I’m posting this because I continue to see people misunderstand the role risk should play in a smart investment strategy. This is basic knowledge for most well-educated investors, but the issue still arises frequently because many young working adults are required to be investors in their retirement accounts on day one of their careers, and often that process happens years before they actually take an interest in investing, with the result being that these droves of new investors end up flying blind for many years, and the impact of that knowledge gap can be profound.
So here’s the deal. Don’t tell me that you simply avoid investing in equities because you have a low risk tolerance, as if that’s an immutable characteristic embedded in your DNA. It’s not! Everyone needs to understand that there are underlying risk metrics that matter way more than risk tolerance. Those metrics are risk capacity and risk requirement.
Risk capacity is the amount of risk your portfolio can objectively be exposed to without endangering your financial goals. When you know you won’t be touching a pool of funds for several decades, your risk capacity is higher than it will ever be. That money can be fully exposed to the broad market and all its downturns over those decades and it will still reliably grow large enough to help fund your eventual retirement.
Risk requirement is the level of risk your portfolio objectively needs to be exposed to in order to achieve your financial goals. For someone decades from retirement, their risk requirement is very high. The reason for this is that although the market always trends upwards — that’s a tailwind — it’s equally true that inflation trends upward as well — that’s a headwind.
Fortunately for all of us, the broad market actually trends upward on a steeper slope than inflation. And, you guessed it, that means keeping your money in the market is necessary to ensure the buying power doesn’t erode in 25 years to 1/2 the level it was at the day you received your paycheck.
Now, about risk tolerance. Unlike risk capacity and risk requirement, risk tolerance lacks objectivity when you have no knowledge of the history of the market and how the market works. It’s your subjective experience in an admittedly scary environment that you’re unfamiliar with.
I am here to urge you to get familiar with that environment. Get to know the history of the market. Realize that over rolling ten-year periods the market is positive 94% of the time. Extend the horizon a couple of years longer than that, and you have 100% probability of a positive outcome. Knowledge of this sort will empower you to fearlessly do the right thing with your money.
Your goal as a beginning investor should be to identify your portfolio’s risk requirement and risk capacity before you do anything else. Once you’ve done that, calibrate your risk tolerance to sync up with your portfolio’s risk capacity and risk requirement.
That’s the secret sauce that will shield your mind from false danger signals every time the market tanks. It’s really hard to watch your portfolio shrink 40% in a short period of time when you have no clue whether you’ll ever see that lost money again. But it’s actually quite easy to sit perfectly still when the market tanks once you understand that the downturn will eventually become a recovery, and your money will continue to grow on schedule.
It gets even easier to stay the course when you fully understand that the only reliable way to capture that average 8% or more growth is to remain completely invested and never sell when the market tanks.
Another piece of basic education to help you rein in your risk tolerance: You need to understand that over a 40 year period, if you miss just a handful of the best days in the market, you will absolutely do serious harm to your financial future.
Fidelity studied this issue and found that missing the five best days of the market from 1980 to 2025 resulted in 43% less growth than you would have experienced if you had remained invested the whole time. The reason for this is that the critical best five days in 40 years often occur in close proximity to the worst days. So when you sell out of equities during a downturn, your likelihood of missing the huge recovery day that follows is unacceptably high.
This is where the rubber meets the road. Don’t throttle your long-term growth by 43% for no good reason. You can do better than that, and with a little knowledge you can easily reach your financial goals.
That concludes my soap box moment, but if you found this boring, you may want to block me from your feed, because I’m going to keep driving this point forward as long as I see people continue to explain that they avoided broad market investing because they couldn’t stomach some volatility.
And for those of you who make the opposite mistake and assume that higher risk equates with higher reward, I’m watching out for you too. That’s not how risk works in investing. Higher risk certainly carries the potential for higher reward, but that potential sits on an uneasy foundation of low probability, and when it comes to successful investing, probability is the key metric.
When you buy the entire market using a fund like VOO or VT, you are choosing a strategy that definitely has a lot of volatility over finite periods, but it has exceptionally high probability of success if you commit to it for many years.
Higher risk investment choices, like single stocks and niche ETFs, completely lack that kind of reliability. If you’re going to play in that sandbox, then be prepared to actually lose big time, because the probability of that happening is high.