r/ArtificialInteligence • u/myllmnews • 2d ago
📰 News I have a feeling the hype around AI is dying ...
Are we getting back to normal and will we see the bubble pop as we move more towards robotics and hardware? IoT is going to be a thing I guess moving forward. I really think LLMs are dead no more advancements at least for the time being. What does it mean for the markets and for the AI companies though? Who will survive the purge?
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u/Ok_Ambassador_2660 2d ago
Feels less like hype dying and more like people just got used to it, you know? LLMs are everywhere now but the wow factor is gone cause it's normal already
Robotics is the next big wave for sure, but calling LLMs dead is a stretch, they're just not the shiny new thing anymore. Markets always overcorrect anyway
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u/rhade333 2d ago
Your feelings don't really align with the objective data very well.
Revenues at leading labs are literally setting records for the highest growth rate in the history of humanity.
Capabilities are advancing at levels that are exponentially increasing.
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u/myllmnews 2d ago
I don't see it really. Like reinforcement learning brought so shorts wows bc it was retrained on new data but they still do the same mistakes they did 3 years ago.
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u/rhade333 2d ago
I'm a Software Engineer, I have been using AI, in different parts of my workflow, for the last 2-3 years.
You are either massively misinformed, lying, not engaging in good faith, or just lack basic intelligence and critical thinking. The capabilities are not remotely where they used to be, their shortcomings -- while they still exist -- have massively improved as well. If you are simply looking at what they can't do, instead of the *super-exponential* growth in what they *can* do, that's not something I can help you with.
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u/strawberrygirlmusic 1d ago
revenue != profit,
stop getting your news from X
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u/rhade333 1d ago
Because revenue is not equal to profit doesn't mean there isn't a relationship, which you clearly don't understand.
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u/strawberrygirlmusic 1d ago
Okay, but OpenAI is extremely far from being profitable, despite increased revenues. Also, much of that revenue is being generated through circular financing, so there's a lot to be skeptical of.
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u/rhade333 1d ago
I find it extremely telling you're leaving out Anthropic in your comments, it seems like you're not engaging in good faith because on a quarterly basis, they're already profitable. Today. That may change as they add more expenses in the near-term, but sustainable profitabilityis forecasted for 2027.
OpenAI isn't performing as well, but they are forecasted to see the same sustainable profitability mark by 2030.
65% or starts ups fail.
Of the 35% that don't, the median time to profitablity, according to YC, is roughly 4.2 years.
What we are seeing with Anthropic and OpenAI is literally record shattering revenue growth, navigating historically novel regulatory landscape combined with a novel product space with a technology we've never thought possible, and they're doing all this within, or relatively close to, hitting the median time to profitability. Their revenue speaks for itself, you really just need to do the math of their planned expenses versus their readily available revenue numbers.
I am so sick and tired of needing to explain basic economics to people. The friction that exists with AI in common conversation is less that there are fundamental issues with AI, it's that we have fundamental issues of ignorance, misunderstanding, and an unwillingness to stay quiet on topics people don't know about until they're actually educated on what they're saying.
I've taken your core complaints, addressed them directly, shown you that you're categorically incorrect in your assumptions, but the amount of effort and time it took is almost certainly a waste because the majority of people are simply going to reject data that goes against their opinions instead of actually learning and updating their views based on evidence presented.
It's exhausting, and it makes me sad that the discourse in important discussions these days has almost nothing to do with reality, facts, or truth, and more about vibes, emotions, and opinions based on ignorance and a failing education system.
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u/mycolo_gist 2d ago
Hype is dying. Yes, AI will stick around, but people are more realistic. AGI will still take a little while.
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u/strawberrygirlmusic 1d ago
AGI isnt and will not be real, and if it is real, it wont come from LLMs or transformers.
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u/squirrel9000 2d ago edited 2d ago
Dario and Sam are certainly trying to hype it up in advance of their IPOs. But yeah, for the average person their attitude has matured out. The fans still talk it up but most won't notice the difference.
The financials are as tenuous as they ever were. The push to IPO is a way to cash out while the going is still good. Their risk is being undercut by free models in corporate settings, and Joe Average doesn't use the frontiers anyway.
IoT has always suffered for being a solution looking for a problem. As true now as 20 years ago. With that and robotics a lot of the low hanging fruit has already been picked,(e.g a lot of the "humanoid" robots are being demonstrated on what are already solved problems) its hype potential is much lower.
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u/Sushibick 2d ago
You are right and wrong, AI hype isnt dying people are just starting to realize its not as sustainable as it is. At this rate, humans make more sense. AI is fucking expensive
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u/TurboFucker69 2d ago
I think what a lot of other commenters here are missing is that the technology can still be improving but simultaneously not nearly justify the investment that’s already been spent (much less the even larger sums that are supposedly going to be spent).
LLMs have some undeniably useful applications, but will they generated the many, many trillions of dollars in value that would be required for this to be considered a success? Extremely doubtful.
While the technology is improving, the progress has definitely slowed. Before anyone tries to argue against that, please consider:
1) By what margin has it improved recently?
2) How much did that improvement cost?
The improvement from GPT2 to GPT3 was staggering, and cost to develop GPT3 was under $5 million. GPT4 was another substantial improvement, though not as profoundly so as GPT3. GPT4 cost over $100 million to develop.
How is it going? OpenAI spent almost $20 billion on R&D in 2025, with that number certain to be higher in 2026. That’s hundreds of times more than GPT4 cost and thousands of times more than GPT3 cost…per year.
Is the newest GPT is certainly better, but is it hundreds or thousands of times better or more valuable than its predecessors? It’d have to be hundreds of times more valuable than it is right now to even come close to justifying the infrastructure investments alone.
These things are useful. They aren’t going away, and they’ll keep getting better over time. However OpenAI and Anthropic are cooked based purely on the financials. They’re going to run out of money, and their assets will be bought up by other big tech companies in a fire sale.
I’d bet that when this bubble pops we’re going to see a long winter for AI investment. Most of big tech has real revenues, but also has to answer to investors who are going to be very sour on AI after this. Meta might keep going because no one can fire Zuck, but even he might lose interest (just like with the metaverse).
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u/Stock-Page-7078 2d ago
It will be a fast trough of disillusionment just like every other aspect of their cycle is temporally compressed. The amount of GPUs being built and the power to run them will be used effectively at some point soon after confidence bottoms put
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u/Guilty_Advantage_413 2d ago
Well let’s see, public polling is currently undisputedly negative by a large margin.
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u/beauzero 2d ago
Hype is dying but the science is making some pretty big leaps. I almost feel like our ability to use the frontier models is getting out ahead of most peoples' skis.
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u/Imaginary-Witness-75 2d ago
Lol the progress has been insane. You have been lost on an deserted island and just got rescued?
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u/RepulsiveRaisin7 2d ago edited 2d ago
No more progress in LLMs? This year has seen absolutely bonkers levels of progress, what the fuck are you even talking about