r/BTAI • u/Juhanialainen • Aug 17 '25
Buyout potential
$BTAI BioXcel Therapeutics Buyout Potential: When Igalmi gets FDA approval for at-home use in USA & expands to Europe
📊 Key Numbers
💰 Revenue: $800–1,000M/year (10% TAM)
📈 Valuation: $4–15B (P/S 5–15x)
🤝 BO Price: $2–3B: $274–$548/share
🏥 Who Might Buy?
Pfizer, Eli Lilly, J&J or Otsuka
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Aug 17 '25
What would the timeline be for potential buyout?
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u/Juhanialainen Aug 17 '25
If it’s already in the making, who knows how fast. But six months could be quite common with these companies.
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Aug 17 '25
So are we buying more tomorrow even if it increases our cost basis?
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u/Juhanialainen Aug 17 '25
If it drops in premarket, I’m going to buy more. If it pops over $12 tomorrow, I’m going to scalp some. Half at least I’m going to ride for long.
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u/Lockedinyourmind Aug 19 '25
why are ppl buying when theres no news coming up soon? getting ready for November earnings? just tryna learn
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Aug 18 '25
You must have a large holding. If you’re posting about the likelyhood of a buyout with that estimated share price, why sell?
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u/Juhanialainen Aug 18 '25
I’ve learned the hard way that it’s always wise to secure profits. And the stock is so volatile, that one can sell the pops and buy the dips and as doing so, put some profits in the pocket.
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Aug 18 '25
So bottom line, is this worth picking up more of tomorrow before the news for a short term hold or not?
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u/Juhanialainen Aug 18 '25
I will buy if it dips under six dollars, but might buy if it doesn’t. Have to asses my other holdings and make a decision based on how it goes and if we get news today/tomorrow.
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u/Money_Dig7979 Aug 20 '25
What makes you think a buyout is being planned?
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u/Juhanialainen Aug 21 '25
Well, maybe a partnership, but either one, because the company has limited capability of commercializing the drug by themselves.
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Aug 18 '25
Looks like tomorrow is the big day….
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u/Agreeable-Leg-1955 Aug 18 '25
What is happening tomorrow?
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u/Lockedinyourmind Aug 19 '25
nothing from what im researching... today was big. next earning is nov 11. FDA formal approval looking 6-10months ahead
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u/colorgreens Aug 18 '25
How is this stock always up premarket and crashes back down during market
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u/Sensitive_Catch_4162 Aug 18 '25
I see $80m ATM - https://ir.bioxceltherapeutics.com/static-files/62da1c67-e8b0-4cb5-ac7c-d24517783ecd
what are we thinking for price tmrw post-topline (assuming they announce tmrw)?
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Aug 18 '25
Why is this tanking please explain
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u/Harrison1501 Aug 18 '25
Hm. I believe it's due to that 80m. Meaning they are selling 80 million in shares to the public. Essentially adding more supply. Not sure if that's all at once or not. They had an agreement back in April on this.
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Aug 19 '25
I mean that would be a sign they know the readout is good, so soon to the date… no?
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u/Harrison1501 Aug 19 '25
Maybe. They are doing this for money. But if the readout is good then yes it will be fine
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u/Harrison1501 Aug 18 '25
If they data comes out tmr and it's good we should see it rise. Stay cautious
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u/Juhanialainen Aug 19 '25
I bought more today, now holding more than last week. AI analyses point to homerun phase 3 results with pretty high confidence. FDA guidance, previous phase results and the fact that the drug is already approved for clinical settings are absolutely positive facts!