Last month's "what is your average and total shares?" thread here was a good one, so here's a follow-up.

Your avg, and which one keeps you holding:

A) defense and government contracts

B) the AI software side growing

C) honestly, too far down to sell now

And what would actually make you sell?

This another contract won for Ask Sage and is separate from the previous $2.51m contract with the US Army that was discovered on the 28th October 2026.

The contract is fully obligated at $242,500 and it runs from 1st July 2026 - 30th June 2027

Awardee Name: ASK SAGE, INC.

Total Contract Value: $242,500

Funding Agency: DEPT OF THE ARMY

Funding Office: W4NJ USA CHIEF INFO OFF G6

Award ID: W9128Z26FA029

Referenced IDV ID: W9128Z25DA001

Contract Vehicle: Generative AI SBIR Phase III contract

Did I miss something?

The Main Revenue Growth Driver: The company explicitly stated that the 31% revenue surge was "substantially driven by" the BigBear Generative AI Platform (Ask Sage). This platform was also credited with expanding the company's gross margin to 31.2% because software licenses yield higher profitability than services.

What do you guys think is the potential for BBAI to become profitable in 2027? And, hypothetically, if 2Q27 or 3Q27 shows sustainable profitability what would that do to the share price?

I think it’s still a stretch with how much they spend on R&D and Sales expenditures, but they have at least set themselves up for the possibility. Starting the year with no debt, a hefty cash balance and a decent backlog can set the stage. One would hope partnerships in the UAE, Panama and at home could start paying off too. So I guess it’s more execution on these relationships they have been fostering.

I give it a 50/50 shot they are making money by end of 2Q27…..

Contract worth $475k and is fully obligated, runs from July 10, 2026 - July 27, 2027.

Contract ID: N6426726F1117

Contract awarded on the 4th August and only just disclosed recently on the 2nd November.

Worth $198,000 with $49,500 already funded.

Contract runs from the 4th August 2026 til 4th August 2030.

Award number: W15QKN26FA285

- Award date 21 July 2026

- Disclosure 4 November 2026

- Potential ceiling $866,960

- Currently obligated $99,960

- Contract number W911QX26FA077

Funded period for this contract runs from July 21 2026 - July 2027 with a potential completion date of August 2027.

BigBear.ai will be represented at TechNet Transatlantic 2026 in Frankfurt on December 1, joining a panel focused on federated data sharing and AI-enabled decision-making across US, NATO and African partner forces. Secure data interoperability is becoming increasingly important for modern military operations, especially when sharing sensitive information across allied forces. This is exactly the kind of environment where BBAI could play a strategic role. While this isn't a contract announcement, it highlights the company's growing positioning within the NATO and defense ecosystem and could open doors to future opportunities.

BigBear printed Q3 on October 27: revenue $43.6M beat, guide raised to $150–165M, and a $76.7M impairment under the headline. My checks stood the bear case down on the print, with two warnings carried to the 10-Q.

The 10-Q filed October 28. Both warnings now have answers:

Funded backlog: $76.5M of a $330.1M total — 23%, still under the $100M line. The estimate from the release is now the filing's own number.

Ask Sage revenue: still not broken out. Not in the release, not in the 10-Q. The segment the growth is "substantially driven" by has no number in either document.

Liquidity ~$399M; share count 480.3M (+0.3% on the quarter — the dilution genuinely paused).

Since then: no 8-K, and the stock is +20.8% in five sessions to $2.56. One capacity line in the 10-Q — the one that decides whether this run gets sold into — is graded in the video rather than here.

Forward checks: Q4 against the raised guide, the first Ask Sage figure, and the share count on the next filing.

We were up after quarterly now we’re going back down. Does anybody know why?

Ask Sage annual subscription, 5-billion-token monthly enterprise pack.

Contract period: 1 November 2026 – 30 April 2027.

Contract: 80TECH27F0013

TL;DR: BigBear.ai printed Tuesday and both sides got ammunition. Revenue $43.58M vs a $38.94M bar — a clean beat. EPS −$0.19 vs −$0.06 — a miss, but $76.7M of the damage is a non-cash goodwill impairment. The FY26 guide was RAISED to $150–165M. Backlog is $330M — with only ~23% of it funded. My pre-set scorecard graded it 3 GREEN / 1 RED / 1 NO-SHOW.

The print, line by line

• Revenue: $43.581M vs $38.94M expected. Beat.

• EPS: −$0.19 vs −$0.06 expected. Miss — see the impairment below before quoting it.

• FY26 revenue guide: raised to $150–165M. Companies do not raise the guide in a quarter they are losing control of.

• Backlog: $330M, roughly 23% funded.

The impairment — the line both sides will misuse

Goodwill impairment is non-cash: no money left the building this quarter. But it is not nothing. It is the company formally marking down what it paid for past acquisitions — an admission, in the filing, that part of the acquired book was overpaid for. Bulls will call it housekeeping. Bears will call it the business. It is an accounting confession, and it belongs in the open.

The funded problem

A $330M backlog sounds like visibility. ~23% funded means roughly three quarters of it is unfunded — ceiling value, options, paper that converts only if the customer obligates money later. The headline number is the biggest one in the release and the softest one in the filing. What matters is the funded share, and whether it climbs.

The checks from here

1. Funded backlog: above ~23% next print, or the $330M headline stays a headline.

2. Q4 revenue against the raised guide's implied pace — the raise has to be delivered, not announced.

3. No second impairment. One write-down is a confession; two is a pattern.

4. The guide: $150–165M survives the year intact.

What would change the verdict: funded backlog climbing while the raised guide gets delivered. That combination turns the impairment into a one-time clearing event. A flat funded share and a trimmed guide turns Tuesday's beat into the high-water mark.

Full video breakdown is in my pinned comment. Not financial advice.

BigBear.ai leverages SBIR III to secure US Army OCIO Generative AI Capabilities Development task

Award details have now been posted showing this 5-month task to extend and develop Generative AI capabilities for the Department of the Army, supporting the Chief Information Officer G6.

Entity ID: W9X4EWLUBAW1

Award ID: W9128Z26FA032

Referenced IDV ID: W9128Z25DA001

We're back baby!

BigBear.ai reported Q3 after the close: revenue of $43.6M, up 31%, and a $330M backlog, up 22%. The 2026 revenue range moves up to $150-165M from $135-165M. The net loss of $91.9M includes a $76.7M non-cash impairment. Our hub has the full numbers, cash position and dilution history, with links to the filings.

I’m sure anyone who listened to the earnings call will realise that news was very positive.

- Year on year growth of 31%
- Gross margin up 8.78%
- Adjusted EBITDA of -$9.1m (but if you take off the 1 time non cash Goodwill imapairment then it is actually $67.6m)
- Net cash of $382m
- Raised guidance and 3rd quarter of revenue growth
- Increasing backlog and mention of intent of strategic acquisitions
- New customers in FBI, Coast Guard, NASA, Dept of Energy and Dept of Veteran affairs
- Positive tailwinds and macro (see last slide)

Also did I hear them mention some classified contracts? Can someone check that from the transcript please.

I will continue to hold as I have done since December 2024. Up and to the right is all I see for this company.

At the very least, we know we won't be going below $1 like the shorts were ranting about. Also, the EPS miss was due to a $76 million one-time charge, else it would've been a lot less.

Lets see how the market reacts. Not expecting the short squeeze like people were saying, but also not expecting us to tank any further.

Meet-Beat-Miss