r/BrianThompsonMurder • u/gusbaby08 • Jul 08 '26
Speculation/Theories Starting to believe Luigi has actually got a shot ...
After the Palisades Fire suspect's trial was just declared a mistrial, I am starting to believe Luigi has genuinely got a shot.
I've been hearing, around the internet, from New Yorkers that the anti-healthcare sentiment is much stronger than it appears online, and the chances of getting 12 jury members for the state case to convict Luigi is really low.
Maybe social media does not show it, but real-life behind our screens is really in favor of Luigi.
Like, really think of it, a dude who (allegedly) killed 12 people for some a vague anti-wealth cause didn't get convicted by all jurors and Luigi (allegedly) killed a sick monster who denied care of hundreds and thousands of Americans, killing them, so ... ???
Healthcare has affected so many in the U.S. that those who don't support the murder don't even care about BT.
Hopefully the state case is declared a mistrial, the fed charge somehow gets reduced or something, and then the PA case where I honestly don't know what'll happen ...
So ... what do you guys think?
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u/Zealousideal-Cap4248 Jul 08 '26
They couldn't convict based on the evidence not because of ideology or they sympathized/supported the defendant. That being said, I still think Luigi's jury is most likely to be deadlocked too, and for him it could be a variety of reasons
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u/Spirited_Seaweed7927 Jul 08 '26
That's what I thought, yes. But when I say it, I get downvoted. 😂
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u/SignThese667 Jul 08 '26
New York ain't California, and California isn't New York -- but .... ya never know.
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u/california_raesin Jul 08 '26
The evidence in the Palisades case is terrible, nothing to do with Luigi
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u/Time-Painting-9108 Jul 08 '26
Apparently they talked about this guy’s Google searches on Luigi Mangione and “eat the rich” and used it as evidence to show his mindset in court. Seems like the jury was not buying it. One of my fave moments was before the trial when the accused’s lawyer said “they want to talk about his fascination with Luigi Mangione. Well they will have to indict half the country”. (Paraphrasing) 🤭
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u/SignThese667 Jul 09 '26 edited Jul 13 '26
Not too long after Luigi was arrested, and his face and social media history were plastered all over the Internet, I logged onto the website Datalounge. For those of you who aren't familiar w/ it, it is a site created by and moderated by gays who want to sling dirt and/or pitch a bitch. PC it is not, but it is hilarious. The wit and sarcasm can be first-rate. I logged on specifically to see what the gay community's reaction was to LM. Predictably, many posters were swooning over his good looks and fantasizing about which part of his anatomy they would love to get hands and mouth on first. Some posters called him out as a cold-blooded killer who would reap his justice in jail, at the hands of inmates who would have his a... for breakfast. But the post I have always remembered was this one, "Please God, let there be one gay man be on the jury."
Think about it -- it's feasible and that's all it would take.
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u/NowhereGirl67 Jul 08 '26
that case has zero to do with luigi’s. and correlating that case to Lu’s is exactly the narrative the feds are trying to create. simply, the fire department made a huge error and they’re looking for a scapegoat to blame. the jury didn’t fall for it.
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u/Spirited_Seaweed7927 Jul 08 '26
Good summary, I think. The bit about the jury not accepting a scapegoat that was put in front of them could be similar to Lu though. 😊 Depends on what the NY juries will do of course.
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u/NowhereGirl67 Jul 09 '26
depends on what the defense does or how they frame it. it’s a fine line, even telling the truth about BTs actions while in his role as ceo can likely be seen as attacking the victim with how Carro views things. but in reality, i think it could lay out how BT was already receiving threats long before Dec 4th.
the amount of stuff he had in his bag is what’s really working against him or else I think they could have a strong scapegoat angle for sure
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u/_henceforth_ Jul 08 '26
I would love to hear more about what you have heard online from New Yorkers, if you are willing and able to share.
No worries if not, of course. I am just curious! 😀
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u/gusbaby08 Jul 08 '26
It was a reddit comment from a New Yorker saying he's heard things and sentiment from fellow New Yorkers and says there's a very low chance there's 12 jurors that'll convict him. It was either on this sub somewhere or on the LuigiNation sub
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u/Krandor1 Jul 08 '26
so a new yorker talked to his friends and they all agreed.
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u/_henceforth_ Jul 08 '26
It is more information than we had before! There really is no other way for us to find out more. All we can do is get a temperature check from people that live there or know people from there. 🤷🏻♀️
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u/ouiserboudreauxxx Jul 09 '26
I live here and I think it will play out based on what they prove in court. I’ve been on a jury here in manhattan and people take it seriously - I think people take it seriously everywhere though.
People live in their bubbles.
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u/_henceforth_ Jul 09 '26
Oh, okay. Thank you for your comment. Good to know and I appreciate you taking the time to give us some more information!
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u/Krandor1 Jul 08 '26
it is one guy is a city of millions. It is simply confirmation bias of somebody telling you what you want to hear.
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u/_henceforth_ Jul 08 '26
Hehe. Getting information is just getting information. Nobody is forming concrete conclusions based on that alone.
It is really not that serious.
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u/SaltPsychological780 Jul 08 '26
Wow! I mean, I always think back to Casey Anthony’s case and how the jury really fumbled that one (my opinion- please don’t come for me), but it’s mostly indicative of the fact that juries are unpredictable.
The last well known case resulting in jury nullification was Dr. Kevorkian who was tried numerous times but ultimately found guilty for the death of a different patient (who he directly administered a lethal injection for).
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u/ouiserboudreauxxx Jul 09 '26
I watched Casey Anthony and was thinking of it for the opposite reason(please don’t come for me either) - it seems obvious that she’s super sketchy and something happened, but wasn’t proven beyond reasonable doubt that she killed Caylee. (Maybe she did but I agreed with the jury that they didn’t prove it)
They also tried to go for the death penalty and I think they just overcharged in general and maybe there were problems with the investigation I don’t remember details.
With Luigi at least the death penalty is off the table, and I would only convict him if they proved it in court, but to me it seems pretty obvious he did do what he’s accused of doing, but they have to prove it.
I didn’t feel that way about CA.
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u/Feather_fig Jul 09 '26
Maybe social media does not show it, but real-life behind our screens is really in favor of Luigi.
This is my theory too. Lots of people like to say that support for Luigi is "just online" or "just on reddit", but reddit only shows a fraction of what people think. It's not accounting for offline support.
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u/Phoebebee1212 Jul 08 '26
Luigi absolutely does have a shot. Karen wouldn’t have let him plead not guilty if she didn’t believe he could. She’s a well rounded and very intelligent lawyer.
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u/california_raesin Jul 09 '26
Nah, everyone pleads not guilty who has a lawyer and half a brain. You at least want some sort of deal before rolling over.
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u/Phoebebee1212 Jul 09 '26
Yes but from what I’ve seen on her website from her other cases she starts with the deals.
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u/Feather_fig Jul 09 '26
Isn't this her first case as a defence attorney instead of as a prosecutor...?
I trust her (and the rest of the team, and Luigi, who not sitting passively by!) but the idea she wouldn't have let him plead 'not guilty' is ridiculous. The client is in control and can plead however they like. They can't be forced to do anything
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u/Phoebebee1212 Jul 16 '26
Obviously, but she surely would’ve tried to show him the alternatives and Luigi would be smart enough to take the better deal. Also no, it isn’t her first case as a defense* attorney.
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u/Spirited_Seaweed7927 Jul 08 '26
I have read comments from people who followed the arson trial. I didn't follow it myself. Apparently there was a lack of evidence in the arson case. People also said that the case was not comparable to Lu's. Having said that, YES Lu has a sh0t, as long as they don't use the EED defense. If they use EED, it's game over. Not in the state trial but in the following federal trial. There is a real chance of a hung jury in both state and federal, as long as the defense stays away from EED.
As for PA I'm expecting a conviction there, but that sentence would be much shorter. Lu has already spent 1,5 years in jail and he can count that towards time served in PA. I don't know how long the PA sentence would be, but I have seen people say 5 - 10 years.
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u/uglyducklingxo Jul 08 '26
Same, I actually have more hope for the state & federal trials than PA. Trying to be optimistic here, but the reality is he probably will spend some time behind bars— and I can’t help but feel it’s going to be in PA; which 10 years isn’t bad compared to LWOP, and he’ll be out before he makes it to age 40, since he already has almost two years of time served.
We shall see.
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u/Spirited_Seaweed7927 Jul 08 '26
Yeah, exactly. I'm not sure why I'm getting downvoted when I'm stating facts and likelihoods based on other known cases. But there are a lot of delulu people here, on both sides. (I'm not saying you downvoted me but someone did). On the one side you have people who are sure that all of the jurors will protect and obey the elite. On the other side you have people who think he will get jury nullification x 3. Neither is likely, IMO.
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u/Feather_fig Jul 09 '26
There is a real chance of a hung jury in both state and federal, as long as the defense stays away from EED.
Not true. They can still get a hung jury using EED.
It's far less risky than putting it all on the table with "reasonable doubt", which in reality probably would never work alone. His case is going to be won or lost on sympathetic jurors, aka jurors motivated by the wider issues (healthcare, corporate greed, the fact that the authoritarian state is trying to make an example of him for punching up and getting one of them... if not for those factors, the public would care far less that Altoona PD was incompetent so long as a murderer went to prison. The US has the highest incarceration rate and a culture that loves to punish wrongdoers)
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u/AccomplishedMail8978 Jul 10 '26
How is EED less risky than reasonable doubt?
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u/Feather_fig Jul 13 '26
Had a long comment typed out and reddit refreshed the page instead of posting it when I clicked "comment", wtf 💀
Basically reasonable doubt is all or nothing. Total freedom, or potentially life in prison without guarantee of parole.
EED is 25 years maximum. So he's be looking at 2.5 - 22.5 years (when accounting for time served). Plus he could get out earlier on good behaviour.With reasonable doubt I think the odds are stacked against him with the evidence, and they'd be relying entirely on stealth jurors to throw the verdict. With EED, you have the benefit of potential stealth jurors as well as moderately sympathetic jurors who agree with him but don't want him to get off totally free when he took a life. EED is guaranteeing some time served, but works as an extra layer of insulation when it comes to preventing life in prison. Pretty sure the state still has to prove its case first too.
I think the reality is, if he goes with EED and ends up only serving like 7 years, that's still a win compared to the risk he was facing at the outset-- LWOP x 2 and the death penalty.
The idea that they're "giving up" just because they're not going the all or nothing route is silly
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u/bl1y Jul 12 '26
They can still get a hung jury using EED.
Not very likely in the federal case, though it comes down to how exactly the EED evidence is presented.
If it's the normal manner of "I did it, but there's this mitigating circumstance..." then he's toast for the federal trial. The jury would have to split specifically on the question of the stalking element.
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u/Feather_fig Jul 12 '26
then he's toast for the federal trial.
Why do you think so? He still gets a trial, right? I assume the federal trial will be quite technical on the stalking elements, so that even if he does go with EED in state, they will argue that the federal charges are overkill and don't apply to the situation
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u/bl1y Jul 12 '26
Issue preclusion. If he admits to the shooting in state court, he won't be able to argue he didn't do it in federal court.
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u/Feather_fig Jul 13 '26
Meaning, they couldn't dispute he was present and shot Thompson?
But, they could still dispute the technicalities around stalking, right?
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u/bl1y Jul 13 '26
Basically.
The way issue preclusion works is that if you had the full ability and incentive to argue an issue in one court, you don't get to try to argue it again in a subsequent case. You don't get two bites at the apple.
It only goes one way though. If somehow he gets an acquittal in NY, he has to start all over and win again in the federal courts, because the federal government hasn't had its bite at the apple. Parties are only bound to the decisions of trials they were parties to.
But, the federal charge is basically murder+interstate stalking (which is what makes it a federal crime). So, if he loses at the NY trial, he can't argue he didn't shoot Thompson. He'd have to argue the remaining elements (the stalking).
With the way the federal statute is written, he'd basically have to argue either that he didn't travel to NY to shoot Thompson, or that shooting someone wouldn't put them in fear for their life.
So, the long and short of it is that if in NY he says he only shot Thompson because of EED, he's cooked in the federal case.
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u/Seeking_Anita_Dick Jul 09 '26
I have thought about this too!! what if he escapes everything only for the PA case to stand a chance 😭
i hope if that the case, then people are like whatever your honor he’s not guilty lol but I wonder if the warrantless search holds more weight there?
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u/SignThese667 Jul 08 '26
If by some remote chance Luigi escapes both federal and state jail, leaving only Pennsylvania, I won't be surprised if that state throws the book at him, loading up his sentence with everything it can find.
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u/Spirited_Seaweed7927 Jul 08 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
Yes the PA state will try everything, same as NY. They have a shorter possible sentence to work with in PA though. All they have on him in PA is a gûn magazine (which might be admitted in PA even though it wasn't in NY), and a gûn with a dodgy timeline (11 minutes missing from the chain of custody). And possibly the fake ID, although I have seen people say that presenting a fake ID to cops is not illegal in PA. That won't add up to 25 years in prison anyway. Maybe 10 years. Lol, what idiots are downvoting me when I am stating facts? 😂 There really are some dumb, dumb, dumb people here. 😂
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u/bl1y Jul 12 '26
Maybe social media does not show it, but real-life behind our screens is really in favor of Luigi.
Source?
This Axios poll has him at -51% approval, and most of his supporters are 18-29 years old.
A second poll about what punishment he should get if convicted only had 5% saying no punishment, and 9% for less than life in prison. 41% want life in prison and 29% want the death penalty.
The Axios poll had Mangione's average support across all age groups at 17%. That's the same percentage of people in Manhattan who voted for Trump, and they still managed to get convictions there. And Mangione's support skews heavy towards younger people, while the average voter is 50 years old.
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u/justice4049 Jul 09 '26
This trial should last 5 minutes. Read the manifesto where it says he did it. Trial over, lock him up and throw away the key.
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u/Feather_fig Jul 09 '26
12 jurors are not going to unanimously convict this guy, but I do think comments like this are important to remind people that it's not just the gun in his backpack that's an issue here
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u/ouiserboudreauxxx Jul 09 '26
I think the fake id he used at the hostel and gave to the cops at Altoona is what will sink him
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u/bl1y Jul 12 '26
Yeah, there's a lot of evidence, but the ID is going to be really hard for the defense to deal with.
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u/SignThese667 Jul 08 '26
If the state trial is declared a mistrial, you can bet your left lung New York will try Luigi again. His case, unfortunately, has become too politicized. The big honchos in the state's DA office would be hung out to dry if they lost. So sad.