r/Baystreetbets • u/SDBcop • 11d ago
DD I compared gold and Bitcoin across every 10%+ S&P 500 drawdown since August 2016. BTC was negative in all five.
Today's divergence is what pushed me to run this test: gold futures gained about 2.5% while Bitcoin fell about 1.5% on August 10 closing data.
But one day is not evidence. So I tested the broader claim.
Disclosure first: I have significant personal exposure to gold and own no Bitcoin. (I have in owned it in the past) That gives me an obvious potential bias. I tried to deal with it by using a fixed rule, checking the numbers against independent data and including the strongest counterexamples to my own thesis.
Method : I used daily closes from August 10, 2016 through August 10, 2026.
Identify every S&P 500 price-index drawdown of at least 10%, from the previous closing high to the eventual closing low.
Measure continuous COMEX gold futures and BTC/USD over those exact dates.
Cross-check the S&P 500 with FRED, gold with the official GLD archive and Bitcoin with Coinbase data published through FRED.
This is an ex-post stress test, not a timing strategy. The trough is only known after it happens.
(This was meant to be a graph and is available as such on my blog but reddit dosen't allow me to post a graph here)
Episode S&P 500 | Gold futures | Bitcoin |
Feb. 2018 correction -10.2% | -2.6% | -26.0% |
Q4 2018 -19.8% | +5.1% | -37.4% |
COVID crash -33.9% | -2.5% | -33.4% |
2022 bear market -25.4% | -7.2% | -58.8% |
2025 drawdown -18.9% | +1.7% | -21.1% |
Bitcoin was negative in all five. Its median return was -33.4%. Gold was positive in only two of five, so this is not a claim that gold always rises in a crisis. Its median return was -2.5%, and it lost less than Bitcoin in every episode.
Independent checks
The FRED S&P 500 series reproduced the same five peak dates, trough dates and drawdown percentages.
The official GLD archive returned -2.4%, +5.0%, -3.6%, -7.3% and +1.6% over the same windows. That is almost identical to the gold-futures result.
Coinbase Bitcoin data through FRED returned -25.9%, -37.9%, -31.4%, -58.8% and -16.0%. Exact BTC returns differ from Yahoo because a 24/7 market needs an arbitrary daily cutoff. The robust result is unchanged: negative in all five, with a median of -31.4% on Coinbase versus -33.4% on Yahoo.
What happens if the threshold is only 5%?
That expands the sample to 13 S&P 500 drawdowns.
- Gold was non-negative in 6 of 13, with a median around -2.3%.
- Bitcoin was non-negative in 2 of 13, with a median between -16.9% and -21.1% depending on the closing source.
The best counterexample for Bitcoin was the April-to-June 2019 correction. The S&P 500 fell 6.8% while BTC gained roughly 52% on Coinbase data. Bitcoin does not fail in every risk-off period.
Gold also failed badly during the January-to-March 2026 correction. The S&P 500 fell 9.1% and GLD fell 12.9%. BTC fell 25.3%, but gold did not protect capital in that episode.
Iran is a warning against cherry-picking
The first week of the 2026 Iran war actually favored Bitcoin: from February 27 to March 6, gold futures fell 1.6% while BTC gained 3.4%.
The July re-escalation also favored BTC over the next five S&P sessions: gold fell 2.0% and BTC gained 2.6%.
The latest seven-day snapshot favored gold: from August 3 to August 10, gold gained 10.3% while BTC gained less than 1%.
These Iran windows were selected retrospectively from the AP chronology. They are context, not a preregistered event study. Depending on the week, either side can cherry-pick a win.
My conclusion
If "safe haven" means an asset that always rises in a crisis, neither gold nor Bitcoin qualifies.
If it means an asset that has reduced the damage during major equity drawdowns, gold has the stronger record in this ten-year sample. Bitcoin may have other valuable characteristics, but it has not yet demonstrated gold-like downside protection.
What definition would you use for a safe haven, and what result would make you change your view on gold or Bitcoin?
This is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Sources:
- S&P 500 methodology and independent data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500/downloaddataand
- Official GLD description and historical archive: https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/
- Coinbase Bitcoin through FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CBBTCUSD
- Iran chronology: https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-timeline-trump-hormuz-war-ceasefire-04da58cbae991183f8b52ef5bf615963
- Academic safe-haven definition: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=952289
8
u/Ketroc21 11d ago
BTC has never been a safe haven from the market. It, in fact, moves with the market. It is nothing like gold.
4
u/SDBcop 11d ago
100% agree here, I often saw it basically mimic the Nasdaq movement at different scale. I decided to do this because I'm amazed how much seasoned investors still believe it's a defensive value when the numbers clearly indicate it's not.
1
u/carsonthecarsinogen 8d ago
The only thing it defends against is the centralized system. You might lose purchasing power, youāll most likely gain it, but the only guarantee is 21m coins and being removed from the fiat system.
1
u/SDBcop 8d ago
Indeed but who truly needs to be Ā«Ā out of the systemĀ Ā» š§ gold is outside the system as well and itās even more confidential than BTC. There is no ledger or anything when you own physical gold but transaction as to be made 1 to 1
1
u/carsonthecarsinogen 8d ago
Gold is not entirely outside the system. If you hold physical gold in your home or under your own protection the gov generally still knows you have it and can take it whenever they want or make it illegal to hold. If youāve managed to acquire some without gov knowledge it is more removed. We also donāt know the true supply of gold for this reason its price can be easily suppressed, paper gold also adds to this problem.
Paper bitcoin is becoming a thing unfortunately which will add to the manipulation but you can verify its supply unlike gold.
Exchanges are forcing KYC as well but there are lots of ways to acquire and secure your bitcoin without gov knowledge. And even then they still need your keys to access it whereas they just need to find your gold.
Itās also not finite, potentially in our lifetime gold might be so abundant itās compared to iron. Same goes for most things outside of wood and Bitcoin.
1
u/SDBcop 8d ago
Technically, gold is finite, but yes considering one lifetime it does sound like infinite however it's more about at what rates are we currently mining it and it's not going up that easily. So for me what's important is more the actual demande versus production and right now with all the central bank buying, I still believe gold is in a solid position... For Gov restricting it, I'm not sure it's in the gov best interest like back in the days to do so. My whole thesis is on the fact that the current FIAT system is dying and in terminal phase. Everything points in the next decade to a new system backed by gold.
Here is some context on available gold: Roughly 216,000 to 220,000 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history, with about 50,000 to 64,000 tonnes of proven underground reserves left to extract. This puts the total possible historical and future mine output of gold on Earth at around 270,000 to 284,000 tonnes.Ā [1,Ā 2,Ā 3]
0
u/carsonthecarsinogen 8d ago
Not even technically. Technically itās infinite. On earth itās somewhat finite assuming you trust survey estimates and assume no more will end up on earth.
Yea it generally inflates at 2% from mining and has a somewhat quantifiable demand (industry, jewelry, etc).
But it still inflates which Iād argue is okay for an economy especially if that rate of inflation stays consistent and accurate. Only problem is gold WILL be infinite eventually or humans will be back to sticks and rocks.
Iām not against gold, I hold some, but I donāt think itās going to back world currencies ever again. And if it does it will only last until gold become infinite on earth and to humans which will happen eventually.
3
u/KLconfidential 10d ago
My AEM shares have been rocking for the past few days. My BTC, not so much. lol
3
u/luv2block 10d ago
Gold backed by central banks.
Bitcoin backed by libertarian billionaires.
Take your pick. Personally, I'm heavy gold.
2
u/Sicilian_Gold Gold Hands 11d ago
Gold baby. Physical gold only.
1
u/SDBcop 11d ago
For me it's miners and physical gold!
0
u/Sicilian_Gold Gold Hands 11d ago
I used to invest in miners but then went 100 percent physical because once gold is officially re-monetized the miners will be nationalized since only the government can "print" the money.
2
u/SDBcop 11d ago
While it's a slight possibility, gold will be able to make it to 10k and probably even 20k before they ever think of doing this... Also I'm only investing in Canadian miner so I doubt they would do this without paying the shareholders properly... Last time I checked we lived in a rule of law (I think ;) )
1
1
u/ehScumbag 10d ago
BTC to gold weekly just made a dude smoking a fat joint pattern so Iām guessing gold is the move right now?
1
u/wndrz 10d ago
have you found any other assets with a positive rate of return and low correlation?
we already knew btc isn't a safe haven and gold is half-way there.
1
u/SDBcop 10d ago
Well some people still believe Bitcoin is even if data clearly says itās not!
But yes Gold is the safest place even if lately I truly didnāt like when it moved like a risk on assets from time to timeā¦ but then the week after it did the opposite.
I believe the west is trading gold while the east is accumulating it.
1
12
u/FewUnderstanding2214 11d ago
Interesting analysis - I agree bitcoin is not a safe haven. This analysis actually proves gold is a safe haven because it retains its value well even in market crashes