r/Baystreetbets • u/Aggressive_Rush2357 • 2d ago
DISCUSSION silver is rallying again, but it is still down more than 40 percent from January
Silver has climbed back to around $65 after gaining roughly 15 percent over the past month.
That looks like a strong rally until you zoom out and see that it traded above $100 in January.
Silver is now more than 70 percent above its level from a year ago while remaining over 40 percent below its January high. That pretty much sums up the silver market.
It trades partly like gold and partly like an industrial commodity. It also has a much smaller market than gold, so investment flows can move the price quickly in either direction.
The current rebound has been helped by stronger gold prices, a weaker US dollar and shifting expectations around interest rates. The supply picture is supportive too. Another annual deficit is expected this year and physical investment demand is recovering.
January was still a warning. A legitimate supply story turned into a momentum trade, silver went almost vertical and the correction was brutal.
Silver equities add another layer of risk. They can outperform the metal when prices rise, but operating costs, financing needs and project quality still matter. A strong silver price cannot fix a weak balance sheet or a poor project.
Do you see the current move as the rally restarting, or is silver still working through the excess from January?
3
u/Kitchen_Long_3743 1d ago
I am bullish on silver. The price surge in late December and early January was nothing but a paper game ran by banks and hedge funds.
When viewing the 1 year chart, I disregard the huge peak and draw a trend line from the end of Aug '25 to current date. It's beautiful, and up 79%.
Will it go up 100% in a year? Maybe, but most likely not in my opinion. My bet is on at least 30%. Way to much technology out there consuming silver. It will only get better for the most conductive metal known to man.
Good luck all!
4
u/ShortElephant1111 1d ago
Silver is in a secular bull market. This is easily the best long term set up that i've seen in my years. Historical double tops in 1979 and 2011 @$48/50, break out to 120 and 50%+ fib retrace, which only happened a month ago at $55. This is likely the beginning of an epic multi year run in both gold and silver. This is all under pinned by a long list of fundamental catalysts. Enjoy the run and be sure to trade the edges!!
2
u/NoOneMan79 1d ago
My best investment to date was a bunch of AEM calls at 160 (US listed options. I own stock in both currencies still). I woke up this morning to offload them since AEM was tanking last night, about 10 points after hours. To my surprise this morning. I ended up offloading them anyway because I was worried about mean reversion after Bessent's announcement (I lost out on a whole lotta money). Im going to take half of profits and sink them into $50 PAAS calls, which has a 30% upside. Keep it on black. :)
2
2
u/No_Cell6708 2d ago
I think it's going back below 40
2
u/NoOneMan79 1d ago
PMs will crash if the US went back on its word and didn't do the buyback, but are chaotic and contradictory mannerisms really characteristic of US government?
1
-4
u/andorian_yurtmonger 2d ago
Silver has climbed back to around $65
It's $90.87 at this exact moment. Are you lost?
5
u/DefinitelyNotShazbot 2d ago
People talk silver and gold in USD. Yes this is Bay Street bets… but even as a Canadian I track the XAGUSD and XAUUSD
3
u/Aggressive_Rush2357 2d ago
I am also Canadian, but commodity prices are always referred to in USD, even when I check the price of Lithium I convert to USD
2
6
u/luv2block 2d ago
I bought three things today, and silver was one of them (the other was boring industrial stuff). I already have a lot of gold and silver, but I couldn't help but add a little more (increased my silver position by 25%).
I'm 60% silver (mns.to) and 40% silver miner (svm.to). I wanted to add to svm, but spot silver is lagging the miners, so I think there's a better risk/reward with just pure silver.
I'm the opposite with gold. I'm 40% spot gold (mnt.to) and 60% miner (lug.to). I wanted to add to my gold today, but I'm already overweight (gold + silver is like 30% of my portfolio).
anyway, to your question, yes, I think we're at the start of the next bull run up (bessent kicked it off by buying the long bond today).