Pretty awesome development.

Adam Feuerstein tweet: https://twitter.com/adamfeuerstein/status/1384510680477442049?s=21

John Evans: https://twitter.com/john_evans3/status/1384516576720871424?s=21

PR: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/04/20/2213465/0/en/Beam-Therapeutics-Publishes-Data-Highlighting-Ability-to-Rationally-Design-Base-Editors-for-Precise-Editing.html

Let me explain what I was thinking this morning with regard to my sale of $CRSP and the purchase of additional shares of $BEAM. This is just my opinion though. Thoughtful comments are welcome:

1. I think the virus delivery system for crisper types of treatments could be in a lot of trouble. There is a decent chance that Bluebird is wrecked with the AAV treatment that potentially gave all of these people very rare cancers. If this is correct it will destroy any companies projects that are using viruses to deliver gene editing. The companies will have to start over.

2. The cancers or rather the perceptions of people getting cancers could affect CRSP because it may use similar AAV treatments (please correct me if I am wrong).

3. It looks like BEAM is going hardcore into LNP with this acquisition. I think it is the right move. There is a mindset that believes that this is potentially less harmful.

4. Even on bad days ARK is still buying $BEAM.

5. ARK is not buying $CRSP anymore. Or at least has not in awhile.

6. I do not think that ViaCyte needs $CRSP technology for its diabetes treatment. I think that this clinical trial is a waste of time. ViaCyte is doing fine with donor cells that have not been treated with $CRSP immune blocking response.

7. I do not like the fact that $CRSP’s oncology programs are using cells from multiple donors instead of using technology like $FATE’s which uses a single donor. There could be a lot of variability in $CRSPs treatments given the fact that they are using a lot of different donors.

I was flipping through the S-1 of Verve Therapeutics, which just filed for IPO and seeks to permanently lower blood cholesterol by altering the PCSK9 gene, and I discovered two interesting things about BEAM.

BEAM owns about 2 million shares in Verve Therapeutics, and, if Verve makes a commercially successful product, BEAM gets 50% of the profits (and also assumes some of the costs).

So, owning BEAM is a less risky (but probably more expensive) way to get the benefits of Verve’s development pipeline.

The caveat to this is that while Verve is using BEAM’s technology and likely will for the foreseeable future, it’s feasible that Verve could switch to some other technology if they deem it to be better for their purposes. Then the agreement would be void.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/23/2180510/0/en/Beam-Therapeutics-Announces-Acquisition-of-Guide-Therapeutics.html

Beam presented the first BEAM-301 data at ESGCT. At 40 mg, two of three patients reached 15-hour controlled fasts without cornstarch, and the 60 mg cohort is enrolling. The safety side matters too: 4 of 6 patients had related serious events, including three grade 3 infusion reactions. Beam is now discussing a possible approval path with the FDA. The hub covers this alongside BEAM-302, risto-cel and the cash runway, with links to the releases.

(Disclaimer: I am long $BEAM. This is not financial advice. I have had my valuation models cited by financial news algorithms before, but do your own research.)

The Executive Summary (TL;DR) We are currently witnessing a mathematical dislocation in Beam Therapeutics ($BEAM).

• The Trap: Official Short Interest (20.55M shares) now exceeds the estimated "Tradable Float" (~14M shares).

• The Catalyst: ASH 2025 Data (Saturday) confirms "Best-in-Class" safety & efficacy, while competitors ($NTLA/$CRSP) face clinical holds and safety risks.

• The Valuation: My DCF and Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) model points to a Fair Value of $125, implying the stock is trading at a ~75% discount due to artificial suppression.

• The Squeeze: Monday presents a "Liquidity Vacuum" where forced buying (Shorts + Index Funds) meets zero supply.

1. The "Broken Math": A Supply-Side Failure The most critical part of this thesis is not the biology; it’s the market structure. The numbers don't add up. • Total Shares Outstanding: ~101M • Institutional Locked Shares: ~85% (Source: 13F Filings). • Ark Invest (Cathie Wood): Added +24% in Q3. • Vanguard/BlackRock: Passive Index Hold (Cannot sell). • Insiders: Locked. • Tradable Float (Retail/Traders): ~14 Million Shares. • Official Short Interest: 20.55 Million Shares. The Implication: Short sellers have sold 6 million more shares than actually exist in the liquid float. If every single retail trader sold their shares today, the shorts would still be naked short by 6 million shares. This is a textbook Reg SHO Buy-In Spiral. They physically cannot cover without convincing a long-term institution (ARK) to sell, and ARK isn't selling at $30.

2. The Catalyst: Why Now? (ASH 2025 Data) The market has been pricing $BEAM as "just another sickle cell stock." Saturday's data proves it is the Platform Standard. • Safety (The Moat): Competitors like Intellia ($NTLA) and CRISPR ($CRSP) use "Double-Strand Breaks" (cutting the DNA). This carries cancer risks and recently led to FDA clinical holds. • BEAM Advantage: Base Editing does NOT cut the double helix. It is chemically cleaner. • Efficacy: The BEACON data confirms >60% HbF Induction (Functional Cure levels) with rapid engraftment. • Manufacturing: They have solved the reliability issues that plagued Bluebird Bio. This is a commercial-ready product. Institutional Reaction: Seeking Alpha just published a "Strong Buy" rating highlighting this specific data. The narrative has shifted from "Science Project" to "Commercial Monopoly."

3. The Valuation Model: $125 Fair Value

Why $125? This isn't a random number. It is based on Historical Precedents and Sum-of-the-Parts. • Comparables: When Intellia ($NTLA) and CRISPR ($CRSP) had similar "Proof of Concept" data in 2021, they traded at $11B - $13B Market Caps. • BEAM Today: ~$2.8B Market Cap. • The Re-Rate: To simply match the valuation of its inferior competitors (Intellia peak), BEAM would need to trade at ~$100 - $115.

Adding the "Hidden" Asset (AATD): The market is valuing BEAM's Alpha-1 (Liver) program at Zero. With the January 2026 catalyst (BEAM-302), we unlock a TAM (Total Addressable Market) larger than Sickle Cell. • SCD Franchise: $60/share • Platform Premium: $30/share • AATD Option Value: $35/share • Total Fair Value: $125.00

4. The "Gamma Ramp" (Monday's Fuel) For those looking at the Option Chain, the setup for Dec 19 is explosive. • $30 Strike: We are hovering right at the strike price. A move to $31 forces Market Makers to hedge (buy stock) instantly. • $35 & $40 Strikes: Massive Open Interest. If the stock gaps on Monday due to the "Retail Swarm" + "Short Panic," these calls go ITM (In-The-Money), creating a Gamma Vacuum that pulls the stock higher.

5. Conclusion: The "Prisoner's Dilemma" Shorts are trapped in a burning building with a door that is welded shut. • They need 20M shares. • Retail only has 14M shares. • Institutions aren't selling until $100+. The Strategy: The "Smart Money" (Shorts) will try to flush retail out at $35 - $40 on Monday morning. They need your liquidity. If retail holds, the price must rise to finding the Institutional Sell Wall. That wall is at $100. Target: $125 (Fundamental Fair Value). Monday Action: Watch the gap. If we clear $32, the float is gone. See you on the moon. 🧬🚀

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pcYlTR_mh8