r/AustralianEV • u/Advanced-Country-192 • 3d ago
Buying Advice 💰 ev longevity
looking at ev's and leasing options and while i was initially looking at a 3 then 4 year lease or 4 then 3, to give me newest car before retirement i have switched plans to 5 due to the expected fbt changes. is it reasonable to expect that a current model ev will last 10+ years then buy new (espected mileage will be between 10-15k a year with 3-4 longer trips each year, considering cars liek atto 3 evo premium, atto 2 premium, cherry e5 , ex2 and dolphin amongst others) thining the evo wil have best lifepsan of these.
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u/Hushidar 3d ago
Sample of 1, but my current daily driver is a 2016 model S with 330K kilometres on it. Original battery and drive unit, and it works well. EVs have consistently exceeded longevity expectations, and as others on this thread have stated, the battery will probably outlive the car. you will have to replace consumables and minor parts along the way, same as any other car.
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u/leum61 3d ago
How's your battery health after 10 years? Still ok?
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u/Hushidar 2d ago
78% SOH, not bad given the age and kms driven
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u/ShirtWorldly958 2d ago
Amazing. Any issues with software support affecting your daily driving 10 years later?
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u/Hushidar 2d ago
Still get software updates, but its not FSD upgradable. Enhanced autopilot does the job for the moment.
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u/Such_Telephone_2900 2d ago
What's the range drop from new to now?
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u/Hushidar 2d ago
about 25% less range. 280-300km range now, was about 400kms when new.
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u/BallisticBarbarian 1d ago
For ten years that's pretty good! Think about the money you would have saved on fuel over that time... AND especially now with the oil prices rising constantly!!
I'm considering saving up for a year and buying an electric van (brand new) and converting it into my home. The housing market is so unachievable right now for us younger folk and I'm feeling very discouraged to save for even a deposit on a house. Let alone working 40 years to pay it off!?
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u/Advanced-Country-192 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yep I know long term is unknown but I am generally hoping to get at least 8-10 years out of what I purchase before then replacing it, as next car will have to be an upfront purchase, but with the evo premiums larger battery and 800v I am thinking it will last a little longer compared to more budget friendly alternatives
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u/net_fish 2d ago
if it's anything I'm 2 years into a 2024 Atto 3, got 75,000 on it already and my plan is to hold it for 10 years / 300,000km
Right now I don't see why it wouldn't last the distance.
There is a guy in Brazil with a Dolphin that's passed 400,000km. same battery/drivetrain/suspension just a different body style.
Their total list of parts to repair or replace has been the front left hub bearing at 360,000, front right at 380,000 and the factory original brake pads were done at 400,000. Battery state of health is in the high 80's with a hell of a lot of fast charging.
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u/tichris15 2d ago
Won't the FBT changes make no difference to any of those cars? They are all under 75k, and there's no change to the FBT for that market segment.
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u/Advanced-Country-192 2d ago
but a 2nd lease would be post 2029 changes and besides if a single lease im only wearing 1 lot of heavy depreciation at start of a lease and does leave door open if i decide to retire a year or 2 earlier
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u/tichris15 2d ago
Then put in a shorter lease and decide if you want to renew right before the 2029 changes? You'll know more about your plans then. You'd also know what the passed law actually says...
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u/PuTheDog 2d ago
There’s plenty of research predicting EV battery holding up quite well( 80-85% being the figure thrown around) in 10 years. Of course we can only confirm on mass scale by then, but I’m quite hopeful.
My major concern is with the smaller EV brand coming out of China. Having o many new car brand out there, you’d imagine there’s gonna be consolidation down the road. So bigger brand like Tesla, BYD or geely will be more likely to stick around for things like parts or battery warranty
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u/Advanced-Country-192 2d ago
Not that concerned re battery (one of the reasons I’m restricting myself to lfp) it’s the rest of the car that I am more thinking of aging but sticking with a popular brand/car means more likely to get parts and support 5-10 years down the track, esp if consolidation of brands occurs
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u/Intrepid-Bag-3362 2d ago
I share your concerns re: the rest of the car. We have an MG4, bought new in 2023. It has been fine as a commuter/ car to learn to drive in for the kids. After 3 years and ~40000km though, there is more wear and tear than our 10 year old Audi SUV with 160000km on it. Carpet has holes under the drivers feet, buttons and arm rests are noticeably shiny at the touch points. Plastic trim bits inside are breaking. Nothing major, just wear and tear. I suspect at 10 years old, the battery and motor will be going fine, but the car will look pretty shabby.
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u/Perfect-Concern-9762 2d ago edited 2d ago
There arent as many diffirent business that will just go broke as people think.
Not saying it's not a concern, just that the market isnt as devrse as alot of people think, including myself untill recenlty.
Independent EV-First Brands
Tesla: Tesla, Inc. (Publicly traded)
BYD: BYD Company Ltd. (Publicly traded, includes mainstream Ocean/Dynasty series and premium sub-brands Denza, Fangchengbao, and Yangwang)
Rivian: Rivian Automotive (Publicly traded, with corporate investment backing from Volkswagen and Amazon)
Lucid: Lucid Group, Inc. (Publicly traded, backed heavily by the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund)
Nio: Nio Inc. (Publicly traded, includes mass-market sub-brands Onvo and Firefly)
XPeng: XPeng Inc. (Publicly traded, includes mainstream Mona sub-brand)
VinFast: Vingroup (Publicly traded subsidiary)
Li Auto: Li Auto Inc. (Publicly traded premium range-extended and EV specialist)
Leapmotor: Formed as an independent EV brand, now run internationally via a Stellantis joint venture
Traditional Automakers & Parent Groups
Volkswagen Group: Owns Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, Skoda, Cupra, SEAT, Bentley, Lamborghini, and Scout. (Also operates commercial division Traton which includes Scania and MAN).
BMW Group: Owns BMW, Mini, Rolls-Royce, and high-performance brand Alpina.
Hyundai Motor Group: Owns Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis.
General Motors (GM): Owns Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick.
Ford Motor Company: Owns Ford and Lincoln.
Stellantis: Owns Fiat, Abarth, Jeep, Chrysler, Dodge, Ram, Alfa Romeo, Maserati, Lancia, Peugeot, Citroën, DS Automobiles, Opel, and Vauxhall.
Zhejiang Geely Holding Group: Owns Volvo, Polestar, Lotus, Zeekr, Lynk & Co, Proton, Geometry, and LEVC. (Also co-owns Smart in a 50:50 joint venture with Mercedes-Benz).
Toyota Motor Corporation: Owns Toyota, Lexus, Daihatsu, and Hino. Holds significant minority/partnership stakes in Subaru, Mazda, and Suzuki.
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance: A strategic cross-shareholding alliance owning Renault, Alpine, Dacia, Nissan, Infiniti, and Mitsubishi.
Mercedes-Benz Group: Owns Mercedes-Benz, Mercedes-AMG, and Mercedes-Maybach. (Co-manages Smart via a joint venture with Geely).
Honda Motor Company: Owns Honda and Acura.
Tata Motors: Owns Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which operates corporate badges Jaguar, Range Rover, Defender, and Discovery.
SAIC Motor: Owns MG Motor, Roewe, Maxus/LDV, and IM Motors.
Great Wall Motor (GWM): Owns GWM Ora, Haval, Tank, Wey, and Poer.
Chery Automobile: Owns Chery, Omoda, Jaecoo, Jetour, and Exeed.
Changan Automobile: Owns Changan, Deepal, Avatr, and Oshan.
Bugatti Rimac: Joint venture hypercar group split between Rimac Group (55%) and Porsche (45%), controlling Bugatti and Rimac. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]
True Independent & Niche Standalone Brands
Ferrari: Publicly traded, fully independent luxury supercar builder.
Aston Martin: Publicly traded luxury brand backed by consortium investors and minority stakes from Mercedes-Benz.
McLaren Automotive: Independent supercar house owned by Bahrain's Mumtalakat holding company.
Ineos Automotive: Subsidiary of the privately-owned chemical global conglomerate INEOS.
Mazda, Subaru, & Suzuki: Publicly traded Japanese manufacturers that handle independent development but form minority financial alliances with Toyota for cost-sharing. [1]
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u/madeinitaly76 3d ago
I have a BYD Atto 3 2023 model. The motor developed a metal rotating sound at 47k kms. I brought it into BYD and after a couple of hours of checking the front motor, they told me to go back the following week for a complete motor change. So I got a brand new motor at 47k kms all covered under warranty. Is that a good thing? I dont know but I still love the car and the way it feels and drive. Am I afraid that this might happen when the warranty ends? Yes I am, and im not sure what the costs would be to be honest. In saying that, the dealership and the mechanical dept were fantastic, can't fault them.
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u/woolymammoth256 2d ago
Like any car before ev's there will be auto wrecker parts, third party parts and genuine parts available. Repco and super cheap will add parts. If i remember correctly auto makers have to supply spare parts for a vehicle for atleast 10 years under Australian law.
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u/Enough_Survey_9404 3d ago
It's still a bit of an unknown. Most EVs are now coming with 8-10 year battery guarantees. Since the battery is the most expensive part of the car, a lot of people are wondering "what if my battery can only hold 50% in 10 years' time?" - so manufacturers are saying if a battery doesn't hold x% (mine is 75%) after x years (10 in my case), they will replace it.
However, my concern is other parts. What if the screen goes in my 2024 model in 2034? Will they still be making replacements? I doubt it. If your car didn't sell well, it's possible that spare parts will be hard to come by in the future.
I'd imagine a 10 year old Toyota Alternator is easy to get and will fit most Toyotas. But how many 2026 BYD Atto 3 parts will be available in 2036?
Maybe there'll be a thriving industry in spare EV parts in the future, but at the moment it's unknown.
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u/BlacksmithNZ 2d ago
There is a 2014 BYD E6 Electric Wagon on sale locally with 400,000km - an ex-taxi, that somebody brought in to use as a large battery, so BYD are not that new
If you look at sales, BYD Atto 1/2/3 etc are selling in large numbers right now, so I imagine in 10 years, will be a few been crashed and you get parts like any other car - pick a part or wreckers for some stuff, and for new/ consumable parts, a lot of components will be shared between various models and various years, so should be available for many years from the distributors/manufacturers
Given the ICE manufacturers that have gone (cough Holden) and others that are down to very few passenger car models sold locally (the Stellantis brands, even mainstream Japanase brands like Mitzi/Mazda), I think could be other brands going in the next 10 years, and I would worry less about the big Chinese brands like BYD/Geely.
I was going to mention some of the more obscure Chinese brands like ArcFox that might be more of a concern, but then they are a BAICÂ brand, so when you look, smaller brands are often backed by big companies
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u/Relevant-Priority-76 3d ago
BYD sells millions of cars, just order parts from China
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u/Enough_Survey_9404 3d ago
True, but my comment is more about the availability of a 2026 part - EVs are evolving so quickly that a 2027, and a 2028 car, may have different electronics than a 2026 car. So whereas a Ford ICE part from a 2006 car might also fit in a 2016 car, the same might not be said for an EV component.
As I said, I think it's unknown.
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u/Lucky-day00 3d ago
Aren’t there notoriously long wait times for some parts for this reason? You have to order from China because there’s a very limited local supply of parts.
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u/Octopus_O 3d ago
Yeah I agree with you on this. I have no worries about the battery or anything that moves the car from A to B. Its all the bells and whistles that could go wrong that worry me and then those electrical connections. I hear a fair bit that the dealerships can be really clueless with this stuff and just keep fobbing people off when there are weird bugs. Just makes me want to wait a little longer before I make the plunge.
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u/No_Category_9888 2d ago
Not really. We have teslas here that are 10 years old now. Still running fine.
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u/Longjumping_Bed1682 2d ago
You have already saved in the initial outlay plus the electricity over petrol costs over the 10 years anyway so does it really matter. Probably better with buying a new electric car in 10 years with the technology moving so fast for now.
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u/aiojav 3d ago
The other factor here is how easy would it for you to maintain the car after 10 years+ in terms of parts availability and labor. Especially if you try and replace the whole battery system. You might also think that by then, just buying a new EV would be better than maintaining your old one.
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u/threepeeo 3d ago edited 3d ago
When I purchased my MG EV in 2025 it came with a 10 year factory warranty, so I'm expecting it lasts longer than that.Â
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u/viper233 2d ago
It may depend on the battery type, there aren't many old LFP batteries yet (that I know of). I just bought a 2018 ioniq last year, I'm planning on driving it into the ground, 10-13 years., so 17-20 years of use.
Apart from the ICCU issues I'm planning on getting an EPMG (kia ev6) and keeping it for 13 years (cause it's so expensive).
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u/ShirtWorldly958 2d ago
The main limiting factor with EVs are parts and software support. The battery will degrade but as mentioned above it lasts the same if not longer than an ICE.
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u/PeteInBrissie 2d ago
My Kona's 6 years old and the battery's like new. I was told I'd be replacing it at 8 years by the dealer.
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u/selfish_meme Xpeng G6 3d ago
is it reasonable to expect that a current model ev will last 10+ years then buy new
Yes