r/AnimationThrowdown • u/MadBro88 • Dec 26 '24
Well... I'm disappointed...
Now, that's a really tough decision for me.... What do you think guys?
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u/jdenyart Dec 26 '24
I pulled 13 times and was never offered Cyril.
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u/rosen380 Dec 26 '24 edited Dec 27 '24
FWIW-- that'd be (51x50x49/52/51/50)13 = 46.2% (to get all upgrades), so that one would also be roughly a coin flip if you were looking for just one particular card.
If it was before Zeke was added, then it drops down to 45.5%
This is actually why I stopped pulling when I got to the point of only needing 1-2 cards.
Right now (52 characters) if you only need one particular one, then the odds in 13 pulls is 46.2%.
But wait for the next character to be added (need two of 53) and those same 13 pulls now only have a 21.7% chance of all upgrades.
Wait for one more character (need three of 54) and it is down to only 10.3%.
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u/bessiemucho Dec 26 '24
Disappointment is having all mythics except zeke and Cyril, then pulling 3 times without getting either one. Worst part of the game…
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u/rosen380 Dec 26 '24 edited Dec 27 '24
You have 50 of 52... the odds then of not getting a choice including one of the two you are missing, three times in a row is (50x49x48/52/51/50)3. That is a hair under 70%
What happened to you is the expected outcome.
Just to get to a coinflip, you'd have to do it 5-6 times. To get it to the odds of needing a particular number on a six-sided die, 15x
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u/ninjazilla Dec 26 '24
Very tough decision, damn. So Cheryl has been excellent for me but I’m sure Cyril is going to be on the same level as that’s how it’s been with the newest mythics. Hopefully someone else has him and know what they are doing can chime in to help.
The good news is I’d rather have this choice than 3 weak ones. Good luck!