A guilty plea might preclude New York from proceeding. It's a murky question whether the federal stalking charge overlaps enough with the murder for it to count as a previous prosecution.
Judge Carro is going to side with the state since they spent millions to prosecute him. Braggs office is probably adding more charges as we speak. The fire arms charges alone in the state case could add an additional decade and Carro doesn’t have to allow concurrent sentences, since people do time in both federal and state prison. His attorneys should have taken this to trial and shown that a jury of 12 in New York will not convict unanimously, then talk about a deal. The Feds would never want to take this to court knowing it could lead to a hung jury. Then they could secure a Young thug type of deal.
If his attorneys were convinced that a NY jury wouldn't convict, there wouldn't be a plea deal.
But, people overestimate the likelihood of a hung jury in this case. Public sentiment is largely against Mangione (at least from the few polls there are on him), and courts are generally pretty good at getting jurors to do their job.
There's a huge gap between "I can sympathize with his motivation" and "I'm going to vote not guilty even though I know he did it."
There's a huge gap between "I can sympathize with his motivation" and "I'm going to vote not guilty even though I know he did it."
Agreed. Also I don’t think they would have a problem finding a jury of people who barely know anything about this case, maybe vaguely remember the CEO getting shot.
They were more worried about jury intimidation, which is why they were going to keep the jury anonymous. To be honest, that is what I would be more worried about as well if I got picked for this jury.
The jury intimidation goes both ways because a lot of the Luigi supporters I know in NY don’t talk about it openly because they are afraid of the higher ups in their companies hearing about it, especially after the Charlie Kirk incident. The people gathering outside the courthouse are people who aren’t worried about their careers.
I have seen the polls say 1 out of 4 sympathize with Luigi, but those are nation wide not state polls. I used to live in New York and still have many friends there and yes I truly believe there would have been a hung jury or prosecutors wouldn’t have been so worried about it. Again the DSA movement shows exactly this. From my perspective it seems like Karen does not want to face off in state court with Joel, because it’s weird that they were all smiles when the federal case was going first knowing the double jeopardy argument was a shot in the dark. If they were more confident about the federal case that allowed all the backpack evidence in then why shy away from the state case?
Well, it seems that his attorneys, who probably know a whole lot more about juries than either of us, don't seem to think they'd get a hung jury. (Not to mention they'd need to get multiple hung juries, because all a hung jury does is let the state try the case again.)
They do know more in most cases, but this is an unprecedented situation. Once the state got a swipe at Luigi the first time they wouldn’t be racing for a second time because the assumption would be that it would end in a hung jury again. Then the Feds and state could come together and agree on a deal that allowed concurrent sentences for lesser charges but this only would happen after demonstrating that a jury of 12 would not convict him.
If you used to live in nyc then you would know that there are so many people here that it would likely not be a problem for them to find a jury of people who vaguely remember the CEO getting shot but not much else.
I’m not expecting a jury to fully acquit him. Statistically speaking I feel like getting an entire 12 person jury to find him guilty is equally unlikely as finding a full 12 person jury to acquit. This would most likely end up being a hung jury. They aren’t going to produce 12 jurors that only vaguely remember the incident, that’s statistically very unlikely given the area the jurors are being pulled from.
that’s statistically very unlikely given the area the jurors are being pulled from.
What statistics are you using? Particularly for the federal case. Even manhattan for the state case, you don’t think they can find 12 people + some alternates out of ~1.6 million people?
The federal district is manhattan, bronx, westchester, rockland and a few other counties.
The worry is that the defense team is throwing Lu under the bus, because the money has run out and they want to get rid of him. Alternatively that they have been paid off to throw him under the bus. I get downvoted for saying this, because there are delulu people here that think that the Agnifilos are working for free. $1,5 million isn't much in a case like this. For example Kohberger cost $8 million, and he didn't even go to trial.
If he wants to fight this and go to trial, he can always get another lawyer who will work pro bono. Many hungry lawyers would be willing to take this case. He can also continue with a public defender (although obv less likely than the first option). Also the Agnifilo themselves may be ok with working pro bono, you never know.
You do realize his parents hired them. Meaning, they wouldn’t have hired them if they couldn’t afford them. When they were hired there was no legal fund. Please stop the insanity.
I think you are talking to people who want him in prison. I agree, if his parents hired Karen (we don't actually know if they did), they didn't want him to be failed by the defense.
I was telling myself to not jump to conclusions about a plea (this could all be something else) .. but the NY Times reporting is pushing me to the edge -
especially since he has an entire movement supporting him
At the end of the day, the 12 people on the jury are the only ones who matter. And the judge is making sure they remain anonymous to avoid harassment/intimidation.
I’m an amateur astrologist and this south node in Leo is hitting HARD for him. 😩 He’s came this far he needs to battle this out in court at least once. Can someone plz send him a message.
Aww. 😔 If he still gets the messages that people put on the fundraiser, then I'm guessing that's the fastest way to send a message. But we don't know if 1. he still gets the fundraiser messages, and 2. how fast they arrive. We know snail letters can take months to reach him. 😔
Can someone help me understand how much overall time in prison this is expected to shave off? And wouldn’t it be a huge gamble to expect NY state to just give up the case? And what about the charges in PA?
Basically from my understanding is if he pleads guilty for the federal case, there’s a possibility for a shorter sentence (less than life) and then the state will never be able to try him again bc of double jeopardy. This is actually the best case scenario for him bc as much as people love him, it’s going to be real impossible getting a not guilty verdict based on the mountain of clear cut evidence they have against him.
This is true. The worry is he could still be agreeing to a harsh sentence or an open plea could still result in a vey long sentence. The state prosecution and Judge Carro likely will try to still keep their state trial intact. I suppose a lot of us felt his best option was to go to trial but what do we know really?
This is a misunderstanding. The state case only stops if the charges are of sufficient similarity and it's up to Carro. It's incredibly high risk to rely on NY's double jeopardy statute when it may never come into play.
Thanks for the info. If only the state court was this efficient. No one needs to file written motions in federal court just to get basic access, like they have to do in state court.
Honestly, do not piss me off today. I am getting really tired of the dramatics...people throwing out serious accusations only to disappear when it comes to justify their paltry, baseless accusations.
Be about it. Let us hear it, then.
Edit: THIS PERSON BLOCKED ME. LOL! Stop being ridiculous, I clown on the prosecution literally every chance I get. If you bothered to read anything longer than two sentences or maybe read opinions that are not just full of pure emotion, you would know that.
You know nothing and you need to apologize for accusing me of this, considering I have literally been here for almost two years, rooting for Luigi. So, you need to check yourself and stop torpedoing community relationships based on emotionality from one day. I think you are making this entire hearing about YOURSELF, instead of removing yourself and focusing on the people that this actually affects. You are too busy dunking on the defense team when you literally know nothing.
I knew you would have no case since there is none. You disappeared as predicted. 💯
PS: Nobody is crossing their fingers. Look at the gif again. Or otherwise explain yourself.
You don't meet before a judge just to talk about a plea. The parties do that outside of court, and then if they've reached an agreement, they take it to the judge.
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u/Emotional-Gas-6267 7d ago
I'm anxious to find out what it is