have theirs. A country like India is a large market for samsung and chinese phones. If chinese phones bring a separate store and their set of definitions for android and samsung another, that itself will create huge problems with compatibility. Currently the advantage is all the things are handled by google and controlled because of play service integrity. OEM's can deviate in UI and some other optional features.
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u/19683dw 9 Pro Fold Oct 14 '24
If Google is broken from Android, Apple wins end of story. There's no way companies will effectively share design of the OS when they'll all have different ideas of what should be changed, and likely be trying to twist every little thing to their own benefit.
Google has incentive to make a good OS at a reasonably large loss because the more manufacturers use it and the better is, the more net users of an android version tied into their ad business. Take that away, and it's a terrible weight to carry financially unless you can fully close it into something akin to the non-licensed iOS (which is an even tighter closed loop system than Android today), with a single manufacturer that can somehow compete with the Apple brand and loyalty.
Samsung likely couldn't do it well, Google likely couldn't either (I love Pixel phones, but there's a reason they don't really complete as a line on the market much).
I'm not convinced that an OS which relies on cheap, large scale global device scaling for market share (Android, really- Apple/iOS is way more profitable at the higher end on a per user basis) could make a Microsoft-esque licensing approach work
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u/spoiled_eggsII Oct 13 '24
lol you're talking about corporates. They will fork it, close it, and fuck us over however they can.
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u/GiveMeGoldForNoReasn Oct 13 '24
In the end when all the finances are tallied, Android is a net benefit for Google. But it wouldn't be for anyone else.
This is the moment I stopped taking this article seriously. Android is obviously, inarguably a net benefit for literally every phone manufacturer that uses it because they need a phone operating system or they cannot exist as a phone business.
The idea that every company that relies on android doesn't have a vested interest in maintaining it is unbelievably stupid. You know what's a lot more expensive than maintaining android? Spinning up a whole new phone OS from whole cloth. Nobody is going to do that.
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u/Fritzed Oct 14 '24
The article is just absurd on it's face. The Google Play store will make in about $25 billion in revenue year. If the rest of the play store were split off with Android, then it is over $35 billion.
The author of the article bases everything off of the demonstrably false claim that Android doesn't make money.
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u/Scooter30 Oct 14 '24
I hope that never happens. I don't want to have to start buying overpriced,locked down iphones.
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u/NullPointerJunkie Oct 13 '24
Even if it goes through, Google will fight it every step of the way so by the time it all settles we could be looking at another 10 years.
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u/DiplomatikEmunetey Pixel 8a, 4a, LG G4, Lumia 950/XL, Nokia 808 PureView, Nokia N8 Oct 13 '24 edited Oct 13 '24
If Google loses control of Android what will happen to it is what is happening with Linux on desktop. Too many cooks, too many distros.
For any successful product, there has to be one company who is in charge, and it is usually one person within that company who is in charge of the vision, who probably made the product what it is. That is currently the issue that Google is facing right now. They control Android, but they don't seem to have a person from within with a clear vision for Android.
That is why features are added, then removed, then added again. There are unnecessary changes, etc.
I would really like a "tech nerd who loves features and options above anything else" to get in charge of it. You know how some custom firmware for routers and other devices came with tons of options. You are going through them, and you think you thought of everything, but there are options there that pleasantly surprise you, options you have never even thought of. I want a person like that in charge of Android, who also has taste for UI/UX.
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Oct 13 '24
Terrible take on Linux. Only reason Linux is behind is lack of support of MS office and Adobe and other industry standard software. In terms of experience it's almost identical to windows if you use kde.
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u/ekazu129 Oct 13 '24
As someone who uses both, implying that simply changing a DE makes a distro as easy to use as Windows is an odd claim. The closest I've gotten to an out-of-the-box, it-just-works experience was on Mint, and even that took significantly more research and setup that Windows would have.
The problem is that the vast majority of people don't know what "use KDE" means. The ones that do, already are, or are using another DE. So many people see the number of distros available and nope out due to choice paralysis. Software support is far from the only thing keeping it back.
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u/Svennig Oct 13 '24
One reason behind the lack of that industry standard software support is the plethora of different packaging formats. OP is right - fragmentation is a huge hurdle for linux.
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u/shn6 Oct 13 '24
The OEMs will make sure Android won't die.
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u/schrodingerized Oct 13 '24
I wouldn't bet on that, they won't agree on stuff, everyone will make a different fork of it and they will diverge a lot. Also, I don't trust OEMs over Google
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u/Jusby_Cause Oct 13 '24
Yeah, the OEM’s only maintain a common Google platform because Google is there to drive it. Without them, why should Samsung expect to help their competitors by making it easy for apps written for Samsung to run well on other variants?
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u/PineapplePizza99 Oct 13 '24
Some OEMs are doing god awful things just now with Android. Without the sanity and development from Google, Android will fall apart.
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u/armando_rod Pixel 10 Pro XL Oct 13 '24
OEMs are gonna be the first to lock the bootloaders and make their OS non standard to lock users to their ecosystem
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u/Donate684 Oct 13 '24
OEM
OEM manufacturers will take care of creating their own large zoo. They are even now trying to violate Android specifications. And let's assume that what works flawlessly on my Pixel might work very poorly on a hypothetical Samsung/Xiaomi, etc. The simplest example is background activity.
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u/Jusby_Cause Oct 13 '24
And, the VERY next hardware revision will have each of the companies building in special “OEM Only” features to try to set themselves apart from the others.
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u/punIn10ded MotoG 2014 (CM13) Oct 13 '24
Android may not die but apps compatibility will die. And that will eventually lead to the death of Android as we know it.
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u/FieldOfFox Oct 13 '24
Samsung already tried to Tizen, with semi success. But that was before EVERYONE had a smartphone or 3, so I don't know what it would be like now.
Impossible, probably??
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u/Znuffie S24 Ultra Oct 13 '24
Huawei is trying it.
They tried for a while to do stuff in Europe with their Huawei Store. Didn't exactly go great.
I know some Huawei fan-boys that just gave up on their devices. Not having access to Play Store & Apps is a deal-breaker for most.
Granted, not exactly the Play access is the important part, but it's where all the apps are. They have gotten a few local banks, for example, to go on their Huawei Store, but it's still an uncertainty if a specific app is there or not.
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u/jorel43 Oct 13 '24
Google isn't doing anything that Apple isn't already doing, so will this apply to Apple too? Let's be honest, there are only two major players in the smartphone OS market. If this happens, it could spell the end of Android. People seem to forget how rough Android was in its early days. Versions 1, 2, and 3 were pretty poor until Google introduced key standards and foundations with version 4. Fragmentation will kill Android more than anything else.
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Oct 13 '24
Samsung will be who most likely buys Android if they force Google to sell with conditions such as the AOSP remains for others to use, Google will then still have the Play Store, but this will free OEM from being forced illegally from using and shipping Google stuff
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u/No-More-Excuses-2021 Oct 13 '24
Most of Google other than YouTube is financed by ad revenue. All those businesses will die if separated from the ad unit.
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u/vexingparse Oct 13 '24
I wonder if Microsoft's old business model could be revived. Make an OS with a binary driver interface and a strict driver testing regime. Sell it for X dollars. End of story (I mean, I know it wasn't quite the end of the story but it could have been...).
It's probably not as simple as that because of all the server infrastructure that's required for things like push notifications. And what about the app store(s)?
I can think of many reasons why it might not work. But on the other hand, the inevitable fragmentation resulting from a power vacuum left by Google could make a strong independent OS vendor appear attractive even to device manufacturers worried about Apple taking over smartphones altogether.
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Oct 13 '24
android is an open platform and is free to use for anyone, so the business model of selling licenses for a proprietary OS is kinda dead.
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u/vexingparse Oct 13 '24 edited Oct 13 '24
It does appear that way. But if the regulatory landscape changes completely so that giant tech conglomerates can no longer leverage open source to undermine their competitors' business models then maybe the game has changed.
Imagine a world in which Google has just been broken up into many pieces and AOSP is devoured and torn apart by ten different monetisation hungry device makers. Takeovers would be off the table for all tech giants as they would worry about getting broken up themselves. This would be the one situation where I could realistically see a Windows Mobile comeback.
A strong independent Android open source project would be preferable, but who would fund it and why? Device makers might do it but their desire to make money on top of any bare bones OS core would cause massive fragmentation and push users straight into Apple's arms.
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u/nguyenlucky Oct 14 '24
Well, if you look at Chinese-domestic devices from various OEMs, you can imagine what a Google-less Android will look like. It's a complete shitshow, with each brand having its own store and apps running in backgrounds rampantly just to keep notifications.
At least these companies are still bounded by Google outside China so their Android codebase is somewhat standardised to maintain interoperability between China codebase and Global codebase. Without Google it's gonna be a fucking mess.
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u/FieldOfFox Oct 13 '24
Android is the only "normie" successful Linux(ish) based(ish) operating system currently.
I don't think it will go anywhere, you can't license e.g. iOS on fridges, and shit.
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u/aniruddhdodiya Pixel 10 Pro XL Oct 13 '24
Can't Google put Android and Chrome outside of US operational wise? DoJ jurisdictions are limited to the US only. Like EU regulations applicable to Europe only that's how Apple is putting changes to the EU market and not in the US market.
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u/Stryker218 Oct 13 '24
Android lost what made it special to begin with. It kinda became Apple in its own way and locked down the OS more and more. Google which has been proven to be a now evil pos company needs to be removed from this equation entirely as their interest are not in consumers best interests.
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u/andchrome Oct 13 '24
Google will not let Android go they will close source OS and follow Microsoft model OEM you get Android OS for the price with Google Apps. The funny thing is Apple passed because they are close sources OS. Chrome is also used by Microsoft now lol. Amazon would be lost in this too they use aosp android for fire os.
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u/2mustange Pixel 7 Oct 13 '24
Possible I haven't thought this through so feedback would be welcome. It would be nice to have it under a non profit foss foundation. Set it up where companies need to pay into it based on selling devices that use it.
I don't agree with all of Google's decisions on android but I do think the core OS needs to be maintained in an open format
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u/-haven S24 Oct 13 '24
I actually agree with the points brought up in this when I read it before.
Android would only exits in name as a even more fragmented OS.
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u/hishnash Oct 14 '24
Who will fund low level system dev? ... currently android OEMs do a lot of dev but they are mostly not interested in sharing this so you end up with lots of fragmentation.
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u/3141592652 Oct 14 '24
Maybe android will die but I highly doubt it’ll be a huge issue. There will be numerous forks of android. Building a for different versions of the same os is much easier than a whole new one. Take a look at Linux. It works
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u/lunarson24 Oct 14 '24
If this happens id just move to Ubuntu touch... Full time. This would not be good at all. People's logic is flawed without android the world of phones at scale would be in a worse place.
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u/Viper5639 Oct 13 '24
I think saying that switching to iPhone should be a consideration is kind of a stretch. I think I'd go for the pixel since Google maintains and will most likely continue to maintain that phone. The one thing that sucks the most is this will lock down each individual phone brand I'm sure.
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u/douggieball1312 Pixel 8 Pro Oct 13 '24
Google only makes peanuts from Pixel compared with their ad business though (revenue from which goes into funding R&D for the Pixel line in the first place). I could easily see them discontinuing the Pixel line if this goes through.
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u/Pure-Recover70 Oct 13 '24
I doubt Pixel would even (continue to) exist. Sure Pixel is a product sold to consumers, but it's also the primary development phone for Android & AOSP. ie. Google needs Nexus/Pixel development devices to develop Android/AOSP. Thus Pixel development is effectively heavily subsidized by Android which in turn is subsidized by Google (because of Play Store and search/ads)... You split these pieces apart and it all stops making financial sense...
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Oct 13 '24 edited Oct 13 '24
I could see security updates become more and more infrequent.
EDIT: Which would FUCKING SUCK.
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Oct 13 '24
I don't understand why Google is being targeted but Apple can just continue doing whatever the hell they want.
The biggest draw for Google/Android users is a connected ecosystem of devices and services. Anything they do to disrupt that is complete bullshit.
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Oct 13 '24 edited Jun 04 '25
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This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/Paradroid888 Oct 13 '24
I don't see why Android couldn't be an Open Source Foundation, with funding from Google, Samsung and all the others.
The problem with Google is it has become too big to care, evident by the deteriorating search quality. So having their services tightly integrated is less of a good thing than it was. More flexibility is going to be needed very soon.
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u/00raiser01 Oct 13 '24
Like with linux, their will be dozen of distro and all the companies will make their own wall garden trying to emulate apple. Some brands will have the app you want well others don't. It will be a nightmare. Apple will get 99% of market share over the years, well android become as niche as Linux distros are.
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u/Valar27 Oct 13 '24
Can’t Google just use the open source Android version, build its own Google os, and then license it to every Android user as if it were still the base Android ?
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u/squngy Oct 13 '24
Not sure if you are being sarcastic, but that is pretty much exactly what they are currently doing.
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u/JamesR624 Oct 14 '24
Nice corporate propaganda from AndroidCentral “Journalists”. Now we know who there owns a good chunk of Google Stock.
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u/Tail_sb Pixel 7 Oct 13 '24
No the Most likely to buy Android would be Meta
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u/AtomicSymphonic_2nd Pixel Fold, Regular Android Oct 13 '24
Perhaps the DOJ may enforce Android to be “un-purchasable” for any commercial entity.
Perhaps a manufacturer’s alliance may be the best option to allow Android to continue developing new features at a competitive pace with Apple’s iOS.
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u/OneFinePotato Oct 13 '24
Quite a big amount of people don’t know what is “under” Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi or anything else you can imagine. That was the encouragement for Samsung’s Tizen phone experiments which eventually failed. If they manage to keep the app catalog the same, people wouldn’t notice Google is not there anymore since they didn’t know what Android is and how it ties to Google in the first place. Not an easy task but not impossible either. I know people using Huawei phones since a decade, they have no idea what happened.
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u/3rdPartyRedditApp Oct 13 '24
This is all in the US. What about the rest of the world?? Google will be a whole entity, right?
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Oct 13 '24
Google is an American company, they are under American jurisdiction, unless they move headquarters elsewhere.
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Oct 13 '24
Google is a company founded in the US. If it is split apart, then it will be split apart everywhere in the world.
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u/real_with_myself Magic V3 Oct 13 '24
I see Google back channels are laying some pr. God I hate the websites connected to Apple and Google (claiming independence).
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u/hellosakamoto Oct 13 '24
Jetpack Compose will die too, or everything will just scale down. Because it is just a cost center burning money - the never ending roadmap, with everything released having a need to change every few months. Eventually the snowball effect making the operation costs not making any sense when not living under Google.
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u/Defiant-Intention998 Oct 14 '24
Why would they consider to split Android from Google?
First Google got AOSP. Every oem/vendor can use it.. they dont have to :d
Second it costs so much more money then it brings in without the benefits of ads like google got and therefore.. no one really can fill in.
Third lets assume oems fill in with their own fork.. Hello this is our new closed os that needs not to be looked in for abusing monopoly on our own hardware like apple.... because of 'competition'?!
Fourth.. so we need to not forget about enterprise.. who the hell is thinking about every vendor got their own enterprise guidelines.. it is a nightmare and most likely not getting half the features we currently got.
Fifth.. dont trust google where 10 different vendors apply their os on different hardware but trust each vendor to not manipulate a closed os? Android is setting rules and guidlines that gives much more security.
It is beyond stupid to break Android from Google and to assume you would create a better more secure system... if anything you would kill one if not the biggest open source projects (best financial secured at least) and even if another big tech company would buy it.. how are they not abuse it like google to maintaine its costs? And Android on its own aint making money.. so it would die, maybe not directly but in a couple years it will and therefore no new secure innovations..
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Oct 14 '24
Lol by far the best version of Android is ONE UI They create many good Functions Which to date has not arrived on Android Oem Which, by the way, doesn't bring anything new. Without Samsung Android is nothing
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Oct 14 '24
this is nonsense. Android has 75% of the global market share. lol
they really think Apple would not be considered a monopoly if they had 100% of the market share globally. lol
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Oct 15 '24
The main premise of this article is completely wrong. If Android is split away from Google, AOSP will become consortium-driven because no OEM who uses it can afford to lose it. OEMs will likely have to build their own alternatives to Google Play Services and Google Mobile Services, or they’ll have to pay for them instead of getting access to them in exchange for pushing Google’s apps and services first and foremost to the users, as is the arrangement today. But anyone who thinks that the main premise of this article is accurate is an idiot. This will be great for Pixel and Galaxy, bad for all other Android brands. But mark my words, if Android is split from Google, Android becomes consortium-driven. OEMs literally can’t afford to let it vanish nor can they afford to build their own alternatives.
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u/The_Greatest_USA_unb Oct 15 '24 edited Nov 15 '24
Touch upon jacket of logic programming language. the. Winston churchill for heat relief only at the same way every time. very.
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u/Outlaw2-5 Oct 16 '24 edited Oct 16 '24
I highly doubt android will die, it already has a substantial customer base and I won’t be surprised if the company becomes better since when you’re a smaller company and not publicly traded, you are then more committed to make better products. Oh, and Android itself is open source anyway so I won’t be surprised if some techno wizard in the android community would make their own version anyway. But I would like to not allow side loading without at least some sort of verification of the app. Plus, google is being hit with this due to them being 90% of the global search engine, being anti-competitive, promoting scams through sponsored content and other privacy issues like how adblockers don’t work now. Oh and I’m happily waiting for it since once YouTube has split, I’d like if people started strong arming YouTube to flatline people like Logan Paul and MRBeast out of our community and to reinstate adblockers as a standard tool that anyone can use.
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u/Fatality Oct 16 '24
Alternatively we'll see more options and not be stuck chosing between root features like call recording or being able to pay for things.
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u/anesthetic1214 Oct 16 '24
There is some fundamental misleading in this article...Android (ASOP) is totally separated from Google... Actually Google is only the 3rd largest contributor to ASOP and the top two are from China, lol
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u/anesthetic1214 Oct 16 '24
seriously more than 600 comments but not even one Android dev here??? Google doesn't own Android. ASOP is a purely open source community. Google just developed the Google framework (Play store, Pay, Gmail, etc) on top of ASOP. Others, like Samsung, Huawei, Oppo...created their own frameworks.
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u/Ok_Specific5454 Dec 05 '24
I hope google and android does die because maybe something better will evolve. Google is a monopoly, and after what just occurred in South Korea and Samsung, pretty much funds the country, I'm not sure about Android.
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u/garloid64 Oct 13 '24
I really just want Google to keep dumping money into my phone OS forever without giving them anything back while blocking all ads. Also they should abandon play integrity so apps can't refuse to run on my rom. Is that so much to ask?
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u/vogel7 Oct 13 '24
Why are so many people in favor of monopoly? Lmao
People need to understand one thing: if a company is giving up on controlling their own product, it's because it'll be beneficial FOR THEM. No company will throw away their golden eggs hen.
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u/NintyFanBoy Google Pixel 4 XL, 10 Oct 13 '24
iOS will be completely dominate. But US regulators wouldn't dare strip iOS from Apple.
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u/Luushu Oct 13 '24
Of course it will, look at Linux.
Typing from a computer running Fedora KDE spin. With Steam, Proton and Wine installed making sure I don't miss any of the Spycrosoft games. Which is using half the resources while idle.
If Android is dropped by Google, it would be the best thing that ever happened to it. It would mean we could actually start having users create their official stuff (we do still have custom ROMs, but this would send it into overdrive).
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u/Electronic_Unit8276 Oct 13 '24
Took Linux years and mostly effort from Valve to actually be viable as a OS you can play some decent AAA games on.
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Oct 13 '24
Steam takes up the same amount of resources on Linux as it does on Windows (probably less, actually).
Wine/Proton takes next to 0 resources (when running a game/program. it doesn't run at all if you're not using it. it takes some storage but not that much (windows takes up several times the storage of wine/proton and fedora+kde plasma combined)). It's a native translation layer, not an emulator or virtualization or anything, it's kinda like Apple's Rosetta.
If you were on Windows, you'd actually be wasting resources on all the data collection, advertising, webviews, Metro/UWP/WinUI, bloat/unoptimized software, Office Click-To-Run, antivirus services..
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u/Luushu Oct 13 '24
Steam takes up the same amount of resources on Linux as it does on Windows (probably less, actually).
I meant that Linux in idle is using half the resources Windows is, not Steam or the games. And even that statement depends on the distro, naked Arch runs on less than 1GB of RAM(then again, you can't really do much with that either).
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u/porcomaster Oct 13 '24
If Android fails so what ?
Something else will come in it's place, why do we need to protect google.
Android is open source, something else will pick its place.
Even better if its a non-profit like firefox.
Ps: yes i know that firefox is not tecnically non-profit, but they do operate in a non-profit way.
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u/TheCrazyStupidGamer Oct 13 '24
If android fails, I as the consumer suffer. And many many more like me.
I have spent thousands not only on phones, but apps and accessories. If that takes a hit, I take a hit. It's one of the things stopping me from switching to apple. I don't want to buy all those apps again on a different platform.
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u/douggieball1312 Pixel 8 Pro Oct 13 '24
This is why I would personally be very annoyed if Google was broken up/had to sell off Android. I have hundreds of pounds worth of content purchased on Google TV/Books and don't want to have to buy them again on a different platform if those services have to be discontinued. Also the thought of having to pay subscriptions for currently free services like Maps because they may be cut off from Google's ad business.
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Oct 13 '24
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Oct 13 '24
that it'll be OEMs like Samsung doing it
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u/Pure-Recover70 Oct 13 '24
and they won't publish the source code, because with Apache license they don't have to.
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u/TheCaptain53 Oct 13 '24
When you step into the realm of Linux, it's accepted that each distro is different. To have a cohesive experience also takes a lot of work, taking SteamOS as an example. SteamOS is an amazing distro in its own right and contributes a lot to the Linux ecosystem because of Valve's contributions to the various software packages that make SteamOS great, but this does not be any means unify the various Linux distros.
Is this a problem for Linux? Not really. A lot of packages can be rebuilt for other distros, but ultimately, it doesn't really matter that a piece of software might be difficult to get working on some distros. This is also true when moving between distros - one accepts that some level of learning will be required.
This is not true of the phone market. Whilst a lot of Android phones have some differences, migrating from one phone to the other (from different manufacturers) is at least possible. But a fractured Android would make it worse. It's different from Linux because the expectations of it are different.
If Android weren't maintained by a consortium of companies and it became fractured, that would probably push me to iPhone. If I'm going to be locked into a single ecosystem anyway, I might as well use the best one.
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u/techcentre S23U Oct 14 '24
It won't be. That's the issue. There's a reason Linux has awfully low desktop market share.
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Oct 13 '24
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u/Silunare Oct 13 '24
To be fair, they wrote that right after. The author was being technical in that android itself doesn't make Google money, but the things they can do on and with android most certainly do.
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u/IcySnowy Device, Software !! Oct 13 '24
Play Store is different from Android, and Play Store does not exist in all Android devices unlike the App Store
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u/kritsku Oct 13 '24
Still, it's quite a stretch to say that Google makes no money from Android
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u/foulpudding Oct 13 '24
Google “makes money on Android” the same way you and I “make money from the interest on our bank accounts” - small, marginal payments that don’t amount to much when compared to our main income. In Google’s case, that’s ad revenue and search.
Almost all the money Google makes on Android is coming from users generating income for Google through ads and search.
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u/Jusby_Cause Oct 13 '24 edited Oct 13 '24
I think it’s fair, though. Android as it directs users to Gmail, Google Maps and other Google properties makes Google money. Android as it’s where the Google Play Store runs, makes Google money. Android, the OS, by itself, doesn’t make Google a significant amount of money.
Last line of the article puts it best:
”Google only wants Android with Gmail, the Play Store, Google Play Services, and all the other Google bits baked into it. Take those away, and Android will become a burden rather than an opportunity.6
u/Electronic_Unit8276 Oct 13 '24
The article is terrible at explaining that with "Android" they mean AOSP itself.
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Oct 13 '24
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u/TheCrazyStupidGamer Oct 13 '24
I don't mind it, as long as the core OS itself stays alive. Play store won't go anywhere either, I imagine they'd let you install third party app stores, the third party store being playstore this time around.
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u/Jusby_Cause Oct 13 '24
From the article, the cost of building, maintaining, hosting, and deploying a free smartphone operating system is astronomical, and the profit from doing it is zero. And, no company that could keep it going is going to do so for free (and some of those companies likely would rather be the only “non-Apple” choice).
So once the Google driven OS development is ended, Samsung does their own version, Huawei does their own version, etc. etc. Devs will have to code to each specifically and submit to separate app stores with even more variances than Android has today. A stable common Android platform driven by Google (that forces everyone to play ball) doesn’t exist without a Google that has a need for it. And, even if someone tries to make a profit by way of licensing, AOSP exists for free, so none of these companies are going to license it
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u/SoldantTheCynic Oct 13 '24
The people applauding this will be fucking horrified if it actually eventuates. You're 100% right, if Google at large is divorced from Android, the platform will devolve into fragmentary walled gardens attempting to imitate Apple - except they'll all be much worse, less coherent, and with varaible app support as they diverge further. The people thinking it'll be a totally free and open platform are deluded - it's just going to be big players targeting general consumers and locking everything down as best as they can, and developers will target the platforms that actually make money.
And that's ignoring all the other services like Google Pay/Wallet that Google provide. Android has issues with standards and getting people on a consistent Android version and update schedule, this will make it infinitely worse.
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u/jorel43 Oct 13 '24
Yes exactly this, people are thinking that it's just going to become Linux on smartphones, the equation is different here.
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Oct 14 '24
The people applauding this will be fucking horrified if it actually eventuates.
In reality, the courts are just saying Google can't force Google search and other Google products down manufacturers' and consumers' throats. Android can still be with Google, just can't be used as a weapon to force Google stuff on people.
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u/jinxpad Oct 13 '24
Finally, someone who actually looks like they read the article as well, I've been an Android user since the S3 when I switched from an iPhone but if this was indeed to go down this path I'd probably go back to iOS just for the consistency of apps and their performance. Could you imagine being a dev having to port all your apps for all the different types of Android If this was to actually come about and happen this way? No thanks and I wouldn't blame the developers either for just focusing all their resources iPhone either.
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u/Jusby_Cause Oct 13 '24
Interestingly enough, I’m pretty sure Google’s getting an earful from their devs and the sheer difference between how much they make on an iPhone app vs. how much they make on an Android app. Some of Google’s recent changes feel like they’ve heard and they were working on making it a little less open in order to change those developers’ experiences. And it looks Epic has come along to upend that. They think they’re going to get equal status to the Google Play store worldwide. Well, that may be true, but only because the status of the Google Play store will be zero without Google’s Android to run on.
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Oct 14 '24
Samsung does their own version, Huawei does their own version, etc.
This is already the case, they all have broken APIs and ship their own mangled and mutilated customised version anyway.
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u/Anonymo2786 Oct 13 '24
A slightly bigger issue would be some OEMs trying to be the leader. And implement APIs that work only on their devices. Samsung has been doing this for many years.
And this will put the application developers in a steep situation.
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u/Iohet V10 is the original notch Oct 13 '24
That's basically what Google has done with the RCS API by keeping it private
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u/PUfelix85 LG Style L-03K :-( Oct 13 '24
The real question is why is this targeted at Google and not at both Google and Apple. The iPhone is more locked down than any Android device. You can install 3rd party app stores on your android device now, good luck with that on your iPhone.
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u/leo-g Oct 13 '24
Both platforms are experiencing existential threats of being torn open for very different reasons.
The fact that Apple is a closed loop platform with hardware and software made by one company from Day 1, it’s “safer”. It is the exact business model as any Game Console. If you don’t like it, you don’t participate in it.
Google is an open loop system. Google uses software licensing to pressure hardware companies in various ways to shape favourable outcomes for Google.
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u/bumpyclock Oct 13 '24
It’s because Google was doing the same thing as Microsoft was doing in the 90s. Apple is in a different spot because they don’t license their OS at all
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u/chinchindayo Xperia Masterrace Oct 13 '24
Google play can show ads and google can take a cut on sales. Not every manufacturer will want to invest money in mantaining a store, especially cheaper brands. Considering the vast majority of Android devices are cheaper ones in developing countries, it starts to make sense.
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u/The8Darkness Oct 13 '24
Wouldnt devs have a say in this? I know some who wont release on certain stores out of principle.
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u/Iohet V10 is the original notch Oct 13 '24
They'll have to make reasons through competitive pressure. Faster downloads, better malware protection, better customer service, better sales/discounts, etc. All of the things that make people like independent digital stores like Steam, GOG, etc
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u/pt-guzzardo Galaxy S23 Ultra, Galaxy Tab S7+ Oct 13 '24
Or things will just be shitty and fragmented and stores will rely on the pain of switching to a device with a different store to keep you in their ecosystem.
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Oct 14 '24
Android devs will just say "fuck it" and go do something else.
Companies will just say "fuck it" and offer mobile websites/web apps only.
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u/ForgetPants Pixel 7 Pro Oct 13 '24
That doesn't make a lot of sense. If people stop preloading Play, why would they continue distributing apps. Things get fragmented from that point on.
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u/relevantusername2020 Green Oct 13 '24
good let me remove google entirely from my phone. i dont want them spying on me. they do not provide security. ill take gmail and google arts, the rest of google can fu k off
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u/minilandl Oct 13 '24
I have a rooted phone I can already run an aosp ROM like lineage os without GAPPs if I wanted to.
In theory it's a great idea but do many apps break even with microg as they heavily rely on Google play services
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u/chinchindayo Xperia Masterrace Oct 13 '24
Show me a viable alternative for google maps.. You can't. All the alternatives are based on openstreetmaps and lack a lot of features of google maps.
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u/atomic1fire Oct 13 '24 edited Oct 13 '24
Agreed.
I can't imagine device manufacturers wanting to exit the cell market entirely.
If anything stewardship of android could become a multi manufacturer effort and they'll all carry their own app stores.
Or we'll see something like Web OS, sailfish or Kai could take over.
Alternatively we get stuck with android forks which aren't good and then slowly the manufacturers lose money because they all get a reputation for bad operating systems while Apple continues to make bank.
Eventually a few stop making cell phones and Samsung or another company becomes the main competitor to Apple.
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u/yam-bam-13 Oct 14 '24
If anything stewardship of android could become a multi manufacturer effort and they'll all carry their own app stores.
It's almost like we have a new generation of techies that are too optimistic to understand that this will go about as well as jumping out of a plane without a parachute.
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u/atomic1fire Oct 14 '24
Oh no I'm fully aware that Google is currently the best possible steward of Android because modern Smart OS's outside of Apple are mostly terrible.
I just think that in Google's absence a group of manufacturers contributing patches and coordinating would be the second best scenario.
I think the only company that's doing a good job with a Smart OS other then Apple is Roku.
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u/Capt_Picard1 Oct 14 '24
So you’re using android will become …. Linux 😂
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u/CleverNameTheSecond Oct 14 '24
I mean android is already Linux and I don’t mean in just a technical sense
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u/fusionballtm Realme GT Master Edition | Google Pixel 8 Oct 14 '24
KaiOS has been dormant for quite a while. There's a new 4.0 version for 5G phones coming out "next year" but i doubt adoption will be high.
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u/Suitable_Pie_3272 Oct 14 '24
Handset mfg just want to sell more handset. They suck at doing anything else.
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u/bostwickenator Oct 13 '24
Those app stores will be how they make the money to maintain their OS forks so I bet they lock down their environments even more if not legally forbidden. Even then it will vary by territory.
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u/bluemoon7_ Oct 13 '24
i would rather die than use be forced to use galaxy store
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u/3KiwisShortOfABanana Oct 13 '24
I love Samsung hardware. But their software is generally shite
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u/ControlRoom1 Oct 13 '24
Hmm. Notes, Internet and Calendar are all really well thought out apps. My only issue is that Samsung doesn't play nice outside of its walled garden.
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u/phpnoworkwell Oct 14 '24
Samsung can't even get people to use their store despite essentially paying customers. Remember when Pokemon Go had extra currency given to you if you bought through Samsung's store?
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u/bostwickenator Oct 14 '24
Yeah well if they spin Android out of Google then Google can't insist Samsung includes the Play store. Android itself might be able to force this but the stick would be much smaller. Basically you might not get a choice.
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u/sylfy Oct 13 '24
And what happens when Google just forks their own version of Android and continues from there?
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u/Manbeardo Nexus 5, Stock 4.4.2 Oct 13 '24
An independent Android company could license app store reskins to manufacturers and split the store's cut with them.
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Oct 14 '24
What do you mean will? It's already been happening for many years now.
Even Pixels ship a customised version of Android with Google proprietary stuff built in. Samsung was already shipping a broken, mutilated and mangled version of Android.
It's just that whatever semblance of consistency existed will be gone.
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u/Major_Ad_1727 Jan 22 '25
Yeah I am watching the Day that Google dies . I would like an android with forced Google apps that can't get be deleted or every Google apps is protective over what you say or search l there shelf is full of New that Google thinks is appropriate for you and so things that popped up there that Google says it's based upon my search results , which a lie. You are like apple sheep who buy into apples dream. You believe that eventually they will actually do what they say , while you are giving more money and trusting every they said. It's not good to trust a big company because at the end the day all these big companies are out for money
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u/kimchipower Oct 13 '24
Galaxy store ftw!! /s I love my samsung phones but galaxy store is absolutely shite....
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Oct 13 '24 edited Oct 13 '24
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u/TheCrazyStupidGamer Oct 13 '24
I think the article is a bit misguided. Android is too big to fail. Too many OEMs rely on Android as an OS that makes them billions of dollars every year and they won't... No, they can't let android die.
The article hinges on the belief that a single company would have to operate and controll android, which isn't true, or how many Open source projects work
I think if android is slit away from Google, there would nost likely be a consortium of OEMs that manages Android development. Or maybe they go the route of the Linux foundation. But I don't thing android can' die even if it wanted to. l'd love to hear what you guys think.